Preview
Course Info
Designer: Ron Prichard
Used Since: New venue (Course used prior for WGC FedEx St Jude Invitational and FedEx St Jude Classic)
Fairways: Zoysia, Narrower than average
Rough: 2.5 inches - Not severe
Greens: Bermuda grass - Smaller than average
Water Hazards: In-play on 8 holes
Par 5's: 3rd and 16th
Premium on: Solid tee to green and approach play
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
This event is the first of the Fed-Ex playoff series where the top 125 on the PGA Tour money list compete. The Top 70 will advance to the BMW Championship next week.
This course hosted WGC events in 2021 and 2020, it was previously the host of the FedEx St Jude Classic. We therefore have 30+ years of course form.
The course underwent an upgrade in 2004, with Loren Roberts overseeing a host of changes including new trees, additional bunkers, narrowing of the fairways and a change to Bermuda grass on the greens. Place less emphasis on any form pre-2004.
Since 2003, TPC Southwind’s 5,989 balls in the water are the most at any PGA TOUR course during that stretch. TPC Sawgrass (4,809), Muirfield Village (4,753) and PGA National (4,730) are the next three. (Source - PGA Tour)
Weather Forecast
Thursday
Possible thunderstorms. Wind around 7mph.
Friday
Partly cloudy. Wind around 9mph.
Saturday
Sunny. Wind around 8mph.
Sunday
Partly cloudy. Wind around 5mph.
Trends
With this switching to a FedEx event, trends hold less significance.
Past champions have also found success here with Berger, Johnson and Justin Leonard having twice triumphed in the past 12 years.
American golfers have dominated with only Abraham Ancer, Lee Westwood and Fabian Gomez having won from other countries since 2000.
Stats Analysis
Seven of the last ten winners at TPC Southwind have led the field in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green so there is an emphasis on players who are striking the ball well. With smaller than average greens, and water a persistent threat, it's no surprise a sound long game is required.
A look at the stats of the top four last year are below. It's clear there is less emphasis on driving and more on approach, whilst a tidy short game on and around the greens looks a key for success too.
SG: Off The Tee
16-60-32-20
Driving Accuracy
10-47-10-8
Driving Distance
57-38-23-25
SG: Approach
5-6-7-2
Greens In Regulation
5-23-9-5
SG: Around The Green
6-3-21-5
SG: Putting
10-2-4-38
In Play
Tough Holes
The 457-yard ninth is a hard dogleg to the right that requires a precise, long tee shot before an approach shot over water. Players out of position off the tee will likely need to hit a conservative second shot up the right side. The 18th hole has water running along its entire left side, but unlike No. 9, this 453-yard par-4 is a dogleg to the left.
The 239-yard, par-3 14th hole can also sneak up on players with water down the right side. Any pin positions on the right side of the green will require players to make a full carry over the water. (Source - PGA Tour)
Birdie Holes
The par 5 16th played the easiest over the four days in 2021.
Fast or Slow Start
None of the three men in the playoff last year were within four of the lead after day one. The previous two WGC winners at Southwind were in the top 18 after round 1.
All three winners have been inside the top 12 at halfway.
In the past, winners tended to be within striking distance going into the final day but not necessarily leading. Koepka was a stroke back in 2019 and overcame Rory McIlroy to win. Both DJ and Daniel Berger won in 2018 and 2016 respectively when leading after the third round. Berger's second win in 2017 came from three shots off the pace with a round to go.
However, in 2022, Sam Burns and Hideki Matsuyama came from 8 and 9 shots back of leader Harris English to reach a playoff which they lost to Abraham Ancer. Comebacks are possible here with lots of water in play.
Closing stretch
The 16th is the easiest hole on the course but the 17th is tough and in 2021, No. 18 played as the course’s second-toughest hole with an average score of 4.14. Only No. 5, a 485-yard par 4, played harder at 4.22. However, while players made six double-bogeys or worse at No. 5, they racked up nine such scores at TPC Southwind’s challenging finishing hole. (Source - PGA Tour)
In-play
FedEx St Jude Championship In-Play Blog
14 August 2022, 8.10am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Spaun |
-13 |
| Straka |
-12 |
| Zalatoris |
-11 |
| Mullinax |
-11 |
| Smith |
-11 |
| Duncan |
-10 |
| Merritt |
-10 |
| Nine players tied |
-9 |
Round 3 Summary
Sepp Straka stood on the 16th tee with a two shot lead but a sloppy finish from him and a couple of birdies from JJ Spaun saw the American retain a one shot lead at the top.
