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2023 Honda Classic Tips
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Event Info
Starts: 23rd February 2022
Course: PGA National (Champion), Florida
Par: 70
Length: 7,125 yards
2022 Champion: Sepp Straka
Course Info
Designer: Fazio (Nicklaus re-design in 1990 & 2014)
Used Since: 2007
Fairways: Average
Rough: Bermuda (2 inch)
Greens: TifEagle Bermuda (12 stimp)
Water Hazards: On 14 holes
Par 5's: 3rd & 18th
Premium on: Approach Play
Significant Info
After two elevated events in a row, we see a significantly weaker field this week as the top players take a rest before The Players Championship in a few weeks.
Weather
Thursday
Sunny. Max 14mph winds forecast
Friday
Light Rain Showers. Max 11mph winds forecast
Saturday
Thundery Showers. Max 11mph winds forecast
Sunday
Sunny. Max 11mph winds forecast
Trends
Winning Score
Since the Jack Nicklaus course alterations in 2014, the winning score has been between -6 and -12. Sepp Straka won with -10 last year
Course Form
Each of the past ELEVEN champions have played this event at least once before winning. Avoid debutants. Six of the last nine winners had recorded a top 13 finish at the Honda prior to their win. Sepp Straka hadn't, although had two top 40's in his two previous starts.
Recent Form
Sepp Straka was 15th at the Genesis prior to his win. Neither of the previous three champions had recorded a top 25 in their previous two starts. However, the three winners before them all recorded a top 10 in their last start prior to Honda. Recent form can be seen as an advantage but not necessary.
World Ranking
The world ranking of the past seven champions have been 176-83-34-161-4-14-13. Keith Mitchell and Sepp Straka were the two outside the top 100 and they have both since become top 50 players.
Nationality
Five of the last eleven winners have been American.
Stats Analysis
SG: Off The Tee
The last five winners have ranked 1-10-15-21-23. A lot of importance off the tee here.
Driving Distance
The last seven winners have ranked 15-23-74-12-2-7-11. In general, distance is a definite advantage.
Driving Accuracy
The last seven winners have ranked 1-27-21-89-103-24-14. Helps, but not essential.
SG: Approach
The last five winners have ranked 20-7-5-7-2. Accurate approach play is crucial here.
SG: Around The Green
The last five winners have ranked 25-2-9-8-29. A tidy short game is a big advantage on this tough course.
SG: Putting
The last seven winners have ranked 4-25-58-57-39-28-31. A hot putter isn't essential
In-Play Golf Betting Advice
Tough Holes
Although The Bear Trap (15-17) is infamous, the 14th played as the toughest hole last year.
Birdie Holes
The par 5's (3rd and 18th) play as the easiest holes. The easiest hole outside of those is the short par 4 13th.
Closing Stretch
Holes 15-17, collectively known as The Bear Trap, are a tough stretch of holes. The 18th offers a birdie opportunity.
Fast or Slow Start
We've seen winners get off to fast starts and recover from slow starts at PGA National. Sepp Straka won last year after being seven shots back after round one whilst Sungjae Im won in 2020 having been 63rd after round 1. Four of the last six winners have been in the top 20 after round one though.
2023 Honda Classic Tips
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In-play
Honda Classic In-Play Blog
26th February 2023, 11:25am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Kirk |
-13 |
| Cole |
-11 |
| Suh |
-10 |
| Taylor B |
-9 |
| Lowry |
-9 |
2023 Honda Classic Round 3 Summary
Chris Kirk received a fortuitous drop on the 18th hole to set up a birdie and extend his lead to two shots through three rounds.
Notable Round 1 Honda Classic Round 3 Quotes
"I thought we hit the ball great today. We were putting it in the fairway, hitting greens. The hole looked pretty small today. Couldn't make any putts. I was hitting it with good speed and just kept on reading it wrong. I thought I was hitting good strokes. On the last hole I don't even know what happened. Felt like it hit something. But there's always tomorrow, so we'll try to have a better putting day tomorrow." Justin Suh
"Yeah, it's probably not that different of a feeling. It's been so long since I've won. I'm going to be plenty nervous, just as nervous as those guys are probably. I think that way more so than my four wins on TOUR, I'll be able to draw from how well I played at Sony and Amex. I didn't win any of those events, but I really felt like I really played great, got pretty comfortable in that situation in the heat, so I think that if I just continue to go do my job and go execute, then there's no reason why it shouldn't turn out different this time." Chris Kirk
"I'm not sure anyone is ever really comfortable on this course. It's pretty demanding and intimidating when you're on some of those tee boxes. I am hitting the ball well, so that makes it feel a little bit more comfortable, I'd say." Eric Cole
2023 Honda Classic Round 4 Weather
Mostly sunny all day. Wind 5-9mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Chris Kirk is the 11/10 favourite with one round to go. The four time PGA Tour winner was advised to subscribers earlier this week at 40/1 and is very much the man we want to win. Leading the SG: Tee to Green stats this week, he has every chance to win.
Kirk has a ⭐⭐⭐ Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Rating. He was in contention at the Sony Open earlier this year and whilst he didn't disgrace himself, he dropped from 2nd to 3rd in the final round. That experience should stand him in good stead for today though and he's certainly got more recent contention experience than several others on the leaderboard.
