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Wells Fargo Championship 2023

 

 

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2023 Wells Fargo Championship Tips

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Event Info

Starts: 4th May 2023
Course: Quail Hollow Club
Par: 71 
Length: 7,521 yards
2022 Champion: Rory McIlroy 

Course Info

Designer: George Cobb (Fazio upgrade 2017)
Used Since: 2003
Fairways: Average width, Tree Lined
Rough: Bermuda (2.5 inches)
Greens: Bermuda (13 stimpmeter)
Water Hazards: On 5 holes
Par 5's: 7th, 10th and 15th
Premium on: Length and scrambling
 

Significant Info

This event is normally played at Quail Hollow but was played at TPC Potomac in 2022 as Quail Hollow was being used for the Presidents Cup later in the year. Ignore the 2022 results if looking at course form.   

This event was not played in 2020 due to the pandemic and the course was not used in 2017 as it hosted the US PGA Championship later that year.

The course was changed to a par 71 from par 72 in 2017.

Quail Hollow is the longest par 71 on the PGA Tour.

Wells Fargo Championship Weather

Thursday: Sunny.  Wind 5-10mph.

Friday: Cloudy.  Wind 5-9mph.

Saturday: Rain showers possible.  Wind 5-10mph.

Sunday: Cloudy.  Wind 5-10mph.

Wells Fargo Championship Trends

Winning Score
Since the switch to a par 71, the event has been won with scores of -10, -12 and -15.  We should expect a winning score in this range.

Course Form
Rory was a previous course winner with a terrific record at Quail Hollow. Homa won in 2019 with minimal course form (a MC and a 76th place finish).  James Hahn triumphed in 2016 having never bettered 50th in three attempts.  Derek Ernst won in 2013 and Rory McIlroy won in 2010 making their debuts at the event.  However, the other five course champions between 2010 - 2019 all recorded a top 10 at Quail Hollow prior to winning.

Recent Form
Three of the past six course champions had recorded a top 20 in their last start prior to winning.  Of the other three, McIlroy had missed the cut on his previous start at the Masters, Max Homa had placed 42nd at the Texas Open the week prior in 2019 and James Hahn won after missing his previous eight cuts in 2016!

World Ranking
The world ranking of the past six course champions has been 15-413-14-134-1-242.  It is possible to land a shock winner in this event but it should be noted one of those shock winners was Max Homa!

Nationality
Americans have dominated this event since it began in 2003.  Only four non-Americans have succeeded here.

Wells Fargo Championship Stats Analysis

We have three years of Strokes Gained data to assess.

SG: Off The Tee
The last three course winners have ranked 18-25-32.

Driving Accuracy
The last five course winners have ranked 76-76-97-38-34.  In general, you don't need to be accurate off the tee.

Driving Distance
The last six winners have ranked 2-36-18-25-2.  Distance is preferred to accuracy off the tee.

SG: Approach
The last three winners have ranked 10-14-71.

SG: Around The Green
The last three winners have ranked 41-76-4.  Despite Max Homa's lowly rank in this category it is worth noting he ranked 2nd in Scrambling for the week, just as Jason Day did the year before. 

SG: Putting
The last Six winners have ranked 3-1-2-9-28. A hot putter is definitely preferred.

Wells Fargo Championship In Play Tips

Tough Holes
16-18
is known as 'The Green Mile' where pars are a great score. Those holes played as the three hardest holes on the course and played 0.78 strokes over par.

Birdie Holes
The par 5's (7th, 10th and 15th) play as three of the four easiest holes.  The driveable par 4 14th hole generally plays as one of the easiest holes too.

Fast or Slow Start
None of the last six winners has been inside the top 16 after round one. Rory McIlroy was EIGHT shots behind after round one in 2021!

Five of the past six champions have been inside the top 5 after round two.

Four of the last six Wells Fargo champions to have won at Quail Hollow have led going into the final round.  McIlroy won in 2021 from two shots back and James Hahn won in 2016 when coming from 3rd after 54 holes.  

 

2023 Wells Fargo Championship Tips

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In-play

Wells Fargo Championship In-Play Blog

7th May 2023, 10:00am (UK time)

 
PlayerTotal
Clark -16
Schauffele -14
Scott -11
Hatton -11
Three players tied  -10

2023 Wells Fargo Championship Round 3 Summary

Wyndham Clark put on a masterclass to record a bogey free round of 63 and establish a two shot lead going into the final round.

