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Sony Open in Hawaii 2022

2022 Sony Open Tips, PGA Tour picks, betting for the Sony Open, golf betting, PGA picks

Event Info

Starts: 13th January 2022
Course: Waialae CC, Hawaii
Par: 70
Length: 7,044 yards
2021 Champion: Kevin Na

Overall Profit/Loss: +6.5pts

Pre-Event Bets: +3pts

1.5pts Each Way Kevin Kisner 35/1 @ William Hill (1/5 1-8)
1.25pts Each Way Billy Horschel 45/1 @ Betfred (1/5 1-8)
0.75pts Each Way Stewart Cink 80/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-8)
0.5pts Each Way Keith Mitchell 80/1 @ Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
0.5pts Each Way Branden Grace 100/1 @ Bet365 (1/4 1-5)

In-Play Bets: +3.5pts

16 January 2022 (+9pts)
4pts Win Only Hideki Matsuyama - 5/2 @ Unibet
1pt
Win Only Seamus Power - 14/1 @ General

15 January 2022(-2pts)
1pt Each Way Charles Howell 66/1 @ SpreadEx (1/5 1-4)

14 January 2022(-3.5pts)
0.25pts Each Way Kevin Tway 300/1 @ Betfair  (1/4 1-5)
0.5pts Each Way Kramer Hickok 175/1 @ Bet365  (1/4 1-5)
1pt Each Way Chris Kirk 80/1 @ Betfair (1/4 1-5)

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Course Info

Course Designer: Seth Raynor
Course Used Since: 1965
Course Type: Coastal
Fairways: Average width
Rough: Bermuda
Greens: Small, Bermuda
Par 5's: 9th & 18th
Water Hazards: On 5 holes
Premium on:  Accuracy

Significant Info To Be Aware Of

-A number of players have not competed since November or early December. However, some players played in the Tournament of Champions last week.
-Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals. 

Trends

Winning Score
Kevin Na triumped with a score of -21 last year with very little wind. Previous winning scores were -11, -22, -17, -27, -20, -23, -17 and -24 (most recent first).  Winning score fluctuates depending on the conditions. 

Correlating Courses
Several players have described the Mayakoba Golf Classic and RBC Heritage (Hilton Head) as similar tests. The Greenbrier was also designed by Raynor and has several players who have done well at both.

Course Experience
Only one debutant has won at Waialae in the past ten years (Russell Henley in 2013).  Side with those with course experience.

Course Form
Five of the last ten winners had posted a top 10 in this event prior to their win.  

Rust
Cameron Smith is the only player to have triumphed in the last 8 years that hadn't played at Kapalua the previous week. However, we should note that he had played in Australia in the third week in December so had the advantage of still being relatively sharp.

Recent Form
Three of the past eight winners had a top 10 at Kapalua and six of the past eight winners were inside the top 21 the previous week.  However, Kevin Na finished dead last in Kapalua last year!  Preference is for players with a top 20 last week or ones that finished the year well in 2020.

Fall Momentum
You often hear many players speaking of "carrying momentum from the fall" into the new year.  Malnati and Kizzire who both started strongly in round 1 in 2021 and spoke of carrying their late 2020 form over. 

Nationality
Americans have dominated here, 11 of the last 13 winners were from the USA.

Weather

Re-cap: In 2021, there was no wind whatsoever. 2020 was extremely windy/wet and 2019 was slightly windier than 2021.

Thursday
Sunny, max wind 7mph.

Friday
Partly cloudy, max wind 5mph.

Friday
Sunny, max wind 10mph.

Friday
Sunny, max wind 13mph.

Stats Analysis

We are looking for a player with high SG Approach and SG: Putting figures this week.

SG: Off The Tee
The last five winners have ranked 44-36-9-107-2 (most recent first).  It's not essential to drive it well here.

SG: Approach
The last five winners have ranked 5-85-7-4-5.  Taking Cameron Smith's 2020 win out, every winner since 2017 has been inside the top 5 for this category.

SG: Around The Green
The past five winners have ranked 8-21-40-59-39.  It's not a key metric this week.

SG: Putting
Kevin Na ranked 23rd last year.  The five winners before him all ranked in the top 6 for SG: Putting. It is a key stat to success here.

In-play

Tough Holes
The opening six holes are generally the toughest section of the course.  Four of the six toughest holes are in this stretch (holes 2, 4, 6 and 1 - in order of difficulty).  The 2021 winner, Kevin Na, only played these holes in 2 under par for the week and 2020 winner, Cameron Smith, played this stretch in +2 for the week!
​
Birdie Holes
The two par 5s are must birdie holes, generally playing at least half a shot under par for the week.

