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Magical Kenya Open 2024

 

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Starts: 22nd February 2024
Course: Muthaiga GC, Kenya
Par: 71 (36-35)
Length: 7,228 yards
2023 Champion: Jorge Campillo

2024 Magical Kenya Open Tips

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Magical Kenya Open Course Info

Designer: Peter Matkovich redesign in 2002
Course Type: Classical, tree lined
Last hosted: 2022
Fairways: Narrow
Par 5's: 4th, 7th, 10th and 18th
Premium on: Accuracy

Significant Info To Be Aware Of
This event was played at Karen CC in 2019 and 2021 but moved to Muthaiga GC in 2022.

Muthaiga GC hosted the Kenya Open on a number of occasions but most recently between 2009-2012 and 2017-2018.

The event is played at altitude and those players with experience of playing in the thinner air are at an advantage.

Will The Weather Be A Factor At The Mafical Kenya Open 2024?

TBC

Magical Kenya Open Trends

Winning score
Winning scores in 2017 and 2018 on the Challenge Tour were -11 and -17.  Ashun Wu won with a score of -16 in 2022 and Campillo won with -18 in 2023. 

Correlating Courses 
Gloria GC which hosted the Turkish Airlines Challenge appears to be a strong linking course. Kenya Open winners in 2017 and 2018, Lorenzo Gagli and Aaron Rai, have several strong finishes at Gloria GC.  Ewen Ferguson, who held a four shot lead going into the final round of last year's Kenya Open also has a 4th place finish at Gloria GC.  Marcus Kinhult also has strong finishes at both courses.

Course form
Gagli was 16th the year before he triumphed here.  Aaron Rai hadn't played the course before when he won in 2017.  However, that applied to most of the field.  Ashun Wu was also a course debutant when winning last year. Campillo was 13th the year prior to his win in 2023. 

Recent form
Gagli and Rai both recorded top 30 finishes prior to their win.  Ashun Wu was 42nd before his win in 2022 whilst Campillo was 4th on his last start before his win last year.

Magical Kenya Open Stats Analysis

We don't have stats from the Kenya Open's played on the Challenge Tour in 2017 and 2018.  However, we can draw conclusions from the winners of earlier events.  Both the 2017 and 2018 Kenya Open winners are shorter, accurate players.

We do have stats from 2022 and 2023 and we take a look at the stats of the winners below:

SG: Off The Tee
29-103

Driving Accuracy
5-40

Driving Distance
39-93

SG: Approach
7-5

SG: Around the green
29-18

SG: Putting
37-6

Accuracy off the tee, a strong iron game with a tidy short game is the key to success here. 

Magical Kenya Open Quotes

“It does fly a long way, personally I’ve done well whenever I play at altitude, I’m good at controlling my irons, so I did not do too much trackman work this week - I might have hit about 50 balls on the trackman this week - and I just got my numbers. I’m very comfortable out there. It’s not easy to get your numbers dialled in but I’ve done a good job. My first win came in Joburg which was also at altitude so I have good memories from playing at places where the golf course is at a height and that is definitely helping. I’m very pleased with what I’ve done over the past few days.” Shubhankar Sharma, 2022

“Kenya has always treated me well. I don’t really know what it is about here, but I always get some good feelings each time I come back. Although it is a different course to where I won I always seem to get the numbers right with the distances eventually. The ball can go really far here so you need to be careful with your calculations!" Sebastian Soderberg, 2018

“When I was flying here I was thinking of that (final) round and all the holes. I was already studying all of the course, but actually, the course is completely different to last year. Last year it was so dry and the ball was running a lot. This year the course is playing much longer. I feel it is easier closer to the greens because it’s easier to chip the greens. The fairways are actually in a good condition after all the rain, so I’m hoping for another good week in Kenya.” Francesco Laporta, 2018.

“It’s a really good course. The front nine and back nine are really different. Everybody says this course is shorter, but this year it’s really wet so it’s playing longer than the other years." Romain Langasque, 2018

“The second nine is really tough. There are some holes that I was just happy to par, so if I keep playing them well, it could be a lower score tomorrow.” Max Schmitt, 2018

"The golf course is very, very firm, I almost feel like I’m playing links golf, and the altitude is a factor for sure – I hit a six iron today from about 219 and it just goes so far." Austin Connelly, 2017

"It’s not an overly long course and it’s pretty firm, and it’s quite tight in places so I think hitting it well off the tee and keeping yourself in a good position, just being solid throughout the week and giving yourself chances, I think those are the main keys to doing well around here." Aaron Rai, 2017

