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The Players Championship 2024

Golf Picks Players Championship 2024, PGA Tour Players Championship Picks 2024
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Starts: 14th March 2024
Course: TPC Sawgrass, Florida
Par: 72
Length: 7,189 yards
2023 Champion: Scottie Scheffler

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2024 Players Championship Course Info

Designer: Pete Dye
Used Since: 1982
Type of Course: Parkland
Fairways: Average width
Rough: Medium (2.5 inches)
Greens: Tifeagle Bermuda (13 Stimp)
Water Hazards: On every hole
Par 5's: 2nd, 9th, 11th and 16th
Premium on: All round game

The event was played in May between 2007 and 2018.  The course played slightly differently in May as the weather was slightly better and the ball flew further in the slightly warmer conditions.

2024 Players Championship Trends

Winning Score
Since the event moved to a March slot in the calendar, winning scores have ranged from -13 to -19.  In the ten years before that, scores ranged from -10 to -18.

Debutants
38 of the 40 winners at TPC Sawgrass had played in at least one previous Players Championship.  The two that hadn't? Hal Sutton in 1983 and Craig Perks in 2002.

Course Experience
15 of the last 17 winners had made three or more starts at The Players Championship before winning.  The only players who hadn't? Si Woo Kim and Scottie Scheffler.

Course Form
Ten of the past eleven champions have posted a top 25 here prior to winning. Incidentally, five of those eleven had posted a top 6 finish.  Last year's winner, Scottie Scheffler, was the only player out of the eleven not to have posted a top 25 in this event prior to winning.

Played The Year Before
We're looking for someone who played in this event last year as the past 15 Players Championship winners played the event the year before winning.  Thirteen of those 15 made the cut.  Rory McIlroy and Jason Day were the only two winners to miss the cut the year prior to winning.

Wins on PGA Tour
Eleven of the past twelve winners had won an event on the PGA Tour before winning the Players Championship.  Martin Kaymer was the only Players Championship winner in those years who hadn't won on the PGA Tour before but he was an accomplished winner on the European Tour.

Draw Bias
Thirteen of the past fifteen winners have had an early tee time in round one, this includes the last EIGHT winners. 

Recent Form
Eleven of the last twelve champions had posted a top 22 finish on their last start before winning
. Cameron Smith was 33rd before his win in 2022 but had already won earlier in the year and was 4th in second last start. Form counts for a lot so factor that into your Players Championship picks.

Major Performance
15 of the past 16 winners of the Players had recorded a top three finish in a Major prior to winning.  The odd one out?  Si Woo Kim again!

World Ranking
The last eleven winners have had world rankings of 2-10-3-6-41-73-1-13-61-1-16 prior to winning.  We are looking for a player inside the world's top 75 when making Players Championship selections.

Correlating Courses
Consider events which use Pete Dye designed courses such as the RBC Heritage and Travellers Championship.

Nationality
Six of the last eleven winners have been American.

2024 Players Championship Stats Analysis

SG: Off The Tee
The last six winners have ranked 5-74-10-3-49-2. Cameron Smith was a significant outlier when winning in 2022 but most winners at TPC Sawgrass have shown strong stats off the tee.  

Driving Distance
The past eight champions have ranked 1-25-33-6-139-32-3-22.  It is undoubtedly better to be above average length off the tee at the Players Championship.

Driving Accuracy
The past eight champions have ranked 18-75-62-78-2-27-84-71.  Accuracy off the tee is only important for the shorter hitting players.

SG: Approach
The last six winners have ranked 4-5-5-7-92-21.  Strong SG: Approach numbers are preferred.

SG: Around The Green
The last six winners have ranked 4-20-12-39-5-4. A tidy short game is a big help around Sawgrass. 

SG: Putting
The last eight winners have ranked 48-1-42-59-1-59-9-30.  Tee to green strength is preferred.

2024 Players Championship In Play Golf Betting Advice

Tough Holes
The 5th, 8th, 18th and 14th play as the four hardest holes on the course.

Birdie Holes
The par 4 12th hole plays as one of the easiest holes with the four par 5s also birdie opportunities.

Closing Stretch
Water lurks on the three closing holes.  The par five 16th offers birdie opportunities.  The 17th and 18th are both treacherous and players are happy with pars on both holes.

Fast or Slow Start
A fast start is usually vital at Sawgrass.  Eight of the past nine champions have shot an opening round in the 60s.  It is also notable that two of the last nine winners have been first round leaders. It should be noted though, Justin Thomas was SEVEN shots back at halfway in 2021. 

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TPC Sawgrass 2021 Course Notes

Course Condition
The course played hardest on day one, with the organisers watering the greens to make them less firm following day one. The 17th green was extremely hard and we saw a lot of balls in the water, particularly on day one.  The green had been replaced the year before and was firmer than the rest of the greens.

Draw Bias
Players who played early-late had the better of the draw, both from course setup and wind (the wind was less on Friday afternoon than Thursday afternoon).  Justin Thomas's win means the last six winners have had an early tee time on Thursday. 

TPC Sawgrass 2022 Course Notes

Course Condition
There were significant weather interruptions.  Day one saw a soft golf course with little breeze whilst the wind picked up considerably on the Friday.  

