Starts: 5th June 2021
Course: Green Eagle GC
Par: 72 (34-38)
Length: 7,544 yards
2020 Champion: N/A
Overall Profit/Loss: -13.5pts
Pre-Event Bets: -6.5pts
1pt EW Kurt Kitayama 40/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-7)
0.75pts EW Daniel von Tonder 66/1 @ Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
0.5pts EW Julien Guerrier 90/1 @ William Hill (1/5 1-6)
0.5pts EW Min Woo Lee 100/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-6)
0.5pts EW Connor Syme 100/1 @ Betfred (1/5 1-6)
In-Play Bets: -7pts
5 June 2021 (-3pts)
1pt EW Benjamin Hebert @ William Hill(1/5 1-5)
0.5pts EW Clement Sordet 150/1 @ William Hill(1/5 1-5)
6 June 2021 (-4pts)
2pts Eduardo Molinari Win Only 11/1 @ William Hill
2pts Callum Hill Top 10 Finish 4/1 @ Skybet
Designer: Michael Blesch
Type of Course: Parkland
Used Since: 2017
Greens: Large, Undulating usually run around 10.6 on stimp
Water Hazards: In-play on 17 holes
Par 5's: 9th, 11th, 15th, 16th and 18th
Premium on: Bombers
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
This year's event is shortened to 3 days and starts on Saturday to allow players to arrive on time, due to Germany's strict Covid controls.
Players with no previous experience here may be at a disadvantage with limited practice rounds.
In 2019, the event was played in September, whilst it was played in July in 2017-18. The tournament was cancelled in 2020 due to Covid.
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
A potential for showers over the weekend and potential thunder on Saturday. Approx. 20 degrees celsius with moderate winds.
Thundery showers and a gentle breeze. Wind 4-8mph
Light rain showers and a gentle breeze Wind 4-9mph
Sunny intervals with gentle breeze. Wind 5-10mph
The last three editions have been between -11 and -14. Although it is only three rounds this time, we should expect a figure in double figures to be winning.
Paul Casey was world number 19 before his win in 2019 and had won on the PGA Tour earlier that year. Richard McEvoy was a massive shock winner when he held off DeChambeau in 2018. Despite winning a Challenge Tour event the week before, he was only ranked 275th in the world. Jordan Smith had a terrific season on tour before his win in 2017 and was ranked 122nd pre-win. We're therefore looking for a player who is high on confidence after a good year.
The Albatross Golf Course in Czech Republic is similar in terms of being a long brute of a course.
Casey was 7th in his previous finish here, McEvoy was 28th the year before and Smith was a debutant like most of the field. A previous good showing at the course is an advantage.
Casey arrived after a 3rd at the Tour Championship. McEvoy had won on the Challenge Tour in his previous start and Smith had made his last seven cuts without placing. Recent form appears to be a very handy guide.
All three winners at this course have been English.
We will assess the stats of the three most recent winners between 2017-19.
24-114-4. Despite McEvoy being a short hitter, most who prevail here can hit it long.
20-15-13. Driving Accuracy isn't perceived as essential but it appears to be more important than you think.
SG: Off the tee
11-32-N/A. No stats are available for Smith's win in 2017 but he drove the ball beautifully. It's important to make up shots off the tee.
1-21-N/A. Strong iron play is important.
SG: Around the greens
96-45-N/A. Not a key stat.
30-30-N/A. As always it helps to put well, however, other stats are favoured.
In 2019, the 493 yard Par 4 10th played the toughest, averaging 4.44. The 2nd to the 6th were five of the toughest nine holes. In particular, the 4th and 6th played toughest apart from the 10th.
In 2019, the par 4 7th played the easiest over the four days, averaging 3.81. Three of the par 5's - 9th, 11th and 15th were the next easiest.
Fast or Slow Start
Players will need a fast start as it is only three rounds. Three of the top four were in the top 2 after day one in 2019. High importance to start fast this week.
The 16th is a brute of a par 5 measuring 663 yards, followed by a 170 yard par 3 17th. The 18th is an easy Par 5 which averaged 4.9 in 2019.
Porsche European Open In-Play Blog
6th June 2021, 8pm
Maverick Antclliff birdied his last three holes to join Matthew Southgate on 5 under and they will take a one shot lead over four players for the final round tomorrow. Both are in search of their first European Tour victory.
Southgate has finished second twice, one of which at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in 2019 when he let slip a really good opportunity to win on the back nine. He mentioned in his interview that he’s hoping to make his experience count but we have our doubts. That memory may give him negative energy.
Antcliff has less scar tissue but did pass up an opportunity to win in Ireland last year. He won three times in China in 2019 so he’s not afraid to get the job done and out of the two he is preferred.
The three day event has had a strange feel about it all weekend and it would come as no surprise to see someone win from off the pace tomorrow. 31 players are within five shots of the lead and Eduardo Molinari showed what’s out there with a 7 under par 65 today.
The weather forecast shows some light rain in the morning and minimal winds.
Round 3 Bets
- 2pts Win Only Eduardo Molinari 11/1 @ Bet365
Eduardo is a three time winner on tour with nine worldwide in total. He is a confidence player and will be buoyed by his 65 today to leave him one off the lead. He let slip a chance to win the Betfred Masters a few weeks ago and we’re happy to put that down to contention rust. The recent feeling of contending is a big plus in our eyes and we expect him to challenge the leaders.
- 2pts Callum Hill Top 10 finish 4/1 @ Skybet
Only Matthias Schwab has more top 10's than Hill this year, with the Scotsman bagging 4 in 11 starts. He is currently two shots off 9th place but we've seen lots of movement on the leaderboard and we can expect him to finish strongly after a 68 yesterday. The standard of the players above him isn't particularly great so this could be a classic European Tour final round full of dropped shots - and Hill can take advantage.
5th June 2021, 10.20pm
We’re underway in Germany and despite a stoppage in play due to a threat of thunder, the field has managed to complete the first round of three.
Thomas Detry is the man who leads the way after seven birdies in his last 9 holes (playing the front 9) and is now regarded as the man to beat. The Belgian is still looking for his maiden European Tour win and although he’s picked a good week to get off to a flyer, we’re still keen to take him on.
The wind won’t be much of an issue tomorrow, however, heavy rain showers are expected late afternoon which might make life difficult for the later starters. It was noticeable that the early starters fared better yesterday so we will take that angle heading into round two.
Round 2 Bets
- 1pt Each Way Benjamin Hebert 40/1 @ William Hill (1/5 1-5)
Benjamin is a six time winner on the Challenge Tour and four time runner up on the European Tour. He's off to a good start this week, having posted a 2 under par 70 in his opening round. He's a player who has lost his way a little in 2021 but he's capable of a big finish this week. He should avoid the heavy rain that the afternoon starters are forecast to play in too.
- 0.5pts Each Way Clement Sordet 150/1 @ William Hill (1/5 1-5)
We are putting up a second Frenchman in Clement Sordet. Sordet was 3 over par for his opening nine holes but four birdies in his final nine holes were enough to see him post a first round 71. A four time winner on the Challenge Tour and a runner up on the European Tour, he's capable of making the breakthrough on the European Tour. With a morning tee time we expect to see him progress up the leaderboard tomorrow.