Preview
Event Info
Starts: 24th November 2022
Course: Royal Queensland Golf Course, Brisbane.
Par: 71 (36-35)
Length: 7,134 yards
2021 Champion: Jediah Morgan
Course Info
Designer: Mike Clayton
Type: Australian Links
Par 5's: 7th, 9th and 15th
Hosted Since: 2021
Weather Forecast
Thurs: Light rain and a gentle breeze. Max wind 6mph.
Fri: Sunny. Max wind 6mph.
Sat: Sunny. Max wind 7mph.
Sun: Thundery Showers and light winds. Max wind 6mph.
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
- This event was not played on the DP World Tour in 2021. The event was played on the Australian Tour, where Royal Queensland hosted for the first time.
- The event was played in January 2022 instead of December.
Trends
Winning score
Jediah Morgan won on 22 under par but is worth noting 2nd place was only 11 under par!
Recent form
Morgan was playing his first event of the calendar year but had no form at the end of 2021 with figures of MC-T84. Runner-up Dodt was 10th in his previous start.
Stats Analysis
No stats were recorded for the Australian PGA last year.
In Play
Fast or Slow Start
As you would expect with an 11 stroke win, Jed Morgan was 2nd after round one and dominated from halfway onwards.
Course Quotes
“Royal Queensland already compares favourably with some of the British Championship courses. It should have a very great future, and will be an excellent test of golf." Course Website
“I’m a fan of the Royal Queensland layout, I think it fits my eye, and I hope and expect to play well there this year.” Min Woo Lee, 2022
“I wanted to just make the cut this week. I know that’s a low shot to shoot out, but I felt a lot of pressure, especially being a member here and having won the Australian Amateur (title) here.” Jediah Morgan, 2022
Players We Almost Backed
NOTE - These are players who we shortlisted for this event but ultimately didn't advise to subscribers.
Jack Thompson 125/1
Last man off the shortlist this week. A player who only turned pro in 2021, he already has a win on the Australian Tour and has placed inside the top 15 in his last 2 starts. He finished 12th in this event last year but price is a fraction short.
Nick Voke 250/1
Turned pro in 2018 and won 3 times in China in quick succession. Has had mixed results on the Korn Ferry Tour in recent years but a 12th place finish last week was eye catching for the fact it contained a round of 82!
Elvis Smylie 400/1
A youngster with enormous potential and a good record at this course. However, form has been poor for much of 2022 and may have dented his confidence.
In-play
2022 Fortinet Australian PGA Championship In-Play Blog
26th November 2022, 10:55am (UK time)
Player | Total |
Smith |
-11 |
Liu |
-8 |
Kawamura |
-8 |
Four players tied |
-7 |
Round 3 Summary
As we suggested in yesterday's blog, Cameron Smith has taken control at the top at the Australian PGA Championship. Our 200/1 pre-event play, Jake McLeod, played himself into 4th place whilst winning our 5/2 lean for his 3-ball. Halfway leader Jason Scrivener could only manage a 74 and is four back alongside McLeod.
Round 4 Weather
Thundery showers and light winds. Wind 6mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Cameron Smith is one of the best front runners in the game and given the lack of quality of the chasers, it's hard to see him being caught in the final round. He has closed out his last four events when leading after 54 holes, most recently at the Tournament of Champions back in January. He has also won the Players Championship and British Open from behind since then. Odds of 4/11 look more than fair if you want to include them in a parlay with a match in the World Cup!
Min Woo Lee is next in the betting at 14/1 and is four back. We shouldn't forget Lee won the 2021 Scottish Open with a final round 64 to beat the likes of Matt Fitzpatrick and Thomas Detry and if you wanted an optimistic bet to catch Smith, he looks most likely.
Kawamura is next at 16/1 but he is winless on the DP Tour and hasn't been particularly impressive when in contention either.
Where is the value?
Min Woo Lee Top 5 finish at 10/11 (Skybet) looks of interest. We also have a three ball bet that is of interest.
Round 4 Bet
- 2pts Todd Sinnott to beat John Lyras and Alejandro Canizares 7/4 @ Boylesports
Sinnott has outscored his playing partners in two of three rounds so far this week. John Lyras is considered the outsider of the three ball and that's understandable given he stated this course doesn't particularly suit his eye and has regressed since his opening round. Alejandro Canizares is capable of a good score but he's inconsistent and siding with Sinnott at 17/10 or better is the bet.
25th November 2022, 12:05pm (UK time)
Player | Total |
Scrivener |
-10 |
Smith |
-9 |
Kawamura |
-8 |
John |
-8 |
Five players tied |
-7 |
Round 2 Summary
Jason Scrivener shot a bogey free round of 67 to open up a one stroke lead at the top of the leaderboard.
Round 3 Weather
Sunny. Wind 5-8 mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Cameron Smith is the even money favourite and he's the man we expect to win this event. Having got off to a slow start in round one, the Open Champion is ten under par for last 27 holes and he looks poised to assume control over the weekend.
Jason Scrivener is 2nd favourite at 9/2 but he makes little appeal given
Where is the value?
Jake McLeod looks like a bit of value in the 3rd round 3 ball market. He's available at 5/2 with Skybet to beat Maverick Antcliff and Ryo Hisatsune. He's not an official play but those of you looking for a accumulator/parlay may wish to include him in that.
Round 3 Bets
We considered a bet on Cameron Smith at evens in the outright market but with two pre-event selections in the top 10 (Anthony Quayle and Jake McLeod), we're happy to let the third round play out and consider our position tomorrow.
24th November 2022, 12:05pm (UK time)
Player | Total |
Lyras |
-6 |
Scrivener |
-6 |
Lee |
-6 |
Five players tied |
-5 |
Round 1 Summary
Min Woo Lee, Jason Scrivener and John Lyras took advantage of some favourable afternoon conditions to post rounds of 65 and set the early pace.
Notable Round 1 Quotes
"It was awesome. Very solid. One mistake, a bad drive on the tenth, but other than that it was a very solid day approach-wise and off the tee and a very good day on the greens." Min Woo Lee
"I played smart, picked my chances today to be aggressive and then others I was quite conservative. I’ve got to kind of rely on my iron play and controlling my irons really well into the greens." Jason Scrivener
Round 2 Weather
Sunny. Wind 5-6 mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Cameron Smith and Min Woo Lee share favouritism at 4/1. We like the chances of both players and it's hard to build a case against them. Smith had four birdies in his back nine to haul himself back into contention and he's going to be difficult to beat should he continue that level of play.
Adam Scott is tucked in behind at 5/1. His 66 was the best score of the morning starters and he can't be discounted either.
Where is the value?
Min Woo Lee, Adam Scott and Cameron Smith are undoubtedly a threat but there are two prices we can't ignore.
Round 2 Bets
- 1pt Each Way Marc Leishman 40/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-5)
Leishman opened with a round of 69 but that was a solid effort considering he was one over par through his opening eight holes. Leishman said earlier in the week he was "fine" about the possibility of not playing Majors next year as his world ranking continues to drop after joining LIV Golf. However, a win this week would go a long way to helping him play in those big events next year and it's hard to think that won't be a motivating factor. Only four shots off the lead with a morning tee time, he's a nice price.
- 0.5pts Each Way Todd Sinnott 200/1 @ William Hill (1/4 1-4)
Sinnott was one of our pre-event selections and we can't resist a top up after a solid start to the tournament. Looking at his career record, five of his ten best career performances have come in this calendar year and that's no surprise given he turned 30 earlier this year. He's been playing nicely the past few weeks and he's a solid each way option. Take the 175/1 with Bet365 if you can't get on with William Hill.