2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Tips

5th February 2023, 9:25am (UK time)

2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Round 3 Summary

Calm conditions left us wondering whether the weather forecasters had got the forecast completely wrong. However, the strong winds eventually arrived and play had to be stopped as balls were moving on the 9th green at Monterey Peninsula.  Our 200/1 pre-event selection, Peter Malnati, holds a two shot lead with six holes remaining of his third round.

Notable Round 3 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Quotes

"Definitely pleased with how I played today. We definitely -- first couple holes were very benign. Then right when we got on 6 green is when the wind started picking up. Playing 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, pretty much straight into the wind. 8 was a little off the right, but everything else was straight into the wind. We knew going into today that those were going to be the tough holes. That was going to be the hardest stretch potentially all week. If we could make it through that stretch in a relatively good score, I would be set up for the weekend. Felt like at even par from 6 tee to 11 tee I was very pleased. Had a couple great up-and-downs. I was hitting driver -- I hit driver, 4-iron into 9 short. And that hole normally can be like a wedge. If you can get it down the hill. So it was definitely playing tough. I think I hit 8-iron on 7 from a hundred yards. It was getting out there. But then turned on 11, we were going to have every hole downwind or just cross all the way up until 17. So felt like I had some good scoring opportunities coming up. Then, unfortunately, one hole at Monterey Peninsula stops play for the entire day. Wind looks like it's going to be switched tomorrow. So now I'll be playing 11 through pretty much almost through 18 straight into the wind, if not into off the left I think it may be. All the holes are cut for a south wind. We figured we were going to be done in three days. So the rules officials were smart, they put the holes where they're supposed to be. So there's definitely going to be some tough hole locations with a different wind. So tomorrow's going to be very difficult in the morning. With the rain, the gusts up to 20, it's going to be a tough -- it's going to be tough. But we got to give it our best. Then when we restart on Pebble on No. 1 in the next round everybody will be back on pretty much the same playing field. So I think tomorrow morning's going to really say a lot about this tournament. Whoever comes out strong in that, wherever they are on any of the three courses, will really determine the rest of the event." Keith Mitchell

"It was great. I got to play eight holes before the weather got bad. So that was nice. Pebble's, it's hard if you're out of position, but it's gettable if you're playing well. I've been playing pretty well this week, which is nice. Then made the turn and made three birdies into the wind on 1, 2, 3. Which 1 and 2 are kind of protected, so that's nice. I don't know, I mean, golf's so hard and it's been so hard for me, but it's clicking a little bit this week and it feels really good." Peter Malnati

2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Round 4 Weather

Heavy rain in the morning with the wind expected to blow between 10-15mph.  However, gusts of wind are expected to reach 29mph by the early afternoon and we'll see similar conditions to Saturday.  A Monday finish appears inevitable.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

Keith Mitchell is the 7/2 favourite but he has plenty of holes left to play in difficult conditions and it's not a price we would entertain.  As he alluded to in his quote above, he is likely to play the remainder of his third round into the wind.  He could well be a couple of shots off the pace by the time he finishes his third round.

Our 200/1 play, Peter Malnati, has an 18ft birdie putt on the 4th hole when play resumes.  Into 4/1 now, he played the best of anyone in the tricky conditions yesterday.  He was due to play his final five holes into the wind yesterday but if the wind switches, as Mitchell alluded to, Malnati will now enjoy the benefit of having the wind behind him on these difficult holes.  Let's hope he takes full advantage!

Viktor Hovland is another with plenty of holes left to play in his third round.  Priced up at 15/2, we have he same concerns with him as we do Keith Mitchell.  If we were going to back Hovland, we'd far rather back him once he has completed round three. 

A word of caution if you are thinking of backing Joseph Bramlett at 7/1.  He airmailed the green at the 14th hole when play was suspended and television commentators suggested there was the possibility of the ball being out of bounds.  No further update was given though.

Where is the value?

We saw yesterday just how volatile scoring can be when the wind is gusting.  We'd be inclined to look for those players at bigger prices than those players at single figure odds.

Round 4 Bet

4th February 2023, 8:25am (UK time)

2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Round 2 Summary

Kurt Kitayama has a one shot lead heading into the weekend after a wet and breezy round two.  Whilst the scoring averages for the other two courses remained broadly similar to round one, Pebble Beach played over 1.5 strokes harder.  Round two scoring average for the three courses were 69.75 (Monterey Peninsula), 72.50 (Pebble Beach) and 73.01 (Spyglass Hill).