Notable Round 3 Quotes
"It was a theme of patience, I believe, for today. I didn't make a birdie until 11 and had a few good looks, but it was one of those days where I felt like I was going to get lapped. But I think I kind of mentioned that yesterday where watching the leaderboard you kind of, I used to not want to look, but maybe in the past I would have not looked and think I'm getting lapped, but reality was I was even par and I was still tied for the lead for the most part. It kind of helped me be OK with being patient. Then ended up finishing the round strong with a couple birdies on 16 and 17. Got the lead going into tomorrow." JJ Spaun
"You know, I love playing this place. I played well here last year and got some good vibes running around this place...I had him (caddie Joel) start reading the putts yesterday and obviously it's been a nice little run. We've obviously been close all year, but having that confirmation in there has been super helpful the last couple days." Will Zalatoris
Round 4 Weather
Mostly sunny with the wind expected to peak around 8mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Cameron Smith is 4/1 favourite. He's playing some great golf this week, ranking 5th SG: Tee to Green for his opening three rounds. That's quite different from his other wins this year which have largely been powered by his exceptional putting.
However, a win this week would see the Aussie take over as world number 1. We've seen before how that can distract players and that would be a concern in our eyes. There's no doubt Smith can win but with that distraction looming over him, we're prepared to consider others.
Will Zalatoris is just behind him in the betting at 9/2 and has to be a factor given the way he's played the last two rounds. We advised Zalatoris pre-event at 25/1 and we're obvioulsy hoping this is the week he finally wins his first PGA Tour title. He ranks 4th SG: Tee to Green this week, a mighty effort considering how poor his first round stats were.
Where is the value?
Will Zalatoris is the man we like to lift the trophy later today but with Smith lurking we don't see the need to top up on our existing 25/1 bet. We also have Sepp Straka and Trey Mullinax onside at 90/1 and 66/1 respectively. Some bookmakers are offering four each way places this morning and Sam Burns made appeal at 20/1. However, we see no need to dip back into the outright market given our existing position.
Round 4 Bet
With significant interest already at the top of the leaderboard, we're content to cheer on our existing bets.
13 August 2022, 9.10am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Spaun |
-11 |
| Straka |
-10 |
| Merritt |
-10 |
| McCarthy |
-9 |
| Smith |
-8 |
| Harman |
-8 |
| Finau |
-8 |
| Palmer |
-8 |
Round 2 Summary
JJ Spaun holed a 13ft birdie putt on his 17th hole to take a one shot lead going into the weekend.
Notable Round 2 Quotes
"I think it was probably blowing a solid 10 to 15 consistently all day and then got a couple gusts maybe higher than that. That makes things tougher and you've got to take more aggressive lines, start lines over water or, you know, taking it, you know, more of a riskier approach when you have the wind factored in today. I think that was the biggest difference than yesterday." JJ Spaun
"I think yesterday might have been some of the worst luck I think I've had my entire professional career. I got a stretch of three plugged balls in bunkers in four holes. I knew I was due for some good breaks. I putted really nicely today, made a lot of up-and-downs. I think I had 23 or 24 putts today, so putted nicely. I made a lot of putts from 10 to 15 feet. Typically I'm going to have more opportunities than any guys out here due to my ball-striking, but taking advantage of those are typically when I have rounds like today." Will Zalatoris
Round 3 Weather
Sunny with the wind expected to peak around 10mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Cameron Smith has assumed 6/1 favouritism. The Aussie has so far deflected talk of a move to LIV Golf but that hasn't affected his game to date as he ranks 2nd SG: Tee to Green. He's a definite danger over the weekend.
Tony Finau is 15/2 2nd favourite. He was wayward off the tee yesterday, hitting only five of 14 fairways. He ranks 106th in Driving Accuracy and we'd need to see more from him off the tee before backing him at such odds.
