Event Info
Starts: 20th January 2022
Courses: Stadium & Nicklaus Courses at PGA West. La Quinta Country Club.
Par: 72
Length: 7,113 yards, 7,159 yards and 7,060 yards.
2021 Champion: Si Woo Kim
Results
Overall Profit/Loss: -16.5pts
Pre-Event Bets: -9pts
1.5pts Each Way Seamus Power 33/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-8)
0.75pts Each Way Michael Thompson 70/1 Skybet (1-5 1-8)
0.5pts Each Way Russell Knox 100/1 @ Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
0.5pts Each Way Adam Svensson 100/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-8)
0.5pts Each Way KH Lee 100/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-8
0.5pts Each Way Lucas Glover 125/1 Bet Victor (1-5 1-6)
0.25pts Each Way J.T. Poston 300/1 @ Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
In-Play Bets: -7.5pts
23 January 2022(-3.5pts)
1.5pts Patrick Cantlay Win ONLY 14/1 @ Betfair
1pt Jon Rahm Win ONLY 20/1 @ Betway
0.5pts Each Way Davis Riley 100/1 @ General (1/5 1-4)
21 January 2022 (-4pts)
1.5pts Each Way Joseph Bramlett 33/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-5)
0.5pts Each Way Martin Trainer 250/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-5)
Preview
Course Info
Course designer: Stadium - Pete Dye. Nicklaus - Jack Nicklaus. La Quinta - Lawrence Hughes.
Course used since: 1960
Course type: Resort style courses
Fairways: Wide
Greens: Bermuda
Premium on: Putting
Weather
Thursday
Sunny. Max Wind 6mph.
Friday
Sunny. Max Wind 5mph.
Saturday
Sunny. Max Wind 10mph.
Sunday
Sunny. Max Wind 8mph.
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
-A number of players have not competed since November or early December.
-Last year, due to Covid, there were no amateurs and La Quinta Country Club was dropped.
-The cut will be made after 54 holes this year, unlike last year where it was made after 36 holes.
-The Nicklaus played as the 2nd easiest course on Tour the past three years. The Stadium is slightly harder but still easy.
-Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
Trends
Winning Score
Since the tournament changed to a four round event in 2012, the winning score has been between -20 and -28. We can expect the winning score to be at least 20 under par again.
World Ranking
World rankings of the past eight winners before their win has been 96-240-417-3-204-120-33-69 (most recent first). Surprises do happen here!
Previous Wins
Eight of the last ten winners had won on the PGA Tour before.
Correlating Courses
With the Stadium course being the host course, there are arguments for looking at form on other Pete Dye designed courses. The 3M Open seems to be a strong correlating event.
Course Form
Since 2012, five of the nine champions had posted a top 25 finish prior to winning. If we extend that to top 35 finishes, seven of the past nine champions had that prior to winning.
Course Experience
Only one of the past ten winners was making his tournament debut. Side with course experience.
Recent Form
With the event coming early in the year the recent form of past champions has been mixed. The common factor amongst the past ten winners is that nine had already teed it up that calendar year (regardless of how they had performed). Indeed, the top seven in 2021 had all played at least once in Hawaii. Look for someone who has dusted off the clubs before this week.
Nationality
Americans have dominated with 8 of the last 10 winners. We wouldn't put too much emphasis on it though.
Stats Analysis
We only have Strokes Gained stats from the Stadium Course (with the exception of last year, where SG was recorded on the Nicklaus course also).
Strokes Gained: Off The Tee
The past five champions have ranked 10-7-72-6-1 (most recent first). With the exception of Adam Long in 2019, winners have driven the ball well.
Driving Distance
The past eight champions have ranked 53-126-56-7-6-96-67-12 (most recent first).
Driving Accuracy
The past eight champions have ranked 38-7-25-46-122-10-49-75 (most recent first).
Strokes Gained: Approach
The past five champions have ranked 2-13-69-16-9 (most recent first).
Greens In Regulation
The past eight champions have ranked 1-9-62-26-1-24-3-14 (most recent first). Adam Long was once again the outlier in 2019.
Putts per GIR
The past eight champions have ranked 14-1-1-8-31-9-58-4. (most recent first). Putting is crucial this week.
