Starts: 10th March 2022
Course: TPC Sawgrass, Florida
Length: 7,189 yards
2021 Champion: Justin Thomas
Designer: Pete Dye
Used Since: 1982
Type of Course: Parkland
Fairways: Average width
Rough: Medium (2.5 inches)
Greens: Tifeagle Bermuda (13 Stimp)
Water Hazards: On every hole
Par 5's: 2nd, 9th, 11th and 16th
Premium on: All round game
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
The event was played in May between 2007 and 2018. The course played slightly differently in May as the weather was slightly better and the ball flew further in the slightly warmer conditions.
We have a mixed weather forecast this week with potential thunderstorms disrupting play.
Potential thunderstorms with a max wind of 11mph.
Potential thunderstorms with a max wind of 12mph.
Rain and 20mph winds.
Sunny with 15mph winds.
2021 saw Justin Thomas win with -16. In 2019 the winning score was -19. In the ten years before that, scores ranged from -10 to -18.
The last five winners have ranked 3-6-41-73-1-13 prior to winning. You can get a winner who is outwith the favourites.
Consider events which use Pete Dye designed courses such as the RBC Heritage and Travellers Championship.
Each of the past nine champions have posted a top 25 here prior to winning. Five of those nine had posted a top 6 finish.
Each of the last TEN champions had posted a top 22 finish on their last start before winning. Form counts for a lot!
Five of the last nine winners have been American.
Twelve of the past fourteen winners have had an early tee time on Thursday, this includes the last SIX winners.
In most categories we only have Strokes Gained stats for the last four tournaments. In general, we are looking for players who have strong SG: Off the tee stats and SG: Approach. 2021 winner Justin Thomas ranked 1st tee to green.
SG: Off The Tee
The last four winners have ranked 10-3-49-2. An important stat this week.
The past six champions have ranked 33-6-139-32-3-22. A real mixed bag and not a key to success here.
The past six champions have ranked 62-78-2-27-84-71. Accuracy off the tee is only important for the shorter hitting players.
The last four winners have ranked 5-7-92-21. Again, Webb Simpson's stats skew the averages so we can say SG: Approach is preferred.
SG: Around The Green
The last four winners have ranked 12-39-5-4. A tidy short game is a big help around Sawgrass.
The last six winners have ranked 42-59-1-59-9-30. Tee to green is preferred usually.
The 5th, 8th, 18th and 14th were the four hardest holes on the course in 2019, all averaging >0.2 shots over par.
The par 4 12th hole played as he easiest hole with the four par 5s playing as the next easiest in 2019.
Water lurks on the three closing holes. The par five 16th offers birdie opportunities. The 17th and 18th are both treacherous and players are happy with pars on both holes.
Fast or Slow Start
A fast start is usually vital at Sawgrass. Six of the past seven champions have shot an opening round in the 60s and all but two of those six sat inside the top 7 after round one. It is also notable that two of the last seven winners have been first round leaders. It should be noted though, Justin Thomas was SEVEN shots back at halfway in 2021.
2021 Course Notes
The course played hardest on day one, with the organisers watering the greens to make them less firm following day one. The 17th green was extremely hard and we saw a lot of balls in the water, particularly on day one. The green had been replaced the year before and was firmer than the rest of the greens.
Players who played early-late had the better of the draw, both from course setup and wind (the wind was less on Friday afternoon than Thursday afternoon). Justin Thomas's win means the last six winners have had an early tee time on Thursday.