2020 US Open Tips & Preview
US Open 2020
Date - 17th-20th September 2020
Course - Winged Foot G.C.
Par - 70
Length - 7,477 yards
Greens Grass Type - Poa Annua and Bentgrass
Favourite to win - Dustin Johnson
US Open 2020 Live Scoring - Here
Course Info
Designed by A.W. Tillinghast, Winged Foot was last used for the 2006 US Open and before that the 1997 USPGA Championship. Winged Foot is a severe test with only 4 players breaking par in 1997 and nobody under par in 2006 (the winning score was +5).
Winged Foot has hosted six US Opens and only one has been won with a score under par. Its difficulty can in part be attributed to its length, and the fact there are just two par 5s, the 5th and the 12th. The 12th played 640 yards in 2006 and actually played over par, whilst the 5th was much easier and was the only hole on the course that played under par!
In 2006 the 1st, 14th and 18th proved to be the 3 hardest holes, but given 17 played over par, pars are the name of the game here rather than birdies.
There have been several changes to the course since 2006. It is 213 yards longer overall with the biggest change being on the 17th, which has gained an extra 55 yeards. Several holes have also swapped par since 2006, the fifth hole becoming a par 4 from a par 5 (despite only being 13 yards shorter) and the ninth hole now plays as a par 5 instead of a par 4. We should expet the fifth to be a difficult hole this year.
As with all US Opens, the greens will be lightning fast with thick rough for those who miss the fairway. The fairways at Winged Foot in 2006 were relatively narrow but in recent years the US Open has had wider ones so it will be interesting to see how the course is set up after coming in for heavy criticism in 2006.
The 2004 US Amateur was also held here, won by Ryan Moore.
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
The US Open has been moved to September for the first time in its history. Please be aware this will change the course conditions. We have seen the effects moving a tournament can have from The Players Championship moving from May to March, so we must factor this into our analysis.
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals; Scottie Scheffler withdrew this week.
Trends
The world's top 50 players have had somewhat of a monopoly on Major titles in recent years given that the last 33 champions have been been in this bracket.
The US Open has been a younger man's Major in recent times with the last 11 winners being 35 or less. Of those, 10 were under 32.
It has also been an event which has favoured first time Major winners in recent years with 8 of the past 11 claiming their first Major. However, it's not an event to record your first ever win in America, with only one winner from the past 11 having not won on the PGA Tour before.
As with The Open Championship, experience of playing in a US Open before is essential. In the last 10 years only 1 player has won a US Open without previously having a top-25 finish and every winner in the last 10 years has made at least one previous US Open appearance.
Stats Analysis
In an event known for the thickest rough it would have been unthinkable a few years ago to predict the last four winners of the US Open would be Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka (twice) and Gary Woodland - players not known for their driving accuracy. However, big hitters have flourished in recent years. The fact that Phil Mickelson should have won the US Open here in 2006 despite being 51st in the Driving Accuracy stats shows us that we shouldn't be afraid of picking a player who follows the Johnson/Koepka/Woodland mould.
The top-4 at Winged Foot in 2006 don't give us any great clues about what to look for stats wise. Their Driving Accuracy ranged from 8th to 51st. Driving Distance showed a tighter dispersion (ranked between 6th - 29th), as did Greens in Regulation (ranked between 13th - 31st). Total putts gives us the clearest indication given that the top-4 in 2006 ranked between 7th and 13th. We want to make sure any pick has the ability to make those crucial par putts in this event.
In-play
The 2006 US Open at Winged Foot had an incredible finale from a betting perspective with three players trading at less than 1.35 on the Betfair Exchange. The 18th proved to be a real challenge as the three players eventually finishing 2nd all made a mess of it, handing the title to Geoff Ogilvy. Phil Mickelson had a Van De Velde moment when he only needed a par for the title, or a bogey for a playoff, but recorded a double bogey after attempting a ridiculous 2nd shot. Prior to that, Colin Montgomerie also managed to make double bogey from the middle of the fairway when a par 4 would have won him his first Major.
This is a course to think about laying off/cashing out if your pick is a couple ahead playing the 72nd hole.
18 of the past 21 US Open champions have been within 4 shots of the lead after round 1 so don't look too far back if betting in play. Even more relevant is the need to be in the top 6 at the halfway stage. Only 1 person in the last 24 years has won having been outside the top 6 at halfway. The past 21 champions have all been within 4 shots going into the final round.
Course - Winged Foot G.C.
Par - 70
Length - 7,477 yards
Greens Grass Type - Poa Annua and Bentgrass
Favourite to win - Dustin Johnson
US Open 2020 Live Scoring - Here
Course Info
Designed by A.W. Tillinghast, Winged Foot was last used for the 2006 US Open and before that the 1997 USPGA Championship. Winged Foot is a severe test with only 4 players breaking par in 1997 and nobody under par in 2006 (the winning score was +5).