In Play
Tough Holes
The par 3, 17th hole on the Stadium Course is one to watch out for. Like another Dye design, TPC Sawgrass, players are challenged with an island green. It played as the hardest hole on the course in 2021, averaging 0.21 shots over par. Two of the other par 3s, the 6th and 13th, were next hardest in 2021 (averaging 0.16 and 0.09 shots over par). Completing the holes averaging over par in 2021 were the 18th and 3rd (both averaging 0.08 shots over par).
Birdie Holes
In 2021 and 2020 the 11th, 16th and 8th played as the easiest holes. The par 3 4th hole also regularly plays under par.
Fast or Slow Start
Since 2016, the highest score recorded by the winner in round one was 66. It's important to get off to a fast start.
However, the past two years have shown us players can make a significant move on the final day. Si Woo Kim jointly led through 54 holes last year but Patrick Cantlay shot a final round 61 to lose out by only one shot. We saw a similar scenario play out in 2020 with Abraham Ancer firing a final round 63 to take solo 2nd.
Player Notes
Q. How much do you like Pete Dye golf courses?
SI WOO KIM: Yeah, I have great memories with this course. So for Q-School, I passed the Q-School on this course, and then I have great memories and then that's why I feel confidence whenever I come to this course. So that helps a lot for me this week, especially I try to focus on the memories that gave me good scores, so that's why it drove me to the win.
Players We Almost Backed
NOTE - These are players who we shortlisted for this event but ultimately didn't advise to subscribers. If you want to find out who we did tip, you can subscribe using the link below.
Andrew Putnam 160/1
Solid course credentials and a decent run last week at Sony. Ultimately others preferred.
Chris Kirk 110/1
Another with a strong week at Sony and solid course record in this event. On to watch in-running.
Hudson Swafford 250/1
A past champion at this event, Hudson's price was a huge draw this week. However, his approach play was poor for 3 out of 4 days last week.
Gary Woodland 110/1
Gary is definitely one we'll e watching in-running. He has an excellent record in season opening events but ended last year poorly. If he makes a fast start we'll look to get him onside.
Nate Lashley 350/1
Nate missed the cut last week but his approach play was excellent, if he can get the rest of his game firing he'll be in with a shout this week.
In-play
American Express In-Play Blog
23 January 2022, 7:40am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Hodges | -18 |
| Barjon | -18 |
| Hoge | -17 |
| Power | -16 |
| Six Players Tied | -15 |
Round one leader Lee Hodges (9/2) shares the lead again after a blistering final 9 holes at the Stadium Course which he played in six under par. Paul Barjon (5/1) has joined him following another excellent round on the host course and both have their best ever chance of their maiden PGA Tour title.
Both players are bound to be feeling nervous today and Hodges already produced a nervy 72 following his first round lead. Barjon's best finish on tour is a T20 back in 2019 and Hodges T11 at the Barracuda last year.
Funnily enough, both players led a Korn Ferry Tour event in Portland in 2020 and Hodges got the better of Barjon that day, winning by two shots over the Frenchman. Neither were convincing though and they shot the two worst scores out of the resulting top 10.
That was Hodges only win to date, however Barjon has won more recently, winning a KFT event in May last year. Even for that win, he let slip a three shot lead but to his credit defeated two players in a playoff. We are happy to oppose both of them and expect a winner from further back.
Tom Hoge is the nearest challenger, which is frustrating for us having fancied him last week at the Sony Open. Hoge was 6th here in 2020 and with eight career PGA Tour top 5's, seems like a player who is destined to win soon. This is a great opportunity for him and odds of 13/2 are tempting.
One back from Hoge is our man Seamus Power who was our headline bet this week at 33/1. He is the form player on tour at the moment and is the most accomplished so far out of the top four. He is now 6/1 to get the job done and we are optimistic of his chances.
A group of six players lurk three back of the leaders and they look likely to put pressure on the final group. Patrick Cantlay is now four back and Jon Rahm has given himself a half chance five shots back. We expect at least one of them to make their move today.
