Magical Kenya Open 2022

Event Info

Starts: 3rd March 2022
Course: Muthaiga GC, Kenya
Par: 71 (36-35)
Length: 7,184 yards
2021 Champion: Justin Harding

Preview
In-play

Preview

Course Info

Designer: Peter Matkovich re-design in 2002
Course Type: Classical, tree lined
Last hosted: 2018
Fairways: Narrow
Par 5's: 4th, 7th, 10th and 18th
Premium on: Accuracy

Significant Info To Be Aware Of
This event was played at Karen CC last year but has now moved to Muthaiga GC in Nairobi.

Muthaiga GC has hosted the Kenya Open on a number of occassions but most recently between 2009-2012 and 2017-2018.
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.

Weather Forecast

All four days are forecast to be sunny with a max wind of 14-15mph.

Trends

Winning score
Winning scores in 2017 and 2018 on the Challenge Tour were -11 and -17.

Correlating Courses
Gloria GC which hosted the Turkish Airlines Challenge appears to be a strong linking course between 2017 and 2018 winners, Lorenzo Gagli and Aaron Rai. Gagli had several runner up finishes there whilst Rai was 3rd in 2016.

Course form
Gagli was 16th the year before he won. Aaron Rai hadn't played the course before when he won in 2017. However, that applied to most of the field.

Recent form
Gagli and Rai both recorded top 30 finishes prior to their win.

Stats Analysis

We don't have stats from the Kenya Open's played on the Challenge Tour. However, we can draw conclusions from the winners of earlier events. Both the 2017 and 2018 Kenya Open winners are shorter, accurate players.

Player Quotes

“Kenya has always treated me well. I don’t really know what it is about here, but I always get some good feelings each time I come back. Although it is a different course to where I won I always seem to get the numbers right with the distances eventually. The ball can go really far here so you need to be careful with your calculations!" Sebastian Soderberg, 2018

“When I was flying here I was thinking of that (final) round and all the holes. I was already studying all of the course, but actually, the course is completely different to last year. Last year it was so dry and the ball was running a lot. This year the course is playing much longer. I feel it is easier closer to the greens because it’s easier to chip the greens. The fairways are actually in a good condition after all the rain, so I’m hoping for another good week in Kenya.” Francesco Laporta, 2018.

“It’s a really good course. The front nine and back nine are really different. Everybody says this course is shorter, but this year it’s really wet so it’s playing longer than the other years." Romain Langasque, 2018

“The second nine is really tough. There are some holes that I was just happy to par, so if I keep playing them well, it could be a lower score tomorrow.” Max Schmitt, 2018

"The golf course is very, very firm, I almost feel like I’m playing links golf, and the altitude is a factor for sure – I hit a six iron today from about 219 and it just goes so far." Austin Connelly, 2017

"It’s not an overly long course and it’s pretty firm, and it’s quite tight in places so I think hitting it well off the tee and keeping yourself in a good position, just being solid throughout the week and giving yourself chances, I think those are the main keys to doing well around here." Aaron Rai, 2017

“I like the look of the course. It’s like a lot of African courses, they look pretty similar, and we play an event every year in Zimbabwe and two in Zambia and they look pretty much the same, and I just like the look of it – it’s a great South African-style course. I definitely feel the back nine is playing easier. It’s a lot longer as well, about 400 yards longer than the front nine, and there’s a lot more wedges you hit in and birdie opportunities on the back. Overall this week I think you’ll probably see the front nine playing a lot more difficult." Jaco Ahlers, 2017

“It’s a very nice course and there are different ways you can approach it. You can be aggressive with the driver or, like me, you can hit a lot of long irons off the tee – the key is just to hit the fairway because then you can have a lot of birdie chances." Adrien Saddier, 2017

In Play

Tough Holes
Long par 4 8th played the hardest in 2018. The 5th, 6th and 8th are three of the eight hardest holes on the course.

Birdie Holes
The four par 5 holes, along with the short par 4 17th hole played as the easiest holes in 2018.

Fast or Slow Start
2018
Lorenzo Gagli was three shots back in 15th after an opening round of 67. Gagli was 4th, trailing by four going into the final round.

2017
Aaron Rai was three shots back in 13th after an opening round of 67. Rai trailed by a shot going into the final round.

Closing stretch
The 17th and 18th were two of the four easiest holes on the course in 2018. Expect a fast finish!

In-play

Kenya Open In-Play Blog

5 March 2022, 6:35pm (UK time)

Player	Total
Ferguson	-14
Wu	-10
Kinhult	-10
Garcia Rodriguez	-9
Horsey	-9
Campillo	-9
Schmid	-9

Scotsman Ewen Ferguson leads the way with one round to go at the Magical Kenya Open.

Ferguson is chasing his first European Tour win and for all his talent, odds of 5/4 seem short to us. We've seen how leaders have struggled this week and we're quite happy to take Ferguson on.

Previous Kenya Opens at Muthaiga GC haven't been kind to leaders, with neither of the leaders in 2017 or 2018 able to convert. Lorenzo Gagli came from four shots back in 2018 and Aaron Rai trailed by a shot in 2017.

Immediately behind Ferguson are Ashun Wu and Marcus Kinhult. Annoyingly, Kinhult was firmly on our radar pre-event having won a Nordic Golf League event last week. The Swede won the British Masters in 2018 and will be full of confidence even if his win last week was at a lower level. The 10/1 on offer is tempting given he was once a player ranked inside the top 100 in the world.

