Preview
2023 LIV Golf Mayakoba Tips
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Event Info
Starts: 24th February 2023
Course: El Camaleon Golf Club, Mexico
Par: 71
Length: 7,034 yards
2022 Champion: New Event
Course Info
Designer: Greg Norman
Course used since: 2023
Course type: Coastal and tree lined
Fairways: Narrow in places
Greens: Paspalum
Par 5's: 5th, 7th & 13th
Water Hazards: On 10 holes
Premium on: Approach play & putting
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
This may be the first time LIV Golf has hosted an event at Mayakoba but this was an annual PGA tour venue from 2007-2022.
Trends
Winning Score
Between 2013 and 2022, the winning score at El Camaleon was -17 and -23. We won't reach those numbers this week though as LIV Golf Mayakoba is a 54 hole event and not a 72 hole event.
Course Experience
Nine of the last ten champions of the Mayakoka event on the PGA Tour had played the event before (even if that was a missed cut). Having course experience would appear to be an advantage and we should factor that into our thoughts this week. We're definitely weighting course experience when making our LIV Mayakoba picks.
Course Form
Despite the need to have teed it up in this event, it hadn't been necessary to play well here prior to winning on the PGA Tour. Of the previous seven winners here, only three had a top 40 finish prior to winning.
Recent Form
Three of the last ten PGA Tour champions had posted a top seven finish in their previous start. Of the remaining seven winners, only two (Matt Kuchar and Russell Henley) had not recorded a top 40 finish in their previous start. Recent form is important, look for those players who have teed it up already this season and played well.
Nationality
Americans dominated here when it was a PGA Tour stop. Since the tournament began in 2007, the only non-American winners were Graeme McDowell (2015) and Viktor Hovland (2020 and 2021).
World Ranking
The last nine winners on the PGA Tour ranked 59-17-23-185-40-236-271-82-90-68 (most recent first) in the world rankings. Outsiders can win here and you shouldn't be afraid of selecting those unfancied players when making your LIV Mayakoba picks.
Weather
Friday: Thunderstorm possible. Wind 10-14mph.
Saturday: Thunderstorm possible. Wind 10-14mph.
Sunday: Sunny. Wind 9-13mph.
Stats Analysis
We have stats available for previous PGA Tour events although no Strokes Gained stats are available.
Driving Distance
Only three of the last nine winners on the PGA Tour ranked inside the top 20 for Driving Distance (Viktor Hovland (2020 and 2021) and Charley Hoffman (2014)). Russell Henley (2022), Brendon Todd (2019) and Graeme McDowell (2015) won when ranking outside the top 90 in this category. Hitting it long off the tee isn't necessary when making your LIV Mayakoba picks.
Driving Accuracy
Only three of the last nine winners (Matt Kuchar (2018), Viktor Hovland (2022) and Russell Henley (2023)) finished inside the top 15 for Driving Accuracy. Three of the last nine winners have finished outside the top 50 in this category.
Greens In Regulation
Seven of the last nine winners have ranked inside the top 14 for Greens in Regulation. Russell Henley ranked 21st in 2022 and Graeme McDowell (2015) was the only other winner not to have been inside the top 15. Players who find plenty of greens are preferred.
Putts Per GIR
Eight of the last nine winners have finished in the top 14 for putts per GIR. The only player who didn't (Matt Kuchar - 2018) ranked 61st. A hot putter is essential.
In Play
Fast or Slow Start
Every winner on the PGA Tour had posted a score of -2 or better in the first round. Three of the last eight winners on the PGA Tour opened with a round of 63 or better. Five of the last seven winners of the Mayakoba Classic were inside the top five after the opening round. The last seven winners were inside the top three through 54 holes.
Tough Holes
Be aware the 1st and 2nd holes traditionally play as two of the harder holes, a par start isn't unreasonable. The 11th hole played as the hardest hole the past two years.