Fast or Slow Start
It is possible to play catch up here. Six of the last seven winners were at least two shots back after round 1. Four of the last seven winners were at least 3 shots back after round 2. We can look for lively outsiders from a few shots back each round. Last year once again proved this. Nick Taylor led after round 2 by two shots, having started the day four behind. Brendan Steele led after round 3 by two shots after starting the round three shots back.

Closing stretch
The final hole (par 5) plays like a par 4 and a birdie is expected.  Eagles are possible.

Player Notes 2021

Brendan Steele - Q. Do you feel there's a little left from last year you're trying to finish off this year? BRENDAN STEELE: All it shows you is that you can do it around this course; you feel comfortable here with the shots and everything. Totally different conditions this year. It's been so nice all week versus last year; it was like you just had to really battle on every shot. You're hitting 5-irons from 160 yards and things like that last year.
Been a totally different kind of week. But I love the course and I love the shots and what it demands of you. It's always nice for me coming off a break because I'm excited to break and sometimes I lose that through the middle of the year.
Charley Hoffman - Q. With that being said, how do you compartmentalize that, knowing that you have to go pretty low? CHARLEY HOFFMAN: Yeah, you never know how much rain -- if it's soft, you can be more aggressive out here. So if the wind stays up -- obviously the wind is the protector on this golf course. If the wind is blowing, par is a pretty good score. If it's just raining and soft, I expect a lot of birdies.
Nick Taylor - Q. How big of an adjustment from Kapalua to Waialae? NICK TAYLOR: Yeah, it's a brutal walk, first off, but there's so many uneven lies, uphill shots, downhill slots, green are undulated and lots of breaking putts. There's really no comparison. I've always liked this golf course. It kind of suits my eye off the tee. I've driven the ball well the last couple days and really putted well.

Patton Kizzire - Q. Speaking of the golf course, when you won here, you were 17-under par; leader is 16-under now. What's the biggest difference if the golf course or conditions from when you won to this year? PATTON KIZZIRE: I think the wind was up a little bit more in 2018 when I won. Some of the greens were a little different. They have changed a few greens. I think guys are continuing to get better at golf.
Patton Kizzire - Q. Why do you feel so comfortable on this golf course? PATTON KIZZIRE: The bermudagrass, the style of golf course, I've just enjoyed a position-style Country Club, risk/reward style golf course with bermuda greens, and this is what we have here. The golf course is fantastic. It's in about as good of shape as I've ever seen it. I certainly do have good vibes here. When I get here, it just feels good, and today was a good start.

Chris Kirk - Q. Talk about the golf course and how firm it is right now. A lot of players have commented that it's fast and firm this year. CHRIS KIRK: Yeah, this is back to what I remember from my first number of years on TOUR. The last few years it's been a little bit soft but this is kind of how I remember it really playing and how I really enjoy playing this track for sure. I just love the 18th hole here, hitting that big, high draw around the corner.

Brendan Steele - Q. Going back to last year, do you feel like you have unfinished business at this golf course? BRENDAN STEELE: I mean, yeah, a little bit. Obviously when you come that close, you hope that maybe you can come back and play well and give yourself another chance. That actually happened for me at Safeway. I was, in 2015 I led for the first 56 holes and kind of exploded on the way in, and then I won in 2016 and 2017. I do have a little history of that, so hopefully that can repeat itself here.

Peter Malnati - Q. How did you find the golf course leading into today and what did you do to take advantage of it? PETER MALNATI: You know, I just really, really enjoy it. You have to control the ball a little bit more off the tee, which hitting fairways hasn't necessarily been my strong suit lately, but control off the tee has always been, so I think it really does suit me well like you said.

Webb Simpson - Q. You play really well on courses like this, old-school, around 7,000 yards. Why is that? WEBB SIMPSON: I love the opportunity to hit wedges and short irons into greens. I feel like that's always been a strength of mine. Even when I don't seem to play well, those still seem to be pretty sharp and I have a lot of those opportunities here. I love when fairways matter. This week, the rough isn't as long as normal but fairways still matter a lot.

Billy Horschel - Q. Course seemed to play firm and fast today. Is that your assessment? BILLY HORSCHEL: Yeah, I haven't played here very much. It's only my fourth time in my career playing. Haven't played it in about four years. I think early in my career, it was always soft and slow, and you just never know with the weather leading up to it. And so it's the first time I've seen it this fast and this firm and I've always wanted to play it this way, and it's exciting to see it because I think this is a really good golf course. Makes you think off the tees and where you try to land it on the greens. The greens are still very receptive but the greens are fast and running out.

Stewart Cink - "I love coming back to Sony and Waialae every year. It's a fun place to start the year for me. It's got narrow fairways, smaller targets, and it feels like a good way to whip yourself into competitive shape really fast."

Players We Almost Backed

NOTE - These are players who we shortlisted for this event but ultimately didn't advise to subscribers.  If you want to find out who we did tip, you can subscribe using the link below.