Winged Foot has hosted six US Opens and only one has been won with a score under par. Its difficulty can in part be attributed to its length, and the fact there are just two par 5s, the 5th and the 12th. The 12th played 640 yards in 2006 and actually played over par, whilst the 5th was much easier and was the only hole on the course that played under par!
In 2006 the 1st, 14th and 18th proved to be the 3 hardest holes, but given 17 played over par, pars are the name of the game here rather than birdies.
There have been several changes to the course since 2006. It is 213 yards longer overall with the biggest change being on the 17th, which has gained an extra 55 yeards. Several holes have also swapped par since 2006, the fifth hole becoming a par 4 from a par 5 (despite only being 13 yards shorter) and the ninth hole now plays as a par 5 instead of a par 4. We should expet the fifth to be a difficult hole this year.
As with all US Opens, the greens will be lightning fast with thick rough for those who miss the fairway. The fairways at Winged Foot in 2006 were relatively narrow but in recent years the US Open has had wider ones so it will be interesting to see how the course is set up after coming in for heavy criticism in 2006.
The 2004 US Amateur was also held here, won by Ryan Moore.
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
The US Open has been moved to September for the first time in its history. Please be aware this will change the course conditions. We have seen the effects moving a tournament can have from The Players Championship moving from May to March, so we must factor this into our analysis.
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals; Scottie Scheffler withdrew this week.
Trends
The world's top 50 players have had somewhat of a monopoly on Major titles in recent years given that the last 33 champions have been been in this bracket.
The US Open has been a younger man's Major in recent times with the last 11 winners being 35 or less. Of those, 10 were under 32.
It has also been an event which has favoured first time Major winners in recent years with 8 of the past 11 claiming their first Major. However, it's not an event to record your first ever win in America, with only one winner from the past 11 having not won on the PGA Tour before.
As with The Open Championship, experience of playing in a US Open before is essential. In the last 10 years only 1 player has won a US Open without previously having a top-25 finish and every winner in the last 10 years has made at least one previous US Open appearance.
Stats Analysis
In an event known for the thickest rough it would have been unthinkable a few years ago to predict the last four winners of the US Open would be Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka (twice) and Gary Woodland - players not known for their driving accuracy. However, big hitters have flourished in recent years. The fact that Phil Mickelson should have won the US Open here in 2006 despite being 51st in the Driving Accuracy stats shows us that we shouldn't be afraid of picking a player who follows the Johnson/Koepka/Woodland mould.
The top-4 at Winged Foot in 2006 don't give us any great clues about what to look for stats wise. Their Driving Accuracy ranged from 8th to 51st. Driving Distance showed a tighter dispersion (ranked between 6th - 29th), as did Greens in Regulation (ranked between 13th - 31st). Total putts gives us the clearest indication given that the top-4 in 2006 ranked between 7th and 13th. We want to make sure any pick has the ability to make those crucial par putts in this event.
In-play
The 2006 US Open at Winged Foot had an incredible finale from a betting perspective with three players trading at less than 1.35 on the Betfair Exchange. The 18th proved to be a real challenge as the three players eventually finishing 2nd all made a mess of it, handing the title to Geoff Ogilvy. Phil Mickelson had a Van De Velde moment when he only needed a par for the title, or a bogey for a playoff, but recorded a double bogey after attempting a ridiculous 2nd shot. Prior to that, Colin Montgomerie also managed to make double bogey from the middle of the fairway when a par 4 would have won him his first Major.
This is a course to think about laying off/cashing out if your pick is a couple ahead playing the 72nd hole.
18 of the past 21 US Open champions have been within 4 shots of the lead after round 1 so don't look too far back if betting in play. Even more relevant is the need to be in the top 6 at the halfway stage. Only 1 person in the last 24 years has won having been outside the top 6 at halfway. The past 21 champions have all been within 4 shots going into the final round.
US Open - Six To Watch
As outlined in our Tipping Record, our strategy is to focus on speciality bets and value in-play. However, we have identified the following six players if you do wish to place a bet before the event begins:
Xander Schauffele - 16/1 @ William Hill
Although we are not overjoyed by his price, Xander is our pick of the favourites. His performance at East Lake was particularly impressive, finishing 5th for SG: Off the tee, 1st for SG: Putting and 2nd for scrambling. Form figures of 3-6-5 in the last three US Opens are simply too good to ignore - with no weaknesses in his game, Xander is perfect for the toughest test in golf which simply explains his liking for this major. He has only finished outside the top 25 once in his last 10 starts since lockdown which shows the consistency to his game. It will be of upmost importance that the winner has confidence in every area of his game.
Patrick Reed - 35/1 @ William Hill
All the talk has been that it is going to be a grind and the winner will have to scramble well. The pantomime villain is the first name that springs to mind in that category. Patrick is terrific around the greens as showed at East Lake when he ranked 1st for Scrambling. Even more impressively, he ranked 2nd for SG: Off the tee and 1st for driving accuracy en route to his top 10 finish. He has been trending in the right direction for some weeks now and he looks an ideal fit for this course.
