Antepost
The Basics
The South course at Torrey Pines hosts the US Open for the first time since 2008. Many of the competitiors will be familiar with the course as it is the host course for the Farmers Insurance Open on the PGA Tour. The course was renovated in 2019 by Rees Jones in preparation for this event.
In an event known for the thickest rough it would have been unthinkable a few years ago to predict the last five winners of the US Open would be Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka (twice), Gary Woodland and Bryson DeChambeau - players not known for their driving accuracy. However, 'bomb and gouge' has become the order of the day and length is a definite advantage.
2008 Recap
Torrey Pines last hosted the US Open in 2008 and it was memorable. Tiger Woods played with two stress fractures and a torn ACL in his left knee yet somehow willed his way to victory. Coming down the 72nd hole, he holed a clutch 12ft birdie putt to get into an 18 hole playoff with Rocco Mediate. It was a similar story during the playoff as Tiger again birdied the last to force a sudden death playoff. A par at the 7th hole was enough for Tiger to finally prevail and claim his 14th Major.
Woods and Mediate were the only two players to finish under par for the tournament. Four of the top eight were Europeans and the other four were from the USA.
Trends
Age
The US Open has been a younger man's Major in recent times with the last 12 winners being 35 or less on the day they lifted the trophy. Of those 12, 11 were under 32.
Major Virgins
It has also been an event which has favoured first time Major winners in recent years with 9 of the past 12 claiming their first Major. However, it's not an event to record your first ever win in America - only one winner from the past 12 did not have a previous PGA Tour title.
US Open Exposure
As with the Open Championship, prior experience of playing in a US Open is essential. In the last 11 years only one player has won a US Open without previously having a top-25 finish, and every winner in the last 11 years has made at least one previous US Open appearance.
World Ranking
Three of the top 5 were ranked inside the top 30 in the world when the US Open was last played at Torrey Pines. The other two players had previously won on the PGA Tour. Coincidentally, the top 5 at Winged Foot last year comprised three players inside the world's top 30 and two who had previously won on the PGA Tour. It is a similar story through the years:
2019: The top 6 comprised five players within the world's top 30 and one player who had won on the PGA Tour before.
2018: Four of the top 5 were in the world's top 30 and the other player, Tony Finau (ranked 37th), had won on the PGA Tour before.
2017: The top seven comprised four players inside the top 30. Two had won on the PGA Tour before and one who had not won but would win twice later that year (Xander Schauffele)
2016: Four of the top six were inside the top 30 and the other two had both won on the PGA Tour before.
Preview
Course Info
Course Designer: William P Bell 1957 (Rees Jones re-design 2001 and 2019)
US Open last played here: 2008
Type of Course: Coastal, Long, Demanding.
Fairways: Narrow, Bermuda Grass
Rough: Kikuyugrass with Ryegrass, Thick.
Greens: Poa Annua
Water Hazards: 18th only
Par 5's: 6th, 9th, 13th, 18th
Premium on: Tee to green and strong Poa Annua putters
Significant Info
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
Weather
Available the week of the tournament.
Trends
Winning Score
The US Open winning score has varied significantly over the years. Since 2008 we have seen scores range from +1 to -16. The last time it was played at Torrey Pines (2008), the winning score was +1.
Price of Winner
Gary Woodland (2019) is the only winner to start in excess of 50/1 in the past 8 years.
Correlating Courses
Pebble Beach
Course Form
Torrey Pines has not hosted a US Open since 2008 but course experience is a huge factor at the Farmers Insurance Open held here every year and we should assume this will be the case for the US Open.
Recent Form
Only one of the past five US Open champions had recorded a top 20 finish in their previous start. Three of the past five champions had recorded a top 10 in their last two starts.
Nationality
The last six winners have been from the USA but prior to that there were four Europeans in five years.
Stats Analysis
We are looking for a player with high SG: Approach and long off the tee. Players who can putt on Poa Annua greens are also a massive bonus.
Driving Distance
Every champion in the past four years has ranked inside the top 20 for Driving Distance.
Driving Accuracy
Only one winner in the past four years has ranked inside the top 25 for Driving Accuracy. Their rankings have been 55-30-107-9.
SG: Off The Tee
A mixed bag. Rankings have been 2-44-43-7. Focus on power with accuracy a bonus.
SG: Approach
Every winner in the past four years has ranked inside the top 4. It is absolutely vital to hit good iron shots at a US Open.
SG: Around The Green
Bryson DeChambeau ranked 5th last year but the three champions before him ranked no better than 64th.
SG: Putting
You need to putt well to win a US Open, Bryson ranked 25th last year but the three champions before him ranked 5th, 5th and 4th.
In Play
Tough Holes
The 4th, 12th and 15th all play over 480 yards and will pose a challenge. Both par 3's on the back 9 - 11th and 16th - play 225+ yards.
Birdie Holes
The four par 5's (6th, 9th, 13th and 18th) are all very scoreable but do note the 9th and 13th are over 600 yards. The 2nd is a short par 4 where players will hope to pick up a shot.
Closing Stretch
The 16th is a long par 3, 17th is a scoreable par 4, and the par 5 18th to finish can provide drama with water short and left of the green.
Fast or Slow Start
Tiger Woods shot an opening round of 72 in 2008 and found himself four shots back. This fits the in-play betting narrative for the US Open in general. Of the past 22 winners, 19 have been within four shots of the lead after round one.
US Open winners more often than not come from the 3rd round leader or those closest to him. Eleven of the past thirteen winners have been first or second after 54 holes.
However, be mindful that we have seen some massive comebacks in recent years at the Farmers Insurance Open. Marc Leishman was 6 back after 36 holes and 4 back after 54 holes at the 2019 Farmers. Jason Day was 8 back after 18, and 4 back after 36 when winning the Farmers in 2018. The previous year, Jon Rahm was 7 back after 18 and 5 back after 36.
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