Tour Championship 2022

Event Info

Starts: 25th August 2022
Course: East Lake Golf Club, GA
Par: 70
Length: 7,346 yards
2021 Champion: Patrick Cantlay

Preview
In-play

Preview

Course Info

Designer: Donald Ross
Used Since: 2004
Fairways: Average (thick rough)
Greens: Bermudagrass
Water Hazards: On 1 hole
Par 5's: 6th and 18th
2021 Stroke Average: 68.62
Premium on: Driving

Significant Info

Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.

There is no cut this week as it is a limited field.

All 30 players will start the 72-hole event with a handicap based on their position in the FedEx Cup standings through last Sunday's BMW Championship.

PLEASE NOTE: Bookmakers are running two different markets this week. The main market is Tour Championship winner which takes into account the handicap start. The other market is being called "Tour Championship without starting strokes". This market is the lowest 72-hole score. Be careful when placing bets that you are betting on the right market.

Starting Leaderboard

Player	Total
Scheffler	-10
Cantlay	-8
Zalatoris	-7
Schauffele	-6
Burns	-5
Five Players Tied	-4

Weather

Thursday
Scattered thunderstorms and max wind of 5mph.

Friday
Scattered thunderstorms and max wind of 5mph.

Saturday
AM thunderstorms and max wind of 6mph.

Sunday
AM thunderstorms and max wind of 8mph.

Trends

Winning Score
Since the format changed in 2019, we have seen winning scores of -18 and -21 (twice).

Handicap
Rory McIlroy won in 2019 when starting with a five shot handicap. Dustin Johnson led from start to finish in 2020, as did Patrick Cantlay last year.

Recent Form
All three winners since 2019 recorded top 20 finishes at the BMW Championship the week before. Patrick Cantlay won the BMW before winning the FedEx last year.

World Ranking
Since the new handicap system was introduced in 2019, the world ranking of the winners has been 3rd, 1st and 4th.

Stats Analysis

We will look at the 72-hole leaders skill sets since 2016.

SG: Off The Tee

1-1-6-1-5-24-4.

SG: Approach

6-15-14-9-17-2-22

SG: Around The Green

8-3-9-2-11-4-1

SG: Putting

9-13-2-11-2-5-4

In-Play

Birdie Holes
The par 5's (6th and 18th), are the easiest holes. The par 3 11th played as the easiest hole in 2021 outside the par 5s.

Fast or Slow Start
Nine of the last twelve winners have been 1st after the 3rd round, and none have been outside the top 3. This is a tough course to play catch up.

In-play

Tour Championship In-Play Blog

28 August 2022, 10.20am (UK time)

Player	Total
Scheffler (Through 12)	-19
Schauffele (Through 12)	-18
Im (Through 14)	-16
McIlroy (Through 16)	-15
Four Players Tied	-14

Round 3 Summary

We were unable to finish round three due to a couple of suspensions in play but Scottie Scheffler has let a few more into it after stalling at 19 under par. Both the leader, and chaser Xander Schauffele, failed to produce their best golf and would have welcomed the break in play. Meanwhile Sungjae Im and Rory McIlroy were in fine form and are within four of the lead now.

Notable Round 3 Quotes

"I was feeling all right. I wasn't playing my best, but I was kind of hanging in there. I was looking forward to giving myself some opportunities at the end, but then the horn went off." Scottie Scheffler

"Well, we're in the middle of it. Yeah, it was an up-and-down day. Maybe a good thing to restart, kind of get focused for tomorrow." Xander Schauffele

Round 4 Weather

Partly cloudy all day. Wind max of 8mph.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

It very much feels like Scheffler is hanging on at the moment and he will need to improve on his play yesterday to close this out, in particular his driving. Both Scheffler and Schauffele putted poorly in round three but it's likely we will see an improvement today. At odds of 11/10 and 2/1, we can't see any value at those prices especially with Im and McIlroy sneaking into it.

Where is the value?

We have no match bets priced up today so very little options available. The 72-hole market is very bunched with over 10 players within two strokes and doesn't appear to be much value on that front.

