Event Info
Starts - 29th October 2020
Course - PGA National Cyprus Course
Par - 71 (36-35)
Length – 6,956 yards
Defending Champion- N/A
Results
Overall Profit/Loss: +15pts
Pre-Event Six to Watch
T21st Antoine Rozner - 35/1 @ Betfred
T41st Joachim Lagergren - 45/1 @ Betfred
T66th Nicolas Colsaerts - 45/1 @ 888Sport
T53rd Jorge Campillo - 60/1 @ Skybet
MC Adrian Meronk - 80/1 @ Betfred
MC Garrick Porteous - 175/1 @ Betfred
In-Play Bets: +15pts
29 October 2020 ( -6 Points)
1pt Each Way Gonzalo-Fernandez Castano (1/4 1,2,3,4,5) - 66/1 @ 888Sport
0.5pts Each Way Oliver Wilson (1/4 1,2,3,4,5) - 200/1 @ 888Sport
1pt Oliver Wilson Top 10 Finish - 16/1 @ 888Sport
0.5pts Each Way Alvaro Quiros (1/4 1,2,3,4,5) - 250/1 @ 888Sport
1pt Alvaro Quiros Top 10 Finish - 18/1 @ Betway
30 October 2020 ( -4 Points)
1pt Each Way Shubhankar Sharma (1/4 1,2,3,4) - 18/1 @ Bet365
1pt Each Way David Drysdale (1/4 1,2,3,4) - 40/1 @ Bet365
31 October 2020 ( +25 Points)
1pt Each Way Callum Shinkwin (1/4 1,2,3,4) - 20/1 @ Skybet
Preview
Course Info
Type of Course - Coastal, Resort, Birdie Fest
Course Designer - Cabell Robinson
Course Links -Been described as a similar test to Vilamoura which hosts Portugal Masters. Robinson also designed Valderrama
Fairways - Wide, Bermuda
Greens - Large, Bentgrass
Par 5's - 3rd, 6th, 10th and 18th
Hosted Since - Debut
Weather Forecast
Summary
Sunny all four days. Temperatures expected to reach 27 degrees, with winds ranging from 5mph in the mornings to 10mph in the afternoon.
Thurs - Sunny and gentle breeze
Fri - Sunny intervals and gentle breeze
Sat - Sunny and a moderate breeze
Sun - Sunny intervals and gentle breeze
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals. Last week saw JB Hansen withdraw after Round 3 when his caddy tested positive.
The temperatures in Cyprus this week will be a big change from recent weeks and will favour players who prefer warmer conditions.
The course is set up for tourists primarily. Under 7,000 yards, wide fairways, large greens and moderate winds should see a low winning score, around 23 under par.
Trends
With no previous events here, we have no trends analysis.
Stats Analysis
Summary
With no previous events here, we have no statistics to analyse.
In Play
Tough Holes
Slim pickings! The 627 yard par 5 3rd hole may prove tougher than your average Par 5. Several par 3s are also worth noting, the 236 yard 15th and the 7th hole which plays over a ravine. 16th is stroke index 2.
Birdie Holes
The short par 4s (8th and 14th) will offer longer hitters a short pitch in and three of the par 5s are reachable in two - 6th, 10th and 18th
Fast or Slow Start
With no previous course form to draw on, no analysis on whether a player can play catch up.
Six To Watch
As outlined in our Tipping Record, our strategy is to focus on speciality bets and value in-play. However, we have identified the following six players if you do wish to place a bet before the event begins:
Antoine Rozner - 35/1 @ Betfred
Sami Valimaki and Sean Crocker narrowly miss out this week, mainly due to missing the early value, but we feel there is still enough juice in the Frenchman's price despite also shortening. Antoine fired a final round 65 last week en route to 10th place and stats show his long game was in great shape, finishing 5th SG: Tee to green and 6th SG: Approach. He clearly didn't have a great week on the greens but in general he is a good putter - he ranks 37th SG: Putts per GIR for the season. Finishes of 3rd at Valderrama, 10th in Oman and 2nd in Mauritius show he likes warm weather golf and form figures of 2-2-47-1-1 on the lesser tours in 2019 show exactly how much talent he has.
Joachim Lagergren - 45/1 @ Betfred
Coastal, wind exposed, resort - the first name that sprung to mind this week was the Swede. He delivered for GBC with an each way 3rd at the Portugal Masters, won in Sicily on the coast, and has several good results in wind exposed venues all over the world. We've seen the importance of putting in the last two weeks with Ross McGowan and Adrian Otaegui holing everything. Putts Per GIR may be the key stat in what should be a birdie fest. Lagergren ranks 12th for the season and was 13th in this category in his last start at Wentworth.
