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Mexico Open at Vidanta 2024

 
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Starts: 22nd February 2024
Course: The Signature Course, Vidanta Villarta
Par: 71 
Length: 7,456 yards
2023 Champion: Tony Finau

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2024 Mexico Open Course Info

Designer: Greg Norman
Used Since: 2022
Fairways: Wide
Rough: Minimal
Greens: Paspalum, 12 on Stimp.
Water Hazards: On 13 holes, particularly on 6th & 7th
Par 5's: 6th, 12th, 14th and 18th
Premium on: Distance, strong wind players.
 

2024 Mexico Open Trends

Winning Score
Winning scores have been -17 and -24 in the two events played at Vidanta Vallarta.  

Course Form
This event has only been played for two years at Vidanta Vallarta so very little course form to go on.  However, many of the players who were in contention in 2022 were also in contention in 2023 (Jon Rahm, Tony Finau, Brandon Wu, Cameron Champ etc).  Course form is definitely advantageous but not necessarily essential.

World Ranking
Rahm was world number 2 and heavy favourite when winning in 2022.  Tony Finau was also heavily fancied when winning last year and was world number 16 the week he won.

Correlating Courses
Club de Golf Chapultepec which hosted the WGC Mexico Championship in 2017-2020 may be a handy guide as Rahm has two 3rd place finishes there. 

The World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba was the other event played in Mexico on tour, both are played on Paspalum grass and designed by Greg Norman but this week's course is more than 400 yards longer and more emphasis on distance over accuracy here. 

Age
With the exception of Tony Finau, the top four in each of the two Mexico Opens played at Vidanta Vallarta have been in their twenties.

2024 Mexico Open Trends Shortlist

Given there have been only two events held at Vidanta Vallarta, we do not have enough data to prepare a trends shortlist.

"It's a very long course, it's tough. It starts blowing and the greens are firm, so hitting a lot of par 4s with long irons is the key. Obviously being long like we saw last year is very important when Jon won and I think Cameron Champ was in the final group. Obviously there's an advantage for the long hitters, but you still have to hit it in the fairways and make putts." Nico Echavarria, 2023

2024 Mexico Open Stats Analysis

SG: Off The Tee
The top four in 2022 and 2023 all ranked inside the top 20 off the tee. 

Driving Distance
The top four in 2022 and 2023 all ranked inside the top 36 in driving distance. 

Driving Accuracy
Out of the top 10, only Jon Rahm and Brandon Wu were in the top 20 for driving accuracy in 2022.  Two of the top four in 2023 were inside the top 20 for Driving Accuracy. Accuracy off the tee isn't essential.

SG: Approach
Rahm ranked 30th for approach when winning in 2022 but five of the top ten were in the top 10 for approach that year.  Last year, only one (Akshay Bhatia) of the top four was inside the top 10 for SG: Approach.

SG: Around The Green
Out of the top 10 in 2022, only Tony Finau ranked inside the top 20 around the greens. Two of the top four in 2023 were in the top 20 for SG: Around The Green.

SG: Putting
Four of the top five ranked inside the top 10 for putting.  Everyone in the top four in 2023 ranked inside the top 10 for SG: Putting.

"I think this golf course requires a lot of shots between about 140 and 200. There's not a lot of wedges out there unless you get some holes downwind or something. That's why I kind of played good today, my iron play was good. I didn't stuff a lot of them, but I hit them on the right sides and made a couple 15-, 20-footers. They're big greens, you've kind of got to put them in the right spots to have a good look." Stephen Jaeger, 2023

2024 Mexico Open In Play Tips

Birdie Holes
The 7th is a driveable par 4, but water is in play so it's very much risk/reward.

Closing Stretch
16th
is a 500+ yard par 4, 17th is 226 yard par 3 with water all on the left but the 548 yard 18th should offer a great birdie/eagle opportunity. 

Fast or Slow Start
Winners in 2022 and 2023, Jon Rahm and Tony Finau, both made fast starts (both were no worse than two shots behind the round one leader).  However, it is possible to get an each way place in this event having gotten off to a slower start.