Easy Holes
As with most events, the par 5s are the easiest holes. The two short par 3s on the front nine (4th and 8th) generally offer up birdie chances too.
Our LIV Golf Mayakoba Picks
- 3pts WIN ONLY Abraham Ancer 12/1 @ Unibet/Bet Rivers
Ancer finished inside the top 25 in each of his last 4 starts in Mayakoba on the PGA Tour. Three of those starts yielded a top 10 finish so he clearly likes playing in front of his home fans. He started the year in excellent fashion, winning the Saudi International and can be backed to continue that hot run of form this week with Dustin Johnson and Cameron Smith vulnerable.
- 1pt Each Way Jason Kokrak 50/1 @ Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
The 37 year old American has three top 20 finishes at this Greg Norman design on his CV and has started the year with a pair of top 20 finishes at the Saudi International and the International Series Oman. He is certainly one to watch this week at a favourable price.
- 0.75pts Each Way Kevin Na 70/1 @ Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
Danny Lee and Bubba Watson were under consideration but their price has contracted and it is Kevin Na who gets the nod. Na wasn't a regular participant in this event when it was held on the PGA Tour but he did record finishes of 5th and 36th in his two starts. He missed the cut in his only start this year but that doesn't overly worry us as his last three wins have all come after missed cuts or finishing last at a no cut event. He's been practicing hard at home in Las Vegas and should go well this week.
- 3pts Graeme McDowell TOP 20 Finish 6/4 @ General
McDowell has yet to really make his mark on LIV Golf, his best effort coming in the opening event in London last year. However, that could all change this week as he returns to a course where he has triumphed in the past. His lack of length off the tee shouldn't be a factor and his two starts this year have been solid, if unspectacular. Back the man from Northern Ireland to kick off his LIV campaign with a top 20.
2023 LIV Golf Mayakoba Tips
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In-play
2023 LIV Golf Mayakoba In-Play Blog
26th February 2023, 9:25am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Gooch |
-9 |
| Uihlein |
-9 |
| Howell |
-8 |
| Casey |
-6 |
| Grace |
-6 |
2023 LIV Mayakoba Round 2 Summary
Peter Uihlein had a three shot lead at one stage of the second round but two bogeys in his final three holes, along with Talor Gooch birdieing two of his final three holes, means that we have a tie at the top going into the final round.
Notable Round 1 LIV Mayakoba Round 2 Quotes
"Anytime you can go bogey-free on a course like this, you've played some good golf. The wind wasn't quite as strong out there today, so I think the scoring conditions were a little bit more doable." Talor Gooch
"Yeah, played well. All you can do really out here is just keep it between the trees, and I did that quite well today. Yeah, drove it nice. Had a lot of good chances on the front, and holed some nice putts. The back is tough. It's a tough nine. There's some tough driving holes with the way the wind is. But yeah, all in all, it was a solid day. Yeah, seven birdies is definitely very solid on a day like today." Peter Uihlein
2023 LIV Mayakoba Round 3 Weather
Mostly sunny. Wind 12-14mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Talor Gooch can be backed at a best price of 2/1. A winner on the PGA Tour at the 2021 RSM Classic, Gooch has yet to better a 6th place finish in LIV Golf. That 6th place finish came at LIV Boston, where he led by a stroke with one round to go. A final round 69 that day saw him slide down the leaderboard and we're in no rush to back the favourite.
Gooch's co-leader, Peter Uihlein, can be backed at 7/2. Like Gooch, Uihlein also has experience of taking a lead into a final round on LIV. The American was one shot ahead going into the final round of LIV Golf Jeddah and forced Brooks Koepka into a playoff that day. Uihlein has certainly stepped his game up since joining LIV, something he attributes to being "a lot happier playing golf." He shouldn't be dismissed in the final round.
Charles Howell III is available at 9/2. Howell has hardly been prolific in his career and his price is no more than fair.
Where is the value?
