WGC In-Play Tips
WGC Workday Championship In-Play Tips
Welcome to the WGC Workday Championship In-Play Betting Blog. In-play betting advice and tips will be given on this page but to read our event preview click here.
28 February 2021, 11:40am
-15 Morikawa
-13 Koepka
-13 Horschel
-12 Simpson
-11 McIlroy
-11 Reed
-7 Four Players Tied
As so often happens on a Saturday, it was beginning to look like we were in for a dull final round as Collin Morikawa stretched away from the field to get to 17 under through 12. However, two bogeys on the inward par 5's has given the chasers a chance and Morikawa may rue letting everyone back in.
We have Collin as 4 stars in pressure performance, mainly due to his excellent victories at the Workday Live Open and PGA Championship last year. However, to our surprise he let us down at the Tournament of Champions with a final round 73 when starting the final round one shot back. All Collin's wins to date have come from behind so this will be a new challenge starting with a two shot lead. He has the temperament to deal with the pressure but the putter seemed to go cold from the 13th onwards and he looks short enough at 7/4 to convert.
Brooks Koepka is next in the betting at 7/2 and has every chance given his performance in Phoenix. If he is able to overcome his niggling neck injury he is the most likely to chase Morikawa down. Billy Horschel did amazingly well to get back into this but he's not for us in contention.
The next three in the betting are big dangers from off the pace. Webb Simpson and our 30/1 pre-event pick Patrick Reed and clinical in contention, while Rory is more than capable of a low one from off the pace. We will be hoping our two in-play selections Viktor Hovland (50/1) and Hideki Matsuyama (66/1) can make a move from 10 under. Indeed, the 25/1 on Hovland could be worth a play if you aren't already on. He hit every fairway yesterday and lost a stroke on the greens despite shooting 66.
It looks nicely poised for a dramatic Sunday and it has been a thoroughly enjoyable spectacle so far. The Concession is exactly what us punters want to see from a course on Tour, offering the perfect mix of risk and reward. Once again the wind doesn't look to be a factor and we will be set for a Sunday shootout.
-15 Morikawa
-13 Koepka
-13 Horschel
-12 Simpson
-11 McIlroy
-11 Reed
-7 Four Players Tied
As so often happens on a Saturday, it was beginning to look like we were in for a dull final round as Collin Morikawa stretched away from the field to get to 17 under through 12. However, two bogeys on the inward par 5's has given the chasers a chance and Morikawa may rue letting everyone back in.
We have Collin as 4 stars in pressure performance, mainly due to his excellent victories at the Workday Live Open and PGA Championship last year. However, to our surprise he let us down at the Tournament of Champions with a final round 73 when starting the final round one shot back. All Collin's wins to date have come from behind so this will be a new challenge starting with a two shot lead. He has the temperament to deal with the pressure but the putter seemed to go cold from the 13th onwards and he looks short enough at 7/4 to convert.
Brooks Koepka is next in the betting at 7/2 and has every chance given his performance in Phoenix. If he is able to overcome his niggling neck injury he is the most likely to chase Morikawa down. Billy Horschel did amazingly well to get back into this but he's not for us in contention.
The next three in the betting are big dangers from off the pace. Webb Simpson and our 30/1 pre-event pick Patrick Reed and clinical in contention, while Rory is more than capable of a low one from off the pace. We will be hoping our two in-play selections Viktor Hovland (50/1) and Hideki Matsuyama (66/1) can make a move from 10 under. Indeed, the 25/1 on Hovland could be worth a play if you aren't already on. He hit every fairway yesterday and lost a stroke on the greens despite shooting 66.
It looks nicely poised for a dramatic Sunday and it has been a thoroughly enjoyable spectacle so far. The Concession is exactly what us punters want to see from a course on Tour, offering the perfect mix of risk and reward. Once again the wind doesn't look to be a factor and we will be set for a Sunday shootout.
Sunday's Bet
Webb's profile also shows a 4 star pressure performance rating and we think he is worth a small play given his performances at the RBC Heritage and Waste Management Phoenix Open last year. He birdied the last two holes to deny Tony Finau in Phoenix and was ruthless at the Heritage, reeling off birdie after birdie. A similar performance would ask the question. Stats wise, he is performing well - 3rd tee to green, 7th for approach and 3rd around the greens. Webb is usually a strong putter so we can expect him to improve on this today.
27 February 2021, 12:10pm
-11 Koepka
-10 Morikawa
-10 Horschel
-10 Smith
-9 Fitzpatrick
-9 Simpson
-9 Finau
-8 Kisner
-8 Reed
-7 Two Players Tied
Brooks Koepka has the halfway lead as he tries to build on his victory in Phoenix a couple of weeks ago, but the real drama was with our sole 50/1 in-play tip yesterday. Viktor Hovland burst out the blocks, with five birdies in his first six holes. Two more at his 16th and 17th holes got him to 8 under, trading in single figures at one point, but he made a complete mess of his final hole with an 8 to finish. It was a cruel blow considering the quality of his golf beforehand but he has 36 holes left to potentially grab an each way return.
Whilst all this was happening, Collin Morikawa blitzed through the field with a 64. He joins Cameron Smith and Billy Horschel in second place, one back from Koepka. The leaderboard is packed with quality but they will have their work cut out to keep up with Brooks this weekend. Our player profile gives him a 4 star pressure performance rating and he demands respect. With that said, he began the final round of the PGA Championship within two of the lead and finished 29th so he is no given.