Notable Round 3 Wells Fargo Championship Quotes

"I'd like to think I had more chances in the hunt than those two (2020 Bermuda Championship and 2019 Honda Classic), especially this year I feel like I've had a lot of chances. I'd say then I wasn't as good of a player as I am now. I also think mentally, mentally I was a lot more impatient and fragile I think out there. I'm excited to see how I handle the pressure 2 tomorrow. It's going to be a fun challenge. Obviously it's going to be tough, I've got one of the best players in the world right behind me and a bunch of other good players. I'm just really looking forward to the challenge tomorrow." Wyndham Clark

"The rough isn't as penalizing as it is normally when it's bermuda or in the past when it was a little bit longer. With how long the course is, for most of us you have to be in the fairway to attack. The greens weren't super fast -- sorry, weren't super firm, I'd say. In the past you hit a 6-iron, it will pitch and run like 10 yards. So today was more like that 5-ish window, which is pretty consistent." Xander Schauffele

2023 Wells Fargo Championship Round 4 Weather

Sunny intervals with a maximum wind of 15mph.

Back or Fade The Favourite?

Wyndham Clark enjoys a two shot lead at the top of the leaderboard and that has earned him favouritism with the bookmakers.  Clark is available to back at a best price of 11/10.

On the face of it, Clark is a fade.  Looking at the last eight times he has been inside the top five going into the final round, he has slipped down the leaderboard in seven of those eight events.  The only one he didn't?  The 2020 Bermuda Championship, where he would lose out to Brian Gay in a playoff.  

However, Clark seems to be cutting a different figure of late and it will certainly help that he has recent experience of leading, having led the Zurich Classic pairs event after three rounds a few weeks ago.  It's notable he has referenced his perceived improvement mentally in his post round interviews this week and this is as good a chance as he'll have on winning on Tour.  

That improvement has yet to be fully tested though and Clark's record indicates he has to be a fade.  

In-Play Wells Fargo Championship Bets We Considered

The last three course winners have been inside the top two after 54 holes and it's hard to see the winner not coming from Wyndham Clark or Xander Schauffele today.  We haven't rated Schauffele's chances so far this week but yesterday's round has set him up nicely and he's sure to apply the pressure to Clark over the final 18 holes.

Alex Smalley has played nicely so far this week and the 5/4 available with Betfair/Paddy Power for him to record a top 20 finish isn't unreasonable.  He's tied for 16th position at the moment and their price is a standout. 

Matthew NeSmith and Keegan Bradley are both liked to win their two balls today.  NeSmith tops the SG: Tee to Green stats for the week and is up against Kevin Streelman who has been treading water for the past two rounds.  Similarly, Bradly has outscored Ryan Palmer over the last two rounds and is fancied to outscore him again today.

 

Round 3 Bets

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+ - Round 3 Bets Click to collapse

6th May 2023, 9:00am (UK time)

 
PlayerTotal
Hatton -8
Lashley -8
Clark -8
Spaun -7
Schauffele -7
Svensson -7
Im -7
Thomas -7
Scott -7
Three players tied -6

2023 Wells Fargo Championship Round 2 Summary

It's tight at the top at Quail Hollow going into the weekend.  Nineteen players are within three shots of the lead after a second round that saw some friendlier pin positions and little breeze.

Notable Round 2 Wells Fargo Championship Quotes

"I would say I've been way more consistent off the tee and into the greens. My stats in that regards have gotten way better. Mentally, I'm a lot stronger. I'm handling adversity, I'm handling success, I'm handling a lot of things a lot better and I'm 2 more patient out there and more comfortable playing. In the past I feel like I would get a little antsy and uncomfortable out there and now I feel way more comfortable." Wyndham Clark

"I played very solid. I got off to obviously a great start birdieing the first two and let a couple go, making bogeys on holes that I would definitely say are easier holes. It was definitely nice to make that birdie on 15 after hitting that eagle putt past. I just played very solid. I drove the ball really well, hit some very quality irons. I'd really like to wedge the ball closer this weekend, but just very, very solid." Justin Thomas

2023 Wells Fargo Championship Round 3 Weather

Sunny intervals with a light breeze (max wind 7mph).

Back or Fade The Favourite?

Xander Schauffele and Tyrrell Hatton share market favouritism at 13/2.  Hatton ranks 3rd SG:Tee to Green so far this week but it hasn't been a classic tee to green performance from Schauffele, ranking 21st in that same category. 

We mentioned that we weren't keen on Schauffele yesterday at 13/2 and it's even harder to like him now.  Rory McIlroy may have dropped down the leaderboard but the number of top class players around Schauffele has increased and he's a fraction short in the betting in our opinion. We're in no rush to back Hatton either and others would be preferred.

In-Play Wells Fargo Championship Bets We Considered

Winners of this event in the last few years have tended to be inside the top five at the halfway stage.  With a number of proven performers near the top of the leaderboard we aren't looking much further back than the group at five under par.

