Event Info
Starts: 23rd July 2020
Course: TPC Twin Cities
Par: 71 (35-36)
Length: 71 (35-36)
Grass Type: Bentgrass
Defending Champion: Matthew Wolff
Results
Overall Profit/Loss: -4pts
Pre-Event Six to Watch
T18th Sepp Straka - 66/1
MC Troy Merritt - 70/1
T46th Si Woo Kim - 80/1
MC Ryan Armour - 90/1
MC Keith Mitchell - 125/1
MC Chase Seiffert - 125/1
In-play Bets: -4pts
25 July 2020 (-4 Points)
1pt Each Way (1/4 1,2,3,4) Cameron Davis - 28/1 @ Boylesports
2ptsTalor Gooch - 9/1 @ Genting Bet
Preview
Course Info
Opened in 2000, TPC Twin Cities has hosted multiple events on the Champions Tour but last year saw it host the PGA Tour for the first time. The course was designed by Arnold Palmer with Tom Lehman employed as a consultant. As with other Arnold Palmer designs, water features heavily and only four holes on the course don't have hazards in play.
The three par 5s all verge on 600 yards but despite their length played as the three easiest holes on the course last year. The three par 3s are long with two being over 200 yards. Despite their length they all averaged just under par last year. Only three holes averaged significantly over par for the week and those were the 9th, 2nd and 3rd (hardest hole first). These three par 4s are all around five hundred yards and so understandably caused players difficulty.
We saw a winning score of 21 under par last year and saw four rounds of 62 throughout the week so low scoring is likely.
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
Continue to exercise an abundance of caution (credit: Chase Koepka and the PGA Tour) in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals. Grayson Murray has pulled out already this week.
Trends
With only running of the 3M Open we have little information upon which to determine trends this week.
Stats Analysis
Strokes Gained Approach was the key statistic here last year as three of the top 4 ranked 7th or better (Matt Wolff ranked 2nd, Collin Morikawa was 1st and Adam Hadwin was 7th). Bryson DeChambeau was the other player to finish in the top 4 and even he finished 18th in this category.
With water in play on so many holes accurate iron play is crucial to avoid incurring penalty strokes. With low scoring prevalent it was important to minimise errors last year, none of the top four made anything worse than a bogey all week.
In Play
Last year saw Wolff, Morikawa and DeChambeau share the 54-hole lead and those three would have ended up in a playoff had Matt Wolff not eagled the last. Early indications are leaders are preferred going into the final round. With that said, low scores are possible so a win from off the pace cannot be entirely discounted.
Six To Watch
As outlined in our Tipping Record, our strategy is to focus on speciality bets and value in-play. However, we have identified the following six players if you do wish to place a bet before the event begins:
Sepp Straka - 66/1 @ William Hill
The Austrian could go well this week after a subdued week at the Memorial. He finished 14th the week before that and 8th at The Rocket Mortgage Classic, a venue that correlates nicely to here. Sepp has been knocking on the door for a while and may just make the most of this weaker field.
Troy Merritt - 70/1 @ William Hill
Every tipster and their dog seem to have tipped up Troy Merritt this week and it's not our style to jump on a bandwagon but he fits the bill perfectly this week. He was 7th at last years 3M Open and 8th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic a few weeks ago. Troy enjoys an easier course where he can play aggressive golf. Keep an eye on him at 70/1.
Si Woo Kim - 80/1 @ Bet365
In a field devoid of quality, it's surprising to get 80/1 on a former Players Championship winner who posted a top 20 in his last outing. He was 7th Strokes Gained: Approach last week. He played at the 3M Open last year and missed the cut shooting 71-71. However, he was in the middle of a run of 6 missed cuts so we can discount that effort. Coming in this week on better form, he is the kind of player who could win this if he can piece together four rounds.
Ryan Armour - 90/1 @ Bet365
We were surprised to see Ryan priced up at 90/1 given his good play since lockdown. He played particularly well at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and that seems to have been forgotten. A 4th place there followed a 6th at The Travelers. He missed the cut by two shots on his last start but that has just added value to the price and isn't too much to worry about. Ryan should be nice and fresh after a week off and look for him to regain his fine form at a course which should suit.
Keith Mitchell - 125/1 @ Bet365
Keith finished 22nd last week at Memorial with encouraging stats across the board. Encouragingly, he ranked 29th for Strokes Gained: Approach at Memorial last week and if he can carry that forward to this week, he'll be a threat. He's a player who can go well unexpectedly and at a price of 125/1 he's worth chancing in this field when you take into account he won as recently as last season.
Chase Seiffert - 125/1 @ Bet365
Chase returns to action this week having missed out playing The Memorial. Prior to that we saw him at the Workday Charity Open where he posted a 4th place finish, his first top 5 on the PGA Tour. He also ranked 25th for Strokes Gained: Approach that week. We know he's a player who stays hot as he posted three consecutive top 7 finishes on the Korn Ferry Tour last year. At a big price he'll be one to keep an eye on.
In-play
In-Play Blog
25 July 2020
-12 Thompson
-12 Werenski
-11 Finau
-11 Gooch
-10 Zhang
-9 Wolff
-9 Davis
Despite the breeze kicking up yesterday, scoring remained good, and we see five players going into the weekend double digits under par. Once again, Tony Finau is in contention and enters the weekend as the favourite with the bookmakers. He parted ways with his long-time caddie after his collapse at The Memorial last week and it wouldn't be a surprise to see Tony win on Sunday given this change. We haven't seen a ruthless streak in Tony for a long time (if ever!) and this may just be what he needed.
Those around him comprise a mix of promising youngsters (Wolff, Davis and Gooch) and those who have had fairly up and down times on the PGA Tour (Werenski and Thompson). Werenski and Thompson rank 1st and 2nd in Strokes Gained: Putting this week and it's hard to see them continue to hole as many putts as they have done. With difficult conditions forecast over the weekend they look like they could be taken on. Both players last won in 2016 (both on the Korn Ferry Tour) so it's asking a lot for either of them to close out from here.
1pt Each Way (1/4 1,2,3,4) Cameron Davis - 28/1 @ Boylesports
2ptsTalor Gooch - 9/1 @ Genting Bet
We saw Matt Wolff take his first PGA Tour title last year and we are backing Talor Gooch to make the breakthrough this year. Conditions are expected to be mixed over the weekend with scattered thunderstorms and breeze expected. Gooch is a sound wind player having grown up in Oklahoma and with an emphasis on tee to green play this weekend he's a sound pick given he ranks 7th so far in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green.
We're taking a chance on another progressive youngster who likes the wind. Going into the weekend three shots off the pace, Cameron Davis represents a sound each way bet at 28/1. He won the 2017 Australian Open, beating a field that contained Jason Day, Cameron Smith and Jordan Spieth. He also won on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2018 and having recorded top 10 finishes at the Sony Open and Honda Classic earlier this season, looks primed to win on the PGA Tour soon. He ranks 3rd in Stokes Gained: Tee to Green so far this week and with the wind likely to put a premium on the long game this weekend, he's one to watch.