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2023 John Deere Classic Tips
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2023 John Deer Classic Info
Starts: 6th July 2023
Course: TPC Deere Run
Par: 71
Length: 7,289 yards
2022 Champion: J.T. Poston
Course Info
Designer: D.A. Weibring
Type of Course: Resort
Used Since: 1971
Fairways: Wide, Bentgrass
Rough: Kentucky Bluegrass with Fine Fescue
Greens: Large, Bentgrass
Par 5's: 2nd, 10th and 17th
Premium on: Birdies, Putting, GIR
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
The event was cancelled in 2020 due to Covid.
We have one of the poorest fields of the year as the stars start to turn their attention towards the Scottish Open and Open Championship.
2023 John Deere Classic Weather Forecast
Thursday
Sunny. Wind 10mph.
Friday
Sunny. Wind 5mph.
Saturday
Thunderstorms possible. Wind 9mph.
Sunday
Thunderstorms possible. Wind 6mph.
John Deere Classic Trends
Winning score
Birdies, birdies and more birdies. Only once since 2014 has the winning score been worse than -19 (in 2017 it was -18) and the lowest score was -27 by Michael Kim in 2018.
Winning Profile
J.T. Poston was world number 99 prior to his win last year. Lucas Glover was ranked 115th in the world when winning in 2021, whilst 2019 champion, Dylan Frittelli, was 133rd in the world. Michael Kim provided a shock when winning in 2108. Kim was world number 473, with only a couple of top 10's on tour prior to winning. The winners before him - Bryson DeChambeau, Ryan Moore, Jordan Spieth, Brian Harman and Steve Stricker - were all established tour players.
Correlating Courses
Silverado Country Club which hosts the Fortinet Championship (formerly the Safeway Open) was flagged up as another course Dylan Frittelli and Michael Kim had top 10's on. It also yields low scoring so may be worth checking.
Course form
Poston had an abysmal course record, having never bettered 64th place in four starts at this event prior to winning. Glover had a solid course record with previous finishes of 10-25-15. Frittelli was a debutant and Kim had two finishes of 71-47 prior. Steve Stricker famously won three years in a row between 2009-2011. Course form preferred but not mandatory here.
Recent form
Only two winners in the last 12 years arrived in red hot form - Jordan Spieth in 2015 and J.T. Poston last year. Lucas Glover was in average form in 2021, Frittelli arrived with form of 46-46-MC in 2019 and Kim was on a run of missed cuts in 2018. Recent form is not a big factor here.
Nationality
Frittelli was the first non-American winner here since 2010 and still is.
John Deere Classic Stats Analysis
We will look at the stats of the last five winners here.
SG: Off The Tee
Poston was 15th, Glover was 29th, Frittelli was 10th, Kim 34th, DeChambeau 17th and Moore 23rd. A solid driver is preferred.
Driving Distance
93-32-27-21-34. Don't need to be a bomber but hitting it far helps.
Driving Accuracy
41-7-2-32-12. Hitting fairways appears to lead to success here despite the wide targets.
SG: Approach
10-3-60-11-22-2. Apart from Frittelli, generally important here.
Greens in Regulation
3-20-10-3-11-1. Very important to hit greens regularly this week.
SG: Around The Green
1-17-2-47-38-32. Not essential.
SG: Putting
31-19-2-1-2-8. A hot putter is key to win here.
John Deere Classic In-Play Advice
Fast or Slow Start
J.T. Poston led from start to finish last year but it is possible to make up ground after a slow start. Jordan Spieth was eight shots behind after the opening round in 2015 and six back after the opening round for his 2013 win. Zach Johnson was seven shots back after round one in 2012 and Lucas Glover was five shots back in 2021.
It is possible to play catch up from halfway, Frittelli and Spieth (twice) were five shots back and Zach Johnson was four shots behind. However, five of the last eight winners were leading heading into the final round.
Closing stretch
The 16th is a relatively easy 167 yard par 3, 17th is an easy par 5 and 18th is a tough par 4.
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2023 John Deere Classic Tips
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In-play
2023 John Deere Classic In-Play Blog
9th July 2023, 10:30am (UK time)
Player | Total |
Todd |
-16 |
Schenk |
-15 |
Smalley |
-15 |
McCarthy |
-15 |
2023 John Deere Classic Round 3 Summary
Round two leader, Cameron Young, was badly out of sorts yesterday and could only manage an even par round of 71. Brendon Todd has assumed the mantle but there are 15 players within four shots of the lead.
