Preview
Course Info
Designer: Michael Blesch
Type of Course: Parkland
Used Since: 2017
Fairways: Wide
Rough: N/A
Greens: Large and undulating
Water Hazards: In-play on 17 holes
Par 5's: 9th, 11th, 15th, 16th & 18th
Premium on: Par 5 scoring and form
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
Last year's event was shortened to 3 days due to Germany's strict Covid controls. We return to the standard 4 day tournament this week.
In 2019, the event was played in September, whilst it was played in July in 2017-18. The tournament was cancelled in 2020 due to Covid.
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
Weather Forecast
A colder start to the week at 16 degrees on Thursday but will be hitting 20 degrees by the weekend.
Thursday
Sunny Intervals with a moderate breeze. Wind 14mph
Friday
Sunny Intervals with a moderate breeze. Wind 10mph
Saturday
Sunny Intervals and a gentle breeze. Wind 8mph
Sunday
Sunny Intervals and a moderate breeze. Wind 11mph
Trends
Winning score
Marcus Armitage won last year with a score of -8 over three rounds. The previous three editions have been between -11 and -14. We should expect double figures under par to be winning.
Winning Profile
Armitage was ranked 190th in the world and it was his first DP World Tour title, but he did have three top 10's already that season. Paul Casey was world number 19 before his win in 2019 and had won on the PGA Tour earlier that year. Richard McEvoy was a massive shock winner when he held off Bryson DeChambeau in 2018. Despite winning a Challenge Tour event the week before, he was only ranked 275th in the world. Jordan Smith had a terrific season on tour before his win in 2017 and was ranked 122nd pre-win. We're therefore looking for a player who is high on confidence after a good year.
Correlating Courses
The Albatross Golf Course in Czech Republic is similar in terms of being a long brute of a course.
Course form
Armitage had no course form with only a missed cut to his name previously. Casey was 7th in his previous finish here, McEvoy was 28th the year before and Smith was a debutant like most of the field. A previous good showing at the course is an advantage but not essential.
Recent form
Armitage was 8th the week before his win. Casey arrived after a 3rd at the Tour Championship. McEvoy had won on the Challenge Tour in his previous start and Smith had made his last seven cuts without placing. Recent form appears to be a very handy guide.
Nationality
All four winners at this course have been English.
Stats Analysis
We will assess the stats of the four most recent winners between 2017-21.
Driving Distance
106-24-114-4. Despite the long yardage, McEvoy and Armitage both triumphed despite being shorter hitters. None of the top 5 last year ranked inside the top 40 for driving distance.
Driving Accuracy
63-20-15-13. Driving Accuracy isn't perceived as essential but it appears to be more important than you think.
SG: Off The Tee
46-11-32-N/A. No stats are available for Smith's win in 2017 but he drove the ball beautifully. It's important to make up shots off the tee.
SG: Approach
19-1-21-N/A. Strong iron play is important.
SG: Around The Greens
10-96-45-N/A. Armitage ranked highly but this is generally not a key stat.
SG: Putting
7-30-30-N/A. Armitage ranked highly and whilst it's clearly important to put well, other stats are favoured.
In Play
Tough Holes
In 2019 and 2021, the 493 yard Par 4 10th played the toughest, averaging 4.44 in 2021. The 4th and 6th were the 2nd and 3rd toughest holes both years.
Birdie Holes
In 2019, the par 4 7th played the easiest over the four days, averaging 3.81 and it was the 2nd easiest in 2021. Three of the par 5's - 9th, 15th and 18th were the other easiest holes in 2021.
Fast or Slow Start
Last year we saw several players make up ground despite it only being a three round event. However in 2019, three of the top four were in the top 2 after day one. It's possible to play catch up.
Closing stretch
The 16th is a long par 5 measuring 705 yards, followed by a 170 yard par 3 17th. The 18th is an easy Par 5 which averaged 4.82 in 2021.
Players We Almost Backed
Thomas Detry 50/1
We backed Detry last week and a stone cold putter saw him miss the cut. He ranked 25th SG: Off The Tee, 31st SG: Approach and 3rd Greens in Regulation. He was runner up here last year and 13th in 2018, it wouldn't be a surprise to see him contend.
Henrik Stenson 50/1
Henrik isn't an obvious selection given he missed the cut here last year and has missed his last two cuts. However, he's missed those cuts on the cut mark and his last start was the PGA Championship. His approach ply has been excellent of late, he's ranked 28-10-19 SG: Approach in his last three starts on the PGA Tour. We saw him come back from the PGA Tour to Europe last summer and post a run of good results, could he be another who will benefit from the drop in class this week?
Jeff Winther 125/1
11th and 22nd in his last two starts at this event, Jeff's recent form hasn't been much to write home about. However, three decent rounds last week were offset by a terrible 78 on Saturday. Had that round been consistent with his other three rounds he's have placed inside the top 20.
In-play
Porsche European Open In-Play Blog
5 June 2022, 10:15am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Perez |
-5 |
| Lagergren |
-4 |
| Brun |
-4 |
| Li |
-3 |
| Besseling |
-3 |
| Walters |
-2 |
Round 3 Summary
Joakim Lagergren and Julian Brun both looked like leading going into the final round but both players dropped shots over their closing holes and Victor Perez now leads. Perez will now aim to win back to back events having won in the Netherlands last week.
Notable Round 3 Quotes
"It was very difficult conditions again, I thought the course played really difficult. The wind wasn’t as obvious as I would have liked, or everybody would have liked. So you’re guessing ‘is it north, is it east, is it north-east’, so it became difficult to get distance control right......Last Sunday I was really nervous. I hadn’t been in that situation with the lead. I’m very happy with the experience from last week that I can draw on and I know what I need to do – it’s a matter of execution and doing it." Victor Perez
Round 4 Weather
Warm and sunny. Wind is expected to reach 15mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Perez is 2/1 favourite and he's very much the man to beat after last week's win. As he alluded to in his post round interview, he can draw upon the experience of last week and is likely to feel less pressure than the others at the top.