Where is the value?
Sepp Straka remains a big price at 20/1, if we weren't already on him we'd be looking towards him today. However, we've got him onside already and there's one price that particularly appeals to us.
Round 3 Bets
- 0.75pts Each Way Trey Mullinax 66/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-5)
Trey ranks 3rd SG: Tee to Green so far and odds of 66/1 are generous enough to catch our attention. He has a fantastic course record, finishing 18th and 6th here in his last two starts. He's a PGA Tour winner, having won only three starts ago at the Barbasol Championship, where he was impressive down the closing stretch.
- 0.5pts Each Way Greyson Sigg LOWEST 3RD ROUND SCORE 100/1 @ Boylesports (1/4 1-5)
Sigg made the cut on the number, shooting a 2nd round 68 to get himself inside the cut line. His iron play has let him down slightly this week but it was only three starts ago he was 7th at the 3M Open, ranking 9th for SG: Approach. Sigg tees off first this morning and will play by himself. We often see players take advantage of this situation and shoot a low score as they are able to get into a rhythm without a playing partner to slow them down.
12 August 2022, 8.10am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| S W Kim |
-8 |
| Spaun |
-8 |
| Theegala |
-7 |
| Poston |
-6 |
| Finau |
-6 |
| Straka |
-6 |
| KH Lee |
-6 |
Round 1 Summary
Si Woo Kim holed out for eagle on his final hole and was joined by JJ Spaun, who birdied two of his last three holes. Both players played in the morning but there were a number of afternoon players who shot good scores too, including Sahith Theegala.
Notable Round 1 Quotes
"It was great to start birdie 2 under and then I was a little struggling putting and then I just decided to change the putting grip, so I think that makes more feel comfortable. I think that's why a couple putt on the back nine and I got confidence, keep going through." Si Woo Kim
"I honestly credit some of this to the move to Houston. I moved to Houston four months ago now, to The Woodlands, and I've been practicing in this stuff like every day. I'm like I'm never going to play in grainier conditions than there and these might be a little bit grainier, so it's helped a ton just practicing there the last three months." Sahith Theegala
Round 2 Weather
Sunny with the wind expected to peak around 10mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Tony Finau has assumed the role of market favourite having opened with a six under par 64. It's hard to build a case against Finau given he's won his last two starts and appears to have gained an enormous amount of confidence.
With the exception of Justin Thomas in 2020, winners here in the last five years have come from outside the top dozen after the opening round. Although we like Finau's chances, we're happy to seek out a few larger prices.
Si Woo Kim is next in the betting at 12/1 but given his comments above regarding changing putting grip mid-round, we're less keen on him than Finau.
Sam Burns is also a general 12/1 and he's a definite danger. However, the 12/1 is no more than fair.
Where is the value?
We're looking at two larger prices this morning in the outright market and one price in the 2nd round leader market.
Round 2 Bets
- 1pt Each Way Sepp Straka TO BE 2ND ROUND Leader 40/1 @ Unibet (1/5 1-4)
Straka posted the joint 2nd best score in the afternoon yesterday and now has the opportunity to set a score in the clubhouse in round two. The Austrian played really nicely yesterday, ranking 10th SG: Tee to Green. A similar level of performance will see him go close and given he's a bets price of 30/1 elsewhere, the 40/1 is a price worth taking.
- 0.5pts Each Way Sepp Straka 90/1 @ Unibet (1/5 1-5)
We also like Sepp in the outright market and are having a small play on him for much of the same reasons we like him in the 2nd round leader market. He's a winner already this season at he Honda Classic and although his recent form has been poor, he's too big to ignore at 80/1 and above.
- 0.5pts Each Way James Hahn 150/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-5)
James made headlines earlier int he week when he suggested that the life of Tour pro was difficult but that didn't seem to affect his performance on day one and odds of 150/1 are sufficiently tempting to draw us in. He's currently three shots off the pace but was solid off the tee and on approach yesterday and can build on encouraging recent form. He hasn't played this event much over the years but 6th and 45th in his last two starts here are a positive.