Jason Kokrak 50/1

Jason was a player we thought long and hard about this week but ultimately left him out in favour of others. A three time winner on Tour, he was awful last week at Kapalua but that's been the story for all his PGA Tour wins. Each time he wins he appears to do so from out of nowhere. He led after the opening day here last year, carding a first round 62. He was also one half of the winning team at the QBE Shootout at the end of last year. He also He's one we will be watching in-play.

KH Lee 90/1

KH was on our short list early this week but his price has come in to a level that's just too short for us to take. Available at 125/1 at the start of the week, his progressive scoring at Kapalua last week caught the eye. His driving accuracy improved each day last week and his iron play also improved by the end of the week. A 19th place finish at Sony last year was a promising effort and he has the potential to finish higher this year having had the benefit of last week's play.

 

 

 

In-play

2022 Sony Open In-Play Blog

16 January 2022, 12:20pm (UK time)

 
PlayerTotal
Henley -18
Matsuyama -16
Kuchar -14
Li -14
Svensson -14
Power -14

As suggested in yesterday's blog, Russell Henley (6/5) maintains his lead but it's been cut to two shots after only managing a 67. Worryingly for the leader, Masters champion Hideki Matsuyama (5/2) is now his closest challenger after a 63. Four players share 3rd place, four back of Henley.

Recent history suggests that this is a a two horse race - the last five winners have been 1st or 2nd after 54 holes. Since 2010, the furthest someone has won from is 5th place, which would rule the 13 unders out. To back this trend up, no one has won from more than four back in the same 12 year period.

With that said, this is a vulnerable leader despite his three PGA Tour wins. It was evident yesterday that Henley was a shadow of the player we saw on the first two days and that was without his playing partner Hao Tong Li putting any real pressure on him. Henley's approach play dropped significantly and a couple of his tee shots looked nervy too.

It is unlikely he will have the same luxury today playing with Matsuyama. A winner two starts ago by five shots, he will be in confident mood of chasing Henley down.

Bizarrely, Matsuyama only ranks 46th for approach and 23rd tee to green and ranks 2nd for putting. This is completely opposite to how he played the course in 2020 and 2021 - dominating tee to green and struggling on the greens. The dilemma is working out whether the putter will run cold or he will regain his tee to green prowess.

Following the 12 year trend above, they're are four more players with a chance of winning today - Matt Kuchar, Seamus Power, Adam Svensson and Hao Tong Li.

Power is the most likely challenger given his recent improvement. Five of his last six starts have yielded a top 21 or better finish and he won the Barbasol Championship from 3 shots back in July. Kuchar hasn't contended in a strokeplay event for quite some time and passed up a good chance to win at the Genesis Invitational in 2020.

Tong Li produced some good irons yesterday but didn't look completely comfortable. We did consider Svensson who passed up several opportunities coming in. The Canadian has won three times on the Korn Ferry Tour from off the pace but he stated he felt nervous yesterday so it is likely to be a good learning experience for him instead of a win. We are happy to pass on both.

Round 4 Bets

  • 4pts Win Only Hideki Matsuyama - 5/2 @ Unibet

We are going strong on Matsuyama to get the job done here despite having to make up two shots. Henley ranks as a 1 star in GBC's Pressure Performance Ratings, as opposed to Matsuyama who we regard as a strong closer. We were expecting to wake up to odds of 2/1 or under on Matsuyama today so we see plenty of value in backing the 5/2 available at Unibet or the Exchanges.

  • 1pt Win Only Seamus Power - 14/1 @ General

We are also going to cover Power, who we consider the biggest threat to the front two. As mentioned in the blog, Power is playing with extreme confidence at the moment. He could have been significantly better off yesterday and if the putter heats up a bit today he can go low enough to nick this.

+ - Round 2 Bets Click to collapse
 

15 January 2022, 11am (UK time)

 
PlayerTotal
Henley -15
Li -12
Kuchar -11
Thompson -10

2013 Sony Open Champion Russell Henley (6/4) finished his second round in sensational style, playing his last six holes in 6 under par. He now leads by three over Hao Tong Li (20/1), with Matt Kuchar (16/1) four back of the leader.

As mentioned yesterday, we were happy to take on Henley due to his win ratio in the last six years and this will be tested over the weekend. He will have to do significantly better than his attempts in 2021.

Henley led twice from the halfway stage last year, firstly at the US Open. He held on well on the Saturday but ultimately collapsed on the Sunday with a final round 76 to finish T13th. This could perhaps be due to the intensified pressure of a major.

However, his performance at the Wyndham Championship should be of real concern to Henley backers. Opening rounds of 62-64 were then followed by 69 and 71 to miss out on a six man playoff by a shot. That included a four shot lead at halfway and three shot lead with a round to go.