Julian Brun is 4/1 2nd favourite and he's certainly a threat. Brun won twice on the Challenge Tour last year and is a player who will likely win on the DP World Tour soon. Odds of 4/1 are slightly short for us though and others would be preferred.
Where is the value?
Three of the four course winners have been leading going into the final round. However, we've seen leaders struggle this week (Jordan Smith shot 77 in Round 3) and it may well pay to back someone coming from off the pace.
Round 4 Bet
Haotong Li and Wil Besseling made appeal at 8/1 and 9/1 respectively but both have their negatives and we're not strong enough to make them official plays.
3 June 2022, 10:15pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Smith |
-6 |
| Perez |
-4 |
| Moller |
-3 |
| Lagergren |
-3 |
| Brun |
-3 |
| Li |
-2 |
| Guerrier |
-2 |
Round 2 Summary
Tricky pin positions made for a difficult test and only seven players broke 70. Jordan Smith shot an almost flawless 68, a bogey on the 3rd his only blemish of the day.
Notable Round 2 Quotes
“I have really good memories of most of the holes around here. Winning back then, even though it was five years ago, I still remember a lot of it." Jordan Smith
"I’m just trying to ride it as much as possible. I think we try to use those moments as players, when things go your way you hit shots and it feels easy, you try not to play quickly, which is not a bad thing for me, and you just get on with it." Victor Perez
Round 3 Weather
Warm and sunny. Wind isn't expected to exceed 10mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Jordan Smith is a best price of 9/4 and it's hard to build a case against him. A course winner, he has the positive memories of his win in 2017 to draw upon. He's only dropped three shots all week, managing his way around nicely. However, we've seen just how quickly shots can be frittered away on this course (yesterday's leader, Hatong Li, was +4 through his opening 4 holes) and we're in no rush to back anyone at 9/4.
Victor Perez is 2nd favourite at 6/1 and he certainly has a chance. Fresh off his win last week, he's full of confidence. He's 5th SG: Off The Tee and 10th SG: Approach so far this week, indicating just how well he is playing.
Where is the value?
Three of the four course champions have been inside the top 4 at the halfway stage. Only last year's winner, Marcus Armitage, was outside the top 4 (Armitage was 11th). However, with wind forecasted to pick up on Sunday, we're happy to chance a player further down the leaderboard.
Round 3 Bets
- 0.75pts Each Way Brandon Stone 125/1 @ Skybet (1/4 1-4)
Brandon is six shots behind the leader but he's only four shots off 2nd place and three shots off the each way places. He leads the field in SG: Approach for the opening two rounds and made seven birdies in his 2nd round. He's made seven bogeys so far this week which has held him back from contending but he has the firepower to make the each way places if he can cut out the mistakes. Four of Stone's five career wins have come after slow opening rounds (at least six shots back after the first round) and he's a player to consider when coming from behind.
- 2.5pts Richard Sterne to beat Matti Schmid 6/4 @ Betfair (3rd round 2 ball)
Richard has a stellar course record, having never finished outside the top 40 in this event. He's on track for another top 40 this week after his opening two rounds. He outscored Schmid in Round 2 and has been driving the ball better over the opening two rounds. Schmid is a player of undoubted potential but this match is a lot closer than the odds suggest and we're happy to back the experienced South African at 11/8 or better.
2 June 2022, 11:15pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Lagergren |
-5 |
| Li |
-5 |
| Besseling |
-4 |
| Pavan |
-3 |
| Perez |
-3 |
| Arnaus |
-3 |
| Guerrier |
-3 |
| Hebert |
-3 |
| Brun |
-3 |
| Huizing |
-3 |
Round 1 Summary
Joakim Lagergren is the only player from the afternoon wave in the top 10 after the opening round. A mere 21 shots separated first place and last place on the opening day, Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez shooting 88.
Notable Round 1 Quotes
"I've been playing better than my scores have shown. I had my coach down here Monday to Wednesday and had some really good sessions. It's been feeling for a long time like it's on it's way." Joakim Lagergren
"It was quite cold, chilly. The ball didn't really fly far. I didn't really have the timing today, it didn't eel great but I managed to get it round nicely." Wil Besseling
"I think I hit a lot of solid iron shots. My approaches were really good today. I had a lot of birdies on the tough holes as well. I found my rhythm compared to last week." Haotong Li
Round 2 Weather
Early fog which should clear and bring a warm and sunny day. Wind isn't expected to exceed 6ph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Haotong Li is the 17/2 favourite but we saw him struggle last weekend after occupying 2nd position at halfway. He's a proven winner on Tour but single figure odds aren't for us given his unpredictability.
Adri Arnaus is 10/1 2nd favourite and is expected to kick on over the next few days. He won for the first time on the DP World Tour last month and put in a solid performance at the US PGA Championship.
Where is the value?
The outright market is very much of interest to us with 20 players within three shots of the lead.
Round 2 Bets
- 0.5pts Each Way Andrea Pavan 80/1 @ General (1/5 1-5)
Matti Schmid was under serious consideration at 33/1 but we're prepared to see how the 2nd round plays out before potentially betting on the young German. Instead it is Andrea Pavan who catches our eye. The Italian claimed the BMW International on German soil in 2019, holding off Matt Fitzpatrick to do so. It's been a torrid few years for the Italian since then but we've seen flashes of form this year. Two good rounds last week were ruined by poor rounds on Friday and Saturday and that's been the story for much of the season. We're obviously taking a chance on him being able to put four rounds together this week but the 80/1 available is worth the risk.
