Event Info
Starts - 3rd February 2022
Course - Pebble Beach Golf Links, Monterrey Peninsula CC & Spyglass Hill CC
Par - PB 72, MP 71 & SG 72.
Length – 6,972, 6,957 and 7,041 yards
2021 Champion: Daniel Berger
Results
Overall Profit/Loss: -0.25pts
Pre-Event Bets: +2.75pts
1pt Each Way Kevin Kisner 50/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-8)
0.5pts Each Way Russell Knox 80/1 @ Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
0.5pts Each Way Lucas Glover 80/1 @ Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
0.5pts Each Way Scott Stallings 100/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-8)
0.5pts Each Way Nick Taylor 100/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-8)
0.5pts Each Way Pat Perez 110/1 @ Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
0.5pts Each Way Troy Merritt 110/1 @ Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
2.5pts Paul Barjon to be TOP CONTINENTAL EUROPEAN 5/1 @ Betfair
1pt Alex Cejka to be TOP CONTINENTAL EUROPEAN 5/1 @ Betfair
In-Play Bets: -3pts
6 February 2022 (-2pts)
2pts Win Only Jordan Spieth 4/1 @ Bet365
4 February 2022 (-1pt)
0.5pts Each Way Tyler McCumber 150/1 @ Unibet (1/4 1-5)
Preview
Course Info
Course Designer: Pebble - Jack Neville/Douglas Grant. Spyglass - Robert Trent Jones Snr
Tournament played here since: 1947
Type of Course: Coastal
Fairways: Tight
Rough: Average
Greens: Poa Annua, 12 on the Stimp
Water Hazards: The sea is in play on a number of holes
Par 5's: 2nd, 6th, 14th and 18th on Pebble
Premium on: Approach play
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
This event is a pro-am with pros playing with amateur partners. However, due to Covid, amateurs did not take part last year.
There were no fans in 2021 either.
The event featured a 36 hole cut instead of 54 holes and only used two courses (Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill).
Monterrey Peninsula Country Club will be back in the rotation this year.
The field will play three courses over the first three days, with the final round played at Pebble Beach.
The weather can make a significant difference. This years forecast is for minimal winds so Pebble Beach will play more scoreable than usual.
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
Weather
The current forecast is light winds all week with sunshine every day.
Thursday: Sunny with winds of 7mph.
Friday: Sunny with winds of 6mph.
Saturday: Partly Cloudy with winds of 8mph.
Sunday: Sunny with winds of 7mph.
Trends
Winning Score
Has ranged from -17 to -19 over the past six years. Scoring is likely to be higher this year as Monterrey Peninsula Country Club is not being used and this is traditionally the easier of the three normal courses.
Price of Winner
We've had some big price winners here. Nick Taylor won in 2020 when starting at 150/1+. Ted Potter Jr and Vaughn Taylor were shock winners in 2016 and 2018 also.
Correlating Courses
The Travelers Championship seems to throw up a number of players who perform well at both events. The courses are not alike so this may just be a coincidence. Look for success at other coastal venues (Sony, RBC Heritage, Puntacana, Mayakoba etc).
Course Form
The past 12 champions have all posted a top 21 finish here prior to winning. 11 of the 12 past champions posted a top 16 finish prior to winning. Side with strong course experience.
Recent Form
You don't need to be in blistering form to win. Although Jordan Spieth and Phil Mickelson won having recorded top 5 finishes earlier that season, three of the past five champions had not posted a top 30 finish in the calendar year prior to winning. Daniel Berger won following a missed cut in 2021.
Nationality
Of the last 16 champions, only Nick Taylor's win in 2020 prevents it from being a clean sweep of Americans.
Stats Analysis
With shotlink data only available for the rounds at Pebble Beach, we use more traditional stats.
Driving Accuracy
The last six winners have ranked 49th, 17th, 121st, 25th, 23rd and 82nd. Driving Accuracy preferred but not essential.
Driving Distance
Only two of the last six winners has ranked better than 60th in this category. Driving Distance is irrelevant.
Greens in Regulation
The past six winners have ranked 3rd, 8th, 8th, 19th, 3rd and 3rd. Approach play is key.
Scrambling
Daniel Berger ranked 1st for scrambling in 2021 but none of the three prior winners ranked better than 25th for Scrambling.
SG: Putting
The past six winners have ranked 18th, 2nd, 4th, 7th, 2nd and 3rd. Ability to putt well on Poa greens is crucial.
In-Play
Tough Holes
The 18th hole at Pebble Beach was the hardest par 5 on the PGA Tour in 2020, and the par 5 1st hole at Spyglass was the 2nd hardest par 5. In general, the 6th hole at Spyglass traditionally plays the hardest and the 8th at Pebble Beach.
Birdie Holes
6th on Pebble is usually a must birdie.
Closing Stretch
As mentioned, the 18th at Pebble is a really difficult hole.
Fast or Slow Start
Three of the last six champions have been 1st or 2nd after the first round. Daniel Berger was five shots back after round one, two back at halfway and with a round to go also. Fast starts are preferred but not necessary.
Course Notes 2021
Draw Bias
There was no wind in round one which meant Pebble Beach played significantly easier than Spyglass Hillls. The wind was then up on Friday which meant Pebble played just as hard as Spyglass. You want to play Pebble when its calm.
Wind
Saturday was the windiest day and no one shot lower than 68.
