Preview
2023 Valero Texas Open Tips
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Event Info
Starts: 30th March 2023
Course: TPC San Antonio, Texas
Par: 72
Length: 7,438 yards
2022 Champion: J J Spaun
Course Info
Designer: Greg Norman
Used Since: 2010
Fairways: Mix of wide and narrow
Rough: Bermuda (thick)
Greens: Bermuda (11.5 stimp)
Water Hazards: On 3 holes
Par 5's: 2nd, 8th, 14th and 18th
Premium on: Sound long game
Significant Info
TPC San Antonio also hosted a Korn Ferry Tour event in 2020, the TPC San Antonio Championship at the Oaks.
We see a weaker field as the top players rest up for the Masters next week. Any player playing both this week and next will have one eye on Augusta.
Valero Texas Open Weather
Thursday
Light Rain and Moderate Breeze - 15mph wind
Friday
Light Rain and Moderate Breeze - 15mph wind
Saturday
Sunny - 12mph wind
Sunday
Light Clouds - 10mph wind
Valero Texas Open Trends
Winning Score
Since TPC San Antonio started hosting the event, winning score have ranged between -8 and -20. J J Spaun won with -13 last year. Conditions often dictate the winning score.
Course Form
Five of the past nine champions had recorded a Top 10 finish here prior to winning this event. Each of the winners here since 2013 had played this event at least once prior to their win.
Recent Form
Six of the past seven champions had recorded a top 42 finish in their last start prior to winning here. Corey Conners was the exception in 2019 (missed the cut in his previous start).
World Ranking
The world ranking of the past six champions has been 242-53-196-114-38-57-13 (most recent first). Corey Conners won in 2019 when Monday qualifying.
Nationality
Eight of the twelve winners at this course have been American.
Valero Texas Open Stats Analysis
SG: Off The Tee
The last five winners have ranked 38-5-16-6-10.
Driving Distance
The last six winners have ranked 33-61-87-46-16-50.
Driving Accuracy
The last six winners have ranked 78-12-66-83-62-6.
SG: Approach
The last five winners have ranked 4-1-1-4-23.
Greens In Regulation
The last six winners have ranked 66-1-1-3-27-12.
SG: Around The Green
The last five winners have ranked 3-100-46-53-15.
SG: Putting
The last six winners have ranked 6-36-13-35-7-20.
Valero Texas Open In Play Betting Tips
Tough Holes
The 4th and 9th played as the two hardest holes and the 1st has regularly caused problems in previous years.
Birdie Holes
The short par 4 17th hole is amongst the three easiest holes each year. The 2nd and 14th are also good birdie opportunities.
Closing Stretch
16-18 offer birdies and are more likely to play under par than over par.
Fast or Slow Start
The last seven champions have all been inside the top 20 after round one. Five of those champions have been inside the top 7. It is important to get off to a good start.
Each of the past six winners have been inside the top 5 at halfway. Four of the past Six champions have led going into the final round. Make no mistake, this is not a catch up course.
2023 Valero Texas Open Tips
You can sign up for all our Valero Texas Open tips and PGA Tour tips for 2023 by clicking the button below.
In-play
Valero Texas Open In-Play Blog
2 April 2023, 10:35am (UK time)
Player | Total |
Rodgers |
-12 |
Conners |
-11 |
Kuchar |
-9 |
Stevens |
-8 |
Kirk |
-8 |
2023 Valero Texas Open Round 3 Summary
Corey Conners stalled in round two, allowing Patrick Rodgers to open up a three shot lead at the top of the leaderboard. Players were unable to complete round two following yesterday's weather delay and Roberto Diaz will have a chance to reduce the deficit this morning.
Notable Round 3 Valero Texas Open Quotes
"I think we all know what's at stake with a win out here. I haven't gotten the job done in my career, but it's quite a thrill. This is why I play, why I compete and I can't wait to get out there tomorrow. . " Patrick Rodgers
" It's certainly an added comfort level out here knowing what I went through in '19, some ups and downs in the round. Yeah, I think it's certainly helpful, but still going to have to go out and play good golf." Corey Conners
2023 Valero Texas Open Round 4 Weather
Cloudy with the wind expected to peak at 14mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Corey Conners is slight favourite at 19/10, despite being one back of Rodgers. It's a similar position to the one he was in when he won here in 2019 coming from 2nd place, but he has failed to beat 69 when in contention since. He is the most likely winner in our eyes but this looks far from a two horse race.
Patrick Rodgers Is just a bit bigger than Conners at 2/1 but it would take a brave man to take that price given his record. Rogers led the RSM Classic in November last year and ended up finishing 10th and he has failed to break 70 on the three occasions he has had the 54 hole lead on tour. He has had several chances to win on tour and never looked quite comfortable, if you add in the fact a win gets him a spot at the Masters next week, he has a lot of pressure to deal with today.
