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2023 LIV Golf Andalucia Tips

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LIV Andalucia Event Info

Starts: 30th June 2023
Course: Real Club Valderrama, Spain
Par: 71
Length: 7,010 yards

Course Info

Type of Course - Classical, Tree Lined
Course Designer - Robert Trent Jones
Greens - Small, fast, bentgrass
Fairways - Narrow, undulating
Par 5's - 4th, 12th, 17th and 18th
Premium on - Tee to green, accuracy and scrambling.

Weather Forecast

Friday
Sunny. Wind 12-22mph.

Saturday
Light rain. Wind 15-25mph.

Sunday
Sunny. Wind 15-25mph.

Significant Info To Be Aware Of

Valderrama is located in the resort of Sotogrande, San Roque, in the Andalucia region of southern Spain a few miles from Gibraltar.

It hosted the Volvo Masters between 1988 and 1996 and again between 2002 and 2008. It also hosted the 1997 Ryder Cup when Europe were captained by the late Seve Ballesteros and Tiger Woods made his debut. More recently, it hosted the European Tour between 2016-2022.

Designed by Robert Trent Jones, this tree-lined course may look easy when looking at the yardage on the scorecard, but that couldn't be further from the truth. Only 14 players finished under par in 2019 and Christiaan Bezuidenhout was the only player who finished better than -4. No one shot under par all four days that year.

LIV Andalucia Trends

Winning score
Adrian Otaegui destroyed the field last year on the DP World Tour, winning with a score of -19. Matt Fitzpatrick won the year before with a score of -6. We saw over par winning scores in 2020 (+2) and 2016 (+1). Between 2017-2019 the winning score at Valderrama was between -10 and -12.The wind plays a big part in the final score here.

Course form
Course form does tend to hold weight at Valderrama. Players such as Sergio Garcia, Soren Kjeldsen and Mike Lorenzo Vera have posted consistently high finishes. Debutants can also win here, as Andrew Johnston and Jeev Mikha Singh have shown, but players with course experience are preferred. Five of the last twelve winners at events played at Valderrama had a prior top 5 finish at the course.

Incoming form
The last twelve winners at Valderrama on the DP World Tour all had a top 10 finish in their six previous starts. Four had a top 10 in their previous start. Look for players at the top of the game for this tough test.

LIV Andalucia Stats Analysis

Summary
We will use Strokes Gained stats from the past four tournament winners of the Andalucia Masters, Arian Otaegui, Matt Fitzpatrick, John Catlin and Christiaan Bezuidenhout.

SG: Off The Tee
Adrian Otaegui ranked 33rd last year. Matt Fitzpatrick ranked 25th in 2021. The two champions prior ranked inside the top 30.

SG: Approach
Adrian Otaegui ranked 1st. Matt Fitzpatrick ranked 46th. The two previous champions also ranked between 30th and 50th so Otaegui was very much the outlier.

SG: Around The Greens
Adrian Otaegui ranked 68th but the three champions before him ranked 1st in this category. Despite Otaegui's performance, this is still the key stat this week.

SG: Tee to Green
The past four champions on the DP World Tour ranked inside the top 5 in this category.

SG: Putting
Adrian Otaegui ranked 2nd. Matt Fitzpatrick ranked 41st in this category in 2021. Catlin ranked 16th whilst Bezuidenhout ranked 1st. A hot putter certainly helps.

LIV Andalucia In Play Advice

Tough Holes
The long par four 7th hole was the toughest hole the past two years on the DP World Tour. In 2020, the 212 yard, par 3, 12th was the toughest.

Birdie Holes
The par 5 17th has played as the easiest hole the past three events on teh DP World Tour.

Fast or Slow Start
Adrian Otaegui was in sixth position (one shot off he lead) after the opening round of the Andalucia Masters played here last year on the DP World Tour. Matt Fitzpatrick was 11th after round one in 2021. The 2020 winner, John Catlin, led after the opening round. Christiaan Bezuidenhout led all the way through in 2019 and Garcia did as well in 2017. Round one leaders have a great record here.

