PGA Tour Tips & Preview
RSM Classic 2020 Preview
Starts - 19th November 2020
Course - Sea Island Resort - Seaside and Plantation Courses
Par - 70 (Seaside) and 72 (Plantation)
Length – 7,005 yards (Seaside) and 7,060 (Plantation)
Defending Champion - Tyler Duncan
Course - Sea Island Resort - Seaside and Plantation Courses
Par - 70 (Seaside) and 72 (Plantation)
Length – 7,005 yards (Seaside) and 7,060 (Plantation)
Defending Champion - Tyler Duncan
Course Info
Course Designer - Tom Fazio (Seaside) and Davis Love III (Plantation)
Tournament played here since - 2010 but moved to this format in 2015
Type of Course - Coastal, exposed to wind
Fairways - Often demanding tee shots and dog legs. Rough will be minimal at 1.5 inches.
Greens - Bermuda greens which will run at 12.5 on the Stimpmeter at Seaside and 11 at Plantation.
Par 5's - 4th, 7th and 15th on Seaside. 4th, 8th, 14th and 18th on Plantation
Water Hazards - In play on 13 of the holes on Seaside and 10 of the holes on Plantation
Premium on - Accurate driving and approach.
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
This event follows The Masters for the first time. The Heritage normally follows the Masters and we often see players who have been in contention struggle at The Heritage. We should expect a similar pattern this week.
The Plantation course was re-designed in 2019 and last year's event was the first time many players had played it.
Three rounds are played on the Seaside course and one round played on the Plantation. Players will play each course over the first two days. The Seaside played as the harder in 2019, playing 1.56 shots under par on average. The Plantation played 1.10 shots under par by comparison.
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
Weather Forecast
The weather is forecast to be dry all week but we are expected to see a steady breeze each day:
Thursday - 16mph wind forecast
Friday - 13mph wind forecast
Saturday - 14mph wind forecast
Sunday - 12mph wind forecast
Trends
Winning Score - Since this format was adopted in 2015, the winning score has varied between -17 and -22.
Course Form - Three of the past five champions posted a top 25 here prior to winning. The other two were course debutants.
Recent Form - Three of the last five champions had posted a top 20 finish in their previous two starts. Recent form is preferred but not essential.
Two Courses - It is worth noting that four of the past five winners have played the easier Plantation course first, shooting a minimum score of -5. Only Mackenzie Hughes triumphed when playing Seaside first.
Nationality - Every winner of this event has been from America or Canada.
Stats Analysis
SG: Approach - The last three champions ranked 3rd, 17th and 5th in this category so it should very much be valued. Mackenzie Hughes ranked 61st in this category when winning in 2016 but this should be viewed as the exception.
SG: Off The Tee - None of the last four winners have ranked better than 12th in this category and several winners ranked 38th. We should place less emphasis on this but it is worth noting that each of the five winners have all ranked 17th or better in Driving Accuracy.
SG: Around The Green - Over the last four years we've seen mixed rankings from the winners in this category of 38-40-9-1.
SG: Putting - Four of the past five winners have ranked 14th or better in this category, with no winner having ranked worse than 24th. A hot putter is needed this week.
In-play
Fast or Slow Start - Every winner has posted a score of -5 or better in the first round.
*As ever, follow our daily in-play updates and tips on our RSM Classic in-play page*
Course Designer - Tom Fazio (Seaside) and Davis Love III (Plantation)
Tournament played here since - 2010 but moved to this format in 2015
Type of Course - Coastal, exposed to wind
Fairways - Often demanding tee shots and dog legs. Rough will be minimal at 1.5 inches.
Greens - Bermuda greens which will run at 12.5 on the Stimpmeter at Seaside and 11 at Plantation.
Par 5's - 4th, 7th and 15th on Seaside. 4th, 8th, 14th and 18th on Plantation
Water Hazards - In play on 13 of the holes on Seaside and 10 of the holes on Plantation
Premium on - Accurate driving and approach.
