Preview
2023 Farmers Insurance Open Tips
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Event Info
Starts: 25th January 2023
Course: Torrey Pines (South and North)
Par: Both 72
Length: 7,765 yards and 7,258 yards
2022 Champion: Luke List
Course Info
Course Designer: South - William P Bell 1957, Rees Jones re-design 2001 and 2019. North - Tom Weiskopf re-design 2016
Courses Used Since: 1952
Course Type: South - Coastal, Long, Demanding. North - Coastal, Short
Fairways: Narrow, Bermuda Grass
Rough: Kikuyu grass with Ryegrass, Thick.
Greens: South - Poa Annua 11.5 on stimpmeter North - Bentgrass 10.5 on stimpmeter
Water Hazards: 18th only
Par 5's: 6th, 9th, 13th, 18th (South Course)
Premium on: Tee to green and Poa Annua putting
Weather
Wednesday
Mostly sunny with wind peaking at 8mph.
Thursday
Partly cloudy, max wind 15mph.
Friday
Sunny with wind peaking at 8mph.
Saturday
Partly cloudy, max wind 11mph.
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
The players each play the North and the South Course during the first two rounds. Please be aware, if betting in play, the South Course plays significantly tougher. The South Course is used for the final 36 holes.
The South Course was renovated in 2019 by Rees Jones prior to the US Open in June. It increased in length and was generally made tougher.
Trends
Winning Score
The winning score has ranged from -9 to -21 over the years, although it has to be said, Justin Rose's -21 in 2019 was exceptional golf. Winning score has been between -13 and -16 in eight of the last thirteen years, including 2022 when Luke List won with -15.
World Ranking
World rankings of the past seven winners have been 151-11-28-1-12-137-24. It's worth noting Jon Rahm was the player ranked 137, winners are generally in the top 50 in the world rankings or special talents!
Correlating Courses
Pebble Beach, Glen Abbey, Riviera (All Poa Annua greens), Muirfield Village
Course Debutants
Jon Rahm is the only player to win in the last ten years when making his tournament debut. Consider players who have experience of Torrey Pines when making your Farmers Insurance Open picks.
Course Form
9 of the last 11 winners had recorded a top 10 finish prior to their win. Even more impressively, four of the last ten champions had recorded a top 10 finish the previous year.
Recent Form
You don't need to be in blistering form to win here. Four of the last six winners - Patrick Reed, Marc Leishman, Justin Rose and Jon Rahm - all arrived in mediocre form (albeit making cuts). Don't be too put off if your Farmers pick isn't nailing top 10's already.
Nationality
Used to be heavily dominated by Americans, but only six Americans have won in the past eleven years. Three of the last eight winners have been Australian.
Stats Analysis
Driving Distance
Rankings of the last seven winners were 17-87-52-14-2-36-81. Distance isn't essential but definitely an advantage around the South Course.
Driving Accuracy
Rankings of the last seven winners were 75-13-109-25-52-29-121. Again, not essential.
SG: Off The Tee
Rankings of the last six winners were 21-31-82-26-15-9. Overall SG off the Tee is useful.
SG: Approach
Rankings of the last six winners were 4-39-9-11-85-10. Approach play generally key.
SG: Around The Green
Rankings of the last six winners were 32-1-96-28-42-66. Not an essential stat.
SG: Putting
Rankings of the last seven winners were 8-10-3-39-54-58-8. As always, a hot putter helps but not essential.
In Play Golf Betting Advice
Tough Holes
On the South Course, 4th, 12th and 15th all play over 480 yards and will pose a challenge. Both par 3's on the back 9 - 11th and 16th - play 225+ yards.
Birdie Holes
The four par 5's (6th, 9th, 13th and 18th) are all very scoreable but do note the 9th and 13th are over 600 yards. The 2nd is a short par 4 which players will be expecting to birdie.
Fast or Slow Start
We have seen some massive comebacks in recent years here. Luke List was 5 shots behind after 54holes whilst both he and Zalatoris were 4 and 6 shots back after round one.