The PGA Tour events held at El Camaleon showed the importance of being up with the leaders (the last seven winners were all inside the top three with one round to go) and for that reason, we aren't looking past the players at six under par.
Round 3 Bet
- 2pts Win Only Peter Uihlein 7/2 @ Unibet/Coral
Uihlein has been runner up in two of his last three LIV appearances and was unlucky not to win LIV Jeddah in October. He's become a much better golfer since joining LIV and that's even backed up by his 10th place finish at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship on the DPWT last year. A stumbling finish yesterday saw him relinquish the sole lead but that may prove to be a positive thing given he shares the pressure of leading with Gooch. He's good value to win his first LIV title today.
Golf Betting Picks
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25th February 2023, 8:25am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Kokrak |
-6 |
| Casey |
-6 |
| Uihlein |
-4 |
| Ortiz |
-4 |
| Gooch |
-4 |
| Five players tied |
-3 |
2023 LIV Mayakoba Round 1 Summary
Paul Casey birdied his last three holes to grab a share of the lead with our 50/1 pre-event selection, Jason Kokrak.
Notable Round 1 LIV Mayakoba Round 1 Quotes
"I drove it really nice in the Middle East for two weeks. Problem was I was in the simulator on Sunday before I left for here, and the face of my driver popped out. I had a backup, but the backup was not quite the same as the one I was working with. I worked the last couple days to kind of fit some different things, tweaked a couple things with the driver, a little bit more open and a little slide away at the bottom that I felt pretty good movement. Kind of tweaked those, but I drove it really nice. Been putting very well. David gives me a lot of good reads, a lot of confidence on the greens. If I take care of the ball-striking, we're going to be right in the mix." Jason Kokrak
"I've been striking it well. I haven't played as much golf as I probably would to this point. I thoroughly enjoyed the fact that we had an off-season. I took full advantage of it. My ball-striking is always my sort of strength, my forte. Ball-striking was good coming in, played some practice rounds with Bryson and Ban and Chucky. In fact, at various times we've played all as a team this week. But the putting was, to be honest, not very good the first three days being on-site and even in the pro-am yesterday. My putting wasn't very good, and I worked with -- Johnny Long Socks is back out" Paul Casey
2023 LIV Mayakoba Round 2 Weather
Mostly sunny. Wind 12-14mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Paul Casey is the favourite with several firms offering 6/1 and 11/2. However, it is notable that several other bookmakers have priced him up as low as 3/1 to win his first LIV golf event. The Englishman finished 5th at the Saudi International three weeks ago and is clearly striking the ball well. With back issues seemingly no longer troubling him and the return of his long time caddie, Johnny McLaren, Casey will be in confident mood over the weekend.
Jason Kokrak can be backed at 13/2. Those of you who took our pre-event advice and backed him at 50/1 will be hoping he can continue his form over the remaining 36 holes. A cracked driver before the event started certainly didn't help his cause but it was also notable that he said he's worked very hard in the off season on his fitness and short game. We like him to contend on Sunday.
Dustin Johnson is a general 13/2. The man who topped the LIV Golf rankings last year can't be written off and will surely get stronger as the week progresses given this is his first start of the season.
Where is the value?
The 6/1 available on Paul Casey with William Hill (or 11/2 with Skybet) certainly makes appeal and we'd suggest backing those prices before they disappear. However, those prices likely won't last long and we want to add a player in the group at 3 under par to our staking plan.
Round 2 Bet
- 1.5pts Win Only Marc Leishman 25/1 @ Unibet/Bet Rivers
Leishman was on our shortlist pre-event after a 6th place finish at the Saudi International. He's very much a player to follow when on form and especially so when conditions are breezy. He closed with back-to-back birdies in his opening round and that momentum will set him up nicely for moving up the leaderboard in round two. Note - William Hill are offering 33/1 on Leishman and you should take this price if you are able to.
Golf Betting Picks
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