LIV Andalucia Picks

1pt Each Way Abraham Ancer 40/1 @ Bet365 (1/4 1-5)

Ancer is our sole selection this week who doesn't have any previous course experience but his game should be perfectly suited to the tricky test at Valderrama. A 54th place finish at the US Open isn't much to write home about but he gained strokes on approach and off the tee, ranking 2nd for Driving Accuracy in the process. A winner earlier this year in Saudi Arabia, he's also a winner on the PGA Tour and can make his LIV breakthrough this week.

0.75pts Each Way Ian Poulter 66/1 @ General (1/5 1-5)

Poulter must be relishing a return to a course where he enjoyed plenty of success early in his career. When Valderrama hosted the Volvo Masters between 2002-2008, Poulter won once and only failed to crack the top 20 once. Recent form hasn't been anything to write home about but he's not disgraced himself and posted mid pack finishes on several courses that didn't suit him. He can utilise his vast course experience to good effect this week and he's expected to go close.

0.5pts Each Way Phil Mickelson 100/1 @ General (1/5 1-5)

Mickelson is one of the few Americans to have experience of Valderrama, having played the 1997 Ryder Cup here. He won his singles match that year against Darren Clarke and will relish coming back to a course where a sharp short game is extremely valuable. A 2nd place finish at the Masters has been the highlight of his year but a missed cut at the US Open was encouraging for the fact he found over 75% of fairways and gained strokes with his approach shots. He's worth a small play this week.

0.5pts Each Way Graeme McDowell 140/1 @ Bet365 (1/4 1-5)

McDowell is a course winner, having triumphed at Valderrama in 2011. The Northern Irishman hasn't been able to compete at other LIV events so far but a return to a venue where his lack of length isn't an issue is a huge positive. He came close to qualifying for the US Open when finishing 12th at qualifying last month and that's enough to take a chance on him in this week's staking plan.

0.5pts Each Way Martin Kaymer 150/1 @ Bet365 (1/4 1-5)

Finally, a play on Martin Kaymer, who finished 2nd here in 2020. Kaymer has had his injury problems since joining LIV but there have been signs of late that he's starting to find his game. Kaymer missed the cut at the US Open but gained strokes on approach and with the putter. If he can keep the ball in play off the tee he could well be a threat at big odds this week.

2023 LIV Golf Andalucia Tips

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In-play

2023 LIV Golf Andalucia In Play Blog

1st July 2023, 9.55pm (UK time)

Player	Total
DeChambeau	-9
Gooch	-8
Koepka	-6
Johnson	-4
Munoz	-3

2023 LIV Golf Andalucia Round 2 Summary

Easier conditions enabled players to go low at Valderrama, with Bryson DeChameau taking control with a round of 63.

Notable LIV Golf Andalucia Round 2 Quotes

"Yeah, it was a fantastic round. I had a lot of great things happen to me, but I also struck it really like I've been wanting to, and whenever I got nervous I was able to stripe it down the middle or hit a shot that was in the right position on the golf course. I was pretty excited about the way I played today. Putted nicely." Bryson DeChambeau

"If you look at my career, my first year on the PGA Tour I had an injury and I was out for a month. My second year on Tour I was an injury and I was out for two months. Kind of right when I got on the PGA Tour and kind of got going I was fighting some injuries a little bit early. I couldn't get into a rhythm and routine really with my game and my scheduling and just understanding how to be a professional golfer.

Finally I kind of started getting my feet under myself, and if you look at the pace of my career, I've figured out how to improve year after year, and so last year I had a handful of moments where I was in contention and had a chance to go win tournaments and I didn't get it done, and so you hope the natural progression was then you start to win tournaments, you start to get more comfortable, and that experience just yields confidence and belief.