Notable Round 2 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Quotes

"I grew up in northern California. So I got to play Spyglass quite a bit. Not so much here (Pebble Beach) and Monterey. But I've seen it before and definitely feeling a lot more comfortable this time around. It's always nice playing here. It's nice being here." Kurt Kitayama

"It's a lot easier to handle these conditions when I feel like I'm hitting the ball well. Driving it really well again today. Setting myself up for a lot of good looks. My irons weren't quite as sharp. I had a tough time kind of gauging the distances. I hit a lot of greens and was able to make some easy birdies." Viktor Hovland

"I love Pebble Beach, it's my favorite course in the world. So we'll enjoy it either way." Joseph Bramlett

"I had an interesting day. I didn't play particularly well, but I scored very well. It's something I kind of pride myself on. Made some good putts, hung in there when I wasn't hitting a lot of great shots. So all in all very pleased but I would like to kind of see a little better ball striking so I'll go work on that now for awhile." Seamus Power

2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Round 3 Weather

Rain showers and strong winds (in excess of 15mph) are forecast from early afternoon.  However, the morning forecast is dry with the wind ranging from 5-12mph.  Tee times have been moved forward one hour in an attempt to avoid the worst of the weather.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

Keith Mitchell remains the 8/1 favourite.  He plays Pebble Beach today though and we're expecting the scoring to be difficult there.  We saw the scoring average move up to 72.5 in round two and with stronger winds expected today, the scoring average could well be even higher.  Mitchell did play Pebble Beach in -6 last year but he's not for us at single figure odds.

Viktor Hovland cut a confident figure in his post round interview yesterday and is available to back at 9/1.  It's very likely we see him contending in tomorrow's final round given the way he is playing (5th for Driving Accuracy and 9th for Greens in Regulation).

Kurt Kitayama and Scott Stallings can be backed at 10/1.  Stallings will play Monterey Peninsula in round three and under normal conditions he would be favoured.  However, we're in no rush to back either with 36 holes and inclement weather remaining.

Where is the value?

Ted Potter Jr was 35th at this stage in 2018 when winning here.  However, the past four champions have all been inside the top two at the halfway stage.  With reasonably strong wind (17mph) forecast for Sunday too, we could well end up with a result like 2018.  We wouldn't put you off looking further down the leaderboard.

Round 3 Bet

3rd February 2023, 11:25am (UK time)

2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Round 1 Summary

Calm early conditions saw players shoot some good scores at Monterey Peninsula and Pebble Beach.  However, it should be noted that some strong winds caused players difficulties later in the day, particularly at Pebble Beach.  Round one scoring average for the three courses were 69.85 (Monterey Peninsula), 70.98 (Pebble Beach) and 72.69 (Spyglass Hill)

Notable Round 1 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Quotes

"The front nine was probably some of the best weather we could have had. Especially on the front at Spyglass, it's really exposed. To be able to get through that front nine and then play the last three or four holes when the wind started switching like crazy. 18 played very, very difficult to squeak out a par there after a tough second shot. It's definitely going to play difficult the last couple hours........Depending upon how the weather holds up it might change Monterey and Pebble, just because they're probably more exposed." Keith Mitchell

"Spyglass is an interesting test. I was in great position going into Spyglass last year and struggled. Didn't necessarily do anything bad, it was just, sort of got in a bad position, made a bogey when I probably shouldn't have. It was just kind of -- Spyglass is the hardest place to play feeling like you have to make birdies. When you can kind of keep it going, hit it in the fairway, pick your spots it's fine. But when you kind of feel like your back's up against the wall Spyglass is definitely the hardest just because the greens are, just the nuance to it. You got a lot of up-and-down hills and you're never a hundred percent sure you have the right club. There's a lot of -- you have to think your way around there" Scott Stallings

2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Round 2 Weather

Rain showers until lunchtime with the wind subsiding as the day goes on (9mph in the morning and 4mph in the afternoon).  It is also worth mentioning that stronger winds are forecast for the weekend, with the wind expected to blow in excess of 15mph each day.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

Keith Mitchell is the 15/2 favourite having navigated his way around Spyglass Hill in a score of four under par.  He's likely to score well at Monterey Peninsula today but he must play Pebble Beach on Saturday in strong winds and he's not for us at single figure odds.

Only six plyers bettered Viktor Hovland's score of 70 at Spyglass Hill and he finds himself as the 11/1 second favourite.  Winner of the 2018 US Amateur at Pebble Beach, he described his round as "pretty good" and will fancy his chances over the weekend.   Whilst he's definitely a threat, we have the same weather considerations with him as we do with Mitchell.  

Kurt Kitayama is third favourite at 12/1.  He is a player who has proven himself in windy conditions but we'd prefer to look at other options further down the betting.

Where is the value?

Three of the last five winners of this event have been inside the top three after the opening round.  We're certainly factoring that into our thoughts given the weather forecast over the coming days.  Those players who got off to a hot start at Monterey Peninsula in round 1 will play Pebble Beach in round two and then the more sheltered course, Spyglass Hill, in round three.

Round 2 Bet