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
This event follows The Masters for the first time. The Heritage normally follows the Masters and we often see players who have been in contention struggle at The Heritage. We should expect a similar pattern this week.
The Plantation course was re-designed in 2019 and last year's event was the first time many players had played it.
Three rounds are played on the Seaside course and one round played on the Plantation. Players will play each course over the first two days. The Seaside played as the harder in 2019, playing 1.56 shots under par on average. The Plantation played 1.10 shots under par by comparison.
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
Weather Forecast
The weather is forecast to be dry all week but we are expected to see a steady breeze each day:
Thursday - 16mph wind forecast
Friday - 13mph wind forecast
Saturday - 14mph wind forecast
Sunday - 12mph wind forecast
Trends
Winning Score - Since this format was adopted in 2015, the winning score has varied between -17 and -22.
Course Form - Three of the past five champions posted a top 25 here prior to winning. The other two were course debutants.
Recent Form - Three of the last five champions had posted a top 20 finish in their previous two starts. Recent form is preferred but not essential.
Two Courses - It is worth noting that four of the past five winners have played the easier Plantation course first, shooting a minimum score of -5. Only Mackenzie Hughes triumphed when playing Seaside first.
Nationality - Every winner of this event has been from America or Canada.
Stats Analysis
SG: Approach - The last three champions ranked 3rd, 17th and 5th in this category so it should very much be valued. Mackenzie Hughes ranked 61st in this category when winning in 2016 but this should be viewed as the exception.
SG: Off The Tee - None of the last four winners have ranked better than 12th in this category and several winners ranked 38th. We should place less emphasis on this but it is worth noting that each of the five winners have all ranked 17th or better in Driving Accuracy.
SG: Around The Green - Over the last four years we've seen mixed rankings from the winners in this category of 38-40-9-1.
SG: Putting - Four of the past five winners have ranked 14th or better in this category, with no winner having ranked worse than 24th. A hot putter is needed this week.
In-play
Fast or Slow Start - Every winner has posted a score of -5 or better in the first round.
*As ever, follow our daily in-play updates and tips on our RSM Classic in-play page*
RSM Classic - Six To Watch
As outlined in our Tipping Record, our strategy is to focus on speciality bets and value in-play. However, we have identified the following six players if you do wish to place a bet before the event begins:
Chez Reavie - 100/1 @ Betfred (7 places)
Chez comes into this week off a promising 29th place at The Masters. He hasn't played here since 2015, when he posted a 33rd place finish. He's a far better player now and we shouldn't forget he is ranked 50th in the world. Chez is now a two time PGA Tour winner, having won the Travelers Championship last year. It's notable that he won that event in the week following a good finish at a Major (US Open) and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him do so again.
Russell Knox - 100/1 @ Betfred (7 places)
Russell is driving the ball really nicely at the moment, having ranked 1st in Driving Accuracy last time out in Houston and 19th the week before that in Bermuda. He was 3rd Greens in Regulation in Bermuda and although he was 42nd SG: Approach in Houston, it was largely attributable to his first round. These excellent stats have seen him record consecutive top 16 finishes in his last two starts and a 20th place here last year when starting slowly (he shot an opening round of +1) gives us reason to highlight him.
Aaron Wise - 100/1 @ Betfair (8 places)
Aaron has been in a bit of a slump in recent times but finishes of 11th and 26th in his last two starts hint at a return to form. His iron play has been sound both those weeks and his driving accuracy was good in Bermuda, even if it dropped off slightly last time in Houston. Two of his three career wins have followed a week off and a top 11 finish in his last start, a scenario that presents itself this week. We shouldn't forget he was Rookie of the Year in 2018 and is a far better player than he's been showing recently.
