Preview
Course Info
Designer: Pete Dye
Used Since: 1982
Type of Course: Parkland
Fairways: Average width
Rough: Medium (2.5 inches)
Greens: Tifeagle Bermuda (13 Stimp)
Water Hazards: On every hole
Par 5's: 2nd, 9th, 11th and 16th
Premium on: All round game
Significant Info
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
The event was played in May between 2007 and 2018. The course played slightly differently in May as the weather was slightly better and the ball flew further in the slightly warmer conditions.
Weather
We have a mixed weather forecast this week with potential thunderstorms disrupting play.
Thursday
Potential thunderstorms with a max wind of 11mph.
Friday
Potential thunderstorms with a max wind of 12mph.
Saturday
Rain and 20mph winds.
Sunday
Sunny with 15mph winds.
Trends
Winning Score
2021 saw Justin Thomas win with -16. In 2019 the winning score was -19. In the ten years before that, scores ranged from -10 to -18.
World Ranking
The last five winners have ranked 3-6-41-73-1-13 prior to winning. You can get a winner who is outwith the favourites.
Correlating Courses
Consider events which use Pete Dye designed courses such as the RBC Heritage and Travellers Championship.
Course Form
Each of the past nine champions have posted a top 25 here prior to winning. Five of those nine had posted a top 6 finish.
Recent Form
Each of the last TEN champions had posted a top 22 finish on their last start before winning. Form counts for a lot!
Nationality
Five of the last nine winners have been American.
Draw Bias
Twelve of the past fourteen winners have had an early tee time on Thursday, this includes the last SIX winners.
Stats Analysis
In most categories we only have Strokes Gained stats for the last four tournaments. In general, we are looking for players who have strong SG: Off the tee stats and SG: Approach. 2021 winner Justin Thomas ranked 1st tee to green.
SG: Off The Tee
The last four winners have ranked 10-3-49-2. An important stat this week.
Driving Distance
The past six champions have ranked 33-6-139-32-3-22. A real mixed bag and not a key to success here.
Driving Accuracy
The past six champions have ranked 62-78-2-27-84-71. Accuracy off the tee is only important for the shorter hitting players.
SG: Approach
The last four winners have ranked 5-7-92-21. Again, Webb Simpson's stats skew the averages so we can say SG: Approach is preferred.
SG: Around The Green
The last four winners have ranked 12-39-5-4. A tidy short game is a big help around Sawgrass.
SG: Putting
The last six winners have ranked 42-59-1-59-9-30. Tee to green is preferred usually.
In Play
Tough Holes
The 5th, 8th, 18th and 14th were the four hardest holes on the course in 2019, all averaging >0.2 shots over par.
Birdie Holes
The par 4 12th hole played as he easiest hole with the four par 5s playing as the next easiest in 2019.
Closing Stretch
Water lurks on the three closing holes. The par five 16th offers birdie opportunities. The 17th and 18th are both treacherous and players are happy with pars on both holes.
Fast or Slow Start
A fast start is usually vital at Sawgrass. Six of the past seven champions have shot an opening round in the 60s and all but two of those six sat inside the top 7 after round one. It is also notable that two of the last seven winners have been first round leaders. It should be noted though, Justin Thomas was SEVEN shots back at halfway in 2021.
2021 Course Notes
Course Condition
The course played hardest on day one, with the organisers watering the greens to make them less firm following day one. The 17th green was extremely hard and we saw a lot of balls in the water, particularly on day one. The green had been replaced the year before and was firmer than the rest of the greens.
Draw Bias
Players who played early-late had the better of the draw, both from course setup and wind (the wind was less on Friday afternoon than Thursday afternoon). Justin Thomas's win means the last six winners have had an early tee time on Thursday.
In-play
In-Play Blog
14 March 2022, 7:35am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Lahiri (thru 47 holes) |
-9 |
| Hoge (thru 45 holes) |
-8 |
| Varner (thru 45 holes) |
-8 |
| Munoz (thru 50 holes) |
-7 |
| Casey (thru 45 holes) |
-7 |
| Burns (thru 45 holes) |
-7 |
A birdie at the par 5 11th hole just as play stopped was enough to give Anirban Lahiri a one shot lead going into the final day (hopefully!) of The Players Championship.
