Preview
Event Info
Starts: 11th May 2023
Course: TPC Craig Ranch
Par: 72
Length: 7,414 yards
2022 Champion: K H Lee
Course Info
Designer: Tom Weiskopf.
Used Since: 2021
Fairways: Zoysia, wide
Rough: Bermudagrass.
Greens: Large, Bentgrass.
Water Hazards: In-play on 13 holes.
Par 5's: 5th,8th,12th,18th.
Premium on: Approach Play and Putting.
Significant Info
This event was also used for the Nationwide Tour Championship in 2008 and 2012.
Ryan Palmer holds course record here.
AT&T Byron Nelson Weather
Available week of the event.
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday
AT&T Byron Nelson Trends
Winning Score
Previous winners on the Nationwide Tour, Justin Bolli and Matt Bettencourt, won with -16 and -17. K H Lee won with -26 last year and -25 in 2021 - we should expect something similar.
Course Form
Lee defended his title in 2022 whilst runner-up Spieth was 9th the previous year. Munoz and Matsuyama finished T3rd and both made the cut in 2021. Course form looks worth having here.
Recent Form
K H Lee (2022) was 25th at Wells Fargo in his last start and Lee (2021) had made his last four cuts but nothing inside the top 25. 2012 winner Justin Bolli had no previous form with figures of MC-45-MC. 2008 winner Matt Bettencourt arrived in great form with figures of 2-18-MC-1-5.
World Ranking
K H Lee (2022) was ranked 88th before his win and Lee (2021) was ranked 137th, with the rest of the top 5 ranked 44th, 17th, 157th and 269th.
Nationality
Lee was a Korean winner but both Nationwide leaderboards were dominated by Americans.
Correlating Courses
K H Lee was 2nd at the Phoenix Open before his win in 2021 which is hosted at a Tom Weiskopf re-design, TPC Scottsdale.
AT&T Byron Nelson Stats Analysis
We only have two years of Strokes Gained data to assess. We will look at the stats of the winner and runner up for 2021 and 2022.
SG: Off The Tee
K H Lee was 20th and Jordan Spieth was 7th in 2022. In 2021, Lee ranked 23rd with Sam Burns 9th.
Driving Accuracy
K H Lee was 22nd and Spieth was 33rd in 2022. In 2021, Lee ranked 41st with Burns 102nd. Accuracy off the tee isn't essential.
Driving Distance
K H Lee was 49th and Spieth was 13th in 2022. In 2021, Lee ranked 35th, Burns 55th . Distance is not essential despite the length of the course.
SG: Approach
K H Lee was 8th and Spieth was 4th in 2022. In 2021, Lee ranked 2nd with Burns 6th. Looks likely to be a key stat again this year.
Greens in Regulation
K H Lee was 18th and Spieth was 49th in 2022. In 2021, Lee ranked 5th with Burns 5th.
SG: Around The Green
K H Lee was 10th and Spieth was 26th in 2022. In 2021, Lee ranked 24th, Burns 8th. A tidy short game is needed.
SG: Putting
K H Lee was 13th and Spieth was 36th in 2022. In 2021, Lee ranked 9th, Burns 45th.
AT&T Byron Nelson Player Quotes
"I love the fact that obviously it's a pretty big golf course, it's pretty long, you got to, the farther you hit it the easier this place gets. But playing in a lot of wind is something that I'm used to obviously living here since I was nine years old. So there's a lot of mid irons into this place which is the best part of my game and being one of the longer drivers on TOUR really matches up really nicely." Will Zalatoris, 2022
"The fairways are firmer, so I think last year we got some rain and I think they will play narrower, so I think that in that, because of that I think the scores will be a little bit higher, just because it's harder to hit the fairways and the rough's really high. So if you're in the fairway you can attack pins on a lot of the greens, but if you're not you're really out of position because they stick 'em over in corners and the way the course is designed it's, you have to be able to have spin on the ball to get close to the pin. So it's still going to be a premium on driving, probably more of a premium on driving the ball accurately than it was maybe last year, just because the fairways will play 5 to 10 yards smaller with how firm they are and I think that that's going to be what the tournament, the TOUR, everybody wants out of this place. It can show a little bit of teeth and it's certainly in the best condition, shape I've ever seen it in." Jordan Spieth, 2022
"The rough's definitely spotty. I think it's very, at least for a Monday at Southern Hills it's similar to where it's kind of flier city. You get it -- it's not -- when you get that really long Bermuda you know it's going to come out thick and likely going to just kind of be more of a pitch out kind of thing. But when you get this kind of rough it's really judging how far the ball's going to fly as well as you can and, yeah, I mean I wouldn't -- the fairways are big, I mean you have a pretty good amount of room, but I've definitely played wider fairways, like Caves Valley last year the fairways were just massive. It's not like to that extent, but, yeah, when you get some wind, and it seems like there's going to be a fair amount of crosswinds just by, I could be wrong, but at least off of some of the practice I've had the last couple days. So that shrinks the fairways quite a bit." Justin Thomas, 2022
