Event Info

Starts: 6th May 2021
Course: Golf Costa Adeje, Tenerife
Par: 71 (35-36)
Length: 6,857 yards
2020 Champion: N/A

Results

Overall Profit/Loss: -7pts

Pre-Event Bets: -1pt

0.75ps EW Louis De Jager 50/1 @ Betvictor (1/5 1-6)
0.75pts EW Matthew Jordan 60/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-7)
0.75pts EW Joakim Lagergren 80/1 @ Betvictor (1/5 1-6)
0.5pts EW Jorge Campillo 125/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-7)
0.25pts EW Alejandro Tosti 150/1 @ Ladbrokes (1/5 1-7)
0.25pts EW Yikeun Chang 150/1 @ Ladbrokes (1/5 1-7)
1pt Eduard Rousad Top 20 Finish 6/1 @ William Hill
1pt Robin Sciot-Siegrist Top 20 Finish 13/2 @ Betfair/Paddy Power

In-Play Bets: -6pts

6 May 2021 (-2.5pts)
0.75pts EW Jorge Campillo  - 80/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-5)
0.5pts 
EW Oliver Fisher  - 300/1 @ Betfred (1/5 1-5)

7 May 2021 (-3.5pts)
0.75pts EW Robin Sciot-Siegrist  - 66/1 @ Skybet (1/4 1-4)
2pts Robin Sciot-Siegrist to beat Niall Kearney and Richard Mansell  -15/8 @ BetVictor


Preview

Course Info

Designer: Jose Gancedo
Type of Course: Resort
Used Since: N/A
Fairways: Paspalum
Greens: TifEagle Bermuda
Par 5's: 1st, 3rd, 11th, 13th & 18th
Premium on: Putting

Significant Info To Be Aware Of

This course has six par 3s and five par 5s.

The course wwas used last week for the Tenerife Open.

Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.

Weather Forecast

Thursday
Sunny and a moderate breeze. Max winds 15mph.
Friday
Sunny and a gentle breeze. Max winds 9mph.
Saturday
Sunny intervals and a light breeze of 7mph.
Sunday
Sunny intervals and fresh breeze of 11mph.

Trends

Winning score
This course was used last week and we saw a winning score of -25.  A low score was also recorded in 2003 when the European Tour last visited (-22).  We should expect another winning score of 20 under par or better.

Winning Profile
Kenneth Ferrie won when the course hosted the Canarias Open de Espana in 2003, winning his first title on the European Tour.  Ferrie was 25 at the time of his win and had won several events on the Challenge Tour.

Last week we saw Dean Burmester triumph.  Burmester was 31 and and winning for the second time on the European Tour.

Correlating Courses 
Course designer Jose Gancedo has designed several courses in Spain but none provide much assistance.  However, it is worth noting four South Africans finished in the top 17 last week.  Garrick Higgo was quoted last week as saying, "it’s similar grass (to Gran Canaria), although this is a bit more similar to what we play on back home (in South Africa)."

Course form
Only a handful of players did not play last week so players will know what to expect.

Recent form
Kenneth Ferrie finished 16th at the Open de Portugal the week before he won here in 2003.  Of the other four players who finished in the top 5 in 2003, only Brian Davis (2nd week before) had displayed any form in the Open de Portugal.

Dean Burmester hadn't shown any recent form prior to his win, his best finish in his last three starts being 38th.

Stats Analysis

Last week we saw players with strong tee to green stats dominate at the top of the leaderboard.  The first three players all ranked in the top 3 for SG: Tee To Green.  Surprisingly, none of the top 5 ranked inside the top 10 for SG: Putting.

Stats aren't available from 2003 but the first five men home were largely renowned for their accuracy off the tee.

In Play

In 2003, Kenneth Ferrie jointly led after round 3 and a final round 69 was enough to take the title.  

Last week, Burmester began the final round one shot behind the leaders and won convincingly.

 

Pre-Event Tips

You can subscribe for our pre-event tips for the remainder of 2021 for £199. You can sign up by clicking the button below.

 

Inplay

Canary Islands Championship In-Play Blog

8th May 2021, 7.30pm

PlayerTotal
Higgo -20
Mansell -18
Hill -17
Pulkkanen -15
Antcliff -15
Johnston -15

As expected, Garrick Higgo outplayed overnight leader Adri Arnaus and now leads by two shots over world number 311 Richard Mansell. Callum Hill is one shot further back and a group of three five back have it all to do to chase down the in-form South African.

It really is hard to see Higgo losing it from here and if he does, it will probably have to be from an exceptional round from the chasers. Bookmakers rate him best odds of 4/6 to finish the job and given his emphatic final round performance in Gran Canaria, that seems about right.

