PGA Tour In-Play Tips
Sony Open in Hawaii
17 January 12.00
-18 Steele
-16 Na
-16 Niemann
-15 Henley
-15 Kirk
-15 Cink
-15 Hoffman
-15 Malnati
Those of you who wanted to forget 2020 will be having trouble this morning. Last year's third round leader, Brendan Steele, leads again at the same stage and enters the final round as 7/2 favourite. He's a longer price than 2020, but that reflects the fact he has a two shot lead (he had three in 2020) and the chasing pack is much larger.
In 2020, there were only 2 players within four shots of Brendan. This year there are 11 within four shots. Furthermore, the course is soft, there's less wind and birdies are plentiful. The chasing pack will undoubtedly make a run at him and he'll need to shoot under par to win.
Those of you who have been following our in-play blogs this week will have Brendan onside after the first round at 80/1. We also tipped up Chris Kirk at 80/1 that day and he too remains well in the hunt.
Golf Betting Club subscribers are in an even stronger position as Joaquin Niemann was tipped up pre-event at 25/1. Second favourite with the bookies at 4/1, Niemann is a serious threat to Steele and is a proven final round performer. He has a 4⭐ Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Rating and we can expect him to go close today.
Given the course conditions and the potential for low scores, it's a sensible play to add one further bet to our existing position.
-18 Steele
-16 Na
-16 Niemann
-15 Henley
-15 Kirk
-15 Cink
-15 Hoffman
-15 Malnati
Those of you who wanted to forget 2020 will be having trouble this morning. Last year's third round leader, Brendan Steele, leads again at the same stage and enters the final round as 7/2 favourite. He's a longer price than 2020, but that reflects the fact he has a two shot lead (he had three in 2020) and the chasing pack is much larger.
In 2020, there were only 2 players within four shots of Brendan. This year there are 11 within four shots. Furthermore, the course is soft, there's less wind and birdies are plentiful. The chasing pack will undoubtedly make a run at him and he'll need to shoot under par to win.
Those of you who have been following our in-play blogs this week will have Brendan onside after the first round at 80/1. We also tipped up Chris Kirk at 80/1 that day and he too remains well in the hunt.
Golf Betting Club subscribers are in an even stronger position as Joaquin Niemann was tipped up pre-event at 25/1. Second favourite with the bookies at 4/1, Niemann is a serious threat to Steele and is a proven final round performer. He has a 4⭐ Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Rating and we can expect him to go close today.
Given the course conditions and the potential for low scores, it's a sensible play to add one further bet to our existing position.
Sunday's Bets
Kevin has a 4⭐ Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Rating and is considered a big threat today. Only two shots off the lead, he is a proven winner on short courses where putting is at a premium. Yesterday's 61 could have quite easily been a 59 as he missed five birdie putts under 11ft. There's always some trepidation over a player's ability to back up a low round with another, but it's worth mentioning that Kevin shot 62-61 during the 2nd and 3rd rounds of his last win at the Shriners Hospitals For Children Open. Kevin has improved every day this week and he's a smart play to get onside.
16 January 12.30
-12 Taylor (Nick)
-10 Taylor (Vaughn)
-10 Simpson
-10 Henley
-10 Kirk
-10 Cink
-9 Eight Players Tied
For a brief part of the round it looked like Vaughn Taylor was going to take the 36 hole lead when he got to -10 through 12 holes, but it was his namesake Nick Taylor who leapfrogged the field with a superb 62, including 5 birdies in his final 7 holes.
He now takes a two shot lead but the chasing pack is bunched and full of market favourites. Rightly so, the bookmakers rate Webb Simpson 7/1 favourite and that price almost looks generous considering he was pre-event favourite and sits in 2nd place.
Stopping us from taking the price is the nature of the event - yesterday was further evidence leaderboards can change fast here when there are so many birdie opportunities. Furthermore, the current one is packed with PGA Tour champions - the top 14 have all won before on tour.
Nick Taylor is a difficult player to assess as he often flatters to deceive. However, it is hard not to remember his performance at Pebble Beach last year where he was in a similar position at halfway and fended off Phil Mickelson, Jason Day and Kevin Streelman to win by four. He has not been in this position since, but will take great heart from that performance. He is also well aware that he will need to keep the foot down if he is to win;
"If it's similar conditions with the scores, it's so bunched I'm going to have to keep making as many birdies as possible. I'll have the same game plan: Tees, greens, but the mindset is to try and make birdie."
Two of our first round plays, Chris Kirk (80/1) and Brendan Steele (80/1), made good progress yesterday and sit two and three shots off the lead respectively. Our pre-event selection Joaquin Niemann (25/1) is also still in the hunt at -9 despite a disappointing second round, so we are happy to play a waiting game for now.
-12 Taylor (Nick)
-10 Taylor (Vaughn)
-10 Simpson
-10 Henley
-10 Kirk
-10 Cink
-9 Eight Players Tied
For a brief part of the round it looked like Vaughn Taylor was going to take the 36 hole lead when he got to -10 through 12 holes, but it was his namesake Nick Taylor who leapfrogged the field with a superb 62, including 5 birdies in his final 7 holes.
He now takes a two shot lead but the chasing pack is bunched and full of market favourites. Rightly so, the bookmakers rate Webb Simpson 7/1 favourite and that price almost looks generous considering he was pre-event favourite and sits in 2nd place.
Stopping us from taking the price is the nature of the event - yesterday was further evidence leaderboards can change fast here when there are so many birdie opportunities. Furthermore, the current one is packed with PGA Tour champions - the top 14 have all won before on tour.