Ashun Wu is a multiple winner on the European Tour and he too is expected to put up a strong challenge. Odds of 7/1 aren't unreasonable either and we don't dismiss his chances.

The group at nine under par will all fancy their chances if Ferguson slips up and it wouldn't be a surprise to see the winner emerge from there.

We advised David Horsey pre-event at 60/1 and we're hopeful he can match or better his 3rd round 66.

Also in that group are Jorge Campillo (16/1), Matti Schmid (12/1) and Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez (25/1). Campillo would be the favoured option of that trio, purely based on his experience.

Weather for the final round in Nairobi is forecast to be sunny with wind expected to reach a maximum of 14 mph.

Round 4 Bet

1pt Jorge Campillo WIN ONLY 16/1 @ Coral

Jorge is a two time winner on the European Tour and moved nicely into contention with a round of 65. He's improved every day and he's our favoured option should Ferguson slip up. We're keeping stakes small as he'll likely need help from Ferguson but given his driving has been strong this week (he's the best SG: Off The Tee of any of the leaders), we're happy with the 16/1.

+ - Round 3 Bets Click to collapse

4 March 2022, 5:35pm (UK time)

Player	Total
Sharma	-10
Kawamura	-9
Ferguson	-9
Lawrence	-7
Three players tied	-6

Shubhankar Sharma recovered from a slow start and carded a 67 to take the lead by one at the halfway point. He birdied three of his last four holes and will carry some nice momentum into tomorrow.

The Indian continued his tactic of irons off most of the tees and it is paying dividends so far. He seems very relaxed and odds of 7/2 are reasonable given the pedigree of the chasing pack.

Masahiro Kawamura is next in the betting at 9/2, one back of Sharma. He has played his last 31 holes in 9 under par but is yet to win on the DP World Tour and looks short in comparison to Sharma.

Ewen Ferguson is an improving player but this feels a little soon for him to get over the line and odds of 9/1 are not enticing us.

The dangerman is probably Dean Burmester who is four back of Sharma and available at 10/1. This course negates his power advantage though and he would be preferred at a different venue.

Round 3 Bet

3pts Lorenzo Gagli to beat Garrick Porteous (3rd round 2 ball) 11/8 @ Coral

Lorenzo is a past champion at this course, having triumphed here in 2018 when the Kenya Open was a Challenge Tour event. He fired the better round in round two, making only one bogey and he is expected to kick on over the weekend on a course he clearly enjoys. In contrast, Porteous made four bogeys in round 2 and given he missed the cut both times this event was held on the Challenge Tour (2017 and 2018), we think he's ripe to be taken on. If you needed any further persuasion, Gagli became a father again in November last year and we may see some improved play from the Italian in 2022 as a result.

+ - Round 2 Bets Click to collapse

3 March 2022, 4:15pm (UK time)

Player	Total
Gavins	-7
Veerman	-6
Sharma	-6
Slattery	-5
Ferguson	-5
Three players tied	-4

One over par through six holes, Daniel Gavins went fired seven birdies in his final twelve holes to take a one shot lead after the opening 18 holes at Muthaiga GC.

The Englishman hasn't quite hit the heights of last year in his opening events of 2022 but a few weeks off seem to have done the trick.

Gavins finds himself 3rd in the betting at 10/1. Ahead of him are Johannes Veerman (7/1) and Shubhankar Sharma (15/2).

Veerman cut a relaxed figure in his post round interview and he had every reason to be positive given his round built upon his solid start to the year. He's a worthy favourite and with the added Nappy Factor he possesses after becoming a father, he has to be respected.

Sharma's short game was in fine order today and commented how he felt fresh after a few weeks off. He is unlikely to go away and has the chance to set the clubhouse target in the morning.

When this course hosted the Kenya Open on the Challenge Tour, both winners were inside the top 15 after the opening round. Both Lorenzo Gagli and Aaron Rai were three shots back after the opening 18 holes.

Weather for round 2 will be much the same as round 1, sunny with a max wind of 14mph in the afternoon.

Round 2 Bets

1pt Each Way Jacques Kruyswijk 50/1 @ General (1/5 1-5)

Kruyswijk was on our radar pre-event due to his impressive record in Kenya but we wanted to wait and see how he started after two poor showings in Dubai recently. He recovered nicely today after a bogey on his second hole to play his next 16 holes in four under par bogey free. With three top 10's in Kenya in four attempts, he can play his way into this tournament tomorrow.

0.5pts Each Way Oliver Bekker 125/1 @ Coral/Ladbrokes (1/5 1-5)

Bekker was also on our radar pre-event but odds of 40/1 were too short for us. A slow start enables us to get on at a big price although it is acknowledged he has a lot of work to do tomorrow. He is no stranger to going hot and cold though - he started with a 73 in his last start in Dubai and followed with a 62 the next day. Bekker has a great record on this course and we expect him to climb up the leaderboard over the next three days.

0.5pts Each Way Huilin Zhang 175/1 @ SpreadEx (1/5 1-5)

Zhang is playing his first event of the year but looks to have picked up where he left off on the China Tour in 2021. He finished top 10 in his last four events of the year and also won the China Open. Given he's 4 under par with an early start tomorrow, odds of 150/1 and above were tempting enough for us to get involved.

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