European Tour Tips & Preview
Portugal Masters 2020 Preview
Starts - 10th September 2020
Course - Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course, Vilamoura, Portugal
Par - 71 (35-36)
Length – 7191 yards
Defending Champion - Steven Brown
Course - Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course, Vilamoura, Portugal
Par - 71 (35-36)
Length – 7191 yards
Defending Champion - Steven Brown
Course Info
Stroke Index 2019 - 70.19
Type of Course - Exposed, linksy.
Fairways - Wide and well bunkered
Rough - Bermuda, not too penal
Greens - Fast, Undulating Poa/Bentgrass
Water - In-play on 7 holes
Par 5's - 5th, 12th an 17th
Premium on - Aggressive play and putting
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals. Last week saw Jordan Smith withdraw due to "struggles living within the European Tour bubble".
Weather Forecast
Warm and sunny all four days with winds in single figures Thursday and Friday. Higher winds expected on Saturday with current forecast saying max winds of 26mph. Eases off Sunday.
Trends
Winning Score - Only one of the last 10 winners have shot worse than -17 to win.
Course Form - 6 of the last 10 winners haven't had a previous top 10 at Dom Pedro.
Recent Form - Last 3 winners all posted a top 15 finish in their previous event.
Favourites or Outsiders - The last 5 winners all started at over 50/1 on the exchange, including last years winner Steven Brown who was a 300/1 shot.
Stats Analysis
Greens in Regulation - Only 3 of last 10 winners were inside the top 10 for GIR. Padraig Harrington was 67th in 2016.
Driving Distance - The winner has been in the top 15 for driving distance in 4 of the last 10 runnings.
Driving Accuracy - The highest ever ranking by a winner in the last 10 years has been 9th. Distance is preferred.
Scrambling - The winner has been in the top 2 in 6 of the last 10 years - although Tom Lewis was 66th when he won in 2018.
Putting - The winner was 1st for Putts Per GIR in 5 of the last 8 years and top 10 the other 3. To win at Dom Pedro you have to putt/score well.
In-play
Tough Holes - Par 4 7th played toughest last year, Par 4 3rd (SI 4), Par 3 16th (SI 3) and Par 4 18th (SI 2) were next.
Birdie Holes - Par 5 5th (SI 18), Par 5 12th (SI 16) and driveable Par 4 15th (SI 17). The 2nd, 4th, 10th and 17th were the next four easiest holes.
Fast or Slow Start - Given the nature of the low scoring, it is possible to play catch up here and a fast start is not a necessity. We quite often see scores in their low 60's which can shoot players up the leaderboard.
*As ever, follow our daily in-play updates and tips on our Portugal Masters in-play page*
Stroke Index 2019 - 70.19
Type of Course - Exposed, linksy.
Fairways - Wide and well bunkered
Rough - Bermuda, not too penal
Greens - Fast, Undulating Poa/Bentgrass
Water - In-play on 7 holes
Par 5's - 5th, 12th an 17th
Premium on - Aggressive play and putting
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals. Last week saw Jordan Smith withdraw due to "struggles living within the European Tour bubble".
Weather Forecast
Warm and sunny all four days with winds in single figures Thursday and Friday. Higher winds expected on Saturday with current forecast saying max winds of 26mph. Eases off Sunday.
Trends
Winning Score - Only one of the last 10 winners have shot worse than -17 to win.
Course Form - 6 of the last 10 winners haven't had a previous top 10 at Dom Pedro.
Recent Form - Last 3 winners all posted a top 15 finish in their previous event.
Favourites or Outsiders - The last 5 winners all started at over 50/1 on the exchange, including last years winner Steven Brown who was a 300/1 shot.
Stats Analysis
Greens in Regulation - Only 3 of last 10 winners were inside the top 10 for GIR. Padraig Harrington was 67th in 2016.
Driving Distance - The winner has been in the top 15 for driving distance in 4 of the last 10 runnings.
Driving Accuracy - The highest ever ranking by a winner in the last 10 years has been 9th. Distance is preferred.
Scrambling - The winner has been in the top 2 in 6 of the last 10 years - although Tom Lewis was 66th when he won in 2018.
Putting - The winner was 1st for Putts Per GIR in 5 of the last 8 years and top 10 the other 3. To win at Dom Pedro you have to putt/score well.
In-play
Tough Holes - Par 4 7th played toughest last year, Par 4 3rd (SI 4), Par 3 16th (SI 3) and Par 4 18th (SI 2) were next.
Birdie Holes - Par 5 5th (SI 18), Par 5 12th (SI 16) and driveable Par 4 15th (SI 17). The 2nd, 4th, 10th and 17th were the next four easiest holes.
Fast or Slow Start - Given the nature of the low scoring, it is possible to play catch up here and a fast start is not a necessity. We quite often see scores in their low 60's which can shoot players up the leaderboard.
