Golf Betting Club
  • Home
  • Join the Club
  • Golf Betting Tips
  • Tipping Record
  • Blog
  • About

Join The Club

Mexico Open at Vidanta 2023

 

 

  • Preview
  • In-play

Preview

2023 Mexico Open Tips

You can sign up for all our Mexico Open tips and PGA Tour tips for 2023 by clicking the button below.

Sign Up For All Our Tips

Event Info

Starts: 27th April 2023
Course: The Signature Course, Vidanta Villarta
Par: 71 
Length: 7,456 yards
2022 Champion: Jon Rahm

Course Info

Designer: Greg Norman
Used Since: 2022
Fairways: Wide
Rough: Minimal
Greens: Paspalum, 12 on Stimp.
Water Hazards: On 13 holes, particularly on 6th & 7th
Par 5's: 6th, 12th, 14th and 18th
Premium on: Distance, strong wind players.
 

Significant Info

Wind should blow all day, usually picks up around 2-3pm. Afternoon conditions should be tougher.

The course is at sea level, so altitude is not so much of a factor meaning the course plays long.

There have been a number of WGC's played in Mexico.

Mexico Open Weather

Available week of the event. 

Thursday

Friday

Saturday

Sunday

Mexico Open Trends

Winning Score
The tournament director predicted -18 last year and he was very close with Rahm winning on -17. 

Course Form
New event last year so no course form to go on. Jon Rahm had two 3rd places in the WGC Mexico Championship in 2020 and 2017 though. 

Recent Form
Rahm was 27th in his last start at the Masters and L16 at the World Match Play. Recent form of the remainder of the top 5 were as follows;

Finau - 35-29
Kitayama - 38-MC
Wu 21-28
Riley 4-MC

World Ranking
Rahm was world number 2 and heavy favourite. 

Correlating Courses
Club de Golf Chapultepec which hosted the WGC Mexico Championship in 2017-2020 may be a handy guide as Rahm has two 3rd place finishes there. 

The World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba is the other event played in Mexico on tour, both are played on Paspalum grass and designed by Greg Norman but this week's course is more than 400 yards longer and more emphasis on distance over accuracy here. 

Mexico Open Stats Analysis

We can only look at the stats from 2022.

SG: Off The Tee
The top five in 2022 all ranked inside the top 20 off the tee. 

Driving Distance
The top five all ranked inside the top 30 in driving distance. 

Driving Accuracy
Out of the top 10, only Jon Rahm and Brandon Wu were in the top 20 for driving accuracy.  Accuracy off the tee isn't essential.

SG: Approach
Rahm ranked 30th for approach but five of the top ten were in the top 10 for approach.

SG: Around The Green
Out of the top 10, only Tony Finau ranked inside the top 20 around the greens. 

SG: Putting
Four of the top five ranked inside the top 10 for putting. 

Mexico Open In Play Tips

Birdie Holes
The 7th is a driveable par 4, but water is in play so it's very much risk/reward.

Closing Stretch
16th
is a 500+ yard par 4, 17th is 226 yard par 3 with water all on the left but the 548 yard 18th should offer a great birdie/eagle opportunity. 

Fast or Slow Start
Jon Rahm and Kurt Kitayama shared the lead in round one but Tony Finau was seven back despite finishing one behind Rahm and Brandon Wu was five back. Wu was NINE shots behind Rahm at the halfway stage before eventually losing out by ONE shot. 

2023 Mexico Open Tips

You can sign up for all our Mexico Open tips and PGA Tour tips for 2023 by clicking the button below.

Sign Up For All Our Tips


In-play

2023 Mexico Open In-Play Blog

30th April 2023, 9:40am (UK time)

 
PlayerTotal
Finau -19
Rahm -17
Bhatia -17
Wu -16

2023 Mexico Open Round 3 Summary

Tony Finau may have retained his lead but Jon Rahm stole the headlines with a stunning round of 61.  The Spaniard has closed the gap at the top to two shots and sets up a thrilling final round.

Notable Round 3 Mexico Open Quotes

"I'm definitely a leaderboard watcher, but I didn't see my first leaderboard until I think about 13. So I think it definitely got my juices going a little bit and was able to make a few birdies coming in to stay in front of him. It was something I expected going into today, he's an amazing golfer. I play with him a lot and to see him at the top of the leaderboard after only 12 or 13 holes was not a big surprise to me." Tony Finau

"It was a great round. To be honest, it didn't feel -- the swings didn't feel that different today to the first two days. I think I mentioned in a couple interviews that the first two rounds, a couple of the not-so-good swings cost me a little bit too much, right? Either I hit it in a hazard or put myself in a spot where making par was difficult and that's why I was a little bit out of pace. Today, everything just seemed perfect, right? Made a lot of great swings and the ones that weren't great, still gave myself a good result." Jon Rahm

2023 Mexico Open Round 4 Weather

Sunny. Wind picking up to 11mph in the afternoon.

Back or Fade The Favourite?

Tony Finau is 5/6 favourite but that's a fraction short in our opinion.  He has world number one Jon Rahm in his rear view mirror and he'll likely need another low round to finish the job off.  

The leader tops the SG: Tee to Green stats for the week so there's nothing to suggest he will throw this one away.  Finau has evolved into a competent closer after struggling earlier in his career and a round in the 60's is likely.  However, the final round certainly won't be a procession and we're not backing him at odds of 5/6.

In-Play Mexico Open Bets We Considered

Jon Rahm is certainly a tempting price given our thoughts on Finau's price.  Odds of 17/10 aren't unreasonable on the defending champion retaining his title.  If you like Rahm but think Finau may just hang on, you may want to consider backing Rahm at evens to win his three ball against Finau and Akshay Bhatia.