Yesterday saw the completion of the 2nd round and the start of the 3rd round. Conditions were cold but ultimately scoreable and the players who played their second round yesterday have had an enormous advantage. All of the current top 10 are players who benefited from the AM-PM draw bias.
Lahiri may lead but there are five others ahead of him in the betting this morning. Favourite is Sam Burns, at 7/1. Burns was wayward off the tee towards the end of the day and was fortunate to get away with a solitary dropped shot in his opening nine holes of his third round. He doesn't appeal at the odds.
In truth, the tournament is wide open with a round and a half to go. If we take Lahiri out of the equation for a second, there are 31 players separated by four shots. A strong finish this morning from the players at four or five under could well see them contend in the final round.
Weather for today's play should be cloudy/sunny with a max wind of 14mph in the afternoon.
Day 5 Bet
- 1.5pts Win Only Justin Thomas 16/1 @ Bet365
Justin has a 7ft birdie putt on the 12th hole when play resumes. Should he hole that he would move to five under par and find himself four shots off the lead. He was on the wrong side of the draw and although it's a hurdle to overcome, he's capable of doing so. Let's not forget he can draw upon last year's memory of being seven shots back at the halfway stage and he's capable of making up the ground on the leaders.
13 March 2022, 9:35am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Fleetwood (through 3) |
-6 |
| Hoge |
-6 |
| Mitchell |
-5 |
| Niemann |
-5 |
| Lahiri |
-5 |
It's Sunday morning of the Players but over half of the field still haven't completed round two and the picture is still very blurry.
The PM-AM starters have been dealt a harsh blow having to play all day in conditions that Justin Thomas described as "comical" after the round. The wind blew hard all day and 17 in particular was a bloodbath with ball after ball in the water.
It remains to be seen how much of an advantage the guys playing their 2nd rounds today will get, the forecast is for extremely cold temperatures and winds of 12-15mph in the morning so it is certainly not going to be easy.
The likes of Justin Thomas and Bubba Watson in the clubhouse at 3 under par will be very happy, and it is hard to imagine they are much more than four off the lead after 36 holes.
We were tempted by a couple of players in the clubhouse already - Russell Henley at 66, Bradley at 150 and Grace at 400, however the uncertainty of the conditions today is stopping us.
We're going to take our chances on a couple of players who can make a small move up the leaderboard into contention.
Day 4 Bets
- 0.75pts Each Way Aaron Wise 70/1 @ Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
Wise started his 2nd round nicely with a couple of birdies and will play the easier front nine in the colder conditions. He played solid last week finishing 17th and we expect him to hang in there again here. He hit 83% of greens on day one and is driving the ball long too which may help in this weather. Very much a player ready to win again on tour.
- 0.75pts Each Way Taylor Pendrith 80/1 @ Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
Pendrith is last group off today and should avoid the coldest of the weather. He produced his best ever finish at the Bermuda Championship last year, dominating the event most of the way before experience costing him, so he should be able to cope well with the tough conditions today. Four top 50's in his last five starts show his game is in solid shape and this looks like the perfect opportunity to bag another big finish.
11 March 2022, 9:35am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Fleetwood |
-6 |
| Hoge |
-6 |
| Mitchell |
-5 |
| Hickok |
-5 |
| Niemann |
-5 |
| Lahiri |
-5 |
Play was suspended due to darkness with most of the late starters still to play the majority of their round. They are due to resume early this morning where they may be able to squeeze a couple of hours play in before the thunder threat stops play again.
Conditions on day one were perfect with no wind and a soft damp golf course. It looks the same today so we should expect low scoring for the golf that is played.
The problem is, we don't know how much playing time they will be given today and as a result, we still don't know which side of the draw has an advantage with the wind expected to pick up to 23mph on Saturday, which will cause the players much more difficulty.
Tommy Fleetwood and Tom Hoge hold the early lead for now but we would be surprised to see them leading at the end of the day today given the soft conditions.
Day 2 Bets
- 0.75pts Each Way Max Homa 80/1 @ Bet Victor (1/5 1-5)
- 0.5pts Each Way Sepp Straka 200/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-6)
- 0.5pts Each Way Cameron Davis 250/1 @ William Hill (1/5 1-6)
We see value in these three prices given their nice start and plenty of holes to play in soft conditions today. It is a slight gamble that they get most of their two rounds in the easier conditions but if they do, they all have the ability to be a factor in this event.
