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2023 3M Open Tips
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2023 3M Open Event Info
Starts: 27th July 2023
Course: TPC Twin Cities, Minnesota
Par: 71
Length: 7,431 yards
2022 Champion: Tony Finau
2023 3M Open Course Info
Designer: Arnold Palmer
Used Since: 2019
Fairways: Generous
Greens: Bentgrass
Water Hazards: On 14 holes
Par 5's: 6th, 12th and 18th
Premium on: Approach and Putting
Significant Info
This event follows The Open so be wary of those suffering fatigue after a tough mental week.
2023 3M Open Weather Forecast
Dry in the lead up to the tournament, but showers should arrive on Friday morning. Potential thunderstorms are forecast on Saturday.
Thursday
Sunny with a max wind speed of 11mph.
Friday
Sunny intervals with a max wind speed of 9mph.
Saturday
Sunny with a max wind speed of 7mph.
Sunday
Light rain showers with a max wind speed of 8mph.
2023 3M Open Trends
Winning Score
Tony Finau won with a score of -17 in 2022. Cameron Champ won with -15 in 2021. We saw winning scores of -19 and -21 the two years prior to that, expect low scoring again.
Course Form
Finau had excellent course form, finishing inside the top 30 in each of his previous three starts in this event. Champ only had a missed cut to his name prior to his win here. The top two in 2021 didn't have any significant course form, Michael Thompson finished 85th in 2019 and Adam Long missed the cut. Wolff won in 2019 when nobody had played the course before. You can play well here without having previous form.
Recent Form
Finau had posted a top 30 the week before at The Open Championship when winning last year. Champ had finished 11th at the John Deere on his last start before his win however he hadn't made a cut in his previous five starts. Neither of the 2020 & 2021 winners of this event had posted a top 40 finish in their previous three starts. Recent form is not essential.
World Ranking
Finau was 17th. Champ was 117th. The 2021 champion, Michael Thompson, ranked 215th in the world. The 2019 champion, Matt Wolff, ranked 1659th!! Wolff had only just turned pro, hence his world ranking, but shocks can happen here.
Nationality
Americans have won all four events here.
Correlating Courses
Vidanta Vallarta is the host course of the Mexico Open and it has to be considered a strong correlating course given Tony Finau is a winner at both courses and Cameron Champ is a winner at 3M along with two top ten finishes from two starts in Mexico.
2023 3M Open Stats Analysis
SG: Off The Tee
Looking at the four winners, Finau was 3rd for SG: Off The Tee, Champ ranked 39th, Thompson ranked 88th in 2020, whilst Wolff ranked 32nd in 2019.
Driving Accuracy
Finau ranked 6th, Champ ranked 92nd, Thompson ranked 33rd and Wolff ranked 34th.
Driving Distance
Finau ranked 16th and Champ ranked 10th but neither of the previous winners ranked inside the top 50. Thompson ranked 97th and Wolff ranked 64th.
SG: Approach
Finau ranked number 3 for SG: Approach. Champ ranked 19th. Both previous winners ranked inside the top 4 (Thompson 2nd and Wolff 4th). Approach play is key.
Greens In Regulation
Mirrors SG: Approach to a certain extent, rankings of 3rd, 26th, 4th and 6th for the last four winners.
SG: Around The Green
Finau ranked number 2 for SG: Around The Green. Champ ranked 48th. Thompson ranked 104th in 2020, but Wolff ranked 32nd in 2019.
SG: Putting
Finau ranked number 43 for SG: Putting. Champ ranked 1st. Thompson ranked 6th, but Wolff ranked 59th. It should be noted that Wolff would have ranked higher were it not for a poor final round with the putter.
2023 3M Open In Play Advice
Tough Holes
The 9th is by far the hardest hole on the course. The 3rd and the 13th also cause problems, playing over par.
Birdie Holes
The par 5's (6th, 12th and 18th) are all birdie opportunities. The 1st hole and 16th hole both played significantly under par last year too.
Closing Stretch
The 18th is a par 5 and offers birdie and even eagle opportunities (Wolff eagled this hole to win in 2019).
Fast or Slow Start
Tony Finau was 3rd after round one last year. Champ was 38th after round one and 19th after round two in 2021.
Michael Thompson was never worse than 2nd place after any round in 2020. Matthew Wolff was 49th after round 1 and 35th after round 2 in 2019.
Two out of the four winners of this event have led after three rounds.
Previous 3M Open Picks and Blogs
2023 3M Open Tips
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In-play
3M Open In-Play Blog
30th July 2023, 10:25am (UK time)
Player | Total |
Hodges |
-20 |
Poston |
-11 |
Finau |
-10 |
Baddeley |
-10 |
Four players tied |
-9 |
2023 3M Open Round 3 Summary
Lee Hodges increased his lead to five with a 66, playing his back nine in five under par.
Notable Round 3 3M Open Quotes
"' I don't know, same thing I've been doing. I mean, I honestly don't think I'll be that nervous tonight. I'll hang out with my wife, we'll go do something fun. I mean, yeah, it's just golf at the end of the day. I'm lucky to be here.." Lee Hodges
" Hitting it a little bit better. The swing feels a little more polished for some reason. Sometimes you just have it and sometimes you don't. This week hitting it a little bit better. " Tony Finau
"It's not easy. My last win on the John Deere I slept on the lead a few days in a row. It's an uncomfortable feeling, but it's exciting at the same time. This is why we play, this is why we're out here, this is all of our goals is to win. Lee's no different. He's won at other levels, so I'm sure he'll be drawing off of that and trying to get it done tomorrow, too.." J T Poston
2023 3M Open Round 4 Weather
Sunny and hot. Wind 5-9mph.