Also going against Henley's chances is the success rate at this event of 2nd round leaders. Only 4 of the last 12 halfway leaders have converted and people have come from 5 back (twice), 4 back (three times) and three back (once). Nick Taylor led by 2 shots last year and finished 11th.

There is enough evidence above to suggest we should be taking on Henley this weekend, although it is likely he will maintain his lead into the final round. You may be able to lay him at shorter odds tomorrow. The best tactic for the moment may be to back a couple of likely challengers.

The bookmakers rate Matsuyama (16/1) his closest challenger despite being 6 shots back. It could well look like a good price on Sunday but there is better value elsewhere in our opinion.

Tong Li has surprised everyone this week but digging a little deeper it shouldn't be a huge surprise. Li arrived less rusty than most after a 2nd place finish at the China Open the week before Christmas. He was also 14th in his 3rd last start at the Alfred Dunhill Championship so signs of a revival were on show.

Let's not forget it was only 3 years ago he was ranked 35th in the world and has held off Rory McIlroy to win in Dubai, along with a 3rd at the Open Championship. It's his first time in contention in the States though and we fancy some of the group at 8 under and 9 under to catch him.

Kuchar was on the shortlist before hand but looks short enough at 16's. We are in a great position with our pre-event plays with 3/5 in the top 16 and Chris Kirk made a nice move for us for our in-play bets. There is one more player we want to add at the prices.

Round 3 Bet

  • 1pt Each Way Charles Howell 66/1 @ SpreadEx (1/5 1-4)

Charles Howell looks like the value for the places with a standout 66/1 at SpreadEx. Since 2002, he has played here every year and made every single cut. Unbelievably, seven of these have been top 5's and thirteen of them have been top 15's! The 63 yesterday matched Henley for low round of the day and he has the experience to keep this foot down on this course and make up some ground. The place money is in sight and there's always the chance of a Henley to collapse which makes 66/1 look like a gift.

 

+ - Round 2 Bets Click to collapse
 

14 January 2022, 12:10pm (UK time)

 
PlayerTotal
Na -9
Furyk -8
Henley -8
Five Players Tied -7

Defending champion Kevin Na (4/1) leads by one shot courtesy of an opening 61. Russell Henley (7/1) and Jim Furyk (33/1) are one back.

Remarkably, Na only ranked 55th for SG: Putting despite his low score. As you would expect, on the flip side he ranked 2nd for approach and 3rd off the tee.

There is a warning sign to the field here - Na is usually one of the best putters on tour and last year he putted poorly on the Thursday too before improving the next three days. If Na can maintain his strong tee to green game, he is going to be extremely hard to catch this week.

In the fields favour is that Na has led or co-led after the opening round six times previously on the PGA Tour and he's never gone on to win. Perhaps Na is better from off the pace when he can play aggressively, although it has to be said he has made a 180 with his performances in contention on Sunday's of late.

The record of round one leaders in recent years is poor also - six of the last seven winners were at least two shots back after round one. In fact, Na was five shots behind three players including Niemann and Kokrak this time last year. If you're a big fan of trends, that would also hurt Henley and Furyk's chances.

We're more than happy to take both of them on. For all Henley's brilliance with his irons, one win in his last six full seasons is poor for a player of his quality. He clearly likes this course but odds of 7/1 to hold off those behind and beat Na are too short.

Although not to be completely discounted, it's a big ask for Furyk to maintain his early scoring. His score was boosted by his hole in one on the 17th and he hasn't won since 2015, nor had a top 10 since March 2019.

The early starters look set to play in almost still conditions before the wind picks up to around 9mph in the afternoon, so they are slightly favoured.

Round 2 Bets

  • 1pt Each Way Chris Kirk 80/1 @ Betfair (1/4 1-5)

Kirk opened with a four under par 66 and has a bit of catch up to do. He has an excellent record here with four top 10's in his last nine attempts, including runners up last year and in 2014. He drove the ball really well yesterday and an improvement in his iron play should see him charge up the leaderboard.

  • 0.5pts Each Way Kramer Hickok 175/1 @ Bet365  (1/4 1-5)

Hickok is on the same score and this is a value play given his ability. He almost won the Travelers Championship last summer, losing a chaotic playoff with Harris English. He then finished 4th on his 2nd last start of the season in Houston and seems a player who could sneak an outside win soon. He finished 19th here last year and has improved on every start so far.

  • 0.25pts Each Way Kevin Tway 300/1 @ Betfair  (1/4 1-5)

Kevin is another on four under and similar to Hickok, finished strong at the Houston Open on his second last start, finishing 2nd to Kokrak. He has no form at Sony whatsoever but we're hoping the performance at Houston has given him great confidence and he's worth a very small each way play at 300/1.

 

 

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