There are a couple of final three ball selections that caught our eye.  Cameron Champ has won his 3 ball in each of the first three days and is priced up again at a generous 17/10.  There also appears to have been a significant overreaction to a poor third round from Erik Van Rooyen and his price (12/5) stood out to beat Eric Cole and Andrew Putnam.

Round 4 Bets

Want to know which bets we went with? You can sign up for all our PGA Tour tips for 2023 by clicking the button below.

Sign Up For All Our Tips

+ - Round 3 Bets Click to collapse

29th April 2023, 9:35am (UK time)

 
PlayerTotal
Finau -13
Van Rooyen -12
Wu -12
Five players tied -9

2023 Mexico Open Round 2 Summary

Tony Finau fired a morning 64 in the calmer conditions to take a one shot lead over Erik Van Rooyen. Brandon Wu was able to join Van Rooyen, one behind Finau. Jon Rahm could only manage a 68 and is six behind Finau now.

Notable Round 2 Mexico Open Quotes

" Yeah, I played really nicely over the last couple days, was able to capitalize with the putter on shots that I hit pretty close. That was probably the biggest story, hitting it nicely, but being able to capitalize with the putter is very important out here and I was able to do that over the last couple days." Tony Finau

" I've always been a good mid to long iron player and there's a lot of that out here. The par 5s are relatively scorable if you can keep it in the right spaces. You can get up and down like I did on 6. So all of this, it just fits my eye. I love hitting driver, there's a lot of drivers out there, and then when you roll the putter like I've been rolling it, good things happen." Erik Van Rooyen

2023 Mexico Open Round 3 Weather

Sunny with wind picking up to 13mph in the afternoon.

Back or Fade The Favourite?

Finau is now evens favourite and it's going to take a lot to stop him now. He ranks 2nd off the tee this week and is also putting beautifully. It's a course we know he suits as he finished 2nd last year and has become a strong closer, with three wins in the last year. Caution advised if taking on Finau from here. 

In-Play Mexico Open Bets We Considered

Looking at the outright market, several of the players at 8 or 9 under are eye catching. Andrew Putnam makes some appeal at 28/1 however his lack of length off the tee may prevent him a win. Eric Cole impressed when in contention at Honda and it would be no surprise to see him work himself into the mix but hasn't been capitalising on the par 5's which you need to do here.

The trio of big hitters - Akshay Bhatia, Will Gordon and Cameron Champ look the most likely to challenge the leaders but they will all need help from Finau if they are to have a chance. The way to play those three might in their 3-balls today, where they all have winnable groups at enticing odds.

Round 3 Bets

Want to know which bets we went with? You can sign up for all our PGA Tour tips for 2023 by clicking the button below.

Sign Up For All Our Tips

+ - Round 2 Bets Click to collapse

28th April 2023, 7:35am (UK time)

 
PlayerTotal
Smotherman -8
Van Rooyen -7
Goya -7
Five players tied -6

2023 Mexico Open Round 1 Summary

Austin Smotherman finished his opening round with four birdies to take the lead.  Smotherman, a past winner of this event when it was a PGA Tour Latino America event, will be looking to go wire to wire, just as Jon Rahm did last year.  Overall scoring was good, with 30 players within four shots of the leader.

Notable Round 1 Mexico Open Quotes

"I mean Harry and I played really good golf last week at the Zurich, we ended up missing the cut by two, but I mean we were feeding off each other, hitting good shots. And then being back home in Dallas for two days, Saturday, Sunday got some work in with Cameron. Played a fun pro-am event on Monday at Preston Trail and came down here Monday night. I mean, yeah, just feeling good. I feel like my game's in a good spot, just keep playing golf in this middle part of the year is kind of a hot stretch of tournaments I like" Austin Smotherman

" I'm happy with the score. Those first 13 holes we had virtually no wind, about as easy conditions as it can get. I wish I would have taken advantage of it more. I did make some good swings early on, I just couldn't quite get the number and judge some lies off the fairway, but that's just things that happen. I'm happy I played as good as I did on the back nine and capped it off with the putt on the last hole." Jon Rahm

2023 Mexico Open Round 2 Weather

Sunny with wind picking up to 11mph in the afternoon.

Back or Fade The Favourite?

Jon Rahm was the favourite pre-event and he retains favouritism at 16/5.  The Spaniard started slowly yesterday, playing his opening seven holes in one over par before finishing with strongly.  We certainly wouldn't be laying the world number one at this stage of proceedings and he is very much a threat.  

In-Play Mexico Open Bets We Considered

Cameron Champ, Maverick McNealy and Austin Cook all make appeal in the three ball markets.  All three players won their three balls yesterday and their opponents look vulnerable again today.  If you're looking for a small stakes in-play treble you could do a lot worse than those players.

Tony Finau enjoys a morning tee time today and he certainly makes appeal in the top American market.  Six of the top 10 in the Outright market are from outside the USA so the 2/1 available on Finau in the Top American market is certainly more appealing than the 15/4 in the outright.

With calmer conditions in the morning, several players with morning tee times made appeal in the second round leader market.  Tony Finau has a great chance of leading at the end of today but there a few others who make appeal too.  Tano Goya isn't one of those though considering his score was largely attributable to a fantastic day on the greens in the opening round.

 

 

Round 2 Bets

Want to know which bets we went with? You can sign up for all our PGA Tour tips for 2023 by clicking the button below.

Sign Up For All Our Tips


0
Shares
  • Share on Facebook
  • Tweet Us

View Archived Events

  • Betting Basics

Fill in your email and we'll send you our best bet each week

 
 
This week's tips
Golf Betting Club Logo

Are you winning?

Buy us a beer?
hello@golfbettingclub.com

Contact - Terms & Conditions - Privacy Policy

Web Design Cardiff Web Design Cardiff