Nicolas Colsaerts - 45/1 @ 888Sport
Infuriatingly, the Belgian was shortlisted but left off the GBC in-play tipping service after 36 holes in Italy but we won't make the same mistake this week. Nicolas ranked 4th for SG: Approach, 11th for SG: Tee to green and 2nd for Putts Per GIR showing all aspects of his game were in fine 'Nic'. He is a dangerous player when the putter is working and we expect him to improve on his ranking of 24th for birdies this season. He won the Open De France last year, so there are no doubts that he could get over the line if in contention.
Jorge Campillo - 60/1 @ Skybet
The return to high temperatures led us to the Spaniard who saves his best golf for the sun. He boasts recent finishes of 8th in Portugal, 17th at Valderrama and a win in Qatar. He also won in Morocco and posted top 3's in India, China, Qatar and Oman in 2019. He finished 48th place last week but a closer inspection shows he ranked 20th SG: Tee to Green and 16th SG: Approach the Green, so his game is in fine fettle.
Adrian Meronk - 80/1 @ Betfred
The Pole continues to impress in his maiden season on the European Tour with form figures of 36-10-51-22 in his last four starts and a forgiving course like this may enable him to make that extra leap. Adrian ranks 143rd for driving accuracy which has probably held him back so far. What's interesting is he finished 12th SG: Tee to green last week and the week before in Scotland he finished 2nd SG: Putting. If he can piece the two together he should go well. Finally, he won at a resort course in Portugal in September last year which bodes well for this test.
Garrick Porteous - 175/1 @ Betfred
We were very close to keeping faith in Gonzalo Fernandez Castano for the final pick but are happy to take a punt on Garrick riding the wave of his best ever European Tour finish at the Scottish Championship two weeks ago. The Englishman is a long hitter off the tee and a fine putter, ranking inside the top 30 for SG: Off the tee and SG: Putting. This could be the perfect combination for a resort course which will demand aggressive golf. He ranks 49th for birdies this season so is capable of low numbers.
In-play
In-Play Blog
31st October 2020
-14 Donaldson
-13 Armitage
-13 Valimaki
-13 Drysdale
-13 Detry
-13 Samooja
Jamie Donaldson retains his lead despite missing two putts inside a couple of feet on Saturday but it remains extremely tough to call the winner as 15 players are within three shots.
Aphrodite Hills has been a massive success with players full of praise for the course. Matthias Schwab showed just how quick things can change when he took a two shot lead after 12 holes, only to play his last 6 in +3.
It is reasonable to assume tomorrow will be much of the same, and in typical European Tour fashion, we can probably expect lots of volatility in prices throughout the round. If you use Betfair Exchange a profitable tactic may be to lay anyone who trades low throughout the day.
Our halfway selections David Drysdale and Shubhankar Sharma are still right in this, but we are going to add one final play based on how he has performed so far this week.
1pt Each Way Callum Shinkwin (1/4 1,2,3,4) - 20/1 @ Skybet
Callum sits two shots off the lead after he eagled the last, which should give him good momentum for tomorrow. He heads the field for birdies and also ranks 2nd for SG: Putting. Given tomorrow is looking like being a shootout, that could be exactly what is needed. He has also ranked in the top 20 for GIR for the last two rounds, so all aspects of his game are in good shape. Yet to win on tour, Callum should have really won the Scottish Open a few years ago but he has appeared relaxed in his on-course interviews and can go one better if he gets off to a hot start.
30th October 2020
-11 Armitage (thru 15)
-11 Donaldson (thru 17)
-10 Valimaki
-10 McEvoy
-10 Drysdale
Round 2 was unable to be completed, and as it happened the joint leaders were two of a handful of players who didn't get finished. Marcus Armitage, who holed his approach shot on his 1st hole, is now favourite at 13/2 which seems short given the chasing pack.
Sami Valimaki is next in the betting and he looked for all the world like he would be leading but played his last 7 holes in +2 following a double bogey on 12. Jamie Donaldson and Thomas Detry are the two others in single figures but there are enough doubts about their ability getting over the line for us not to back them at those prices.
Plenty of European Tour winners lurk further back, including well fancied Andy Sullivan and Matthias Schwab. There are 39 players within 5 shots so there could be a lot of movement on the leaderboard tomorrow, especially since the wind will be down for the first couple of hours before reaching 13mph for the leaders teeing off.