"I think the biggest defence of this place really is the wind. Typically, when I've played here, it's fairly wide open, it's very long, especially when you have Zoysia grass, the ball doesn't roll very far. Getting weather as well is going to slow down the ball off the tee, so it's going to benefit a lot of the longer hitters. But you're able to really hit some darts into some of these greens, especially with how the weather is going to, or at least how so far the conditions are going to look like for the rest of the week. So expecting some low numbers this week." Will Zalatoris, 2021
“It’s going to be a bomber’s golf course” Ryan Palmer, 2021
"I think that when the wind blows it can be a significant -- it can play very different based on the conditions. You can say that about any golf course but really even more so out here. You've got, if the wind doesn't blow, you really are kind of looking at trying to go score. Then when it does, you're almost kind of holding on and saying, all right, I want to take advantage of the par-5s but the rest of the course is going to be really tough. It's got really hard par-3s. 17 being kind of the outlier, the kind of shorter one. So I think there's, you just, you got to have really -- you step up in a lot of these, where these hole locations will be, you got bigger greens but they play effectively smaller and it's really hard to kind of get your mid irons to long irons into kind of the sections of the greens where the pins will be. So I think it's going to be more of like a second shot risk-reward golf course to try and go low, but you can also play it smart and really hang in there if you're able to putt well." Jordan Spieth, 2021
AT&T Byron Nelson In Play Tips
Fast or Slow Start
Lee (2022), Lee (2021) and Burns (2021 runner-up) all got off to hot starts and were all inside the top 10 after round one. Burns and Lee (2021) were in the top 5 at the halfway stage and in the top 2 with one round to go but it was a different story for Lee in 2022, as he came from four back on the final day.
Hole Analysis
Sung Kang is a course member and he had this to say in his pre-tournament interview:
"So the front nine and back nine are totally different. Front nine you can get really after it. There's some shorter holes you can actually score some. And then par-5s, like No. 5 and 6 are pretty simple. So you got to score well on the front. But as soon as you get to the back nine, there are a lot of long par-4s, so I think the driving will be the key. The fairways are pretty generous, but if you miss the fairway then it gets a little bit harder. So you got to hit the fairways.
And then coming in, 16, 17, 18, if it is normal wind from the south, it will be dead into the wind. So the 16th will be a very challenging par-4.
17 will be a short par-3, but with the wind it can play a little more difficult.
18's a par-4, you need a good tee ball to get home in two. So it will be fun to watch on the last couple of holes coming in."
Previous AT&T Byron Nelson Picks and Blogs
2022
2021
In-play
AT&T Byron Nelson In-Play Blog
14th May 2023, 9:25am (UK time)
Player | Total |
Dou |
-16 |
Palmer |
-16 |
Eckroat |
-16 |
Kim |
-14 |
Day |
-14 |
Norrman |
-14 |
Scheffler |
-14 |
Four players tied |
-13 |
2023 AT&T Byron Nelson Round 3 Summary
Somewhat surprisingly, Scottie Scheffler was only oble to shoot a level par round of 71 to slip back to a tie for fourth position. The world number two was badly out of sorts and has left the
Notable Round 3 AT&T Byron Nelson Quotes
"I struggled with kind of everything today. My swing didn't feel good, I wasn't making a lot of putts. That's how you end up with even par." Scottie Scheffler
"it was a grind for sure. The greens were obviously a little different than they have been all week leading up to today, but a patient day. Kind of let a few get away in the middle part of the round, but to hit the tee shot I hit on 14 and two-putt and then the 6-iron I hit on 15, that really got me going for the last few holes. What a great shot on 16 to set up birdie, and then two solid swings on the last. It was a patient day. I just told myself, relax. I never really got nervous or ahead of myself, and just stay calm. I knew I was going to be one or two back, worst case. It's going to be nice to be in the final group again, and we'll give it our all." Ryan Palmer
"I think nerves is the same thing as me playing on the Korn Ferry. Everybody gets in the lead not that even, and you get into it and you're going to be nervous no matter what. Like I won't be more nervous just because this is PGA TOUR and back then it was a Korn Ferry. I think it's just the same thing. Trying to get adjusted the same way I did on the Korn Ferry, and hopefully I can do good out of that." Zecheng Dou
2023 AT&T Byron Nelson Round 4 Weather
Showers and potential thunderstorms. Wind 5-10mph.
Back or Fade The Favourite?
Scheffler remains the 3/1 favourite but we don't like his chances nearly as much as we did yesterday. Scheffler complained about his swing in round three
In-Play AT&T Byron Nelson Bets We Considered
With doubts over how all three leaders will cope with the pressure, we could well see a winner come from off the pace today.
Ryan Palmer has been poor in contention for a long time (he has a 1⭐ Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Rating) whilst Zecheng Dou and Austin Eckroat are in unchartered territory. Both players are seeking their first PGA Tour win and both are relatively untested at this higher level. Eckroat failed to win when leading last year on the Korn Ferry Tour but it should be noted that Dou has an excellent record when leading.