Max Homa is one of those players in that group at five under par and he could well be the player who makes a move today.  He certainly entered our thoughts given his course win in 2019 and his excellent record in contention of late.

Adam Svensson was the player from near the top of the leaderboard to catch our eye.  Odds of 33/1 felt fair for a player who won at the end of last year and has gained strokes with every area of his game this week. 

Gary Woodland has once again struck the ball tremendously well but can't buy a putt.  He was third in the SG: Tee to Green stats last week in Mexico and tops those stats through two rounds at Quail Hollow.  If he could get the putter working he could make a run from four back at 80/1. 

There weren't many two ball selections that caught our eye but David Lingmerth to beat Denny McCarthy at 7/5 made appeal given the poor quality of McCarthy's iron play this week. 

 

 

Round 3 Bets

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+ - Round 2 Bets Click to collapse

5th May 2023, 9:05am (UK time)

 
PlayerTotal
Fleetwood -6
Streelman -5
Schauffele -5
Moore -5
Palmer -5
Lee -5
Nine players tied -4

2023 Wells Fargo Championship Round 1 Summary

Tommy Fleetwood leads by one shot after finding birdies at his final two holes.  Scoring conditions were good throughout the day and the leaderboard is a mix of morning and afternoon starters.

Notable Round 1 Wells Fargo Championship Quotes

"I did what I needed to on the first few, I made two or three up-and-downs on the first six holes, which kept me at level par and then couple of scoring holes, 7 and 8, that were playing pretty short and managed to make an eagle and a birdie. Round was up and running. Then just really didn't, you know, didn't do anything particularly wrong. I didn't drive it great on the back nine, but I was never like out of position that much, never really hit myself in difficult spots. For the most part that was really good and quite stress free. And then just a good finish on top that. 17 and 18, kind of unexpected birdies there, but you'll take them when they come." Tommy Fleetwood

" I've always had a level of comfort on this golf course, whether it was back in the sort of 2011-2012 era or sort of post-PGA in 2017. If you look at all the results, I certainly excel here in May rather than when we played it in August and it was full of bermuda, I struggled with that a little bit. When it's like this and overseeded, I feel like it's -- that's sort of the right in my wheelhouse. " Rory McIlroy

2023 Wells Fargo Championship Round 2 Weather

Sunny intervals with a light breeze (max wind 6mph)

Back or Fade The Favourite?

Rory McIlroy started the week as favourite but Xander Schauffele edges him slightly after the opening round.  Schauffele is 13/2, whilst McIlroy is 7/1.  McIlroy certainly wasn't at his best from tee to green in the opening round but he still managed a round of three under par.  He spoke after this round of his "level of comfort" being higher at Quail Hollow than any other course on Tour and that makes him a danger throughout the week.

The argument against Schauffele would be that he's yet to record a top 10 finish from three attempts at Quail Hollow.  Schauffele did give a non-committal answer when directly asked if he liked Quail Hollow after yesterday's round.  That question is reproduced below but it appeared to be a corporate answer rather than confirmation that he enjoys the layout.  If we were to fade one of McIlroy, it would be Schauffele.

Q. You also played on the Presidents Cup. Do you like Quail Hollow? Is this like (rest of question unheard) --

XANDER SCHAUFFELE: I mean, you know, I can't call it that quite yet, but it's a nice piece of land they have here. It's a really nice golf course, it's really hard and I think all of us pros enjoy coming out here.

In-Play Wells Fargo Championship Bets We Considered

JJ Spaun, Seamus Power and Keith Mitchell all make appeal in the three ball markets.  We advised Spaun to subscribers yesterday as our only three ball bet in this event and he duly delivered a win.  Available at 11/8 yesterday, the 5/4 on offer today is tempting once again.

Matthew NeSmith was in our thoughts in the second round leader market.  Odds of 50/1 felt particularly generous considering he ranked 7th for SG: Approach in round one and 8th SG: Tee to Green.  Kramer Hickok (80/1) also stood out in that market after topping the SG: Tee to Green stats in round one.

Coincidentally, three of the last four winners of the Wells Fargo Championship have been in 17th position after the opening round.  It should be noted that one of those players in 17th position did so at TPC Potomac rather than Quail Hollow, but the overall premise that you can be a few shots back holds up.  Rory McIlroy was 73rd after the opening round when he won here in 2021!

 K.H. Lee was given to subscribers pre-event at 150/1 and if we weren't already on the two time PGA Tour winner, he'd certainly have been in our thoughts at 40/1.  Keith Mitchell's course record is hard to ignore and having drifted out to 80/1 after an opening round of 69, he too was in our thoughts.  

 

 

Round 2 Bets

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