High Quality Leaderboard
Five of the six pre-event favourites - Cantlay, Berger, Casey, Spieth and Day were all within 3 of the lead heading into the final round.
In-play
2022 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am In-Play Blog
6 February 2022, 3.30pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Hossler | -15 |
| Putnam | -15 |
| Hoge | -15 |
| Dahmen | -14 |
| Spieth | -14 |
| Cantlay | -14 |
| Power | -13 |
Seamus Power went into reverse at Monterey Peninsula and the leaderboard has a completely different complexion to what we expected.
Beau Hossler, Tom Hoge and Andrew Putnam now lead the way after Power's collapse and all three will be hoping to follow on the strong trend of leaders in this event. Third round leaders have won here in three of the last five events. Only Putnam has won before on Tour and we see him as the strongest of the three.
Aside from a poor Sunday at the Shriner's Childrens Open, Putnam has generally been solid in contention and he at least has a PGA Tour win (2018 Barracuda Championship) to his name.
Tom Hoge has had his troubles in contention and is short enough in the betting at 11/2 in our opinion. Conversely, Beau Hossler was perhaps worth tempting on price alone given he's 10/1. However, a lack of recent contention experience is enough to put us off him.
If the three leaders are going to win, they'll likely need to brush off the inevitable challenge from Jordan Spieth and Patrick Cantlay. They are first and second in the betting at 10/3 and 4/1 and rightly so. Spieth is a past champion here and Cantlay possesses three top 12 finishes in recent years.
Of the two, it is Spieth who we prefer. He has yesterday's momentum and a fantastic record at Pebble whilst Cantay's record at the host course isn't all that impressive if you set aside last year's opening 62.
It will be difficult for Seamus Power to set aside yesterday's disappointment but he obviously has the firepower to get himself back into contention. We don't see him winning now though.
Joel Dahmen has a ⭐⭐⭐ Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Rating. If he weren't up against Spieth and Cantlay, he may have been under consideration.
Conditions look set to be pleasant again today (max wind 6mph) so scoring should be good.
Round 4 Bet
- 2pts Win Only Jordan Spieth 4/1 @ Bet365
Jordan moved into contention with a Saturday 63 which included a wonder par from the edge of the cliffs at Pebble Beach. His final round scoring record at Pebble has been strong, only once in eight final rounds has he failed to break par. A new father, he has the Nappy Factor and he's our selection ahead of the final round.
Dont forget - You can watch our final round preview show, The Closing Stretch on our YouTube Channel.
5 February 2022, 10:20am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Power | -16 |
| Putnam | -11 |
| Hoge | -11 |
| Svensson | -11 |
| Smotherman | -10 |
| Cantlay | -10 |
| Schwab | -10 |
Seamus Power set a 36 hole event scoring record and now enjoys a five shot lead going into the weekend in California.
The Irishman is now an even money favourite to go on and secure a 2nd PGA Tour title. Power backers will fancy him to stretch his lead further given he plays Monterey Peninsula today, the easiest of the three courses. Power stated in his post round interview that he hasn't found Monterey Peninsula easy in the past but he's a much improved player now.
Power was incredibly poor in contention several weeks ago at The American Express and whilst it wouldn't surprise us if he went on to win, we're happy to leave him alone at the odds.
Patrick Cantlay is 2nd in the betting and he'll be hoping to make up ground playing Pebble Beach. Given three of the six players at -10 and -11 are playing Spyglass Hill, Cantlay could well emerge as the principal threat to Power. Odds of 4/1 with 36 holes to go are fair in our opinion but not attractive enough to warrant a bet.
There are plenty of chasers at 10 and 11 under par and none of them are shorter than 16/1 in the betting.
Conditions look set to be pleasant again today so expect low scores.
Round 3 Bet
- No bet
We considered putting up Austin Smotherman at 70/1 but he plays Spyglass today and that was enough for us to take a watching brief for this round. We are on Troy Merritt pre-event and hoping he can go low at Monterey Peninsula.
4 February 2022, 10:20am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Hoge | -9 |
| Power | -8 |
| Blixt | -7 |
| Smotherman | -7 |
| Cantlay | -6 |
| Putnam | -6 |
A three putt par on the 2nd sparked a run of six birdies for Tom Hoge from the 3rd onwards and he takes a one shot lead of Seamus Power. Despite his lead Hoge is still 3rd in the betting at 13/2.
Power's favouritism is justified after a sensational round at the tougher Spyglass Hills and he is the man expected to kick on now. At 7/2 he makes no appeal for us after his disappointing finish at the American Express, not to mention Cantlay close behind him.
Cantlay is also available at 7/2 but has now played the easier Monterey Peninsula. It would be no surprise to see Power or Hoge go on to win this year so the 7/2 again makes no appeal.
Conditions look set to be pleasant again today so expect low scores. We're off to a good start by our pre-event picks and there is one small play we will add today.
Round 2 Bet
- 0.5pts Each Way Tyler McCumber 150/1 @ Unibet (1/4 1-5)
Tyler played Spyglass Hill in 4 under par yesterday, hitting 83% of greens. He will now be confident of kicking on at the easier two courses. Only played this event twice, one of which a 30th place finish. He is a hard one to get right but 4th at the RSM last year and 2nd at Corales in 2020 were really impressive performances and he plays his best stuff by the coast in general. Anything over 100/1 is more than fair this morning.