Out of the chasing pack, we are quite happy with our pre-event selections with two of them in the top 10. There doesn't appear to be a great deal of value around with the top eight in the betting 14/1 or less, but we think one price is bigger than it should be heading into the weekend.
-11 Koepka
-10 Morikawa
-10 Horschel
-10 Smith
-9 Fitzpatrick
-9 Simpson
-9 Finau
-8 Kisner
-8 Reed
-7 Two Players Tied
Brooks Koepka has the halfway lead as he tries to build on his victory in Phoenix a couple of weeks ago, but the real drama was with our sole 50/1 in-play tip yesterday. Viktor Hovland burst out the blocks, with five birdies in his first six holes. Two more at his 16th and 17th holes got him to 8 under, trading in single figures at one point, but he made a complete mess of his final hole with an 8 to finish. It was a cruel blow considering the quality of his golf beforehand but he has 36 holes left to potentially grab an each way return.
Whilst all this was happening, Collin Morikawa blitzed through the field with a 64. He joins Cameron Smith and Billy Horschel in second place, one back from Koepka. The leaderboard is packed with quality but they will have their work cut out to keep up with Brooks this weekend. Our player profile gives him a 4 star pressure performance rating and he demands respect. With that said, he began the final round of the PGA Championship within two of the lead and finished 29th so he is no given.
Out of the chasing pack, we are quite happy with our pre-event selections with two of them in the top 10. There doesn't appear to be a great deal of value around with the top eight in the betting 14/1 or less, but we think one price is bigger than it should be heading into the weekend.
Saturday's Bets
Hideki is 6 under par, 5 off the lead. Only one player has made more birdies so far, but there have been expensive mistakes also. Two 7's on Friday means he still has lots of work to do but he is capable of raising his game at the weekend, as he showed in Houston at the end of 2020 with rounds of 70-70-66-63 to finish 2nd. He improved by 5 shots tee to green yesterday and the putter is working nicely, gaining over 1.5 shots each day. As an added bonus, Hideki has a great record at The Memorial which is also a Nicklaus design. Let's take our chances that he can cut out the mistakes.
26 February 2021, 11:30am
-6 Fitzpatrick
-6 Simpson
-5 Kisner
-5 Horschel
-5 Koepka
-5 Garcia
-4 Six Players Tied
The Concession has so far proved to be an excellent venue judging by the disparity of the scores. Simpson and Fitzpatrick share the lead at 6 under par and at the bottom of the leaderboard, the world number one Dustin Johnson and Bryson DeChambeau sit at 5 over par. Matthew Wolff shot 83 and has now withdrawn.
Having seen the course in action now, in particular the greens, it is easy to see why we are seeing such a contrast in the scoring. Good shots are punished easily by the undulated greens and run off areas, and water is in play on two thirds of the holes. This may bode well for the slow starters as they aim to play catch up.
Our outright picks are off to a decent enough start with two of them in the top 10. Following DJ's demise, the bookies rate Jon Rahm narrow favourite at 6/1, closely followed by Brooks Koepka at 7/1 and Webb Simpson at 15/2. The best performers tee to green were Sergio Garcia and Matt Fitzpatrick and we were tempted by both but given the company they are in we would have liked slightly bigger than their current odds.
The wind won't be much of an issue today so the difficulty of the course will all depend on pin placements. We can likely expect some good scoring by the leaders again.
-6 Fitzpatrick
-6 Simpson
-5 Kisner
-5 Horschel
-5 Koepka
-5 Garcia
-4 Six Players Tied
The Concession has so far proved to be an excellent venue judging by the disparity of the scores. Simpson and Fitzpatrick share the lead at 6 under par and at the bottom of the leaderboard, the world number one Dustin Johnson and Bryson DeChambeau sit at 5 over par. Matthew Wolff shot 83 and has now withdrawn.
Having seen the course in action now, in particular the greens, it is easy to see why we are seeing such a contrast in the scoring. Good shots are punished easily by the undulated greens and run off areas, and water is in play on two thirds of the holes. This may bode well for the slow starters as they aim to play catch up.
Our outright picks are off to a decent enough start with two of them in the top 10. Following DJ's demise, the bookies rate Jon Rahm narrow favourite at 6/1, closely followed by Brooks Koepka at 7/1 and Webb Simpson at 15/2. The best performers tee to green were Sergio Garcia and Matt Fitzpatrick and we were tempted by both but given the company they are in we would have liked slightly bigger than their current odds.
The wind won't be much of an issue today so the difficulty of the course will all depend on pin placements. We can likely expect some good scoring by the leaders again.
Friday's Bets
Viktor is one under par after finishing with three birdies to save his round, which should give him good momentum. He does have a lot of traffic to pass, however, a look his recent finishes show he has a habit of starting slow and placing. He has finished 5-6-2 in his last 3 starts and each time he was at least 6 shots behind after round one. A look back at previous WGC's shows the last four winners have all been at least 3 back (Brooks was 6 back) so there is plenty of time for the youngster to let his class show. Obviously, quite a risky play but the rewards could be worth it if he can have a good round today.
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