"It (the wind)was hard, it certainly was. We were laughing about it. The par 5, I think it's 605, 610 yards and I hit a really good drive, but I hit 5-iron into that green on my second shot. And then No. 8 was a par-4 and I had 3-wood in on my second shot." Alex Smalley, 2023

Previous Mexico Open tips

You can access our historical Mexico Open picks and in-play blogs using the links below:

2023 Mexico Open Picks

2022 Mexico Open Picks 

2024 Mexico Open Tips

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In-play

2024 Mexico Open In-Play Blog

25 February 2024, 10.55am (UK time)

 
PlayerTotal
Knapp -19
Valimaki -15
Norlander -12
Silverman -12
Kim -12
Four Players Tied -11
   

2024 Mexico Open Round 3 Conditions

Sunny with moderate breeze, much the same as the first two rounds.

2024 Mexico Open Round 4 Weather Bias?

No, conditions should be similar with the wind reaching 10mph.

Round 4 Outright Market Summary

Jake Knapp was excellent yesterday shooting a 63 to take a four shot lead of Sami Valimaki. Poor performances from Van Rooyen, Wallace and Ortiz means the rest of the field are seven shots back of Knapp. Given how he is playing and the size of his lead, he should close this out now unless we see some fireworks from Valimaki. Odds of 1/4 provide no value though and likewise Valimaki isn't tempting us at 5/1. 

Eye Catching Niche Market Prices - Mexico Open

Robert MacIntyre without 'Knapp and Valimaki' market 8/1 @ Skybet - MacIntyre looks a touch of value in this specials market, he is one behind the group at 12 under par and playing fantastic stuff. He ranked 2nd for approach yesterday and 3rd off the tee. The group on 12 look vulnerable and he could take advantage. 

 

Mexico Open In-Play Picks - Round 4 Bets

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24 February 2024, 10.55am (UK time)

 
PlayerTotal
Wallace -11
Valimaki -11
Ortiz -11
Knapp -11
Van Rooyen -10
Novak -8
Hubbard -8

2024 Mexico Open Round 2 Conditions

Sunny with moderate breeze, much the same as round one.

2024 Mexico Open Round 3 Weather Bias?

No, conditions should be much the same as rounds one and two.

Round 3 Outright Market Summary

Jake Knapp edges favouritism at 4/1 going into the weekend in Mexico.  The 29 year old rookie was mightily impressive in round two, putting on a superb tee to green performance and it is no surprise to see him lead the SG: Tee to Green stats through the opening 36 holes.

However, Knapp has yet to win at a level higher than the Canadian Tour and a victory this week would be a significant step up.  He spoke of the benefits of being in contention at the Farmers Insurance Open a few weeks ago but there is a significant difference in being on the fringes of contention and leading.  He will be difficult to beat if he continues to play as he has done but 4/1 feels a fraction short.

Eye Catching Niche Market Prices - Mexico Open

Nothing of note.

 

Mexico Open In-Play Picks - Round 3 Bets

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23 February 2024, 00.55am (UK time)

 
PlayerTotal
Van Rooyen -8
Valimaki -7
Lipsky -6
Norlander -6
Del Solar -6
Daffue -6
Six players tied  -5

2024 Mexico Open Round 1 Conditions

Sunny with moderate breeze.

2024 Mexico Open Round 2 Weather Bias?

No, conditions should be much the same as round one and fairly consistent throughout the day.

Round 2 Outright Market Summary

Erik Van Rooyen leads the way after an opening round of 63.  The South African is aiming to make it a Mexican double following his win at the World Wide Technologies Championship in Mexico in November.

Whilst Van Rooyen's win a few month ago was impressive, the jury is still out on his abilities as a front runner.  This is Van Rooyen's first round one lead since 2016 and both PGA Tour wins have come from positions where he was playing catch up.

The past two events held at Vidanta Vallarta suggest that getting off to a fast start has been important for winners.  Both winners were leaders at halfway and both were inside the top four after round one.  We certainly respect Van Rooyen's chances but we're considering others who offer slightly better value.

Eye Catching Niche Market Prices - Mexico Open

Fred Biondi to beat Pierceson Coody and Raul Pereda 7/5 @ Bet365
Biondi won this three ball by two and seven shots in round one and looks a reasonable price to take it again.  The young Brazilian has shown himself to be a consistent performer of late, making his last six cuts and gained strokes tee to green in round one.  In contrast, Pereda and Coody posted some of the worst tee to green stats in round one and look worth opposing.

 

Mexico Open In-Play Picks - Round 2 Bets

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