Justin Rose - 55/1 @ William Hill
Another scrapper who springs to mind is former US Open champion Justin Rose - he appears to be the forgotten man out of the world's elite. Is considered "out of form" at the moment although was 9th at the PGA three starts ago and 25th at his last appearance, the Northern Trust. He ranked 12th for SG: Off the tee that week, 9th SG: Tee to green and 5th GIR so his game appears in solid shape. Justin thrives at difficult golf courses, finished 3rd and 10th in his last two US Opens, and is too big at 55/1 given his pedigree.
Louis Oosthuizen - 80/1 @ BetVictor
The South African is playing really steady golf with form figures of 25-13-33-6 and has become a consistent performer in majors in the last 5 years. He already has an Open Championship under his belt and missed out on a playoff in this event in 2015 by one, in addition to a 7th place last year. Out of the 60/1-100/1 category Louis is our pick of the bunch.
Abraham Ancer - 90/1 @ Bet365
This test looks set to call for a great driver of the ball, which Abraham does very well. He is 33rd for SG: Off the tee this year and as an added bonus for Winged Foot he is 11th for Scrambling. He finished 14th at East Lake without the handicap on his last start and is becoming increasingly more comfortable in this company. He may well take inspiration from Collin Morikawa's fearless performance at the PGA last month, and at 90/1 it is worth chancing him contending.
Chez Reavie - 175/1 @ BetVictor
Chez finished like a train at the Safeway Open en route to his 3rd place and, more importantly, his stats impressed too. He ranked 1st for driving accuracy, 1st for SG: Approach the green and 1st for SG: Tee to green. Known for finding fairways, Chez could keep out of the rough more than most and if he keeps that level of iron play he could have more birdie chances than others. He was also in the top 50 for scrambling on tour last season which will help around here. One final bonus, he finished 3rd at the US Open last year. He could be one to keep an eye on at a big price.
Xander Schauffele - 16/1 @ William Hill
Although we are not overjoyed by his price, Xander is our pick of the favourites. His performance at East Lake was particularly impressive, finishing 5th for SG: Off the tee, 1st for SG: Putting and 2nd for scrambling. Form figures of 3-6-5 in the last three US Opens are simply too good to ignore - with no weaknesses in his game, Xander is perfect for the toughest test in golf which simply explains his liking for this major. He has only finished outside the top 25 once in his last 10 starts since lockdown which shows the consistency to his game. It will be of upmost importance that the winner has confidence in every area of his game.
Patrick Reed - 35/1 @ William Hill
All the talk has been that it is going to be a grind and the winner will have to scramble well. The pantomime villain is the first name that springs to mind in that category. Patrick is terrific around the greens as showed at East Lake when he ranked 1st for Scrambling. Even more impressively, he ranked 2nd for SG: Off the tee and 1st for driving accuracy en route to his top 10 finish. He has been trending in the right direction for some weeks now and he looks an ideal fit for this course.
Justin Rose - 55/1 @ William Hill
Another scrapper who springs to mind is former US Open champion Justin Rose - he appears to be the forgotten man out of the world's elite. Is considered "out of form" at the moment although was 9th at the PGA three starts ago and 25th at his last appearance, the Northern Trust. He ranked 12th for SG: Off the tee that week, 9th SG: Tee to green and 5th GIR so his game appears in solid shape. Justin thrives at difficult golf courses, finished 3rd and 10th in his last two US Opens, and is too big at 55/1 given his pedigree.
Louis Oosthuizen - 80/1 @ BetVictor
The South African is playing really steady golf with form figures of 25-13-33-6 and has become a consistent performer in majors in the last 5 years. He already has an Open Championship under his belt and missed out on a playoff in this event in 2015 by one, in addition to a 7th place last year. Out of the 60/1-100/1 category Louis is our pick of the bunch.
Abraham Ancer - 90/1 @ Bet365
This test looks set to call for a great driver of the ball, which Abraham does very well. He is 33rd for SG: Off the tee this year and as an added bonus for Winged Foot he is 11th for Scrambling. He finished 14th at East Lake without the handicap on his last start and is becoming increasingly more comfortable in this company. He may well take inspiration from Collin Morikawa's fearless performance at the PGA last month, and at 90/1 it is worth chancing him contending.
Chez Reavie - 175/1 @ BetVictor
Chez finished like a train at the Safeway Open en route to his 3rd place and, more importantly, his stats impressed too. He ranked 1st for driving accuracy, 1st for SG: Approach the green and 1st for SG: Tee to green. Known for finding fairways, Chez could keep out of the rough more than most and if he keeps that level of iron play he could have more birdie chances than others. He was also in the top 50 for scrambling on tour last season which will help around here. One final bonus, he finished 3rd at the US Open last year. He could be one to keep an eye on at a big price.
