The Genesis Invitational 2022

Event Info

Starts: 17th February 2022
Course: Riviera CC, California
Par: 71
Length: 7,322 yards
2021 Champion: Max Homa

Preview
In-play

Preview

Course Info

Designer: Neville and Thomas 1926 with Fazio re-design 2008.
Hosted since: 1973.
Course type: Classical, Tree Lined, Undulating.
Fairways: Narrow to average width, Kikuyugrass
Rough: Kikuyugrass, relatively low.
Greens: Poa Annua, 12 on the Stimp, surrounding run off areas.
Water Hazards: None.
Par 5's: 1st, 11th and 17th.
Premium on: Strong approach play.

Significant Info To Be Aware Of

This is the strongest field of the year so far with the world's top 10 teeing it up.

It is particularly hard to hit greens in regulation here so we should expect lots of scrambling needed. Players often struggle with short putting on the greens here.

Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.

Weather

The current forecast is light winds all week with sunshine every day.

Thursday: Sunny with winds of 7mph.
Friday: Sunny with winds of 10mph.
Saturday: Sunny with winds of 10mph.
Sunday: Partly Cloudy with winds of 9mph.

Trends

Winning Score
Has ranged from -11 to -17 over the past six years. The last four editions have been -11 to -14.

Price of Winner
4 of the last 6 winners have started at 50/1 or less. JB Holmes won at 150/1 in 2019 and James Hahn won at 200/1 in 2015 but the fields have got stronger here in recent years meaning one of the world's best usually prevails. Although Max Homa started at triple figure odds last year, he went on to establish himself as a double winner on tour that year.

Correlating Courses
Torrey Pines which hosts the Farmers Insurance Open also uses Kikuya grass with Poa Annua greens. There is a clear correlation to success at the Masters and success here with past winners at both including Adam Scott, Bubba Watson and Dustin Johnson.

Course Form
This is a course where you need plenty of experience to succeed. 5 out of the last six had at least two top 15's prior to winning and the one that didn't - Max Homa - was 5th the year prior to winning. Side with strong course experience.

Recent Form
2020 winner Adam Scott had won his previous start at the Australian PGA but both runners up, Sung Kang and Scott Brown, missed their previous cut at Pebble Beach. Past winners JB Holmes (2019) and Bubba Watson (2015) had both missed the cut at Pebble prior to winning but had shown glimpses before that. We don't need someone in red hot form though.

Nationality
Since 2010, we have had 10 American winners and 2 Australian winners. The Kikuyagrass rough used is similar to the rough used in Australia and South Africa.

Stats Analysis

We are looking for a player with high SG: Off the tee and SG: Approach.

SG: Off The Tee
5 of the last 6 winners ranked inside the top 20. 2021 Winner Max Homa was 2nd in this field last year. Strong driving is preferred.

SG: Approach
3 of the past 6 winners have been in the top 6 and all 6 were in the top 21. Approach play is key.

SG: Around The Green
Only 2 out of the last six winners has ranked inside the top 10 which is surprising given the amount of missed greens. We would still like players with a tidy short game.

SG: Putting
Max Homa ranked 7th in this category last year. JB Holmes was 1st for this category in 2019 but the 2018 and 2020 winners only ranked 27th and 21st. Tee to green is preferred this week as everyone tends to struggle on the greens a little here.

In-Play

Tough Holes
The par 3 4th, par 4's 12th and 15th plays over par.

Birdie Holes
The 511 yard par 5 1st is the easiest hole on the course. The driveable par 4 10th and the other two par 5's (11th and 17th) are all very scoreable. The back nine needs to be taken advantage of.

Closing Stretch
The 16th is a relatively simple par 3. The 17th is a 589 yard par 5, and the par 4 18th is a tough finishing hole requiring a good drive and long iron shot.

Fast or Slow Start
Five of the last 6 winners have all been within 3 shots after round 1 one. Four of the last 5 winners have been leading heading into the final round. You want to be up with the pace here.

2021 Course Notes

Course Form
Each of the last six course winners have posted a top five in the event before. Side with Course experience.

Recent Form
Five of the top 7 had posted a top 20 in their last start.

Driving ability
All six of the last six winners have ranked 27th or better for SG: Off The Tee in their last two starts. With fast greens, strong driving was crucial this year (Homa ranked 2nd SG: Off The Tee).

In-play

2022 Genesis Invitational In-Play Blog

20 February 2022, 2:05pm (UK time)

Player	Total
Niemann	-19
Young	-16
Hovland	-13
Thomas	-12
Morikawa	-11

Joaquin Niemann has increased his lead to three over Cameron Young and is now 2/5 favourite to complete the job. Young is available at 5/1 while Viktor Hovland is available at 10/1, six shots back of the leader.

Niemann putted beautifully yesterday despite not having the same level of tee to green excellence. The Chilean missed his last six drives of the round to the right and will no doubt be trying to figure that out before his round gets underway today.

He emphatically closed the Greenbrier in 2019 to win his only PGA Tour title to date, winning by six shots after a final round 64. Since then though, he has had several opportunities to get a second title and hasn't quite managed it, losing two playoffs.

The expectation on Niemann to close is partly due to the only man within five shots is a rookie - Cameron Young. However, we spoke in yesterday's blog about how impressive he has been under pressure in his short career to date and he appears to have an old head on young shoulders.

We're already on at 13/2 but today's odds of 5/1 might give you a good run for your money. He was unlucky to get a plugged lie in a bunker on 16 which ended up costing him a double, but bounced back with a birdie which is a perhaps an indication of his strong mental strength.