Round 4 Bets
- 1.5pts Patrick Cantlay Win ONLY 14/1 @ Betfair
- 1pt Jon Rahm Win ONLY 20/1 @ Betway
Both of the pre-event market favourites have some work to do but with doubts surrounding the leaders we are happy to chance the cream rising to the top. Last year, we saw Patrick Cantlay finish with a 61 to miss out on a playoff by one shot, only the excellence of Si Woo Kim that day denied him. In 2020, we saw Abraham Ancer shoot a final round 63 to narrowly miss out by two shots. Again, Andrew Landry was solid to hold on but we can see a different ending this year as the leaderboard stands. Take a chance on the big boys to finish fast here.
- 0.5pts Each Way Davis Riley 100/1 @ General (1/5 1-4)
Davis is worth a small investment despite being five shots back. He is a massive talent set for big things and has the ability to go low and grab a place here. He shot a 68 at the Stadium Course yesterday which included four missed putts under 10ft. The pressure is completely off him today and we expect a strong finish.
Don't forget to check out our final round show which is available on YouTube (search for The Closing Stretch). It is also available as a podcast (search for The Closing Stretch with your normal podcast provider).
22 January 2022, 12:40pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Cantlay | -14 |
| Hoge | -13 |
| Zalatoris | -12 |
| Griffin | -12 |
| Sigg | -12 |
| Young | -12 |
| Bramlett | -12 |
Patrick Cantlay takes a one shot lead into the weekend at The American Express.
The American is now a general 6/4 shot to land his 7th PGA Tour win. His 68 kept alive his remarkable run of rounds in the 60s. He's now shot 69 or better in 21 consecutive rounds and you'd bank on him doing so again today.
The 6/4 is made even more attractive by the fact only one of the players (Lanto Griffin) within two shots of his score has won on the PGA Tour before. Will Zalatoris is obviously a special talent but the fact remains he's yet to get over the finishing line on a Sunday.
Zalatoris shot a scintillating 61 yesterday and he's firmly in contention now. The wind being up for round 3 should improve his chances and odds of 12/1 are not unattractive. We certainly prefer him to Tom Hoge at the same odds.
We'll see sunshine in the 3rd round but the wind will kick up to around 15mph and should keep a lid on scoring.
Round 3 Bet
- No bet
We have a number of players on the fringes of contention from our outright selections and yesterday's selection, Joseph Bramlett, is also in contention. We are happy to let today play out and review again ahead of the final round. Don't forget to watch our new show, The Closing Stretch, for a full breakdown of all our final round bets. Last week we landed a 7/1 two ball treble!
The show is available on YouTube (search for The Closing Stretch). It is also available as a podcast (search for The Closing Stretch with your normal podcast provider).
21 January 2022, 9:20am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|---|
| Cantlay | -10 |
| Hodges | -10 |
| Lee K H | -8 |
| Young | -8 |
As expected, Patrick Cantlay and Jon Rahm have started strong at the easier La Quinta course and dominate the betting. Cantlay has a four shot advantage over Rahm and is now 2/1 favourite, while the Spaniard is available at 9/2.
Surprise package Lee Hodges shares the lead with Cantlay and also played La Quinta. Lee has one Korn Ferry Tour win to his name in 2020 but it's his first time playing each course and he will likely struggle to back it up for four days.
With market favourites starting strong and not much juice in their price, it seems sensible to chase some good each way value. La Quinta played the easiest yesterday, averaging almost 3 under par and the Nicklaus course played more than 2 under par already.
It seems sensible to focus on the guys that scored well at the Stadium Course yesterday as it played the toughest and bodes well for the final round on Sunday. K H Lee leads the way at the host course and we are delighted with that given we tipped him at 100/1 pre-event (he was available at 125/1 for fewer places).
There are two more players we want to add to the staking plan today.
Round 2 Bets
- 1.5pts Each Way Joseph Bramlett 33/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-5)
Joseph played incredible golf yesterday, shooting 7 under par at the Stadium Course whilst losing shots with the putter. He ranked 1st for approach and 2nd for driving, so his long game is in terrific shape. He won the Tour Championship by four shots last year which will give him great confidence this week and a T20 last week at Sony was a nice warm-up. With the easier courses to play, we expect him to continue his fine play.
- 0.5pts Each Way Martin Trainer 250/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-5)
Regular readers will be aware that we are always willing to take a chance on Trainer if he starts well. He repaid our faith last year at the Houston Open and can do so again here after a great start at the Stadium Course. The putter was the main contributor to his score yesterday but the other two courses are easier tee to green so he can give himself chances as the week progresses.