Dou has held (or had a share of) the third round lead on four occassions on the Korn Ferry Tour. He would go on to win three of those events and get into a playoff for the other. Playing at his home course, he could well be the player to upstage Scheffler.
If the three leaders were to falter, that opens the tournament up for players who are 10 under par or better. Low round of the day on Saturday was 63, a similar effort from anyone at 10 under or better would certainly put them in the mix.
Jimmy Walker was the player who made most appeal in the 3 ball market at 23/20. Although he was poor in round three, his general play the past few weeks has been solid and he's up against weak opponents in William McGirt and S.Y. Noh. McGirt and Noh have both lost strokes tee to green this week, whilst Walker has gained from tee to green.
Round 4 Bets
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13th May 2023, 12:25pm (UK time)
Player | Total |
Scheffler |
-14 |
Palmer |
-13 |
Hughes |
-13 |
Kim |
-11 |
Werenski |
-10 |
Eight players tied |
-9 |
2023 AT&T Byron Nelson Round 2 Summary
Scottie Scheffler has given himself a great chance to back to number one in the world rankings after a round of 65 saw him assume top spot at the AT&T Byron Nelson.
Notable Round 2 AT&T Byron Nelson Quotes
"I want to win a lot of tournaments. This one being in the hometown, it would definitely be a lot of fun with the crowd behind me this weekend. But that's not stuff that occupies too many of my thoughts. I don't want to place too many emphasis on one tournament. I just want to go out and do my best and see where that puts me." Scottie Scheffler
"It's nice to shoot a good round after a really good round on Thursday. It's hard to do. I hit the ball well today. I really feel like my ball-striking was a little better today than it was yesterday. Never really got in trouble, which was the key. Kept it in the fairway and hit a lot of greens I felt like." Ryan Palmer
2023 AT&T Byron Nelson Round 3 Weather
Organisers have moved tee times forward for round three to try and minimise any weather disruption with inclement weather forecast for later in the day. Players could be playing in heavy rain with wind forecast to range between 10 - 20mph.
Back or Fade The Favourite?
Scheffler is a general 4/7 to win from here and it's hard to build a case against him. He has converted his last three 36 hole leads and playing in front of a home crowd won't hurt his chances either. We certainly aren't laying him.
In-Play AT&T Byron Nelson Bets We Considered
Kelly Kraft was under consideration in the three ball betting. The Texan is up against Luke List and Adam Long, two players who are capable of a poor round. Long has been losing strokes tee to green and Kraft has posted some of the best approach play numbers in the field.
Mackenzie Hughes made appeal in the 'without Scheffler' market but with bad weather incoming, we felt no need to take the 11/4.
Round 3 Bets
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12th May 2023, 9:45am (UK time)
Player | Total |
Noh |
-11 |
Scott |
-8 |
Dou |
-8 |
Six players tied |
-7 |
2023 AT&T Byron Nelson Round 1 Summary
S Y Noh was one shot short of a 59 after an incredible round which saw him gain over six shots on the greens! A cracked driver midway through the round couldn't slow him down either and he takes a three shot lead over the field. Favourite Scottie Scheffler is four back after a fast finish.
Notable Round 1 AT&T Byron Nelson Quotes
"You know, just everything was going amazing. Like not perfect, it's going just amazing day. Off the tee, missed two drivers because the crack of the driver head. Except two shots off the tee through the green, everything going perfectly today." S Y Noh
"It's a long tournament, and the guys this morning I would say probably didn't have as much wind as we did in the afternoon. I think you saw that with the scores; there definitely wasn't an 11-under out there in the afternoon. " Scottie Scheffler
"Depends on the wind, but yeah, actually you can probably birdie all the holes. You've got to be driving it well here. With the softer conditions, we definitely -- it definitely widens the fairways. They're already kind of wide anyway, so it widens the fairways, and then with the softer greens, it's just kind of like -- everyone is kind of flagging it. That's probably understandable obviously through the scores that you're seeing.. " Jason Day
2023 AT&T Byron Nelson Round 2 Weather
Cloudy morning with potential thunder in the afternoon. Wind 9-12mph.
Back or Fade The Favourite?
Going to bed last night, Scottie Scheffler had just made back to back dropped shots and was eight off the lead. It was a surprise to wake up and see him four under par for his last five holes given the wind that was blowing. It now means he is in tied 4th, four off the lead with an early start tomorrow. It would take a brave man to take him on at the moment and current odds of 2/1 appear about right. Scheffler is staying at home this week and will be keen to build momentum before the PGA.
In-Play AT&T Byron Nelson Bets We Considered
In the outright market, we are hesitant to take Scheffler on although Jason Day did make some appeal. The Australian built his score in a very different way to Scheffler, ranking 5th for approach. However, his record at Craig Ranch hasn't been great and we would like to se what Scheffler does today before taking any single figure prices.
No one else under 50/1 entered our thoughts but we have found a value price at three figures which we have tipped to subscribers.
Round 2 Bets
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