Marc Leishman was 6 back after 36 holes and 4 back after 54 holes. Jason Day was 8 back after 18 holes, and 4 back after 36 holes. Jon Rahm was 7 back after 18 holes and 5 back after 36 holes. Although Justin Rose led from round 2 onwards in 2019, all in all this is catch up event.
Closing stretch
The 16th on the South is a long par 3, 17th is a scoreable par 4, and the par 5 18th to finish can provide drama with water short and left of the green.
Previous Farmers Insurance Open tips
You can access our historical Farmers Insurance Open picks using the links below:
2022
2021
2023 Farmers Insurance Open Tips
You can sign up for all our Farmers Insurance Open tips and PGA Tour tips for 2023 by clicking the button below.
In-play
2023 Farmers Insurance Open In-Play Blog
28th January 2023, 7.30am (UK time)
Player | Total |
Ryder |
-12 |
Rahm |
-10 |
Finau |
-8 |
Morikawa |
-7 |
Im |
-7 |
Homa |
-7 |
Theegala |
-7 |
2023 Farmers Insurance Open Round 3 Summary
Sam Ryder may have maintained his lead at the top but the chasing pack looks completely different after a fascinating moving day at Torrey Pines. Jon Rahm and Tony Finau were the big movers with rounds of 66 and 64 on a perfect day for scoring.
Notable Round 3 Farmers Insurance Open Quotes
"I don't feel like I have a lot of weaknesses with my game right now. I think I was leading the week, I don't know if I still am, in greens in regulation. My iron play feels great, but if you get out of position off the tee, there's just nothing you can do other than try and save a couple shots." Sam Ryder
" I stayed really patient out there and took advantage of the holes I could take advantage of and played what I would say was very smart throughout the round. Hopefully I can keep driving it like this like I did yesterday and today tomorrow because obviously putting it in the fairway out here allows you to be very aggressive and give yourself a lot of good chances." Jon Rahm
"First couple days the putter was quite cold and not very comfortable over it, but a couple of adjustments in setup and rolled it a lot better today, and it was evident with the putts that went in from short range for me. I think I -- I've actually hit it really nicely all three days, I just capitalized on putts, par saves and birdie putts that I really needed." Tony Finau
2023 Farmers Insurance Open Round 4 Weather
Cloudy with the wind expected to peak at 9mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Jon Rahm is the understandable 6/5 favourite and the man we are supporting going into the final round. Having advised Rahm to subscribers at 20/1 after round one, we are very much hoping he can get the job done.
Rahm's recent record in contention is excellent and he has a ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Rating. He's looking to make it three wins in a row on the PGA Tour and it's hard to see him not going close on a course he adores so much. He's the most likely winner in our opinion.
Sam Ryder can be backed at 5/2. He hung on well in round three, a cold putter preventing him from shooting under par. However, he's chasing his first PGA Tour victory and he's going to have to be at his best to hold off the chasers given their quality.
It should be noted that Ryder led after the third round when winning his sole Korn Ferry Tour title in 2017. He also ranks 3rd SG: Tee to Green for his two rounds on the South Course. However, to win this event and hold off Rahm, Finau and others is a big ask. We don't see him winning.
Tony Finau has be be considered at 7/1. After two mediocre putting performances in rounds one and two, the putter caught fire in round three. Finau's challenge will depend on whether the putter behaves but he's certainly a danger. He leads the SG: Tee to Green stats for the two recorded rounds at the South Course.
Finau, like Rahm, has a ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Rating. Much has been made of Rahm's recent winning record but we shouldn't forget that if Finau wins this week, it will be his fourth win in his last eleven starts!
Where is the value?
Only six of the last 27 third round leaders with a two stroke lead have went on to win on the PGA Tour. We are of the opinion Rahm wins but we certainly won't rule out a low final round from the players at seven and eight under par.