Draw Bias
There was a significant draw bias once again with the top ten players at the halfway stage all playing in the AM-PM side of the draw.  Cameron Smith's victory was the seventh straight win for a player who started early on Thursday.

Will The Weather Be A Factor At The Players Championship 2024?

Available week of the event.

Previous Players Championship Tips & Blogs

You can access our historical Players Championship tips, previews and in-play blogs using the links below:

2023 Players Championship Picks

2022 Players Championship Picks

2021 Players Championship Picks

 

2024 PGA Tour Players Championship Picks

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In-play

2024 Players Championship In-Play Blog

17th March 2024, 12.50pm (UK time)

 
PlayerTotal
Schauffele -17
Clark -16
Harman -15
McNealy -13
Fitzpatrick -13
Two Players tied -12

2024 PLAYERS Championship Round 3 Conditions

Sunny intervals with a consistent breeze.

2024 PLAYERS Championship Round 4 Weather Bias?

Cloudy with wind 5-10mph, so little bias.

Round 4 Outright Market Summary

Xander Schauffele has taken over at the top of the leaderboard after Wyndham Clark stalled.  The reigning Olympic Champion is now a best price 5/4 to convert.

Schauffele has a reputation as a player who doesn't win as often as he should but one allegation that can't be levelled against him is that he's a weak front runner.  The world number six has converted each of his last 54 hole leads and he looks like he will be a tough nut to crack given he ranks third in SG: Tee to Green this week.

Schauffele may not have it all his own way given the way the last few Players Championships have played out.  Since the switch from May to March, only one third round leader has gone on to win and Schauffele has several Major champions in pursuit.  We don't expect Schauffele to throw this one away and it will take a strong round from one of the chasers to better him.

Eye Catching Niche Market Prices - PLAYERS Championship

Corey Conners to beat Tony Finau 18 Hole Mythical Matchbet 1/1 @ Bet365
Finau has yet to record a top 15 finish at TPC Sawgrass and hasn't impressed with his usually solid tee to green game so far this week.  The putter has been the strongest area of the American's game and that's perhaps an indictment of where his game is currently at.  In contrast, Conners has been outperforming Finau tee to green so far this week and is a shot better off.  Conners was over 50 places above Finau in the round 4 scoring averages last year and looks to be the value at even money with bet365.

 

PLAYERS Championship In-Play Picks - Round 4 Bets

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16th March 2024, 12.55pm (UK time)

 
PlayerTotal
Clark -14
Schauffele -10
Taylor -10
McNealy -9
Fitzpatrick -9
Four Players tied -8
   

2024 PLAYERS Championship Round 2 Conditions

The wind picked up for the afternoon starters, meaning Wyndham Clark was able to open up a four shot lead. 

2024 PLAYERS Championship Round 3 Weather Bias?

No bias with the wind rising to a max of 11mph. 

Round 3 Outright Market Summary

A shoulder injury to Scottie Scheffler was an unexpected curveball yesterday and he lost ground on leader Wyndham Clark, trailing him by six shots now. Clark is 15/8 favourite and leads by four over Schauffele and Taylor. He is certainly a leader we should be respecting, the US Open champion was solid in contention that week and also won the Wells Fargo last year when leading from the halfway point. 

There is hope for the field that Smith won from T11th place in 2022 and Thomas won from T22nd in 2021, seven shots back. Catch up is possible at Sawgrass and we should consider the value out there. 

Eye Catching Niche Market Prices - PLAYERS Championship

Max Homa to beat Scottie Scheffler 72 Matchbet 16/1 @ Betfred - With doubts surrounding Scheffler's fitness, the potential for him to withdraw from this event makes this a very appealing price. Homa is currently seven behind Scheffler and even if he manages to complete the event, it may be difficult to score if it continues to niggle him. The Masters is just around the corner and a slow start may make Scheffler consider the value of finishing. 

 

PLAYERS Championship In-Play Picks - Round 3 Bets

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15th March 2024, 9.55am (UK time)

 
PlayerTotal
Schauffele -7
McIlroy -7
Clark -7
Taylor -6
Fitzpatrick -6
Seven Players tied -5
   

2024 PLAYERS Championship Round 1 Conditions

Fairly calm conditions kept scores low on round one.

2024 PLAYERS Championship Round 2 Weather Bias?

We would slightly favour the early starters today with the wind starting at 3mph at 7am, rising to a max of 11mph. 

Round 2 Outright Market Summary

Scottie Scheffler remains favourite at 15/4 following an opening 67 but Rory McIlroy has closed the gap in the market, now 9/2 after an opening 65 to share the lead. Out of the two, Scheffler looks a far better price to us given his early start today and the fact he putted well yesterday. When Scheffler is gaining strokes on the greens, he tends to win so if he can keep that up he will be extremely tough to beat. There is a lot of quality at the top of the leaderboard though and we should consider value each way picks. 

Eye Catching Niche Market Prices - PLAYERS Championship

Scottie Scheffler bogey free round 10/1 @ Skybet - Scheffler opened with a bogey yesterday but played his next 17 holes without dropping a shot. He drove the ball beautifully and that is usually key as approach play is usually always strong. Price looks far too big given his tee to green excellence and a positive opening round on the greens. 

 

PLAYERS Championship In-Play Picks - Round 2 Bets

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