Preview
2023 Dubai Desert Classic Tips
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Results
Overall Profit/Loss: -9.95pts
2023 Dubai Desert Classic Pre-Event Tips: -3.95pts
0.75pts EW Padraig Harrington 70/1 (1/5 1-8)
0.75pts EW Henrik Stenson 80/1 (1/5 1-8)
0.75pts Matt Wallace 70/1 (1/5 1-8)
0.5pts Bernd Wiesberger 100/1 (1/4 1-5)
0.5pts Jason Scrivener 100/1 (1/5 1-6)
2023 Dubai Desert Classic In-Play Bets: -6pts
2ptsWin Only Lucas Herbert 16/1
0.5ptsEW Tommy Fleetwood (1/5 1-4)
1ptEW Min Woo Lee 33/1 (1/5 1-4)
Event Info
Starts: 26 January 2023
Course: Emirates GC, Dubai
Par: 72 (35-37)
Length: 7,428 yards
2022 Champion: Viktor Hovland
Course Info
Course Designer: Karl Litten
Fairways: Wide
Rough: Average
Greens: Bermuda
Water Hazards: On 9 holes
Par 5's: 3rd, 10th, 13th, 18th
Hosted Since: 1989
Premium on: Strong driving and approach.
Weather Forecast
Thursday
Light rain in the afternoon. Wind 8-12mph all day.
Friday
Light rain in the morning. Wind 8mph in the morning, rising to 12mph in the afternoon.
Saturday
Sunny with a maximum wind of 13mph in the afternoon.
Sunday
Sunny with a maximum wind of 13mph in the afternoon.
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
-This is only the second full field event in 2023 for the DP World Tour. You may see rust from some players.
Trends
Winning score
With the exception of 2020 and 2022, the winning score has been between -16 and -24 in the last ten editions. Severe wind in 2020 meant the winning score was -9 and testing conditions last year saw Viktor Hovland win with -12.
World ranking
World ranking of the last five winners prior to their win was 5-27-223-5-60-15-19 (most recent first). Winners are generally shorter odds.
Correlating Courses
The Portugal Masters, with its wide fairways and plentiful birdies, has plenty of crossover form.
Course form
Absolutely crucial. Of the last eleven winners, nine had posted a top 20 prior to winning. The only players who hadn't were Haotong Li and Viktor Hovland, who had posted a top 40 finish in their only appearance prior to winning. We value course form highly when making our Dubai Desert Classic picks.
Recent form
Since the Abu Dhabi Championship began preceding Dubai in 2018, we've seen winners have mixed form at Abu Dhabi before winning in Dubai. Haotong Li won in 2018 after missing the cut in and Lucas Herbert won in 2020 after a 67th place finish. 2022 winner Viktor Hovland was 5th the week before.
Rust
Every champion in the past nine years had teed it up in the calendar year prior to winning. Look for players who have shaken off the rust when making your Dubai Desert Classic picks.
Nationality
Winners have hailed from a number of different countries. We've seen four Spanish and six UK winners in the past 13 years.
First Round Leader
The last five first round leaders at the Dubai Desert Classic were afternoon starters who teed off between 12.30pm and 1pm. In the last ten years, six of the FRL's teed off between 12.30pm and 1pm. The other four teed off between 8.05am and 8.35am.
Stats Analysis
Strokes Gained stats are available since 2018 on the European Tour. Preference is for a strong driver who finds a hot putter.
SG: Off The Tee
In the past five years no winner has ranked worse than 38th in this category. The past five champions have ranked 2-6-5-11-38 (latest year first) in this category.
SG: Approach
The past five champion rankings have been 3-2-74-16-27 (latest year first).
SG: Around the Greens
Windy conditions in 2020 meant short game was at a premium and this was evident as Herbert and runner up, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, ranked 5th and 3rd in this category. However, Hovland ranked 85th last year despite the poor scoring and Paul Casey ranked 19th in 2021. The the two winners previously ranked 46th and 36th. Short game is not key here.
