Preview
Starts: 4th March 2024
Course: TPC San Antonio, Texas
Par: 72
Length: 7,438 yards
2023 Champion: Corey Conners
PGA Tour Texas Open Picks 2024
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Texas Open 2024 Course Info
Designer: Greg Norman
Used Since: 2010
Fairways: Mix of wide and narrow
Rough: Bermuda (thick)
Greens: Bermuda (11.5 stimp)
Water Hazards: On 3 holes
Par 5's: 2nd, 8th, 14th and 18th
Premium on: Sound long game
Significant Info
TPC San Antonio also hosted a Korn Ferry Tour event in 2020, the TPC San Antonio Championship at the Oaks.
We see a weaker field as the top players rest up for the Masters next week. Any player playing both this week and next will have one eye on Augusta.
2024 Valero Texas Open Trends
Winning Score
Since TPC San Antonio started hosting the event, winning score have ranged between -8 and -20. Corey Conners won with -15 last year. Conditions often dictate the winning score.
Course Form
Six of the past ten champions had recorded a Top 10 finish here prior to winning this event. Each of the winners here since 2013 had played this event at least once prior to their win.
Recent Form
Seven of the past eight champions had recorded a top 42 finish in their last start prior to winning here. Corey Conners was the exception in 2019 (missed the cut in his previous start).
World Ranking
The world ranking of the past eight champions has been 40-242-53-196-114-38-57-13 (most recent first). Corey Conners won in 2019 when Monday qualifying.
Nationality
Ten of the thirteen winners at this course have been American or Canadian.
2024 Valero Texas Open Stats Analysis
SG: Off The Tee
The last six winners have ranked 8-38-5-16-6-10.
Driving Distance
The last seven winners have ranked 51-33-61-87-46-16-50.
Driving Accuracy
The last seven winners have ranked 3-78-12-66-83-62-6.
SG: Approach
The last six winners have ranked 1-4-1-1-4-23.
Greens In Regulation
The last seven winners have ranked 1-66-1-1-3-27-12.
SG: Around The Green
The last six winners have ranked 29-3-100-46-53-15.
SG: Putting
The last seven winners have ranked 41-6-36-13-35-7-20.
2024 Valero Texas Open In Play Betting Tips
Tough Holes
The 4th and 9th play as the two hardest holes and the 1st has regularly caused problems in previous years.
Birdie Holes
The short par 4 17th hole is amongst the three easiest holes each year. The 2nd and 14th are also good birdie opportunities.
Closing Stretch
16-18 offer birdies and are more likely to play under par than over par.
Fast or Slow Start
The last eight champions have all been inside the top 20 after round one. Six of those champions have been inside the top seven. It is very important to get off to a good start.
Each of the past seven winners have been inside the top 5 at halfway. Four of the past seven champions have led going into the final round. Make no mistake, this is not a catch up course.
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Will The Weather Be A Factor at the Valero Texas Open 2024?
There may be light rain on Sunday and the wind is likely to be strongest on Saturday (15mph wind). However, the weather shouldn't have too much of an impact on the overall event.
Previous Valero Texas Open Previews
You can access our historical Texas Open tips, previews and in-play blogs using the links below:
2023 Valero Texas Open picks
2022 Valero Texas Open picks
2021 Valero Texas Open picks
2024 PGA Tour Texas Open Picks
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In-play
2024 Valero Texas Open In-Play Blog
7 March 2024, 12.25pm (UK time)
Player | Total |
Bhatia |
-15 |
McCarthy |
-11 |
Todd |
-8 |
Matsuyama |
-7 |
Henley |
-7 |
Aberg |
-6 |
2024 Valero Texas Open Round 3 Conditions
Light winds but noting overly challenging.
2024 Valero Texas Open Round 4 Weather Bias?
No, the wind is forecast to blow 7-11mph throughout the day but actually drops slightly as the afternoon goes on.
Round 4 Outright Market Summary
Our 60/1 pre-event selection, Akshay Bhatia, remains in full command. Although his lead was cut to five to four shots, it's only Denny McCarthy within six shots now and Rory McIlroy has fallen away.
Bhatia remains first for SG: Tee to Green and SG: Approach through the first three rounds. He came from behind to win at Baracuda last year so this will be a new challenge for him. McCarthy is playing well an unlikely to back down, whilst Matsuyama is a big danger having won the Genesis from 6 shots back in February.