There should be plenty of opportunity to catch 'movers ' mid-round, but we have selected two players we feel are the value at halfway.
1pt Each Way Shubhankar Sharma (1/4 1,2,3,4) - 18/1 @ Bet365
1pt Each Way David Drysdale (1/4 1,2,3,4) - 40/1 @ Bet365
The Indian is enjoying a return to form and sits 2 shots back. He has a good combination of stats so far, 13th for SG: Putting and 21st for SG: Tee to green. There were also many positives to take from his post round interview. Firstly he is motivated, playing to get into the season finale in Dubai, and secondly he feels his iron play is returning to how it was in his winning days. He's holing putts from inside 10 feet and shouldhe continue to do so, he may be back in the winner's circle.
David sits one shot off the lead, partly due to a bogey on his final hole, which admittedly he played all wrong. However, he produced some great golf for 17 holes and appears comfortable. The stats show his iron play is the best in field so far (1st SG: Approach) and he is also 12th for SG: Putting. He commented on Thursday that the heat helps his back and swing which maybe explains his 2nd place finish to Jorge Campillo at the Qatar Open in March. He did nothing wrong in the mix then and was only beaten by a putting masterclass from the Spaniard, so will be confident he can do it this weekend also.
29th October 2020
-7 Veerman
-7 Waite
-6 Donaldson
-6 Sullivan
-6 Valimaki
-6 Stalter
-6 Drysdale
We currently have a congested leaderboard with 17 players within two shots of the lead. Pre-tournament favourite Andy Sullivan still heads the betting at 11/2 and is closely followed by playing partner Sami Valimaki at best odds of 10/1.
With early tee times tomorrow, the pair should be the ones to set the halfway target. However, Johannes Veerman may have something to say about that following his superb opening round 64 which could have been much lower. He ranked 4th for SG: Off the tee and 5th SG: Approach and it was only 30 putts which stopped it from threatening the 59 mark.
Frustratingly, he has been on our six to watch column several times this summer but others were preferred this week. It would not be a surprise to see him follow fellow American John Catlin into the winners circle and if you want some interest at the head of the market, he is a decent play at 14/1.
The wind is ever so slightly up in the afternoon tomorrow but not enough to cause too much trouble. In the expectation that the market leaders will kick on tomorrow, we are going to play three outsiders further down the leaderboard who have potential each way and top 10 value.
It should be noted that the early starters on Saturday morning look set to play in significantly lighter winds, so there should be potential value on moving day.
1pt Each Way Gonzalo-Fernandez Castano (1/4 1,2,3,4,5) - 66/1 @ 888Sport
0.5pts Each Way Oliver Wilson (1/4 1,2,3,4,5) - 200/1 @ 888Sport
1pt Oliver Wilson Top 10 Finish - 16/1 @ 888Sport
0.5pts Each Way Alvaro Quiros (1/4 1,2,3,4,5) - 250/1 @ 888Sport
1pt Alvaro Quiros Top 10 Finish - 18/1 @ Betway
We put up the Spaniard for the Six To Watch in Italy but he narrowly missed out this week and we are happy to get onboard at 66/1. Last week we wrote, "Gonzo has been playing consistent golf recently without doing enough to be noticed (four made cuts in a row). Finishes of 33rd last week in Scotland and 14th in Portugal show he isn't far off and a return to warmer temperatures in Italy should suit". He finished 39th for us in Italy but has put himself in prime position this week in even warmer conditions, -5 through 17, playing the par 5 18th. Even with a par at the last, 66/1 is more than fair and we like his chances for the rest of the week.
Oliver appeared on our radar after the BMW Championship where he was 1st for SG: Approach despite a missed cut. The driver was the problem that week, but there were signs of improvement in that department in Scotland and his first round here. He has struggled so far this year, however, 43rd in Scotland shows he may be on the comeback. Let's not forget, Oliver is a European Tour winner who will take inspiration from Ross McGowan's win last week, He racked up finishes of 2nd, 4th and 8th on the European Tour in 2019 so he's more than capable of winning again.
The Spaniard had an awful UK swing, however, he clearly likes the warmer climates as has started nicely here, and posted finishes of 17th in Spain and 44th in Portugal in September. Like Wilson, he had strong results in 2019 also, posting a 2nd place and two 3rd places. The test this week requires aggressive which suits Alvaro and he is also worth a small play.