Notable Round 3 John Deere Classic Quotes
"Three and a half years ago when I won back-to-back. I shot maybe 62 in Bermuda and 67 or something on Sunday at Mayakoba. So I think most of the time out here you are going to have to put up a good round on Sunday to win. Like you said, it's a very bunched leaderboard with a bunch of great players who are looking to go low. The winner can come from anywhere, so I'm going to have to go out there and treat it like I'm just in the bunch trying to shoot the lowest score." Brendon Todd
"I would say after my first experience here in 2021, I liked the golf course. I feel like it suited me relatively well, so I would say after that year I felt pretty comfortable. I was looking forward to coming back last year and playing as a PGA TOUR member. Yeah, I played well. I'm trying to remember how I finished. I might have had a top 20. Yeah, I feel very comfortable here. I think it depends on the player how comfortable they feel at different venues. Obviously some guys feel comfortable on different venues rather than some other courses. You know, there's no right or wrong reason why that is. So, yeah, I would say this is an event I certainly have circled on my calendar at the beginning of the year looking forward to." Alex Smalley
2023 John Deere Classic Round 4 Weather
Sunny. Max wind 7mph.
Back or Fade The Favourite?
Brendon Todd is the 18/5 favourite but he's a favourite worth taking on in our opinion. Todd ranks second in SG: Putting so far this week and whilst it's entirely possible that he could remain hot with the flat stick over the final round, it wouldn't b a surprise to see the putts dry up under pressure.
Todd converted third round leads at the 2019 Mayakoba Classic and 2014 Byron Nelson but he has been unable to convert his last three leads (2019 RSM Classic, 2020 Travelers Championship and 2020 St Jude Invitational). He didn't even finish inside the top 10 from his two most recent 54 hole leads.
Two of the last four winners of this event have led after the third round but Lucas Glover was in twelfth position when winning in 2021. With plenty of players in contention and a potentially vulnerable leader, we could well see someone win from off the pace.
In-Play John Deere Classic Bets We Considered
Greyson Sigg and Jonas Blixt appealed purely from a price perspective. Odds of 100/1 and 80/1 seem more than fair for two players who have shown on multiple occasions they are happy to go low.
John Deere Classic Round 4 Bets
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8th July 2023, 12:10pm (UK time)
Player | Total |
Young |
-13 |
Schenk |
-11 |
Higgo |
-11 |
2023 John Deere Classic Round 2 Summary
Cameron Young claimed a two shot lead with a 64 whilst round one leader Jonas Blixt went backwards with a 73.
Notable Round 2 John Deere Classic Quotes
" I definitely drove it better yesterday. I don't know what the stats, but yesterday I think I only really -- I might have missed three fairways, but two of them were first cuts, and they were both really good shots right down the middle of 9 and right down the middle of 4." Cameron Young
"Just another solid ball-striking day. I think they mentioned I hit 16 of 18 greens, so that's obviously a good recipe. Just make a few more putts over the weekend, and hopefully that gives me a chance." Adam Schenk
2023 John Deere Classic Round 3 Weather
Sunny. Max wind 9mph.
Back or Fade The Favourite?
Cameron Young remains favourite but feels very short at 2/1 despite his two shot lead. 28 players are still within 6 of the lead and low scores are the order of the day here so he will need to keep the pedal down. Adam Schenk is a big threat two shots back, as are former PGA Tour winners Brenden Todd and Garrick Higgo.
In-Play John Deere Classic Bets We Considered
Kevin Streelman was the hardest to leave out after his 63 yesterday, ranking 3rd tee to green and 2nd approach. He has been hitting his irons well for weeks now and can capitalise at some point, and he also has two top 10's here before. We preferred one other in the end.
John Deere Classic Round 3 Bets
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7th July 2023, 11:30am (UK time)
Player | Total |
Blixt |
-9 |
Murray |
-7 |
Six players tied |
-6 |
2023 John Deere Classic Round 1 Summary
Jonas Blixt had two eagles in a round of 62 and he leads by two shots after the opening round.
Notable Round 1 John Deere Classic Quotes
"With my status out here this year with the past champion category, it's kind of tough. You don't really know what you are going to get into. Luckily, I had pretty good success right off the bat when I started playing out on the Korn Ferry. I pretty much have locked up my card out there, like I was saying earlier. I think that right there gives me a little more freedom when I do get into these events too knowing that, hey, I'm going to be all right for next year. Now this is just kind of bonus. Obviously I teed up this week to win, but anything will help me going forward, whether it's the top 10, a top 5, whatever. I think I'm just going to keep the same approach that I've been keeping out on the Korn Ferry, which I've been doing really well on, so..." Grayson Murray
2023 John Deere Classic Round 2 Weather
Sunny. Max wind 5mph.
Back or Fade The Favourite?
Cameron Young is the 6/1 favourite and has to be respected after an opening round of 65. He lost strokes yesterday on approach though and given his poor recent form, it has to be a doubt whether he can continue to score well.
In-Play John Deere Classic Bets We Considered
Richy Werenski appealed solely on price, odds of 80/1 tempting for a player who has shown he can cross the finishing line.
John Deere Classic Round 2 Bets
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