Event Info
Starts: 27th May 2021
Course: Colonial CC
Par: 70
Length: 7,209 yards
2020 Champion: Daniel Berger
Results
Overall Profit/Loss: +3.99pts
Pre-Event Bets: +1pts
1pt EW Billy Horschel 55/1 @ Paddy Power (1/5 1-8)
0.75pts EW Sergio Garcia 66/1 @ Ladbrokes (1/5 1-8)
0.5pts EW Ian Poulter 80/1 @ William Hill (1/5 1-8)
0.5pts EW Russell Knox 90/1 @ Betfred (1/5 1-8)
0.5pts EW Andrew Putnam 200/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-8)
0.5pts EW J.T. Poston 200/1 @ Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
In-Play Bets: +2.99pts
28 May 2021 (+3.37pts)
1pt EW Brandt Snedeker 33/1 @ BetVictor (1/5 1-5)
0.5pts EW Sebastian Munoz 80/1 @ William Hill (1/5 1-5)
29 May 2021 (-0.38pts)
1pt EW Patton Kizzire 22/1 @ Boylesports (1/4 1-3)
Preview
Course Info
Designer: Bredemus & Maxwell
Used Since: 1946
Fairways: Bermudagrass
Rough: Bermudagrass.
Greens: Small, Bentgrass.
Water Hazards: In-play on 6 holes.
Par 5's: 1st and 11th
Premium on: Approach play and Putting
Significant Info
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
Weather
It looks set to be a mixed week, with thunderstorms forecast for Friday and Saturday.
Thursday
Partly cloudy, max winds 13mph.
Friday
Possible thunderstorm in morning, max winds 9mph.
Saturday
Possible thunderstorms, max winds 11mph.
Sunday
Partly sunny, max winds 10mph.
Trends
Winning Score
Winning scores in the last ten years have ranged from -10 to -20.
Course Form
The event tends to favour players who have experience of playing the course before. In the last 21 years, 17 of the winners have recorded a top 14 finish here at Colonial prior to their win. Indeed, 16 of those 17 winners had recorded a top 10 finish at Colonial prior to donning the winner's plaid jacket. It is also significant to note that in the last ten editions of this tournament, seven of the winners recorded a top 14 finish in the year prior to winning. Previous form here counts for a lot.
Colonial isn't a course that favours debutants given there has only been one player in the past 21 years who has won on his debut - Sergio Garcia in 2001.
Recent Form
This was the first event back after the hiatus for Covid-19 so Daniel Berger won last year having not played an event in months. However, he was in razor sharp form before the break (three top 10s immediately prior). The champions of 2019 and 2017, Kevin Na and Kevin Kisner, had shown little form in the weeks preceding their win so it is possible to find something at Colonial.
World Ranking
Last year's winner, Daniel Berger was 106th coming intot he event. Prior to that the winners ranked 52-5-43-2-23-2-111. This isn't an event where we usually see shock winners.
Nationality
Fifteen of the past eighteen champions have been American.
Stats Analysis
SG: Off The Tee
The last four winner shave ranked 53-21-4-47. It's not essential to be dominant off the tee.
Driving Accuracy
The last five winners have ranked 33-28-9-1-82. Accuracy off the tee is marginally preferred to distance. That shouldn't come as a surprise given this was the course Annika Sorenstam chose to compete with the men when appearing as the first female professional on the PGA Tour in 2003.
Driving Distance
The last five winners have ranked 44-82-23-64-23. Distance off the tee definitely isn't required this week.
SG: Approach
The last four winner shave ranked 11-1-1-25. Approach play is crucial at Colonial Country Club.
Greens In Regulation
The last five winners have ranked 5-1-1-2-25. Hitting the small greens this week is a definite advantage.
SG: Around The Green
The last four winners have ranked 48-79-28-3.
Scrambling
The last three winners have ranked 37-17-30.
SG: Putting
The last four winners have ranked 12-2-25-5-2. A good week with the putter is needed.
In Play
Tough Holes
After a gentle start at the opening two holes, players then face the ‘Horrible Horseshoe,’ two difficult par 4s and a 250+ yard par 3. These three holes (3rd - 5th) ranked the three toughest in 2020, averaging a collective 0.51 shots over par.
Birdie Holes
The 1st and 2nd holes are traditionally the easiest holes on the course.
Closing Stretch
17 and 18 offer birdie opportunities, both played under par last year and have done so regularly in recent times.
Fast or Slow Start
Four of the last five winners have been inside the top 10 after the opening round. It is vital to be up with the leaders at halfway given that four of the last five winners have been inside the top three after 36 holes.
In-play
Charles Schwab Challenge In-Play Blog
30th May 2021, 1.45pm
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Spieth | -15 |
| Kokrak | -14 |
| Garcia | -10 |
| Munoz | -8 |
| Poulter | -8 |
A second consecutive 66 was enough for Jordan Spieth to retain his one shot lead going into the final round of the Charles Schwab Challenge.