Matt Kuchar hasn't contended much in the last year but he was poor last time he did at Fortinet in September, shooting 73. He did perform well here in the final round last year shooting 69 to jump to 2nd place and he is fairly priced at 15/2 to catch the leaders.
Chris Kirk is a recent winner at the Honda Classic but his approach play hasn't quite been good enough this week and ranks well behind the three ahead of him in the tee to green stats. Odds of 14/1 are tempting given his quality though.
Where is the value?
Four of the past Six champions have led going into the final round but we have our doubts over Rodgers and it's possible to see one of the chasers post a score that wins.
Round 4 Bets
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1 April 2023, 8:35am (UK time)
Player | Total |
Rodgers |
-11 |
Conners |
-8 |
Diaz (thru 10) |
-8 |
Todd |
-7 |
Thompson |
-7 |
2023 Valero Texas Open Round 2 Summary
Corey Conners stalled in round two, allowing Patrick Rodgers to open up a three shot lead at the top of the leaderboard. Players were unable to complete round two following yesterday's weather delay and Roberto Diaz will have a chance to reduce the deficit this morning.
Notable Round 2 Valero Texas Open Quotes
"I think experience definitely makes me more comfortable around here. It's demanding mentally because you know that on both sides of every hole there's some pretty thick forest and some places you don't want to be. It's just been helpful to focus on where I'm trying to hit it and manage the golf course well and I've done a great job of that for two days. " Patrick Rodgers
" I took a lot of confidence from last week, the Dell Match Play Championship in Austin. I didn't end up making it through my group, but felt like my game was really solid and liked a lot of the things that I was doing there. Just tried to keep those thoughts going this week. Halfway through and in a decent spot, looking forward to keeping it going on the weekend." Corey Conners
2023 Valero Texas Open Round 3 Weather
Cloudy with the wind expected to peak at 14mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Patrick Rodgers has played some impressive golf over the opening two rounds and finds himself priced up at a general 5/2. Rodgers leads the way SG: Tee to Green and SG: Approach and it was notable in his post round interview that he said, "I had taken ownership of my process (last week in Puntacana), specifically with my approach play, just try to make sure that I make super committed decisions and really clear choices and it's definitely starting to pay off."
Historically, Rodgers has been a player to oppose when in contention. The last two occasions he has led at halfway have resulted in finishes of 20th and 37th! He was 2nd going into the weekend at the Houston Open in November and would go on to finish 16th. In short, he's not a player we're backing at 5/2.
Corey Conners can be backed at 9/2 but he too seems a touch short. Conners appeared to cruising in round two until a four putt double bogey on the 16th hole and those sort of mistakes are certainly to be factored into the equation. He should win far more often than he does given his tremendous ball striking.
Where is the value?
The last four winners have all been inside the top five at this stage of proceedings but with doubts over the leader, there may be an opportunity for someone further down the leaderboard to catapult themselves into contention on moving day.
Round 3 Bets
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31 March 2023, 10:35am (UK time)
Player | Total |
Lower |
-5 |
Kuchar |
-4 |
Harrington |
-4 |
Diaz |
-4 |
2023 Valero Texas Open Round 1 Summary
Weather delays in the morning means some players haven't even finished their front nine. When the players did eventually get a prolonged period on the course, conditions were tough with rain and gusty winds at times. Justin Lower has a one shot lead despite only playing half of his round!
Notable Round 1 Valero Texas Open Quotes
"This golf course, it tends to lead to the person who's playing well. You can't really mask it around here, especially off the tee. I made a couple bogeys out there from just hitting my tee shots offline." Matt Wallace
"I was lucky to get away with a couple loose ones today, but for the most part games on some pretty good form and I enjoy this golf course a lot." Matt Kuchar
2023 Valero Texas Open Round 2 Weather
Sunny intervals. The wind looks set to play it's part between 10am-2pm as it reaches around 11-13mph but from 3pm onwards it's set to die down.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Corey Conners is the new 8/1 favourite and has a short birdie putt to get to four under par. A past champion here and never having finished worse than 35th in four attempts, we should expect Conners to kick on today.
The Canadian would be preferred to pre-tournament favourite, Tyrrell Hatton, who is two under par at around the 9/1 mark. Hatton is making his debut here and seemed short at the start of the week given his injury troubles at the matchplay, we are happy to overlook him.
Si Woo Kim is another with a terrific record here and 12/1 is a fair price.
Where is the value?
The last seven champions have all been inside the top 20 after round one. We don't have the full picture yet but what we do know is that you want to be up with the pace here. The Am-PM wave won't play until late afternoon today so it is likely they will have the easier of the conditions with Friday afternoon and Saturday morning looking calm.
Round 2 Bets
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