Preview
Course Info
Designer: Alister MacKenzie
Last Used: 2021
Course Type: Long with fast greens
Fairways: Bentgrass
Rough: Bentgrass
Greens: Bentgrass
Water Hazards: On five holes
Par 5's: 2nd, 8th, 13th, 15th
Premium on: Approach play
The Basics
Augusta National is the annual host of The Masters tournament. It was originally designed by Alister MacKenzie but underwent a lengthening process in the early 2000's under the guidance of Tom Fazio. Augusta is a long course, made somewhat longer because the roll on the fairway is minimised due to the grass being cut into the player.
A player comfortable hitting a draw off the tee (or a fade for a left hander) is favoured given it offers a huge advantage on holes 2, 10, 13 and 14. Augusta has severe greens, being extremely contoured and lightning fast.
2021 Recap
A stunning Saturday 65 from Hideki Matsuyama (three shots better than anyone else) gave him a four shot lead ahead of the final round. Three dropped shots in the last four holes made the result appear much closer than it actually was.
Significant Info
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
The conditions in 2020 were somewhat different to a normal Masters so treat those results with caution.
Weather
Thursday: Sunny intervals with chance of showers. Max wind 11mph.
Friday: Sunny. Max wind 12mph.
Saturday: Sunny. Max wind 12mph.
Sunday: Sunny. Max wind 8mph.
Trends
Winning Score
The last fourteen Masters tournaments have seen winning scores range from -5 to -20. However, only two of these years have seen a score better than -16.
Correlating Courses
Riviera CC, home of the Genesis Invitational, correlates nicely with Augusta.
Event Form
Nine of the last thirteen winners had posted a top 10 at Augusta prior to winning. Course form is essential.
Recent Form
Counts for a lot at the Masters, 12 of the past 13 champions had recorded a top 30 finish in their two events prior to winning.
Nationality
Americans have won seven of the past 13 but we've seen a range of nationalities succeed.
Age
Twelve of the last thirteen winners were under 40. The exception? Tiger Woods.
Defending Champion
In the past eleven years, only two defending champions (Jordan Spieth and Adam Scott) have posted a top 25 finish. Spieth is the only player to have posted a top 10 when defending champion in the past ten years.
Major Virgins
Eight of the past 13 players to don the Green Jacket were claiming their first Major. However, it's not an event to record your first ever win in America. Only two of the past 13 champions did not have a previous PGA Tour/Major win.
Masters Exposure
Only two players in the last 42 years have won the Masters having not played at Augusta on the weekend the previous year. They were Patrick Reed in 2018 and Tiger Woods in 1997, two players who are pretty well versed in dealing with pressure situations. It's definitely preferential to back someone who has recent experience of a weekend at The Masters.
Debutants
"I can't think of another course in the world that the more you play, the more you learn." Jim Furyk
No Masters debutant has donned the green jacket since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. Experience counts for a lot round Augusta. However, debutants can contend, particularly if they are a special talent. Jason Day and Jordan Spieth have both gone on to be World Number 1, and both finished 2nd on their Augusta debuts. Will Zalatoris finished 2nd last year on his debut.
World Ranking
Thirteen of the past 14 champions have ranked inside the top 30 at the time of winning. Don't look too far down the rankings for a winner.
Thursday Tee Time
“If there’s a golf course in heaven, I hope it’s like Augusta National. I just don’t want an early tee time.” Gary Player
You won't find Thursday tee times mentioned in many other Masters previews but it's worth noting there have been a number of winners tee off late on a Thursday.
Seven of the last ten winners at Augusta teed off in the final six groups on Thursday. Tiger Woods and Patrick Reed won in 2019 and 2018 having not played in the final six groups but the players who finished in 2nd place those years all teed off in the final 6 groups on Thursday. Hideki Matsuyama won last year with an early tee time on Thursday.
Stats Analysis
We don't get SG stats from Augusta so we look at traditional stats.
Driving Distance
The last six winners have ranked 6-44-6-6-32-52 (most recent first).
Driving Accuracy
Tiger Woods in 2019 was the only player to rank outside the top 30 for Driving Accuracy in the last six years.
SG: Approach
Data from 15th Club (15thclub.com) indicates that winners here have excellent SG: Approach stats. Rankings of winners from 2019 to 2015 were 1-3-2-1-1.
Greens In Regulation
Only Dustin Johnson (13th) and Patrick Reed (21st) have finished outside the top 10 for Greens In Regulation in the past six years.
Putts per GIR
Every winner in the last six years has ranked inside the top 20.
In Play
Tough Holes
In 2021 the 5th was the hardest on the course. The 11th and 4th ranked as the 2nd and 3rd hardest holes.
Birdie Holes
The four par 5s score the four easiest every year and it is vital to play these well. The 3rd and 16th were the only other holes to average under par for the week in 2021.
Closing Stretch
The 17th and 18th ranked as the 7th and 9th hardest holes in 2021.
Fast or Slow Start
Augusta is not a course to play catch up so a good start is vital. Every winner in the past 11 years has been inside the top 11 after round one. The position of the last 11 winners after round 1 was: 2-1-11-4-4-9-1-2-10-4-7 (most recent first).
The last 32 winners have been inside the Top-5 going into the final round. Even then, if you are more than 2 shots back it's going to be an uphill struggle as 22 of the last 25 winners have been within 2 going into the final round. Twenty eight of the last 31 winners have played in the final group on Sunday.
In-play
The Masters 2022 In-Play Blog
10th April 2022, 10:45am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Scheffler |
-9 |
| Smith |
-6 |
| Im |
-4 |
| Schwartzel |
-2 |
| Lowry |
-2 |
| Two players tied |
-1 |
Scottie Scheffler had a six shot lead at one point in yesterday's third round but a ragged back nine saw him fritter away several shots and the lead has been reduced to three.