SG: Putting
The winner generally needs to putt well. The past five champions have ranked 18-57-18-5-3 in this category. It should be noted that he greens in 2021 were exceptionally poor and were ripped up immediately after the tournament ended.
In Play Golf Betting Advice
Tough Holes
Par 4's 6th, 9th and 12th traditionally play as the hardest on the course.
Birdie Holes
The four par 5s (3rd, 10th, 13th, 18th), played the easiest last year and need to be taken advantage of.
Fast or Slow Start
In the last 11 years only three winners have opened with a score worse than 67 in round one. Eight of the past eleven had been leading after the third round. It is not a course to play catch up unless conditions make it tough.
Closing Stretch
The 17th and 18th both rank among the five easiest holes on the course. However, players must negotiate water up the last and we saw Christiaan Bezuidenhout hit his 3rd shot at the 72nd hole in 2020 into the water.
Previous Dubai Desert Classic tips
You can access our historical Dubai Desert Classic tips using the links below:
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2023 Dubai Desert Classic Tips
You can sign up for all our Dubai Desert Classic tips and DP World Tour Tour tips for 2023 by clicking the button below.
In-play
Dubai Desert Classic In-Play Blog
29th January 2023, 5:15pm (UK time)
Player | Total |
---|---|
McIlroy | -15 |
Shinkwin | -12 |
Bradbury | -12 |
Seven players tied | -11 |
2023 Dubai Desert Classic Day 4 Summary
Rory McIlroy fired a best of the day 65 to open up a three stroke lead in Dubai. Having opened with four birdies, it looked like McIlroy would run away with the event but there were patches of indifferent golf, not least the poor second shot on the 18th that found water.
Notable Day 4 Dubai Desert Classic Quotes
"So felt like the good golf came in sort of two bursts today, and then the rest of it, it was okay. I held it together. I still don't feel quite in control of my game. But today was much better than yesterday, so that was a positive." Rory McIlroy
"It wasn't as clean as probably the scorecard says. I struggled a bit at the start with a good up-and-down on 2, I chipped in on 3. Made some nice putts. Got a bit fortunate out of the rough where the ball ended up in a decent spot where you can never 100 per cent predict, so I was quite happy with that. Started hitting some better shots on the back nine, and felt like a really good solid round for a Sunday today which leads into tomorrow's final round." Victor Perez
"I've been fighting it a little bit the last week or so. It wasn't a great weekend last weekend. There were some positive signs this week, but I fought it a lot yesterday. I will say that it felt great early but had a couple of good shots and got away with a couple of things. Made an interesting par on 4, almost hitting it into the hazard and sort of got away with a few bad shots. And sort of caught fire a little bit on the back nine. I hit some better shots. Got a little lucky a couple times on 13 and 14 and took advantage and probably left a couple out there the last two holes. You feel like you should birdie one of those, 17 or 18. But it's nice to be back in the mix at least." Ryan Fox
2023 Dubai Desert Classic Day 5 Weather
Sunny. Wind 7-8mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Rory McIlroy is heavy odds on favourite at 4/11. With perfect weather conditions forecast he has a fantastic chance to win in Dubai once again. It would be a shock were he not lifting the trophy once again.
It should be said that McIlroy isn't infallible. He has a ⭐⭐⭐⭐Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Rating and recent performances in contention have been acceptable rather than outstanding.
Callum Shinkwin is next in the betting at 20/1. The Englishman was never on our radar this week due to his poor record at this event but he's capable of low scores and could certainly challenge McIlroy should he get off to a fast start.
We expect at least one of the chasing pack at eleven under par to make a final round move.
Where is the value?
Two of the last three winners of this event started the final round in 13th place so winners can come from off the pace. However, McIlroy has a strong lead and it would be a surprise to see him fail to convert.