“I like the look of the course. It’s like a lot of African courses, they look pretty similar, and we play an event every year in Zimbabwe and two in Zambia and they look pretty much the same, and I just like the look of it – it’s a great South African-style course. I definitely feel the back nine is playing easier. It’s a lot longer as well, about 400 yards longer than the front nine, and there’s a lot more wedges you hit in and birdie opportunities on the back. Overall this week I think you’ll probably see the front nine playing a lot more difficult." Jaco Ahlers, 2017

“It’s a very nice course and there are different ways you can approach it. You can be aggressive with the driver or, like me, you can hit a lot of long irons off the tee – the key is just to hit the fairway because then you can have a lot of birdie chances." Adrien Saddier, 2017

Magical Kenya Open In-Play Advice

Tough Holes
Holes 12, 13 and 14 played as three of the five hardest holes last year.  Be aware of this stretch of holes when betting in-play.

Birdie Holes
The four par 5 holes, along with the short par 4 17th hole played as the easiest holes in 2022.

Fast or Slow Start

2022
Ashun Wu was in 23rd place after round one, five shots behind leader Daniel Gavins.  Wu was in second place with one round to go, trailing leader Ewen Ferguson by four shots..

2018
Lorenzo Gagli was three shots back in 15th after an opening round of 67. Gagli was 4th, trailing by four shots going into the final round.

2017
Aaron Rai was three shots back in 13th after an opening round of 67. Rai trailed by a shot going into the final round.

Closing stretch
The 17th and 18th were two of the four easiest holes on the course in 2022.  Expect a fast finish! 

Previous Magical Kenya Open tips

You can access our historical Magical Kenya Open tips using the links below:

2023

2022

2021

2024 Magical Kenya Open Tips

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In-play

2024 Magical Kenya Open In-Play Blog

24 February 2024, 7:45pm (UK time)

 
PlayerTotal
Van Driel -10
Elvira M -10
Syme -8
Dean -8
Van Velzen -8
Four Players Tied -7
   

2024 Magical Kenya Open Round 3 Conditions

Calmer and softer conditions today.

2024 Magical Kenya Open Round 4 Weather Bias?

The wind picks up slightly at around 10am so not much of a bias for anyone in contention.

Round 3 Outright Market Summary

Darius Van Driel and Manuel Elvira have replaced the Scottish dup of Ferguson and Syme at the head of the market. Both can be backed at around 3/1 and neither are tempting us at that price. Both players were scrambling well towards the end of the round today but tomorrow may be a different story and we could see a classic DP World Tour Sunday. We have seen several off the pace wins at the Kenya Open and this looks set up for another. 

Eye Catching Niche Market Prices

TBC

Magical Kenya Open Round 4 Bets

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23 February 2024, 4:45pm (UK time)

 
PlayerTotal
Van Driel -7
Pulkkanen -7
Syme -7
Ferguson -6
Scalise -6
Hutsby -6
Elvira M -6

2024 Magical Kenya Open Round 2 Conditions

The wind continues to keep the scoring down.

2024 Magical Kenya Open Round 3 Weather Bias?

Scattered showers, potential thunder and breezy. Wind 10-15mph. Slight preference to the morning starters who may get a couple of hours of calmer conditions. 

Round 3 Outright Market Summary

Scottish pair Connor Syme and Ewen Ferguson head the market at 11/2, closely followed by Darius Van Driel at 8/1. Fifteen players are within two of the lead and all 71 players that made the cut are within seven shots. This is an extremely wide open event and it would be no surprise to see a very different leaderboard/market tomorrow evening. 

Eye Catching Niche Market Prices

TBC

Magical Kenya Open Round 3 Bets

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22 February 2024, 5:45pm (UK time)

 
PlayerTotal
Van Driel -5
Lacroix -4
Huizing -4
Syme -4
Van Velzen -4
Pulkannen -4
Schuetz -4

2024 Magical Kenya Open Round 1 Conditions

Relatively windy and soft conditions after a lot of rain in the build up.

2024 Magical Kenya Open Round 2 Weather Bias?

Morning clouds then becoming partly sunny and breezy. Wind 12-18mph. Slight preference to the morning starters who may get a couple of hours of calmer conditions. 

Round 2 Outright Market Summary

No one has entered single figure territory, with leader Van Driel, Connor Syme and Fredric Lacroix all around the 11/1 mark. The last couple of winners have been at least four back after round one here and it's a golf course which things can change dramatically. We are looking for value further down the leaderboard this evening.

Eye Catching Niche Market Prices

Skybet has some great prices on the top 5/10/20 finish markets this evening. The 10/3 on Otaegui Top 10 finish and 16/5 Kawamura Top 10 Finish look great value given their solid starts. 

Magical Kenya Open Round 2 Bets

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