Starts: 14th October 2021
Course: The Summit Club, NV
Length: 7,431 yards
2020 Champion: Jason Kokrak
Overall Profit/Loss: +15pts
Pre-Event Bets: +9.25pts
1pt EW Joaquin Niemann 50/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-7)
0.75pts EW Maverick McNealy 60/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-7)
0.5pts EW KH Lee 125/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-7)
0.5pts EW Branden Grace 125/1 @ William Hill (1/5 1-7)
0.5pts EW Rickie Fowler 150/1 @ 10bet (1/4 1-5)
2pts Charl Schwartzel Top 20 Finish 5/1 @ Betfair
0.75pts EW Jason Kokrak to be FIRST ROUND LEADER 50/1 @ Betfred (1/5 1-6)
In-Play Bets: +5.75pts
14 October 2021(+7pts)
1.25pts EW Hideki Matsuyama 25/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-5)
0.75pts EW Rickie Fowler 60/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-5)
Designer: Tom Fazio
Used Since: 2021
Water Hazards: In-play on 5 holes.
Premium on: Approach play
The course plays to an elevation of around 3,000 feet this week.
Last year's CJ Cup course, Shadow creek, was also a Fazio design.
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
Conditions should be ideal all week.
Sunny, max winds 7mph.
Sunny, max winds 10mph.
Sunny, max winds 7mph.
Partly cloudy, max winds 7mph.
This course is being used for the first time so we have no trends to analyse.
With this being the first event played here, we have no stats available to us. Some quotes give us an insight however,
"Fazio has done such a phenomenal job. The fairways are really wide, and he has beautiful bunkering." - Tony Renaud, Vice President of Sales at The Summit Club.
"I would say this is a little bit more of a desert golf course than Shadow Creek is, but the grass is the same, the greens are -- they're kind of the same. They're very smooth, but they're definitely not as firm as Shadow Creek was last year." - Jason Kokrak
"There's a little bit of depth perception I think for the players are going to have to deal with this week as far as looking up or down. The carry numbers for some of these bunkers and lines, it will be a difficult test. But the golf course is soft. Just coming out of reseeding, it will play softer. The wind will help keep it a little firmer, but it will be a nice test. I don't think it will be quite as tough as Shadow Creek, but it's a fun golf course to play." - Jason Kokrak
"From what I remember it's all pretty right in front of you and it's not too much tricked up or hidden and I would think the scores would be pretty low this week." - Justin Thomas
"You're going to see guys hitting certain shots that might land near the pins and roll off. It might not roll off down funnels and kind of bowls off the green, but it's going to roll pretty far away. You might be seeing a lot of 50-footers, 40-footers, so you're going to see some approach shots that's really going to test that to put it in the right spot. You're going to see a lot of attacking on the par 5s, you're going to see a lot of eagles this week." - Collin Morikawa
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The CJ Cup In-Play Blog
17th October 2021, 11.30am (UK time)
Our 150/1 pre-event selection, Rickie Fowler, leads the way by 2 shots at the CJ Cup.
We've been stong on Fowler all week, having also tipped him up in-play at 60/1 after the first round and suggesting he was value after round 2 at 33/1.
Ordinarily we'd be concerned about Fowler's ability to close this out given he has a 2⭐ Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Rating. He's only converted two of seven 54 hole leads in his career and he's been out of contention for a considerable period now.
However, his recent struggles may well put this round in perspective. He also has considerable course experience, due to the fact he has a property on the complex. The wind is due to switch today and Rickie will be one of the few players to have played the course in different wind conditions. Add in the fact he is due to become a father next month and we may well see things come together for Fowler.
Rory McIlroy is the obvious threat to our position on the leader. Like Fowler, Rory has also had a disappointing patch of golf over the past 18 months and both players will feel a win will go a long way towards righting previous wrongs. Ominously for us, yesterday was the first time Rory gained strokes with his approach play and if he maintains that level of ball striking today, he's a huge threat to Fowler.
However, Rory too has had his problems in contention of late. Disappointing in Abu Dhabi at the start of the year, he also went backwards at the US Open in June. Of course, he won the Wells Fargo Championship in May but even then he didn't look altogether assured.
This is anything but a two horse race given the three players at 18 under par are all capable of mounting a charge. Abraham Ancer is always a danger when coming from off the pace on a Sunday. Adam Scott has been uncharacteristically hot on the greens (4th SG: Putting) and Robert Streb has already recorded a 61 and 65 this week.
Conditions for the 4th round will be sunny with wind peaking around 11mph.
Round 4 Bet
- No Bet - We are far from sure Rickie is going to get the job done so wouldn't put anyone off taking some profit if you are on at a big price. If it were a two horse race, we would recommend covering McIlroy but the nature of the course means we could see a winner from off the pace and there are pletnty still in this. We will have our fingers crossed that Fowler continues his fine ball striking and comes in for us.
16th October 2021, 10.40am (UK time)
Keith Mitchell backed up his opening round of 62 with a round of 64 and now leads the CJ Cup by five shots.
Mitchell is now 2/1 favourite to win his 2nd PGA Tour title. Mitchell has gained over 7 shots on the field on the greens so far this week and it's hard to see him maintining or even extending that lead through 54 holes. He was poor when leading at the Wells Fargo earlier this year and the 2/1 isn't a price we'd be keen to take.
Jordan Spieth is the player the bookmakers rate as most likley to catch Mitchell. The American is rated as a 6/1 chance to win from here. His trademark touch around the greens has been evident this week but his driving has also been strong and he's certainly a danger over the weekend.
Rickie Fowler (33/1) remains a value bet in our opinion given the strength of his play tee to green this week (2nd SG: Tee To Green). However, we are already on him pre-event and in-play (see yesterday's blog) so we are happy to let the 3rd round play out and assess the leaderboard before the final round.
Conditions for the 3rd round will be sunny with wind peaking around 7mph.
Round 3 Bet
- No bet
15th October 2021, 10.40am (UK time)
Extremely low scoring in Vegas means that Robert Streb only leads by one despite shooting a 61. He is closely followed by Keith Mitchell and Harry Higgs sits in third to complete an unlikely leaderboard.
Viktor Hovland is now favourite to win from four shots back and it very much has the feel of an event where we may see a lot of change to the leaderboard. One off day will probably lead to a player plummeting down the places so beware of backing the leaders at tempting prices.
There will be a tad more breeze today but nothing too much to worry about and there doesn't appear to be any draw bias. We have selected two players at six under par that are the value in our eyes.
Round 2 Bets
- 1.25pts Each Way Hideki Matsuyama 25/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-5)
Hideki opened with a bogey free round of 66. He ranked 5th SG: Tee To Green and only a cold putter held him back from going lower. He's a proven desert performer having twice won the Phoenix Open and odds of 25/1 are more than fair for a player who is a major winner and former world number 1.
- 0.75pts Each Way Rickie Fowler 60/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-5)
Rickie was one of our pre-event picks at 150/1 and we can't resist a top up at 60 after his opening round. He was bogey free, ranking 2nd tee to green and top 10 for approach/off the tee. Unbelievably he ranked 4th for driving distance and it has been noticeable in recent weeks he has increased his length off the tee. He's over priced at 60/1.