Scheffler is now a best price of 1/2 to convert and win for the 4th time in his last six starts. Given his recent form and strong Sunday showings (he now has a ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Rating), we expect him to go on and win his first Major.
The case against Scheffler is mainly built around the fact he's yet to win having held the lead on tour. He came from off the pace at Phoenix and the Arnold Palmer and then won his 3rd event in matchplay format. Indeed, the last time he held a lead on tour at the 2021 Houston Open, he would finish 2nd. Prior to that, he led at the American Express in 2020 and went on to finish 3rd.
Wayward drives on 13 and 18 yesterday are a concern but the quality of his iron play is such that he can be forgiven for a few errant tee shots. His nearest rival, Cameron Smith, also hit a terrible tee shot on 18 and was lucky to get away with a par.
Smith is a best price of 14/5 and seems the only player likely to apply pressure to the leader. The Australian has won twice already this year, including the Players Championship, and will relish the opportunity to hunt Scheffler down. Smith slightly edges Scheffler on the Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Ratings, being one of the few players with a ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ rating.
Three of Smith's five individual career wins have come when trailing going into the final round so he's very much a player who is comfortable chasing. We expect him to apply pressure to Scheffler and the gap is unlikely to be three shots come the end of the day.
Those of you who have backed Scheffler can take heart from the fact four of the last five winners of the Masters have been leading after the third round. The only other winner (Tiger Woods) in those five years was 2nd through 54 holes. History suggests it is a two horse race today.
Weather for the final round will be sunny with little breeze. The wind isn't forecast to get above 7mph at any point and the temperature is set to be warmer than round 3.
Round 4 Bets
- Our in-play bets for the Masters are only available to subscribers.
9th April 2022, 10:35am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Scheffler |
-8 |
| Im |
-3 |
| Matsuyama |
-3 |
| Schwartzel |
-3 |
| Lowry |
-3 |
| Four players tied |
-2 |
Like the last couple of years at Augusta, a sizeable lead has formed but this time at has arrived at the halfway stage instead of after the third round. This extra round may give punters hope that Scheffler loses his five shot lead and comes back to the field.
Scheffler is now a shade over evens to close this out with bookies not willing to dangle any tempting odds for the world number one. It's for good reason after all, if you keep your thought process simple, three wins in his last five starts, a player who isn't showing any weakness in any department and a five shot lead should probably equate to odds on.
However, there are a couple of variables you should be aware of before piling in. Scottie is yet to win having held the lead on tour, coming from off the pace at Phoenix and Arnold Palmer and winning his third in a matchplay format.
He is a different animal since then though, but this will be the biggest test of his character to date. Plenty of punters, including us, were too stubborn to take the 16/1 pre-event when he was available at 33's a few weeks ago and anyone that got on ante-post will be licking their lips.
Another area of caution should be the strength of the chasers. Defending champion Hideki Matsuyama looks unphased by his neck injury, Shane Lowry is playing some fantastic golf and looks set to contend, Cameron Smith and Dustin Johnson are still only six back despite poor rounds and Justin Thomas has worked his way back in it after he matched Scheffler's 67.
Sungjae Im and Cameron Smith showed how hard it is to defend the lead yesterday, both shooting +2 and a similar score from Scheffler today would open this right up. The gut feeling is that his lead will be cut to only a couple of shots. The wind is set to be a factor again today, reaching 16mph in the afternoon.
We will be back again before the final round, hopefully to assess an exciting final round leaderboard!
Round 3 Bets
- Our in-play bets for the Masters are only available to subscribers.
8th April 2022, 6:15am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Im |
-5 |
| Smith |
-4 |
| Willett |
-3 |
| Niemann |
-3 |
| Scheffler |
-3 |
| Johnson |
-3 |
| Three tied |
-2 |
The leaderboard has a distinctly 2020 feel to it as Sungjae Im, Cameron Smith and Dustin Johnson got off to hot starts, just as they did in 2020. All three were in the top 6 after the opening 18 holes at the Masters 18 months ago and all three would go on to occupy the first three places on the final leaderboard.
Smith is the 11/2 favourite, having fired a quite remarkable 68. He opened with a double bogey and closed with a double bogey but the eight birdies in between those dropped shots were impressive. He fired four rounds in the 60s in 2020, he's definitely capable of maintaining his pace.
Dustin Johnson is next in the betting at 13/2 and he'll be looking for history to repeat itself on Sunday evening. The 2020 Champion spoke in his post round press conference about how he "swung it really well" and played "really nicely." However, it was interesting to note he said he "wasn't real comfortable with the driver for some reason," and hit mainly 3 woods. Whether that's sustainable around Augusta remains to be seen but it's certainly off putting from a betting perspective.
The leader, Sungjae Im, can be backed at 9/1. He has a favourable tee time, going out in the ninth group today. An average 2nd round in 2020 slowed his chances of winning but he's an improved player since then and likely to fare better. However, with a stellar chasing pack and windy conditions we're not interested in the 9/1 at this stage of proceedings.
World number 1, Scottie Scheffler, is the only other player priced at single figure odds (7/1) and he must be respected given the way he's playing at the moment.
As we mentioned in the Preview, winners tend not to come from too far back at the Masters. Four of the last five winners have been 4th or better after the first round.
The wind will pick up today and blow around 20mph in the afternoon, with the course expected to firm up. Morning starters are preferred.
Round 2 Bets
- Our in-play bets for the Masters are only available to subscribers.
