PGA Tour In-Play Tips
Pebble Beach In-Play
14 February 11.25pm
-13 Spieth
-11 Berger
-11 Cantlay
-11 Lashley
-11 Knox
-11 Hoge
-10 Four Players Tied
After 15 holes yesterday, Jordan Spieth sat two shots behind leaders Berger and Lashley before a remarkable sequence of events put him two clear at the top and made him 15/8 favourite.
It started with Spieth holing out from 160 yards on the 16th. The celebrations were muted but the leaders acted like they could hear the roars. Nate Lashley proceeded to three putt on 17 before taking a trip to the beach on 18 to finish bogey bogey. Daniel Berger then hit his drive out of bounds on 18, resulting in a double bogey and all of a sudden Spieth had a nice cushion.
From an entertainment perspective, this is the best possible scenario, and when Spieth is involved we can always expect some drama. It is also arguably a great betting angle as the pressure on him could easily lead to an off the pace winner. As mentioned in yesterday's blog, he is heavily under the microscope and the bogey on the par 5 2nd was a prime example.
Putting bets aside, I'm sure most golf fans would love to see Jordan get it done today. However, the last three times he had a chance of winning he flattered to deceive. Our player profile shows he currently rates two stars in contention and we think he is likely to be caught.
The bookmakers rate Patrick Cantlay and Daniel Berger as the obvious candidates to topple him at 7/2 and 11/2 respectively - and both are in with a great chance. Cantlay's performance at the American Express from off the pace was eye catching and he is the most likely. Berger let us down massively at the Tournament of Champions with a final round 72, and although he is more than capable of bouncing back, it's enough to put us off.
Our pre-event 150/1 pick Nate Lashley is still right in this (despite the sloppy finish) if he can play a similar tee to green game as yesterday (except the 18th). We also have Hoge in-play at 125/1 but his performance once he hit the front at halfway was alarming. We're more hopeful than optimistic on that one. Knox hasn't won since 2018 but we should remember he is a WGC champion in 2015. Further danger lurks at -10 with Paul Casey and Jason Day both at 14/1 to nick the title.
The wind looks set to be 12-15mph which will be enough to cause some mistakes but there shouldn't be complete havoc.
Sunday's Bets
Given our uncertainties with the front three in the market, we were keen to get either Jason Day or Paul Casey onside as they both rank highly in our pressure performance ratings. Casey gets the nod based on his confidence levels and the fact he is not far off his starting price despite being 3 off the lead. He has played the 5th hole in three over par but apart from that he is bogey free at Pebble Beach. Ranks 3rd for GIR. One look at his pressure performance rating points a to a big Sunday and he can't be left out of the staking plan.
Kevin is 8 under par, five shots back of Spieth in 13th place. He is three off 2nd place and will have his work cut out but our player profile lists him as a notoriously fast finisher. The profile also mentions he builds up to big finishes in his 3rd or 4th start, which would make sense here as he arrives for his 4th consecutive event in trending form of MC-37-22. Furthermore, he shot a final round 68 here last year to finish 2nd so will have great Sunday memories to feed off. Stats are great, ranking 5th for GIR and making up strokes in every department, and he has only made one bogey all week. We were tempted to put him up in the outright market at 100/1 and wouldn't put you off a small play in the hope that Spieth collapses, but will play it safe and take the 8/1 on offer at Hills for a top 5.
13 February 12.05pm
-13 Spieth
-11 Berger
-10 Norlander
-9 Cantlay
-9 Lewis
-9 Casey
-8 Knox
-7 Six Players Tied
Jordan Spieth has continued his resurrection from last week and holds a one shot lead over Daniel Berger. Round one leader Patrick Cantlay could only manage a one over par 73 and is now three back. The draw bias from day one is still evident as only Berger and Paul Casey played Pebble Beach yesterday out of the top 14.
The remaining two rounds are at Pebble Beach. Given the strength of the field, the leaderboard is unusually strong. The four market favourites after DJ's withdrawal are all placed in the top 5, and usually that would give us little hope of an outsider coming through to challenge.
However, there is reason to believe the leaders are worth taking on. Firstly, the wind is set to blow hard today and enough to cause trouble tomorrow. It is likely someone from the chasing pack will still manage a 67/68 and the leaders will tread water if not go backwards.
Secondly, we have niggling doubts about the leaders. Spieth is under intense scrutiny at the moment and a halfway lead will mean a prolonged period of pressure. Berger is the most likely winner in our eyes but he can't continue to hole the putts/chips he did yesterday. Norlander is seeking his first win, Cantlay is hit and miss in contention, and Casey is now playing his 4th week in a row and must be running on low.
Lastly, big comebacks have happened twice in the last five years. In 2018, Ted Potter Jr was eight back at halfway. In 2016, Vaughn Taylor was six back. A closer look at the weather forecast shows the wind gets stronger as the day goes on, so we are having a play on a few possible movers who can take advantage of an early start.
-13 Spieth
-11 Berger
-10 Norlander
-9 Cantlay
-9 Lewis
-9 Casey
-8 Knox
-7 Six Players Tied
Jordan Spieth has continued his resurrection from last week and holds a one shot lead over Daniel Berger. Round one leader Patrick Cantlay could only manage a one over par 73 and is now three back. The draw bias from day one is still evident as only Berger and Paul Casey played Pebble Beach yesterday out of the top 14.
The remaining two rounds are at Pebble Beach. Given the strength of the field, the leaderboard is unusually strong. The four market favourites after DJ's withdrawal are all placed in the top 5, and usually that would give us little hope of an outsider coming through to challenge.