Spieth is now a general 2/5 shot to convert and we're not keen to oppose him given his strong performance when in front at the Valero Texas Open. He never looked in any trouble that day and given his familiarity with Colonial CC, he's expected to win again today.
Jason Kokrak matched Spieth's 66 and he remains the nearest challenger. Kokrak is a general 9/4 as he goes in search of his second PGA Tour win. He ranks 1st SG: Tee To Green so far this week and will likely make Spieth work for his win.
We are very much hoping the leading pair slip up. Sergio Garcia (66/1) and Ian Poulter (80/1) were put up pre-event for our subscribers and Sebastian Munoz was advised after the first round at 80/1. With that in mind, we'll be cheering on those three and won't be having any further bets.
The final round is set to be dry with a max wind of 9mph.
Round 4 Bet
- No further bets
29th May 2021, 7.00am
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Spieth | -11 |
| Kokrak | -10 |
| Garcia | -8 |
| Munoz | -8 |
| Kizzire | -8 |
A rain delay wasn't enough to stop Jordan Spieth shooting a four under par 66 and he now finds himself in sole possession of the lead and odds on (10/11) to win for the second time at Colonial.
Spieth spoke of suffering fatigue towards the end of his round and the field will be thankful he wasn't on top form following the rain delay. However, he's yet to make a bogey and is very much the man to beat over the weekend.
Jason Kokrak is the only other man double digits under par and he's rated a 5/1 shot to slip on the plaid jacket on Sunday. Kokrak won for the first time on the PGA Tour last year at the CJ Cup with weekend rounds of 68-64. He'll likely need something similar to overturn Spieth over the next two rounds.
Our 66/1 pre-event tip, Sergio Garcia, set up plenty of good birdie chances on his front nine yesterday and could easily be a few shots better. Once again the putter let him down and he'll need to hole more to challenge Spieth over the next 36 holes.
The forecast is once again set to be mixed, with rain forecast for the morning but dry in the afternoon. The wind is forecast to reach a maximum of 7mph.
Four of the last five winners have been inside the top 3 at the halfway stage so we are focusing on the top of the leaderboard.
Round 3 Bet
- 1pt Each Way Patton Kizzire 22/1 @ Boylesports (1/4 1-3)
Patton has a fine record in Texas this season having placed 3rd last time out at the AT&T Byron Nelson and 9th at the Valero Texas Open. He ranks 15th SG: Tee To Green this week. His last win on the PGA Tour came in 2018 at the Sony Open. He trailed by four shots at halfway on that occasion and fired a weekend 64-68 to take the win. He's obviously going to need to overcome Jordan Spieth to win this one but we're willing to take a chance.
28th May 2021, 7.15am
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Spieth | -7 |
| Garcia | -7 |
| Compton | -5 |
| Kokrak | -5 |
| Three players tied | -4 |
Another event in Texas and another event where Jordan Spieth tops the leaderboard. Three closing birdies, including a chip in on his 17th hole were enough to see him post 7 under and it looked like he would have sole possession of the lead (he was as short as 1/7 for first round leader).
Spieth is now 7/4 to win and that's short enough for us not to get involved. He was a general 5/2 to convert when in a similar position two weeks ago at the AT&T Byron Nelson and we're in no rush to back him now at shorter odds. It should be said that he didn't have the same bank of course form at TPC Craig Ranch as he does at Colonial. However, with rain forecast for the next three days, we're happy to leave him alone.
The man that caught Spieth is our pre-event 66/1 tip, Sergio Garcia. Sergio played in the harder conditions and a bogey free round was a good effort. He's now a best price 13/2 and we'll be hoping he can kick on from here. He seemed content in his post round interview, he's clearly more settled now that he has re-signed with Taylor Made.
The forecast is set to be mixed today with rain showers expected throughout the day. However, the wind shouldn't exceed 7mph.
Our Preview highlighted the need to be inside the top 10 after the opening round. Both of our Round 2 bets follow that trend.
Round 2 Bets
- 1pt Each Way Brandt Snedeker 33/1 @ BetVictor (1/5 1-5)
Brandt was on our shortlist for this pre-event due to his solid course record and recent signs that he was coming back into form. A 2nd place finish here in 2015 was particularly eye catching and there's every reason to think he can replicate that sort of performance this week after getting off to a fast start. We felt 66/1 pre-event was a little skinny but we're happy to get involved at 33/1 given his current position and the players around him on the leaderboard.
- 0.5pts Each Way Sebastian Munoz 80/1 @ William Hill (1/5 1-5)
Sebastian had a very solid day yesterday, ranking 6th SG: Tee To Green. He's a past winner on the PGA Tour having won the Sanderson Farms Championship in 2019 and at 80/1 he's a reasonable bet. Note - he is available at 90/1 elsewhere with only four each way places available. We'd prefer the five places at 80/1.