We haven't found any pixie dust to sprinkle on my golf clubs or anything. We've just continued to work hard and trust in the process and know that if we get better each day, when we look up a year, two years, five years from now, we're going to have done some good things." Talor Gooch

2023 LIV Golf Andalucia Round 3 Weather

Sunny. Wind 13-23mph.

Back or Lay The Favourite?

Bryson DeChambeau is the 5/4 favourite but it is Talor Gooch at 2/1 who we much prefer to get the job done tomorrow. With two wins to his name already this year he has the edge over the leader, who hasn't been in contention for a while and has only it 50% of fairways so far this week.

In-Play LIV Golf Andalucia Bets We Considered

Ian Poulter is avalable at a general 6/5 to finish inside the top 10 and that made some appeal. The Englishman is currently in sixth position, ranking 2nd for driving accuracy and eleventh for greens in regulation.

Round 3 Bet

No bet

Poulter to finish top 10 was a consideration but we already have him each way from our pre-event bets and are content to cheer him on for an each way place in the final round tomorrow.

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+ - Round 2 Blog Click to collapse

30th June 2023, 10.35pm (UK time)

Player	Total
Johnson	-4
Kokrak	-4
Lahiri	-3
Smith	-2
Na	-2
Gooch	-2

2023 LIV Golf Andalucia Round 1 Summary

Blustery conditions gave players plenty to think about in the opening round at LIV Andalucia but Dustin Johnson and Jason Kokrak emerged as the early leaders. Kokrak was particularly impressive given his luggage hadn't arrived prior to teeing off and hadn't played a practice round at the course.

Notable LIV Golf Andalucia Round 1 Quotes

"I was actually on my way with my agent and my swing coach to go buy some clubs at a local store about 20 minutes away. I had irons ready. I had a putter. I had all the stuff ready. I was going to come here and the guys were going to re-shaft some of the stuff and try to dial it in for me, and I finally got my Air Tags to update, and they had moved over to Paris, and then actually I went to lunch and then we got a call at lunch that Matt Wolff's caddie's girlfriend was flying in and just happened to be on the same flight as my clubs and saw them on the luggage rack, and she called Nick, who's Matt Wolff's caddie. She was like, What do I do, and he was like, take them. Take them with you. Somebody picked her up from the airport, and that's how I got my bags. If not, I probably would have gotten my bags maybe this morning." Jason Kokrak

"Yeah, just a really solid day. Drove it really nicely, hit a lot of fairways. This golf course is one that you have to play out of the fairway from, and really just never got out of position. Just really drove it well and hit a lot of nice iron shots, controlled the ball really well, and gave myself a lot of looks at birdie." Dustin Johnson

2023 LIV Golf Andalucia Round 2 Weather

Sunny. Wind 14-24mph.

Back or Lay The Favourite?

Dustin Johnson is the 10/3 favourite and very much the man to beat in our opinion. Johnson has carried his form over from the US Open, where he finished 10th and was generally impressive in carding his opening round of 67. Round one leaders have a strong record in recent years at Valderrama and we certainly aren't laying Johnson.

In-Play LIV Golf Andalucia Bets We Considered

The 8/11 with Skybet for Cameron Tringale to finish inside the top 20 is a very tempting price if you have Skybet access. Tringale has only finished outside the top 20 once this season on LIV, finishing 22nd in the opening event in Mayakoba. He is currently in 15th position and is as short as 10/23 with Bet365 for the same bet.

Round 2 Bet

2.5pts Win Only Sergio Garcia 14/1 @ Skybet/Unibet/Bet Rivers

Garcia definitely didn't play his best in the opening round, describing it as a "grind." The fact he still managed to eek out a round of 70 is encouraging and should he start to find some form, he could well reel in the leaders over the weekend. His course record has been well documented this week and now is the time to get him onside. Sergio came close to winning his first LIV title in Singapore earlier this year but can finally get the win on his favourite course this week.

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