Round 4 Bet

1pt Rory McIlroy to win the FedEx Cup 11/1 @ Bet365

Rory looks worth a small play here given the way he's playing this week. He was 1st off the tee yesterday and if he continues to drive like that he will have plenty of chances to score tomorrow. It will likely come down to his putter and will certainly need a bit of help from the front two but if he gets that he could find himself in contention come the back nine today.

+ - Round 3 Bets Click to collapse

27 August 2022, 10.00am (UK time)

Player	Total
Scheffler	-19
Schauffele	-17
Rahm	-13
Cantlay	-12
Im	-12

Round 2 Summary

Xander Schauffele continues to hunt Scottie Scheffler down as he closed the gap to two shots. Jon Rahm matched Xander's 63 to emerge as the nearest challenger to the pair.

Notable Round 2 Quotes

"I feel like I've given myself a lot of looks; I've kept the ball in position for the most part. Had a couple bad swings off the tee today, but other than that given myself a lot of looks, and yeah, playing good." Scottie Scheffler

"Well, it fits my eye, the greens being really pure. Just kind of have to do everything pretty well, which sort of feeds into how I play. At times it's okay to be defensive. With ball in hand the first two days it allowed us to be more aggressive if you were in the fairway. That was kind of the mission teeing off on every hole." Xander Schauffele

Round 3 Weather

Partly cloudy all day. Wind max of 5mph.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

Scottie Scheffler will feel hard done by to have shot 9 under par over 36 holes and not stretched his lead but such is the level of Xander's play so far that is where we are at. No one is driving the ball better than Xander which is setting up a lot of chances for him. Scheffler is having to work a little harder for his score by missing more fairways however both rank 1st and 2nd tee to green so it will be a tough ask for Jon Rahm and the chasers.

Where is the value?

We considered taking on Cameron Smith again with doubts over his fitness. JT Poston is priced at 17/10 to win their match today however his iron play was worryingly poor yesterday and is putting us off. If you are desperate for some interest over the weekend, Schauffele looks fairly priced at 9/5 to hunt Scheffler down but we will sit on our hands for now and watch day three play out.

Round 3 Bet

No Bet

+ - Round 2 Bets Click to collapse

26 August 2022, 9.00am (UK time)

Player	Total
Scheffler	-15
Schauffele	-10
Fitzpatrick	-9
Niemann	-8
Cantlay	-8
Three Players Tied	-8

Round 1 Summary

Scottie Scheffler has stretched his lead after birdies on his last three holes. Rory McIlroy produced a brilliant fightback from a triple-bogey start to finish the day three under par.

Notable Round 1 Quotes

"At the beginning of the week last week I didn't feel like I was swinging my best, and as the week went on, I started to swing better and better, and that kind of followed me into this week, so it was definitely some good momentum." Scottie Scheffler

"So, yeah, not the best way to start, but battled back well. The golf course is really soft and really gettable, so I knew there was a lot of holes out there that you could birdie." Rory McIlroy

Round 2 Weather

Partly cloudy with chance of later thunderstorm around 5pm local time. Wind max of 5mph.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

We said in the Fore the Win podcast week it would be hard to see past Scottie Scheffler and it remains the case. 5/6 is short with three days still left to play though and he has two strong chasers in Xander Schauffele and Matt Fitzpatrick.

Xander has a strong record around East Lake and will be optimistic of chasing Scheffler down whilst Fitzpatrick shot the round of the day alongside Joaquin Niemann and are unlikely to go away.

Where is the value?

Joaquin Niemann tempted us in the outright market at 33's but the each way terms are not favourable and he is currently seven back of Scheffler. JT Poston and Aaron Wise were also of interest at 33/1 and 20/1 in the 'without starting strokes' markets however there is one round two match bet we want to focus on.

Round 2 Bet

4pts Rory McIlroy to beat Cameron Smith 5/6 @ 888 Sport

We advised this bet to subscribers yesterday, coming up one short, but it's hard to see Rory not getting the best of it today. McIlroy gave Smith a four shot head start after two holes and played the stronger golf as the round went on. Smith is still struggling with his hip injury, Rory commented after the round, "Yeah, his hip doesn't seem -- he was limping there down that last hole. He played great considering, but I think the soft conditions, as well, probably aren't helping him that much." Rory also has a far superior record at East Lake and we expect a strong showing today. Take the 4/5 available generally if you don't have an 888 account.

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