Results
Overall Profit/Loss: -7pts
Pre-Event Bets: -8.5pts
2pts Tyrrell Hatton Win Only - 7/1 @ Skybet
1pt EW Danny Willett (1/5 1-8) - 50/1 @ Skybet
0.75pts EW Rasmus Hojgaard (1/5 1-8) - 80/1 @ Betfair
0.5pts EW Kurt Kitayama (1/5 1-8) - 125/1 @ Betfair
0.5pts EW Chris Paisley (1/5 1-8) - 125/1 @ Betfair
0.5pts EW Haotong Li (1/4 1-5) - 140/1 @ Bet365
In-Play Bets: +1.5pts
28 January 2021 (-3pts)
1ptEW Wade Ormsby (1/5 1-5) - 90/1 @ Bet365
0.5ptsEW Jeff Winther (1/5 1-5) - 225/1 @ Bet365
29 January 2021 (+4.5pts)
1pt EW Brandon Stone (1/4 1-4) - 30/1 @ Skybet
1ptEW Lee Westwood (1/5 1-5) - 20/1 @ Betfair
Course Notes
Abu Dhabi
Once again, the winner didn't play Abu Dhabi. However, rest of the top 5 did, 3 of them missing the cut.
EW outsiders
Two of the top five (Stone and Samooja) both started at 200/1. Canter was 80/1.
Two Nines
The back nine plays considerably easier than the front nine. Holes 2, 3 and 5 are the only holes on the front nine with a scoring average of par or better.
Greens
The greens were extremely poor this year and are being replaced for the 2022 tournament.
Wind
In 2021, there was hardly any wind whatsoever. Wind was at its strongest on Saturday.
Hard to catch up
Paul Casey was never in any danger as both Stone and MacIntyre crumbled.
Player Notes
BRANDON STONE: Yeah, obviously extremely proud of the performance I put up this week. Played some lovely golf, considering I was -- I think I was 2- or 3-over through five holes on Thursday.
THOMAS DETRY: The course, it can bite you at any time. There's some thick rough around the green and hazards on tee shots, as well. Yeah, the key is knowing when to hitting a conservative shot and hitting aggressive shots.
JUSTIN HARDING: The course can be a bit challenging, especially in the afternoon. Greens get firm. The course has strong par 4s and if you miss the fairway, it certainly is a bit challenging. But you've just got to try and take advantage of a couple of par 5s out there and see what happens.
TOMMY FLEETWOOD: I think I've always preferred playing from the fairway than the rough so I tried to continue to do that. I didn't hit a fairway today until the 10th hole and then didn't miss one for the rest of the round. I think it's probably the sign of a great golf course that people have different opinions and how you can play it and stuff and hit different shots off different tees. I like that about the course. It gives you options.
Preview
Course Info
Course Designer - Karl Litten
Fairways: Wide
Rough: Average
Greens: Bermuda
Water Hazards: On 9 holes
Par 5's: 3rd, 10th, 13th, 18th
Hosted Since: 1989
Premium on: Putting
Weather Forecast
Warm and sunny all four days with peaks of 28 degrees.
Thurs - Sunny and moderate breeze. Wind peaks at 12mph late afternoon.
Fri - Sunny and moderate breeze. Wind peaks at 11mph early afternoon.
Sat - Sunny and moderate breeze. Wind peaks at 12mph late afternoon.
Sun - Sunny and moderate breeze. Wind peaks at 14mph early afternoon.
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
-This is only the second event of the 2021 European Tour season. You may see rust from some players.
-Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
Trends
Winning score
With the exception of last year, the winning score over the past nine years has ranged from -16 to -24. Wind and slightly more penal rough last year meant the winning score was only -9.
Price of Winner
Last year Lucas Herbert went off at 200/1. However, we've only seen two other winners above 100/1 in the past ten years.
Correlating Courses
The Portugal Masters, with its wide fairways and plentiful birdies, has plenty of crossover form. In general, recent winners here have all been strong links players, perhaps due to the afternoon winds that tend to arrive.
Course form
Absolutely crucial. Of the last ten winners, nine had posted a top 20 prior to winning. The only player who didn't, Haotong Li, had posted a top 40 finish in his only appearance prior to winning.
Recent form
Interestingly, five of the past six champions had either missed the cut or hadn't played the week before. However, be aware the Abu Dhabi Championship only began preceding Dubai in 2018. Every champion in the past seven years had teed it up in the calendar year prior to winning.
Nationality
Winners have hailed from a number of different countries.
Stats Analysis
Strokes Gained stats are available since 2018 on the European Tour. Preference is for a strong driver who finds a hot putter.
