European Tour In-Play Tips
Joburg Open In-Play Tips
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21 November 2020 10:30pm
-16 Nienaber
-15 Hansen
-11 Norris
-11 Stone
-11 Bland
-11 Blaauw
Wilco Nienaber takes a one shot lead into the final round, hoping to secure his first European Tour title. The bookies have the long hitting South African as the even money favourite and his role as favourite is understandable given his impressive performance in round three. A couple of early bogeys saw him over par through five holes but an impressive back nine of 33 was enough to give him the lead going into Sunday.
Wilco has yet to win as a professional and it's hard to imagine he won't be feeling some nerves early on tomorrow. His length off the tee gives him an enormous advantage and it shouldn't go unnoticed that he's birdied the par 5 5th and 14th holes every day this week. He'll expect to pick up another couple of shots over those holes and an under par round may well rule out the chasing pack. With all that said, even with his enormous potential, he's not a bet we'd want to place given his lack of experience under this type of pressure.
Wilco's nearest challenger, JB Hansen, is also seeking a first win on the European Tour and he too may feel the pressure. He won twice on the Challenge Tour in 2018 but hasn't been able to convert on the European Tour despite having a couple of opportunities. Last seen in contention at the BMW PGA (where he was poor), this is a significant step down in terms of quality and it may well be that experience at Wentworth may have done him the world of good. However, at 7/4 he's not a price we would want to take either.
We still carry hopes for Jacques Blaauw, one of our Six to Watch at 100/1. As we alluded to yesterday, he does tend to struggle with front running and perhaps coming from off the pace will suit him better. A place certainly isn't out of the question.
We have one final in-play bet. We are expecting to see at least one of the players at -11 make a move and with the leaders looking susceptible to a slip up, it is prudent to make a play.
-16 Nienaber
-15 Hansen
-11 Norris
-11 Stone
-11 Bland
-11 Blaauw
Wilco Nienaber takes a one shot lead into the final round, hoping to secure his first European Tour title. The bookies have the long hitting South African as the even money favourite and his role as favourite is understandable given his impressive performance in round three. A couple of early bogeys saw him over par through five holes but an impressive back nine of 33 was enough to give him the lead going into Sunday.
Wilco has yet to win as a professional and it's hard to imagine he won't be feeling some nerves early on tomorrow. His length off the tee gives him an enormous advantage and it shouldn't go unnoticed that he's birdied the par 5 5th and 14th holes every day this week. He'll expect to pick up another couple of shots over those holes and an under par round may well rule out the chasing pack. With all that said, even with his enormous potential, he's not a bet we'd want to place given his lack of experience under this type of pressure.
Wilco's nearest challenger, JB Hansen, is also seeking a first win on the European Tour and he too may feel the pressure. He won twice on the Challenge Tour in 2018 but hasn't been able to convert on the European Tour despite having a couple of opportunities. Last seen in contention at the BMW PGA (where he was poor), this is a significant step down in terms of quality and it may well be that experience at Wentworth may have done him the world of good. However, at 7/4 he's not a price we would want to take either.
We still carry hopes for Jacques Blaauw, one of our Six to Watch at 100/1. As we alluded to yesterday, he does tend to struggle with front running and perhaps coming from off the pace will suit him better. A place certainly isn't out of the question.
We have one final in-play bet. We are expecting to see at least one of the players at -11 make a move and with the leaders looking susceptible to a slip up, it is prudent to make a play.
Sunday's Bets
Brandon fired a 7 under par round of 64 on day three to move himself right into contention. He's driving the ball superbly and striking his irons nicely too. If he putts well in the final round he's more than capable of catching the leaders who may wilt under some pressure. He's a three time European Tour winner and that experience could well pay off against others who have struggled to win at this level or have yet to feel the pressure. Brandon closed strongly when winning his last European Tour title in 2018 at the Scottish Open and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him do so again.
20 November 2020 7:15pm
-13 Blaauw
-12 Nienaber
-10 Cockerill
-10 Hansen (through 16)
-9 Norris (through 15)
We started the day hoping Johannes Veerman would take advantage of his early start, but it was 100/1 six to watch selection Jacques Blaauw who took charge with a tremendous 63. He now sits one shot ahead of young Nienaber, which leaves an interesting dual between experience and young talent.
Although excellent today and in the form of his life with four top 10 finishes in four starts, it would not be a surprise if Blaauw slows up tomorrow and lets a bunch of players back in. It is notoriously hard to back up a low round, and although he is a four time winner in Africa he hasn't done so since 2016. His CV shows quite a lot of runner-up places and there are doubts whether he will be able to get the job done from here with so much at stake.
There is no doubting the talent of Wilco, and he will give himself plenty of opportunities over the weekend with his power, but his short game remains a weakness and he will have to improve around the greens to get over the line. He is yet to win as a professional and he may need one or two more times in the mix before he can finish the job.