As we pointed out yesterday, the layout at TPC San Antonio hasn't been conducive to big comebacks in years gone by and four of the past seven champions have led going into the final round. Bhatia's lead has been cut several times since his opening round and has answered the question every time, we think he will have enough to handle the pressure of leading today.
Eye Catching Niche Market Prices - Valero Texas Open
Hideki Matsuyama 'winner without Bhatia' market 15/2 @ Boylesports/VirginBet
Hideki is four back of McCarthy in this market but can use his experience to make up the ground here. As mentioned above he won Genesis from six back and we can trust him on Sunday's. He ranked 1st tee to green yesterday and 2nd for the week.
Valero Texas Open In-Play Picks - Round 4 Bets
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6 March 2024, 10.15am (UK time)
Player | Total |
Bhatia |
-11 |
Todd |
-6 |
Henley |
-6 |
McCarthy |
-6 |
McIlroy |
-5 |
Four players tied |
-4 |
2024 Valero Texas Open Round 2 Conditions
The morning starters had the best of conditions, with the wind picking up in the afternoon.
2024 Valero Texas Open Round 3 Weather Bias?
No, the wind is forecast to blow 10-14mph throughout the day with a small chance of rain.
Round 3 Outright Market Summary
Our 60/1 pre-event selection, Akshay Bhatia, has extended his lead to five shots and is now a general 11/8 to win his second PGA Tour title. The young American's halfway total of 133 shots is only one stroke worse than the tournament 36 hole record since it has been played at TPC San Antonio and he looks to be in full command.
This is new territory for Bhatia on the PGA Tour, having only previously led a tournament once through 36 holes. That event was the Great Exuma Classic on the Korn Ferry Tour in January 2023 and Bhatia would ultimately go on to finish seventh. First for SG: Tee to Green through the first two rounds, much will depend on how he copes with the pressure of front running.
We aren't looking too far down the leaderboard for a potential challenger to Bhatia given the last seven winners of this event have all been inside the top five at the midway point. The layout at TPC San Antonio hasn't been conducive to big comebacks in years gone by and if Bhatia can produce two steady rounds he will be difficult to beat.
Eye Catching Niche Market Prices - Valero Texas Open
Max Homa TOP 20 FINISH - 11/10 @ Skybet
Homa took a step backwards in round two but he still finds himself in 18th position entering the weekend. His tee to green game looks to be in solid enough shape to kick on over the weekend and with most other bookmakers making Homa an 8/11 chance or shorter, the 11/10 with Skybet looks to be too big.
Valero Texas Open In-Play Picks - Round 3 Bets
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5 March 2024, 11.15am (UK time)
Player | Total |
Bhatia |
-9 |
Todd |
-6 |
Lower |
-6 |
Eckroat |
-4 |
Homa |
-4 |
Alexander |
-4 |
2024 Valero Texas Open Round 1 Conditions
The course played firm but light winds didn't provide much defence to the course.
2024 Valero Texas Open Round 2 Weather Bias?
There looks to be a significant bias in round two with the wind forecast to blow 17mph in the afternoon. The morning starters will see winds of 4-6mph until 10am.
Round 2 Outright Market Summary
Our preview highlights that a fast start is important here - the last eight champions have all been inside the top 20 after round one. Six of those champions have been inside the top seven.
It was an ideal start for us as 60/1 selection Akshay Bhatia leads by three after a 63. He is now as short as 10/3 and with an ideal tee time today he has a great chance to open up a sizeable halfway lead. McIlroy is next in the betting at 7/1 but we see no value there as he sits six shots back and will be happy enough with a top 5 finish before Augusta next week. As mentioned above, early starters are preferred today due to the forecast.
Eye Catching Niche Market Prices - Valero Texas Open
Akshay Bhatia 2nd Round Leader - 5/6 @ Bet365 - This looks a very fair price given Bhatia's favourable tee time and three shot lead. The nearest challenger looks to be Brendon Todd, who had two chip ins and a 66ft putt yesterday whereas Bhatia was flawless tee to green, he should have enough to retain his lead.
Valero Texas Open In-Play Picks - Round 2 Bets
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