However, there is reason to believe the leaders are worth taking on. Firstly, the wind is set to blow hard today and enough to cause trouble tomorrow. It is likely someone from the chasing pack will still manage a 67/68 and the leaders will tread water if not go backwards.
Secondly, we have niggling doubts about the leaders. Spieth is under intense scrutiny at the moment and a halfway lead will mean a prolonged period of pressure. Berger is the most likely winner in our eyes but he can't continue to hole the putts/chips he did yesterday. Norlander is seeking his first win, Cantlay is hit and miss in contention, and Casey is now playing his 4th week in a row and must be running on low.
Lastly, big comebacks have happened twice in the last five years. In 2018, Ted Potter Jr was eight back at halfway. In 2016, Vaughn Taylor was six back. A closer look at the weather forecast shows the wind gets stronger as the day goes on, so we are having a play on a few possible movers who can take advantage of an early start.
Saturday's Bets
Maverick is five back at -7 following two steady rounds. He has had a slow start to the season but a return to Pebble Beach appears to have boosted him. Last season, he finished 5th here which was his best result of the year. He played the weekend in 66/68 which bodes well for his chances. The 68 on Sunday at Pebble Beach was particularly impressive in strong 15-25mph winds, similar to the ones we will see this weekend. A 7th place finish at Barracuda last year also shows his liking for Poa Annua greens.
Branden was left off the initial staking plan due to concerns over how he will react from the recent passing of his father. He has started positively and sits at -4 after a 69 at Pebble yesterday. With the wind due to be a big factor he has the perfect game to make a move up the leaderboard from a nice early tee time. There is also some value in 9/1 for a top 10 if you want a safer play, but at 300/1 with his pedigree we will take the further risk that he can get into contention for Sunday.
Scott often appears from absolutely nowhere once or twice every season as we saw last year at the Genesis Open where he finished 2nd in a high class field. The wind was a factor that weekend, as it was at the Valero Texas Open and Farmers Insurance Open for two of his top 10's in 2019. He is currently -5, which is only two shots off 8th place, and he also has a nice early tee time. Take him top 10, and is also worth a very small play outright.
12 February 11.00
-10 Cantlay
-8 Bhatia
-8 Norlander
-7 Spieth
-7 Lashley
Patrick Cantlay leads after day one with an effortless 62 at Pebble Beach. The pre-tournament favourite looked fantastic with no breeze to defend the course and is now best price 7/4 to convert. Unsurprisingly, the scoring at Pebble Beach was low and nine of the top 10 on the leaderboard played there yesterday. Will Gordon was the best placed of those that played Spyglass Hill, shooting 6 under par.
The conditions may have been benign yesterday (pgatour.com registered the wind as 0mph!) but it will be very different the next three days. With the wind set to be around 12mph today, 20mph on Saturday and 17mph on Sunday, we are going to see higher scoring for the remainder of the tournament. With conditions set to be tricky, it is far too early to be taking the 7/4 on Cantlay.
Jordan Spieth's revival continued yesterday, his fine iron play carrying over from Phoenix. His driving remains wayward on occasion but he's certainly showing signs he's on the way back.
We have a couple of pre-event selections off to promising starts. Most prominent is 150/1 Nate Lashley, who finds himself only three off the lead.
Weather conditions today will be sunny spells and winds of 12/13 mph.
-10 Cantlay
-8 Bhatia
-8 Norlander
-7 Spieth
-7 Lashley
Patrick Cantlay leads after day one with an effortless 62 at Pebble Beach. The pre-tournament favourite looked fantastic with no breeze to defend the course and is now best price 7/4 to convert. Unsurprisingly, the scoring at Pebble Beach was low and nine of the top 10 on the leaderboard played there yesterday. Will Gordon was the best placed of those that played Spyglass Hill, shooting 6 under par.
The conditions may have been benign yesterday (pgatour.com registered the wind as 0mph!) but it will be very different the next three days. With the wind set to be around 12mph today, 20mph on Saturday and 17mph on Sunday, we are going to see higher scoring for the remainder of the tournament. With conditions set to be tricky, it is far too early to be taking the 7/4 on Cantlay.
Jordan Spieth's revival continued yesterday, his fine iron play carrying over from Phoenix. His driving remains wayward on occasion but he's certainly showing signs he's on the way back.
We have a couple of pre-event selections off to promising starts. Most prominent is 150/1 Nate Lashley, who finds himself only three off the lead.
Weather conditions today will be sunny spells and winds of 12/13 mph.
Friday's Bets
With European style conditions forecast over the weekend we want to get Tom onside. A fine wind player, he will relish the opportunity to play Pebble Beach over the weekend in the forecasted breezy conditions. He hasn't played this event before but that clearly didn't matter yesterday as he ranked 3rd SG: Tee to Green. Tom is a multiple winner on the European Tour, a Korn Ferry Tour winner and has a 2nd place at a WGC event, he's good enough to win here.
Tom is another player who is good in the wind having posted good finishes at coastal events like the Sony Open and Mayakoba Classic. He posted 5 under par yesterday at Pebble Beach, a solid start to the tournament. In doing so he ranked 8th SG: Tee to Green. His ability to finish the job on a Sunday is sometimes called into question but a windy event like this could suit him as he seeks his first PGA Tour win. In windy conditions we often see players come from behind on Sunday, posting a score and the leaders falter. Let's hope this is the case for Tom!
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