Viktor Hovland is the only other man which we are refusing to rule out, his approach play has been dialled in over the last two days and something appears to have clicked. He has won from six shots back twice in the last three months but it goes without saying he would need a bit of help from Niemann. We were tempted to cover him at 10/1 but prefer him in another market.

As suggested, we can't see anyone further back winning, including Thomas who is only one behind Hovland. He is available at 20/1 but his approach play didn't look as sharp yesterday and ultimately we think it's too much to ask. The same can be said for the likes of Collin Morikawa and Scheffler who have a lot to do.

The weather looks to be similar to the last few days with the wind peaking at 10mph at 2pm. We can expect the course to play even firmer today.

Round 4 Bets

1pt Viktor Hovland LOWEST ROUND 4 SCORE 22/1 @ Skybet
1pt Scottie Scheffler LOWEST ROUND 4 SCORE 25/1 @ Skybet

Skybet are offering this market today and after a bit of digging, it appears the lowest round of the final day at Riviera usually comes from the leading groups. Hovland and Scheffler both shot 66's yesterday and produced excellent ball striking stats. We rate them most likely to make a run at Niemann from off the pace today.

+ - Round 3 Bets Click to collapse

19 February 2022, 12:05pm (UK time)

Player	Total
Niemann	-16
Young	-14
Thomas	-11
Spieth	-9
Scott	-9

We have witnessed some incredible scoring by Joaquin Niemann and Cameron Young over the first two days. To put into context how good their scores are, no player has played the first 36 holes in lower than -12 in the last five years at Riviera.

Niemann now holds a two shot lead over Young, with Thomas five behind the leader. The rest are now at least seven shots back and will need a bit of help from the sensational Chilean.

Halfway leaders don't have a particularly good record here with only one of last twelve the halfway leaders going onto win. Niemann has been flawless so far but odds of 11/10 look short given the above stat and we wouldn't lose much sleep if we went on to win at that price.

Cameron Young is making his course debut, although he had played here at amateur level before. The youngster's driving has been outstanding all week so far but a big improvement in his iron play led to a low round of the week 62. We'll talk a little but more about Young's chances later.

Justin Thomas is five back of Niemann and regarded as his biggest threat at 4/1. He's a justified 2nd favourite given his pedigree however the price is incredibly short - his 2nd round was largely thanks to a hot putter. It has to be said though, Thomas is trending towards a win currently and if he keeps the putter hot he will be in the mix.

There is a mass of top players at the -7 to -9 range - Spieth, Scott, Morikawa, Hovland and Smith who are still in this event. Identifying which one is going to make the move is the hard part and given they all rely on Niemann and Young having an off day, we're happy leave them alone. Adam Scott looks the value at 18/1, the Australian loves this place and both iron play and putting looked sharp yesterday.

We look set for another sunny day with the wind to reach 9pm in the afternoon. Expect the course to play a little bit firmer given the low scoring by the leaders, it would be no surprise for officials to try toughen it up with some tricky pins over the weekend too.

Round 3 Bet

3pts WIN ONLY Cameron Young 13/2 @ Bet365

Had Justin Thomas not got to double figures, this would have been looking more like a two horse race. He has done, and it has added some juice to Cameron Young's price at 13/2. Cameron more than held his own at Sanderson's last year when 2nd to Sam Burns - the halfway leader here last year. He also won both events on the KFT wire to wire last year, showing he is more than comfortable holding a lead if he can get himself into the position. We expect him to continue his fine play over the weekend and expected to see closer to 5/1 today.

+ - Round 2 Bets Click to collapse

18 February 2022, 10:15am (UK time)

Player	Total
Niemann	-8
Scheffler	-5
Spieth	-5
Homa	-5
Young	-5

Joaquin Niemann leads at Riviera after a sparkling round of 63. Nine birdies, eight of which came from approach shots inside 9ft, indicates just how well he was striking the ball.

The Chilean youngster opened 67-68 last year before falling away over the weekend. We don't see him falling away this year and we certainly gave the 5/1 some consideration.

Niemann certainly won't have it all his own way given the quality of players behind him. Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, Collin Morikawa and Scottie Scheffler are all within four shots of Niemann and priced up around the 12/1 mark.

Winners have generally been up with the pace after round 1. With the exception of Adam Scott in 2020, four of the last five winners have been within three shots after the opening 18 holes.

Weather for round 2 will be sunny with a max wind of 10mph in the afternoon.

Round 2 Bets

0.5pts Each Way Russell Knox 125/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-5)

Russell ranked 4th for SG: Approach yesterday and really should have scored better than he did. As has been the case over much of the past couple of years, the putter let him down but we're prepared to take a chance on him finding something on the greens over the next few days. He's out in the morning today and will have the best of the poa greens. He gained strokes putting in two of his four rounds last week and it's not unthinkable he finds something.

0.5pts Each Way CT Pan 150/1 @ Betfair (1/4 1-5)

CT opened with a round of 67 yesterday and his odds are far too big in our opinion. A PGA Tour winner and Olympic bronze medallist, he's also recorded a top 7 finish at The Masters. He spoke in his post round press conference about how he's been working hard on his driving and he's "starting to like the course very well." A top 20 finish last year was a solid effort and we think he's value to post a top 5 or better this year.

0.5pts Each Way Dylan Frittelli 200/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-5)

Dylan completes our trio of outsiders and there's a lot to like about his price. Like the other two we've selected, he's a past winner on the PGA Tour and has shown he can mix it with the top players given his top five finishes at The Masters and The Open. He has an early tee time and we like him to make progress up the leaderboard today.

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