In Mansell’s relatively short career to date, he has had an amazing SEVEN runners up finishes on the smaller tours, as opposed to only one win. He looks likely to achieve the same result here if he can fend off Callum Hill.

Hill might just be the biggest danger to the leader as we know he can go low. He has already shot three 65’s and a 64 this season, which could potentially pose a question.

We won’t be opposing Higgo though, even with some tempting odds available. Our pre-event subscribers have plenty of interest with Robin Sciot-Siegrist (6th) and Eduard Rousaud (18th) chasing top 20 places at juicy odds. We’re also hopeful 50/1 outright play Louis De Jager (9th) can finish fast for a place.


Round 4 Bets

 

  • No further bets

 

7th May 2021, 9.30pm

PlayerTotal
Arnaus -14
Higgo -13
Laporta -12
Ramsay -12
Syme -12
Hill -12

Adri Arnaus played his last seven holes in six under par to shoot another 64 and leads by one shot over Gran Canaria winner Garrick Higgo. They are now considered joint favourites at 7/2.

If backing favourites is your style, we would much prefer Higgo from here due to his clinical closing in Portugal and Gran Canaria. Arnaus has been iffy in contention so far and we could not back with confidence. Both rank in the top three for strokes gained putting so there are others playing better tee to green.

Dean Burmester, Callum Hill and Connor Syme are all regarded as genuine threats from two and three shots back and given the shootout nature we can expect, all three could be leading going into the final round.

The top five in the market were all well fancied before the off so it is hard to see past them at this stage. We have identified one player who could cause a surprise tomorrow.


Round 3 Bets

  • 0.75pts Each Way Robin Sciot Siegrist 66/1 @ Skybet (1/4 1-4)


Robin was advised to our subscribers as a 13/2 play for a top 20 finish and we think he’s playing well enough to at least enter the places. The Frenchman ranks 1st tee to green this week and it’s no fluke – he finished 3rd in Austria and Australia last year. He is setting up countless birdie opportunities and the putter should be expected to heat up either tomorrow or Sunday. Take a punt on Robin at anything better than 60/1.

  • 2pts Robin Sciot Siegrist to beat Richard Mansell and Niall Kearney 15/8 @ BetVictor


Following on the above, Robin is too big a price to win this 3-ball. Mansell is his closest threat but Niall Kearney is ranked 965th in the world and should be feeling a lot of pressure tomorrow.  It could quite easily turn into a head to head and we think Siegrist's tee to green game along with previous top 5's on tour give him the edge.




6th May 2021, 8.30pm

PlayerTotal
Laporta -9
Fernandez -8
Stalter -7
Arnaus -7
Garcia-Heredia -7

Another day of low scoring at Golf Costa Adeje saw Francesco Laporta one shot clear at the top of the leaderboard.  Ninety-two players broke par in the opening round and those shooting over par will need something special tomorrow to make the weekend.

Laporta has history of winning wire to wire, having won the 2019 Challenge Tour Grand Final when leading the whole way.  That win was one of two for Laporta on the Challenge Tour that season and we shouldn't dismiss him too readily.  Odds of 12/1 are slightly too short for us to play after round one but it certainly wouldn't be a surprise to see him follow up with a good round tomorrow.

The bookmakers make only one player single figure odds and that is Adri Arnaus after his opening 64.  Arnaus got off to a strong start last week as well, shooting 65.  An 8th place finish was a solid effort but he's yet to win on the European Tour and his record in contention isn't convincing enough to warrant a bet at those odds.

Last week's winner, Dean Burmester, was 2nd after the opening round.  The week before in Gran Canaria, another low scoring event, Garrick Higgo was 2 shots off the pace after the first round.  Given the easy conditions we aren't looking too far down the leaderboard as the leaders are likely to kick on.

Scoring should continue to be low tomorrow as no rain is forecast and the wind is expected to peak at around 12mph.


Round 2 Bets

  • 0.75pts Each Way Jorge Campillo 80/1 @ Bet365 (1/5 1-5)

Jorge was one of our pre-event tips and we're happy to top up given his proven ability when in contention.  Two wins in his last 46 starts is a far better conversion rate than most in this field and we were surprised to see his price so high after a solid opening round.  We can't pass up the 80/1 despite already being on.

  • 0.5pts Each Way Oliver Fisher 300/1 @ Betfred (1/5 1-5)

Oliver was on our shortlist pre-event and narrowly missed out due to the fact his driving was awful on day one last week.  It was a similar story today but a hot putter allowed him to make a score.  He's previously shot 59 on the European Tour and there have been signs his game has been turning a corner in recent weeks.  At 300/1 we are happy to get involved for small stakes.