Round 4 Bets
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28th January 2023, 6:15pm (UK time)
Player | Total |
---|---|
Bland | -10 |
Pieters | -10 |
Thorbjornsen | -10 |
Arnaus | -9 |
Kinhult | -9 |
Syme | -9 |
Eight players tied | -8 |
2023 Dubai Desert Classic Day 3 Summary
We have finally reached the halfway point, albeit a day later than scheduled. The third round will be played on tomorrow, with a Monday finish now confirmed for the final round. The leaderboard is tightly packed with 21 players within three shots of the lead.
Notable Day 3 Dubai Desert Classic Quotes
"More of the same, really. I think I only hit two fairways today. So once you -- when you can't hit fairways around here, and the rough is quite thick, it's very hard to have any control of your ball and get it close into par 4s. Yeah, just a little rusty. Yeah, need to go do a little work." Rory McIlroy
" Driving doesn't feel very good, so we'll have to fix that. But all the rest is in good shape. Yeah, like I said the putting has kind of bailed me out." Thomas Pieters
"A lot of good memories from here. It's one of those golf courses, I didn't think I played that well the first two rounds but just scored really well. For some reason it really suits my eye and suits my game. I just feel really comfortable here. I feel like I can't play bad around here. It's a good week to start on. I feel like you can ease your game into it and get some confidence going in the season." Lucas Herbert
2023 Dubai Desert Classic Day 4 Weather
Sunny. The wind will blow around 4mph when players first tee off but rise to 9mph in the afternoon.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Rory McIlroy still heads the market but he has drifted from 6/4 to 11/4 after an indifferent round, only hitting 2/14 fairways and clearly not very happy with the state of his game. There certainly appears to be some rust there and whether he can sort his problems with the driver remains to be seen, but he looks worth taking on at 11/4.
It is a similar story for joint leader Thomas Pieters, who is next in the betting at 9/2. He is also struggling off the tee but putted beautifully on the back nine to share the lead. It is perhaps worrying for the field that those two are so high up the leaderboard without producing their best stuff, but the fact is they are not hitting fairways and both have to be taken on in our opinion.
Where is the value?
The past four winners of the Dubai Desert Classic have all been inside the top dozen after round two. However, given the bunched nature of the leaderboard, and the potential vulnerabilty of the market leaders off the tee, some enticing prices are out there and we will be taking a couple of them.
Round 3 Bets
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27th January 2023, 3:15pm (UK time)
Player | Total |
---|---|
Bland (thru 4) | -8 |
Poulter (thru 3) | -8 |
Hidalgo (thru 7) | -7 |
De Jager (thru 2) | -6 |
Reed | -6 |
McIlroy | -6 |
Five players tied | -5 |
2023 Dubai Desert Classic Day 2 Summary
The course was once again closed for several hours in the morning due to overnight rain. As a result, only one round has been completed by the field.
English pair, Richard Bland and Ian Poulter, were able to take advantage of soft conditions and relatively little wind to take the lead when play was halted due to darkness. Players will come back to the course tomorrow to finish their second round. The third round will be played on Sunday, with a Monday finish now confirmed for the final round
Notable Day 2 Dubai Desert Classic Quotes
"I struggled out there most of yesterday. I thought did I well to be under par by the end of the day. I fought back after some very sloppy rusty golf over the first sort of 14 holes. And then yeah, today I came out and I don't really know if anything clicked because I don't think I hit enough shots to know. But it was definitely needed. Like I would have been happy with anything around 70 the way I played, and then to come in and shoot 66 is quite the bonus." Rory McIlroy
"I'm obviously really happy with the way I played. I felt like last week wasn't really a reflection of all the hard work I've been doing in the off-season. It was more getting rusty on playing tournament golf. So to come out this week and feel like I was able to putt everything together and to have my mind right on game planning and course management was definitely a plus. I've never seen this place before, and coming in and seeing it for the first time and knowing and kind of realising that it's more of a positional golf course rather than just hit it wherever, and I feel like I had full control of the golf ball and made a couple putts." Patrick Reed
"I love the pressure. You know, I heard, I think it was Seve or Jacques Léglise, I don't remember, he said, if I don't feel pressure, I'm playing for nothing. So I like the pressure. So, well, it's my rookie year but last year I played a lot of tournaments and obviously Valderrama was like top one. So that gave me confidence to know I can play with Rory and the rest of the players, so yeah, go to the course and hit the ball." Angel Hidalgo
2023 Dubai Desert Classic Day 3 Weather
Sunny. The wind will blow around 7mph when players first tee off but rise to 14mph in the afternoon.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Rory McIlroy is 6/4 favourite to win. The world number 1 came back to the course on Friday morning to play his final thee holes in four under par. We mentioned in yesterday's blog that McIlroy could well be motivated by Patrick Reed's presence on the leaderboard. Reed's eagle at his last hole and the presence of several other LIV golfers, Richard Bland and Ian Poulter, certainly strengthens that argument.