SG: Off The Tee
In the past three years no winner has ranked worse than 38th in this category. The past three champion rankings have been 5-11-38 (latest year first).
SG: Approach
In the past three years no winner has ranked inside the top 10 in this category. The past three champion rankings have been 74-16-27 (latest year first).
SG: Around the greens
Windy conditions last year meant short game was at a premium and this was evident as Herbert and runner up, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, ranked 5th and 3rd in this category. However, the two winners previously ranked 46th and 36th. With only moderate wind expected we can look past last year's results.
SG: Putting
The winner needs to putt well. The past three champions have ranked 18-5-3 in this category.
In Play
Tough Holes
Par 4's 6th, 9th and 12th traditionally play as the hardest on the course.
Birdie Holes
The four par 5s (3rd, 10th, 13th, 18th), played the easiest last year and need to be taken advantage of.
Fast or Slow Start
In the last nine years only two winners have opened with a score worse than 66 in round one! Seven of the past nine had been leading after the third round. It is not a course to play catch up unless conditions make it tough.
Closing stretch
The 17th and 18th both rank among the five easiest holes on the course. However, players must negotiate water up the last and we saw Christiaan Bezuidenhout hit his 3rd shot at the 72nd hole into the water.
Pre-Event Bets
2pts Win Only Tyrrell Hatton 7/1 @ Skybet
Tyrrell is short in the betting this week but we'd like to have him on our side given his fantastic record following a win. He's won seven times in his career and in his next start following the six wins prior to last week, his record reads 9-1-11-46-3-3. Crucially, he has shown he can back up a win with another win and that means we play him win only. He also has a very impressive record here with three top 8 finishes to his name. He cruised to his win last week and will come in this week brimming with confidence. We don't often back the favourite but we want him as part of the staking plan this week.
1pt Each Way (1/5 1-7) Danny Willett 50/1 @ Skybet
Danny has played Abu Dhabi four times since 2015. The best finish he could muster over that period was 54th. It was therefore hugely encouraging to see him finish 16th last week and even more encouraging that he signed off with a final round 68. He's a past champion here with several other top 20 finishes to his name. We expect him to go well this week.
0.75pts Each Way (1/5 1-8) Rasmus Hojgaard 80/1 @ Betfair
Rasmus is one of the hottest talents on the European Tour and very much a player to keep onside when he's playing well. He came firing out of the blocks after the 20 week break for coronavirus in 2020 with a run of form that read 2-6-3-1. He posted a 25th place finish last week with progressive stats. He does lack course form, having only played here for the first time last year where he missed the cut. However, he also missed the cut last year on his debut in Abu Dhabi in 2020 and that didn't stop him posting a solid effort last week. At the time of writing Rasmus is available at Bet365 at 100/1 but with only five each way places. We'd prefer the eight each way places, hence why we've taken the 80/1 at Betfair.
0.5pts Each Way (1/5 1-8) Kurt Kitayama 125/1 @ Betfair
It was a quiet 2020 for Kurt so it's easy to forget he is a two time winner on the European Tour. Wins in 2018 and 2019 showed he can get the job done if in contention and we're confident he can go well this week. A poor second round last week prevented him from posting a top 20 finish but that's good news for us as he remains under the radar. He posted a 6th place finish here last year after a 34th place finish in Abu Dhabi the week before. He finished 35th last week so a repeat performance this week would be ideal.
0.5pts Each Way (1/5 1-8) Chris Paisley 125/1 @ Betfair
Given the importance of course form here we wanted a pick who has solid course credentials. We almost put up Stephen Gallacher but Chris just edged it for us given his better play over the final two rounds last week. Chris has two top 15 finishes here in his past four starts. The best of those finishes was a 5th place finish in 2018. This came on the back of a run of form that read 1-5-5. He finished 7th last week and we're backing him to stay on a hot run, as he did in 2018. He had a slow start last week, but played the final three rounds only one shot worse than winner Tyrrell Hatton. Finally, he has excellent finishes at the Portugal Masters, an event that correlates nicely with this one.
0.5pts Each Way (1/4 1-5) Haotong Li 140/1 @ Bet365
Haotong won here in 2018 when holding off Rory McIlroy. He also has a 12th place finish in 2019, making it two top 12 finishes from four starts. Haotong missed the cut last week but it was a similar story prior to his win here in 2018 and he generally has a pretty poor record there so we aren't overly concerned. He's also a player who doesn't need to be in form prior to a win as both his European Tour wins have come immediately after a missed cut. He ranked 3rd for SG: Approach and 13th SG: Putting for his two rounds last week and only missed the cut due to two hole collapse on Friday where he dropped four shots. If he can fix the driver he'll go well this week.