Chris Kirk - 150/1 @ Skybet (8 places)
Chris is a former resident of Sea Island and past champion of this event. It was well documented earlier in the year that he battled alcohol addiction before winning on the Korn Ferry Tour. It would be a nice narrative if he were to win this week at a place that feels comfortable to him and a course he has played hundreds of times (quoted in 2017 as having played Seaside over 300 times). He posted a 44th place last time in Houston but digging deeper he was 13th for Driving Accuracy and 18th for SG: Approach. A better week on greens that are familiar to him could see a high finish.
Troy Merritt - 200/1 @ Betfair (8 places)
Troy is a two time PGA Tour winner and world number 135. He drove the ball accurately in his last two starts, ranking 13th and 4th in this category in Houston and Bermuda. That has seen him post a couple of top 40s and Houston could have been much better had he not started with a 74. He had a couple of top 30s the last two years here also. Too big at these odds.
Scott Brown - 300/1 @ Skybet (8 places)
It was surprising to see Scott priced up so generously given the evidence to suggest he will go well. He's a local, with extensive course knowledge. Has four top 20 finishes in seven starts at this event, including a 4th in 2013. Stats wise, he ranked 19th in Driving Accuracy and 8th in SG: Approach on his way to a 24th place at Houston two weeks ago. At huge odds with eight places available he's one to watch.
Chez Reavie - 100/1 @ Betfred (7 places)
Chez comes into this week off a promising 29th place at The Masters. He hasn't played here since 2015, when he posted a 33rd place finish. He's a far better player now and we shouldn't forget he is ranked 50th in the world. Chez is now a two time PGA Tour winner, having won the Travelers Championship last year. It's notable that he won that event in the week following a good finish at a Major (US Open) and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him do so again.
Russell Knox - 100/1 @ Betfred (7 places)
Russell is driving the ball really nicely at the moment, having ranked 1st in Driving Accuracy last time out in Houston and 19th the week before that in Bermuda. He was 3rd Greens in Regulation in Bermuda and although he was 42nd SG: Approach in Houston, it was largely attributable to his first round. These excellent stats have seen him record consecutive top 16 finishes in his last two starts and a 20th place here last year when starting slowly (he shot an opening round of +1) gives us reason to highlight him.
Aaron Wise - 100/1 @ Betfair (8 places)
Aaron has been in a bit of a slump in recent times but finishes of 11th and 26th in his last two starts hint at a return to form. His iron play has been sound both those weeks and his driving accuracy was good in Bermuda, even if it dropped off slightly last time in Houston. Two of his three career wins have followed a week off and a top 11 finish in his last start, a scenario that presents itself this week. We shouldn't forget he was Rookie of the Year in 2018 and is a far better player than he's been showing recently.
Chris Kirk - 150/1 @ Skybet (8 places)
Chris is a former resident of Sea Island and past champion of this event. It was well documented earlier in the year that he battled alcohol addiction before winning on the Korn Ferry Tour. It would be a nice narrative if he were to win this week at a place that feels comfortable to him and a course he has played hundreds of times (quoted in 2017 as having played Seaside over 300 times). He posted a 44th place last time in Houston but digging deeper he was 13th for Driving Accuracy and 18th for SG: Approach. A better week on greens that are familiar to him could see a high finish.
Troy Merritt - 200/1 @ Betfair (8 places)
Troy is a two time PGA Tour winner and world number 135. He drove the ball accurately in his last two starts, ranking 13th and 4th in this category in Houston and Bermuda. That has seen him post a couple of top 40s and Houston could have been much better had he not started with a 74. He had a couple of top 30s the last two years here also. Too big at these odds.
Scott Brown - 300/1 @ Skybet (8 places)
It was surprising to see Scott priced up so generously given the evidence to suggest he will go well. He's a local, with extensive course knowledge. Has four top 20 finishes in seven starts at this event, including a 4th in 2013. Stats wise, he ranked 19th in Driving Accuracy and 8th in SG: Approach on his way to a 24th place at Houston two weeks ago. At huge odds with eight places available he's one to watch.
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