Back or Fade The Favourite?
Lee Hodges was undoubtedly impressive yesterday and is talking an even better game, stating that he doubts he would feel nervous last night. At odds of 1/3, the value has now passed and we would still be more inclined to take on the 1/3 than back it. This course has water on many of it's holes where trouble can be found, especially the last few holes. It is the first sole lead he has held after 54 holes but the birdies dried up when he co-led at Amex and his most recent experience in contention at the Memorial in June was a poor one - shooting 76 to drop from 4th to 12th.
JT Poston is not the type who is going to let Hodges par his way to victory and we saw on Thursday Finau's ability to score fast when playing his first six holes in six under par. Indeed, Kevin Yu was 8 under through 11 yesterday before faltering. Hodges should get it done with that lead but it's certainly no given.
In-Play 3M Open Bets We Considered
With Hodges holding such a commanding lead, options are limited and only one bet stood out to us this morning which we have advised to subscribers.
3M Open Round 4 Bets
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29th July 2023, 10:45am (UK time)
Player | Total |
Hodges |
-15 |
Duncan |
-11 |
Snedeker |
-10 |
Streelman |
-10 |
Finau |
-10 |
Poston |
-10 |
Three players tied |
-9 |
2023 3M Open Round 2 Summary
Easy scoring conditions saw Lee Hodges open up a four shot lead. Play was temporarily suspended due to dangerous weather in the area but once it resumed, Hodges played his back nine in four under par. Hideki Matsuyama couldn't repeat his strong play on Thursday and has fallen nine back.
Notable Round 2 3M Open Quotes
"'Ive got a great attitude out there. Me and my caddie, we're 70-something on the points list, like what do we have to lose, you know? We've committed to every shot we've hit so far, which has been great. We'll continue to do it, because what do we have to lose." Lee Hodges
" Yeah, I don't know, something about this time of year I guess after The open that has me playing well. I can't put my finger on it, but so far this week it's happening again. It's nice to have a stretch anytime you have a stretch, but seems to be the last couple years my stretches kind of started after The Open. " Tony Finau
"I definitely was a little shaky with the putter today, I wasn't too happy with how I felt out there. Just try to figure out how to clear the mind a little bit on the greens and see if I can make some putts." Tyler Duncan
2023 3M Open Round 3 Weather
Sunny and hot. Wind 7-11mph.
Back or Fade The Favourite?
Lee Hodges is 13/8 to finish the job off from here and it's a price we think is worth taking on. Although ranking 2nd tee to green and 1st putting, Hodges has struggled previously when near the lead and the pressure of holding such a lead from halfway may be too much for him at this point. He was 2nd at the Genesis Invitational at halfway before finishing 18th this year, 3rd at Rocket Mortgage at halfway before going onto finish 44th last year, and led after three rounds at Amex, only being able to shoot a 70 to finish 3rd.
Cameron Champ won from 19th at halfway in 2021 and Matt Wolff won from 35th in 2019 so big comebacks happen here, another one looks possible this year.
In-Play 3M Open Bets We Considered
Despite thinking Hodges is worth taking on, there is no one standing out in the market as value to us today that we aren't already on. The five places available was tempting though, with J.J. Spaun and David Lipsky being considered at 33's.
3M Open Round 3 Bets
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28th July 2023, 10:15m (UK time)
Player | Total |
Hodges |
-8 |
Matsuyama |
-7 |
Snedeker |
-7 |
Streelman |
-7 |
Duncan |
-7 |
Three players tied |
-6 |
2023 3M Open Round 1 Summary
The morning starters took advantage of calmer conditions, in particular Lee Hodges who leads by one. Only two afternoon starters sit inside the top eight - Kevin Streelman and Emiliano Grillo. Tony Finau was six under through six holes but couldn't build on that and remains three back.
Notable Round 1 3M Open Quotes
"I would say it's a ball-striker's course, like getting in the fairways and hitting it on the greens. It's soft out there so you can really attack, like there was a ton of pitch marks right around the holes today because guys were really throwing it at the flag." Lee Hodges
" Yeah, it's been coming. I've been playing good at home and been making some dumb mistakes the first couple rounds, not putting rounds together, just kind of
rust. " Brandt Snedeker
" I'm pleased with the way the game's been trending the last month and I'm not shocked that I was able to play a quality round of golf today." Billy Horschel
2023 3M Open Round 2 Weather
Sunny and hot. Wind 7-11mph.
Back or Fade The Favourite?
Hideki Matsuyama is commanding 9/2 favourite as he sits one shot back. The former Masters champion leads the field in tee to green stats by some distance and that should be a warning to the field if he can maintain that. He lost strokes on the greens shooting 7 under par and has a 7th place finish here in 2019 to confirm his liking for the test, we would be wary of taking him on with short prices around him.
In-Play 3M Open Bets We Considered
As we are of the opinion Matsuyama will kick on from here, we are looking for each way value with five places still available. Ryan Gerard looks a big price at 250/1 with a birdie chance remaining on 18 and we considered Brandt Snedeker but 50's seems a bit right. 70 on the exchange looks worth a nibble though.
3M Open Round 2 Bets
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