Round 3 Bet
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27th January 2023, 10am (UK time)
Player | Total |
Ryder |
-12 |
Steele |
-9 |
Goya |
-7 |
Six players tied |
-6 |
2023 Farmers Insurance Open Round 2 Summary
The wind made conditions tough but it didn't phase round one leader Sam Ryder, who takes a three shot lead over playing partner Brendan Steele. Jon Rahm got himself back into the mix with a 67.
Notable Round 2 Farmers Insurance Open Quotes
"I'm just doing everything pretty solid. Starts off the tee for me, I'm driving it well. My iron play is really good, so I feel like if I put it in the fairway, I can attack. And I don't think I really missed many shots today. I missed a couple fairways, but the irons have been really good." Sam Ryder
"It was nice to see the ball going in the hole for the last couple days. We're just super comfortable together. We had a lot of fun together, so I think that makes it a little easier, especially when it's cold out." Brendan Steele
2023 Farmers Insurance Open Round 3 Weather
Sunny. The wind is expected to be around 2-4mph in the morning and 8-9mph in the afternoon.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
The market favourites all struggled yesterday and only Taylor Montgomery was able to stay in the top 10. Sam Ryder was extremely impressive yesterday and there is no doubt playing with his good friend Brendan Steele is helping him. It would be no surprise to see them both help each other along today in easier conditions than they faced today.
Jon Rahm and Max Homa are the other two players at single figure odds and there's no doubt that is who the leaders will be looking over their shoulders to. We advised Rahm to subscribers yesterday at 20/1 and are optimistic he can get himself into a position to challenge on Saturday. Max Homa is a real danger and is tempting at 8/1 today.
Where is the value?
Only one of the last five halfway leaders have won here but there is a greater separation on the leaderboard so we have to take that with a pinch of salt. There doesn't appear to be a great deal of value in the outright market today.
Round 3 Bet
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26th January 2023, 10:25am (UK time)
Player | Total |
Ryder |
-8 |
Rai |
-8 |
Grant |
-8 |
Steele |
-7 |
Seven players tied |
-6 |
2023 Farmers Insurance Open Round 1 Summary
Heavy favourite Jon Rahm got off to a slow start, playing the South Course in one over par. He is now nine shots off the lead. As expected, the leaders all played the North course, with Sam Stevens and Andrew Novak shooting the lowest scores on the South.
Notable Round 1 Farmers Insurance Open Quotes
"I think the temperature and also how the wind affects the ball is a little closer to what I would have grown up with in the U.K. The ball doesn't travel quite as far here compared to other places in America. The wind feels a little bit heavier also. So I guess I just see the shots a little bit clearer." Aaron Rai
"And my iron play in general's very good. So I'm trying to kind of take advantage of that and be a little bit more aggressive getting the ball closer to the hole. I started doing that over the weekend in the desert and it seemed to work so I wanted to carry that out here, even though it's a much more difficult place." Brendan Steele
2023 Farmers Insurance Open Round 2 Weather
Sunny and windy! The wind is expected to be around 6-8mph in the morning and 16-18mph in the afternoon. The earlier the start, the better.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Taylor Montgomery and Justin Thomas are 8/1 joint favourites having went round the South Course in 67 and 68 shots respectively. Sunjae Im is just behind them in the betting at 10/1 after also carding a 68 on the South.
Out of the three, Justin Thomas looks the best value in our eyes. He had his approach play dialled in, ranking 2nd in that category and it it wasn't for a couple of very short range putts, he could have been a couple of shots better. Thomas shot a 63 on the north course last year so it is obviously a course that suits his eye.
Im has never shot better than 67 in four attempts at the North Course whilst Montgomery shot 64 there last year. Whilst we expect Montgomery to kick on today, he is unproven on the PGA Tour and we're not keen to take 8/1.
Where is the value?
Last year, only one of the top eight after round one went on to finish in the top 10 (Jon Rahm), so expect to see lots of movement on the leaderboard today. We are keen to get players onside who are capable in the wind and hitting fairways.
Round 2 Bet
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