*As ever, follow our daily in-play updates and tips on our Portugal Masters in-play page*
Portugal Masters - Six To Watch
,As outlined in our Tipping Record, our strategy is to focus on speciality bets and value in-play. However, we have identified the following six players if you do wish to place a bet before the event begins:
Justin Walters - 75/1 @ Bet365
We made a mental note to have Justin onside for the Portugal Masters early on during the UK Championship before he went on to lose the playoff to Rasmus Hojgaard. He has twice finished 2nd here at Dom Pedro, both times to save his European Tour card, so he may well go one better with the pressure off a little. He looks set to make a breakthrough sooner or later.
Johannes Veerman - 70/1 @ Bet365
One man who might be feeling motivated is American Johannes Veerman after his compatriot John Catlin made his European Tour breakthrough last week. He played nicely also, finishing 10th, which made it 4 Top 40 finishes in his last 5 starts. Stats wise, Johannes fits the bill and there don't appear to be many weaknesses. He ranks inside the top 100 for every category.
Adrian Meronk - 100/1 @Bet365
Adrian has shown glimpses since the return, including 6th place at the Celtic Classic last month. We can ignore a missed cut last week by the big hitting Pole as Dom Pedro should be a course which suits him better. He is a strong putter and scrambler and one final bonus, he won last year in Portugal on the Challenge Tour which should bring him good memories.
Joakim Lagergren - 110/1 @Bet365
Joakim won the Rocco Forte Sicilian Open in 2018 at the Verdura Golf and Spa Resort and that is a course which correlates nicely to Dom Pedro. Three of the last five winners of the Portugal Masters were in the top 7 the year Joakim won at Verdura, so there is a definite link. He's very much a player who is hit or miss, but he showed signs of form at Valderrama last week with 24th place. He has two top 20 finishes in his last three starts here and is one to watch at triple figure odds.
Jens Fahrbring - 175/1 @Bet365
Jens caught our eye at the start of the UK swing, placing 10th place at the Betfred British Masters. He comes in off the back of a 3rd place on the Challenge Tour and looks capable of getting in the mix at a big price. He's on the comeback trail having missed most of 2018 and all of 2019, and is a two time winner on the Challenge Tour. A player to follow when hot.
Julien Guerrier - 200/1 @Bet365
We wouldn't advise backing Julien pre-tournament as he's often underrated by layers in-play. However, if he gets off to a fast start consider getting him onside. He has rock solid form at the Rocco Forte event, having finished 8th and 6th in 2017 and 2018. He also has a respectable 34th in his only appearance at Dom Pedro in 2018. Another player on the comeback trail having missed almost all of 2019 with injury problems but he looked very much like a winner in waiting having won twice on the Challenge Tour in 2017.
Justin Walters - 75/1 @ Bet365
We made a mental note to have Justin onside for the Portugal Masters early on during the UK Championship before he went on to lose the playoff to Rasmus Hojgaard. He has twice finished 2nd here at Dom Pedro, both times to save his European Tour card, so he may well go one better with the pressure off a little. He looks set to make a breakthrough sooner or later.
Johannes Veerman - 70/1 @ Bet365
One man who might be feeling motivated is American Johannes Veerman after his compatriot John Catlin made his European Tour breakthrough last week. He played nicely also, finishing 10th, which made it 4 Top 40 finishes in his last 5 starts. Stats wise, Johannes fits the bill and there don't appear to be many weaknesses. He ranks inside the top 100 for every category.
Adrian Meronk - 100/1 @Bet365
Adrian has shown glimpses since the return, including 6th place at the Celtic Classic last month. We can ignore a missed cut last week by the big hitting Pole as Dom Pedro should be a course which suits him better. He is a strong putter and scrambler and one final bonus, he won last year in Portugal on the Challenge Tour which should bring him good memories.
Joakim Lagergren - 110/1 @Bet365
Joakim won the Rocco Forte Sicilian Open in 2018 at the Verdura Golf and Spa Resort and that is a course which correlates nicely to Dom Pedro. Three of the last five winners of the Portugal Masters were in the top 7 the year Joakim won at Verdura, so there is a definite link. He's very much a player who is hit or miss, but he showed signs of form at Valderrama last week with 24th place. He has two top 20 finishes in his last three starts here and is one to watch at triple figure odds.
Jens Fahrbring - 175/1 @Bet365
Jens caught our eye at the start of the UK swing, placing 10th place at the Betfred British Masters. He comes in off the back of a 3rd place on the Challenge Tour and looks capable of getting in the mix at a big price. He's on the comeback trail having missed most of 2018 and all of 2019, and is a two time winner on the Challenge Tour. A player to follow when hot.
Julien Guerrier - 200/1 @Bet365
We wouldn't advise backing Julien pre-tournament as he's often underrated by layers in-play. However, if he gets off to a fast start consider getting him onside. He has rock solid form at the Rocco Forte event, having finished 8th and 6th in 2017 and 2018. He also has a respectable 34th in his only appearance at Dom Pedro in 2018. Another player on the comeback trail having missed almost all of 2019 with injury problems but he looked very much like a winner in waiting having won twice on the Challenge Tour in 2017.
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