Eric Cole has yet to win on the Korn Ferry Tour or PGA Tour. He is available to back at 5/1 and given that he ranks third in SG: Tee to Green through the opening three rounds, he's playing well enough to win. His last two efforts in contention on the Korn Ferry Tour have seen him improve his 54 hole position. However, this is his first time contending on the PGA Tour and of the top four in the betting, he makes least appeal.
Shane Lowry was unlucky not to win this event last year when he was caught in a torrential burst of rain in the final few holes. It looked like his fortunes were being reversed when his over hit chip on the 11th struck the pin and went in the hole. However, bogeys at the 14th and 17th set his challenge back and the 13/2 is now a tempting price.
Yesterday's leader, Justin Suh, had a very poor day on the greens but his long game was in good shape and he too can't be discounted at 15/2.
Where is the value?
Sungjae Im (2020) is the only winner in the last five years who hasn't been in the final pairing. With Kirk already in our staking plan, we're not looking any further than the players at nine under par or better.
Round 4 Bet
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25th February 2023, 10:25am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Suh |
-10 |
| Kirk |
-9 |
| Gerard |
-8 |
| Taylor B |
-8 |
| Three players tied |
-7 |
2023 Honda Classic Round 2 Summary
Round two panned out perfectly for us as leaders Billy Horschel and Joseph Bramlett both shot 73 and our 40/1 in-play tip Chris Kirk shot 62 to get into 2nd place. He is one behind Justin Suh who went round in 64.
Notable Round 1 Honda Classic Round 2 Quotes
"It feels good. You know, I think we've been trending in the right direction. Every week I've been improving and just certain spots, and I think it's gratifying just to see the progressive work pay off." Justin Suh
" I know I had a great chance to play well this week. I like this golf course. I've played here before. But I felt like I was playing with a little bit of house money." Ryan Gerard
2023 Honda Classic Round 3 Weather
Mostly sunny all day. The conditions appear to be calm in the morning rising to 10mph in the afternoon.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Justin Suh is marginal favourite at 10/3 given he has a one shot advantage. He putted extremely well yesterday which was the basis of his low round and will do well to back that up today. Suh has made his last eight cuts so you can't say a performance like this wasn't coming and a winner of the Korn Ferry Tour Championship in September last year, he should be respected.
Our suspicion though, is that he will have his work cut out to get the better of Chris Kirk, who we tipped up yesterday at 40/1. Kirk has a good record here and ranked 3rd tee to green, whilst also putting beautifully. He must be in very confident mood heading into the weekend, aiming to improve on his 3rd place finishes at Amex and Sony. At 7/2, he is preferred to Suh in the betting.
Ben Taylor is next in the betting at 11/1 and it is frustrating not to be on him given his best finishes this season have come at Houston and Sony - two events we feel correlate nicely to here. He is a genuine danger to the leaders.
Where is the value?
We saw yesterday how fast the leaderboard can change around here and we should expect some early movers from the chasing pack before the wind arrives and it firms up a touch.
Round 3 Bet
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24th February 2023, 9:25am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Bramlett |
-5 |
| Horschel |
-5 |
| Coody |
-4 |
| Suh |
-4 |
| Young (thru 15) |
-4 |
| Eight players tied |
-3 |
2023 Honda Classic Round 1 Summary
Billy Horschel and Joseph Bramlett took the morning lead and no one has been able to match them. Carson Young still has the chance to with two remaining holes as play was suspended due to darkness.
Notable Round 1 Honda Classic Round 1 Quotes
"Yeah, there's a saying: Beware of the injured or sick golfer. I'm not like super, super sick, but I'm just not like a hundred percent. I think you just sort of, you're a little bit easier on yourself. You're sort of not worrying about everything. I guess you can just say you always got to be aware of the injured or sick golfer." Billy Horschel
"Yeah, I definitely like when the conditions are difficult and guys have to really earn it. I think that's historically always been in my favour. So I really enjoy it. I was really looking forward to getting to this golf course this week." Joseph Bramlett
2023 Honda Classic Round 2 Weather
Mostly sunny all day. The conditions appear to be calm in the morning rising to 10mph in the afternoon.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Despite falling two back of Horschel, Sungjae Im remains favourite after an opening 67 in the afternoon. He will have the opportunity to set the target for Horschel and co. He drove the ball well yesterday, ranking 8th off the tee. However, his approach play hasn't been at it's usual standard since Genesis. If he gain find his iron game, the 2020 champion could be tough to beat this week.
Horschel performed admirably considering he has been feeling under the weather and admitted he is "nowhere near 100%". We would be hesitant to back him at 13/2 under those circumstances although he appeared unaffected yesterday, he could regress as the week goes on.
Joseph Bramlett and Shane Lowry are next best at 12/1 and out of the two, Lowry would be preferred. He ranked 1st tee to green yesterday and appears to have found something with his swing last week at Genesis. Bramlett built his score with his short game in round one but is obviously still a threat.
Where is the value?
We've seen winners get off to fast starts and recover from slow starts at PGA National. Sepp Straka won last year after being seven shots back after round one whilst Sungjae Im won in 2020 having been 63rd after round 1. Four of the last six winners have been in the top 20 after round one though.
Round 2 Bet
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