McIlroy will play in the tougher conditions on Saturday and we're in no rush to back the 6/4. For all that we like McIlroy to win this event, a bigger price may be available this time tomorrow.
Tommy Fleetwood, Patrick Reed and Thomas Pieters are all priced up at 14/1 behind McIlroy. All three make appeal but their price is no more than fair given the quality at the top of the leaderboard.
Where is the value?
Leaders don't have a great record in this event in recent years. However, it has been necessary to be inside the top 12 after rounds one and two. The past four winners of the Dubai Desert Classic have all been inside the top dozen after round one and two.
Round 2 Bets
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26th January 2023, 4:25pm (UK time)
Player | Total |
---|---|
Pieters (thru 15) | -5 |
Wilson | -4 |
Gavins | -4 |
Jordan | -4 |
Reed (thru 16) | -4 |
Fleetwood (thru 15) | -4 |
Perez (thru 15) | -4 |
2023 Dubai Desert Classic Round 1 Summary
Heavy overnight rain left the course unplayable for the morning and round one didn't get underway until 1pm local time. The players with afternoon tee times have yet to tee off.
Notable Round 1 Dubai Desert Classic Quotes
"I feel pretty good. Struggled quite a lot off the tee today which is a bit frustrating, but my kind of putting kind of held me. I holed quite a lot of nice putts to keep me going. Disappointed with the tee shots but I'll sort that." Daniel Gavins
"I think it played fair. Obviously they guarded against some of the conditions, and they moved a few tees forward on holes like 12, where you normally are hitting long irons, and you're hitting short wedges. If you found fairways and had ball-in-hand, it was definitely playable." Thomas Pieters
2023 Dubai Desert Classic Round 2 Weather
Rain showers are forecast through the night and into Friday. The rain will stop around 1pm local time. Wind 11-15mph, with the wind forecast to be strongest at lunchtime.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Rory McIlroy battled back from a rusty opening nine holes to move into contention with a couple of birdies on his back nine. He has a 4ft birdie putt when play resumes to move to -3 and the 4/1 available is attractive.
McIlroy will certainly have been aware of the move made by Patrick Reed in the opening round and given his clear disdain for Reed, it would be no surprise to see him use that as extra motivation this week. Let's not forget McIlroy used the prospect of overtaking Greg Norman's PGA Tour victories as inspiration for his Canadian Open win last year.
Tommy Fleetwood can be backed at 10/1 with Thomas Pieters and Tyrrell Hatton available at 11/1. Hatton has yet to start his opening round and both Pieters and Fleetwood were impressive in round one, if slightly wayward off the tee.
Where is the value?
Much depends on how the weather affects play. Weather permitting, the afternoon starters will play both their rounds tomorrow in winds of least 11mph and possibly some light rain. In contrast, the players who played today will complete their second rounds on Saturday morning in ideal conditions (sunny with wind 4-9mph on Saturday morning).
Round 2 Bets
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