Hansen and Norris can't be discounted but they have a few tricky holes to navigate first. Cockerill doesn't have much experience challenging on the European Tour, so will do well to keep his place.
Tomorrow looks to be wet as well as windy so it could be challenging day for the leaders. We have identified a couple of dangers from the pack who can make a move should they falter.
-13 Blaauw
-12 Nienaber
-10 Cockerill
-10 Hansen (through 16)
-9 Norris (through 15)
We started the day hoping Johannes Veerman would take advantage of his early start, but it was 100/1 six to watch selection Jacques Blaauw who took charge with a tremendous 63. He now sits one shot ahead of young Nienaber, which leaves an interesting dual between experience and young talent.
Although excellent today and in the form of his life with four top 10 finishes in four starts, it would not be a surprise if Blaauw slows up tomorrow and lets a bunch of players back in. It is notoriously hard to back up a low round, and although he is a four time winner in Africa he hasn't done so since 2016. His CV shows quite a lot of runner-up places and there are doubts whether he will be able to get the job done from here with so much at stake.
There is no doubting the talent of Wilco, and he will give himself plenty of opportunities over the weekend with his power, but his short game remains a weakness and he will have to improve around the greens to get over the line. He is yet to win as a professional and he may need one or two more times in the mix before he can finish the job.
Hansen and Norris can't be discounted but they have a few tricky holes to navigate first. Cockerill doesn't have much experience challenging on the European Tour, so will do well to keep his place.
Tomorrow looks to be wet as well as windy so it could be challenging day for the leaders. We have identified a couple of dangers from the pack who can make a move should they falter.
Saturday's Bets
Julian sits 5 shots back. Tough conditions over the weekend will demand a lot of scrambling and he ranks 4th for SG: Around the green so far which bodes well. Ranks 13th tee to green and 23rd putts per GIR, so all aspects of his game are in great shape. It's amazing that the American now ranks 410th in the world when he was in the top 70 two years ago, but he is a much better player than his current ranking and has been hinting that he is close to a comeback.
Zander is an all or nothing type player and you never know whether you will get a 65 or 75, but he is worth risking given the price and company on the leaderboard. Like Suri, he is also high on the scrambling stats this week (7th) and 18th tee to green, striking his irons particularly nice. He seems to enjoy his golf back home in SA, finishing 7th and 8th at Alfred Dunhill and Nedbank at the tail end of 2019. He also has a 2nd at the 2016 Joburg Open and 3rd at the 2018 Alfred Dunhill Championship. Snap up the 50 while it's still there.
19 November 2020
-8 Norris
-8 Nienaber
-7 Veerman
-7 Cockerill
-6 Five players tied.
South African bomber Wilco Nienaber and compatriot Shaun Norris took advantage of the slightly easier conditions in the morning, with Veerman and Cockerill doing well to get within touching distance in the the afternoon breeze.
Pre-tournament favourite Bezuidenhout got himself to -5 early on but went backwards on the back 9 and now sits 5 back. Our six to watch are in great shape with everyone -2 or better, including 3rd placed Veerman who was put up at 28/1.
We saw how much the greens firmed up in the afternoon and with consistent winds of 9-12mph forecast tomorrow, we would favour morning starters who can get round before the greens harden.
-8 Norris
-8 Nienaber
-7 Veerman
-7 Cockerill
-6 Five players tied.
South African bomber Wilco Nienaber and compatriot Shaun Norris took advantage of the slightly easier conditions in the morning, with Veerman and Cockerill doing well to get within touching distance in the the afternoon breeze.
Pre-tournament favourite Bezuidenhout got himself to -5 early on but went backwards on the back 9 and now sits 5 back. Our six to watch are in great shape with everyone -2 or better, including 3rd placed Veerman who was put up at 28/1.
We saw how much the greens firmed up in the afternoon and with consistent winds of 9-12mph forecast tomorrow, we would favour morning starters who can get round before the greens harden.
Friday's Bets
Jayden was one of our six to watch at 90/1 but for anyone who is not yet on, 50's still represents value. The highly rated youngster is 4 shots back with an early start, and possesses much more talent than most of the traffic he needs to pass to get to the leaders. As highlighted previously, likes the course, and 7 birdies shows his potential for the next 3 days if he can limit his mistakes.
The Swede is 6 back after an opening 69. With a nice early tee time tomorrow, Joel can make his move though the field. We know he has good memories of South Africa after his 2nd place at Leopard's Creek last year and he came from way off the pace that week. After 36 holes he was 9 behind eventual winner Pablo Larrazabal and only lost out by 1 shot. He has been playing consistent golf of late with finishes of 31-58-22 and a return to SA may just be the perfect boost he needs.
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