Nick Taylor is a difficult player to assess as he often flatters to deceive. However, it is hard not to remember his performance at Pebble Beach last year where he was in a similar position at halfway and fended off Phil Mickelson, Jason Day and Kevin Streelman to win by four. He has not been in this position since, but will take great heart from that performance. He is also well aware that he will need to keep the foot down if he is to win;
"If it's similar conditions with the scores, it's so bunched I'm going to have to keep making as many birdies as possible. I'll have the same game plan: Tees, greens, but the mindset is to try and make birdie."
Two of our first round plays, Chris Kirk (80/1) and Brendan Steele (80/1), made good progress yesterday and sit two and three shots off the lead respectively. Our pre-event selection Joaquin Niemann (25/1) is also still in the hunt at -9 despite a disappointing second round, so we are happy to play a waiting game for now.
15 January 11.50
-8 Kokrak
-8 Niemann
-8 Malnati
-6 Herman
-6 Taylor
-6 Kim
-6 Berger
-6 Kizzire
-6 Baddeley
-5 Twelve Players Tied
Peter Malnati raced out the blocks with a 62 which looked good enough to be sole leader, however, as most of us in the UK were sleeping, Jason Kokrak and Joaquin Niemann joined him.
The young Chilean, Joaquin Niemann, is now the bookies favourite at a best price of 6/1. He was our headline 25/1 pick this week for our subscribers as our player profile identified him as a player who can hold form. The news he was paired with good friend/mentor Sergio Garcia for the first two days were enough to tempt us in and it's a shame he is unlikely to play with the Spaniard for the weekend - he is -17 for his last two rounds with him!
It is still early days though and his co-leaders are no mugs either. Kokrak finally got his first PGA Tour win at The CJ Cup@ Shadow Creek at the end of last year and although his form has been poor since, that weight off his shoulders should serve him well now. Malnati was also knocking at the door at the end of 2020 with a 5th at Shriners and 2nd at Sandersons Farms, and is capable of sticking around. Neither have a previous top 10 here though despite having shown glimpses.
The pre-tournament favourites have also made a strong start with Berger at -6, Simpson -5 and Morikawa -4. All are obviously dangers, however, the odds reflect that. Our preview highlighted that Justin Thomas is the only recent winner to have started under 40/1 so we're not hugely keen to back any of them at this stage.
We also mentioned in the preview that recent history tells us that you can be a few shots back after round 1 and go on to win. For that reason we have selected a few of the guys on -5 with enough pedigree to mount a challenge.
-8 Kokrak
-8 Niemann
-8 Malnati
-6 Herman
-6 Taylor
-6 Kim
-6 Berger
-6 Kizzire
-6 Baddeley
-5 Twelve Players Tied
Peter Malnati raced out the blocks with a 62 which looked good enough to be sole leader, however, as most of us in the UK were sleeping, Jason Kokrak and Joaquin Niemann joined him.
The young Chilean, Joaquin Niemann, is now the bookies favourite at a best price of 6/1. He was our headline 25/1 pick this week for our subscribers as our player profile identified him as a player who can hold form. The news he was paired with good friend/mentor Sergio Garcia for the first two days were enough to tempt us in and it's a shame he is unlikely to play with the Spaniard for the weekend - he is -17 for his last two rounds with him!
It is still early days though and his co-leaders are no mugs either. Kokrak finally got his first PGA Tour win at The CJ Cup@ Shadow Creek at the end of last year and although his form has been poor since, that weight off his shoulders should serve him well now. Malnati was also knocking at the door at the end of 2020 with a 5th at Shriners and 2nd at Sandersons Farms, and is capable of sticking around. Neither have a previous top 10 here though despite having shown glimpses.
The pre-tournament favourites have also made a strong start with Berger at -6, Simpson -5 and Morikawa -4. All are obviously dangers, however, the odds reflect that. Our preview highlighted that Justin Thomas is the only recent winner to have started under 40/1 so we're not hugely keen to back any of them at this stage.
We also mentioned in the preview that recent history tells us that you can be a few shots back after round 1 and go on to win. For that reason we have selected a few of the guys on -5 with enough pedigree to mount a challenge.
Friday's Bets
Brendan was 2nd here in 2020 and he really should have won the event. He is a three-time winner on the PGA Tour and appears to be being disrespected by the bookmakers this week. Notably, he won the Safeway Open back to back in 2016 and 2017 so we know he can hold event form. His other PGA Tour victory came in Texas so we know he doesn't mind a little bit of wind should it kick up at the weekend.
Chris is another three-time PGA Tour winner who is on the comeback trail. A winner on the Korn Ferry Tour last year followed by some nice form in the fall, it shouldn't be too long before Kirk starts placing in PGA Tour events again. He posted -5 yesterday which included a treble bogey. If he is able to cut out the mistakes, he has the aggressive game to score well around here.
C.T. won the Heritage in 2019 which is hosted at another tactical track like this one. He showed just how good a player he is at the Masters in November, finishing 7th. This week's course plays to his strengths and we know if he gets a sniff on Sunday, he has the temperament to get the job done. Take the standout 100/1 price at Vbet if you can get on but 80/1 generally with six places is still fair.
Tom is an improving player and finished the year off nicely with a 3rd at Mayakoba, a venue with similarities to here. He also has impressive course form here with a 12th last year and 3rd in 2018. Tom hasn't won anywhere since 2011, when he won on the Canadian Tour, so he is preferred in the top 5 market. Despite his lack of wins, five top 6 finishes in the last 18 months show he is a capable player. He also appears to produce his best results at the start of the year.
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