PGA Tour In-Play Tips
Sentry Tournament of Champions
10 January 12.50
-21 English
-21 Palmer
-20 Morikawa
-18 Berger
-17 Thomas
-17 Im
-16 Three Players tied
Harris English did just about enough to hang on to his lead, with a clutch par save from 8ft on the last after finding the penalty area with his approach. He has been joined by Ryan Palmer, who shot a best round of the week 64. It could have been even lower, with three putts of 12ft or less missed on the back 9.
Palmer was also involved in a bit of controversy, when officials questioned whether he had intentionally improved his lie following a duffed chip on the 9th. The joint leader claimed he had kicked the divot in anger as the ball rolled back towards him, which was accepted by the officials and no penalty given. A lot of people on twitter felt he had breached the rules, and it will be interesting to see if this plays on his mind during round four.
It is quite ironic English and Palmer lead the Tournament of Champions as neither has won an individual PGA Tour event for several years. English last won in 2013 at the Mayakoba Classic, and Palmer back in 2010 at the Sony Open in Hawaii. For that reason, many will want to take them on today.
The only player within three shots is Collin Morikawa at one back. Collin was tipped up at 28/1 for our subscribers and he is the most likely winner in our eyes currently. The bookmakers are in agreement though, and there's not enough juice in the price at 11/4 for us to re-invest.
We also put up Daniel Berger pre-event at 28/1 which leaves us in an extremely good position heading into the final round. He won at the Charles Schwab Challenge last year and was selected mainly as he often plays well after a lengthy break. It is interesting he defeated Collin Morikawa in a playoff that day and they are paired together today.
Thomas and Im sit at -17 and have it all do. Four shots is a big deficit on this course, with the leaders expected to shoot at least -4, but it is possible. Xander came from 5 back to win in 2018 which will give hope to Cantlay, Horschel and Niemann who are at -16.
It is expected to be slightly windier today (max winds 20mph) but it won't be enough to prevent the low scoring continuing.
-21 English
-21 Palmer
-20 Morikawa
-18 Berger
-17 Thomas
-17 Im
-16 Three Players tied
Harris English did just about enough to hang on to his lead, with a clutch par save from 8ft on the last after finding the penalty area with his approach. He has been joined by Ryan Palmer, who shot a best round of the week 64. It could have been even lower, with three putts of 12ft or less missed on the back 9.
Palmer was also involved in a bit of controversy, when officials questioned whether he had intentionally improved his lie following a duffed chip on the 9th. The joint leader claimed he had kicked the divot in anger as the ball rolled back towards him, which was accepted by the officials and no penalty given. A lot of people on twitter felt he had breached the rules, and it will be interesting to see if this plays on his mind during round four.
It is quite ironic English and Palmer lead the Tournament of Champions as neither has won an individual PGA Tour event for several years. English last won in 2013 at the Mayakoba Classic, and Palmer back in 2010 at the Sony Open in Hawaii. For that reason, many will want to take them on today.
The only player within three shots is Collin Morikawa at one back. Collin was tipped up at 28/1 for our subscribers and he is the most likely winner in our eyes currently. The bookmakers are in agreement though, and there's not enough juice in the price at 11/4 for us to re-invest.
We also put up Daniel Berger pre-event at 28/1 which leaves us in an extremely good position heading into the final round. He won at the Charles Schwab Challenge last year and was selected mainly as he often plays well after a lengthy break. It is interesting he defeated Collin Morikawa in a playoff that day and they are paired together today.
Thomas and Im sit at -17 and have it all do. Four shots is a big deficit on this course, with the leaders expected to shoot at least -4, but it is possible. Xander came from 5 back to win in 2018 which will give hope to Cantlay, Horschel and Niemann who are at -16.
It is expected to be slightly windier today (max winds 20mph) but it won't be enough to prevent the low scoring continuing.
Sunday's Bets
We were very close to putting Im up as a longshot each way bet at 25/1 but the place terms have put us off. With doubts surrounding the leading pair, he could be the man to make a move from off the pace but we're not sure his putting is good enough to go as low as may be needed to win. As shown at The Masters, he is generally very solid in contention with a 5 star Pressure Performance Ratio on our profile, and his win at Honda was from 3 back. He is smashing the driver this week and creating lots of chances. Currently tied 5th, he can impose himself on the leaders to comfortably land a top 5.
9 January 13.50
-14 English
-12 Palmer
-12 Thomas
-12 Morikawa
-12 Berger
-11 Reed
-11 Im
-11 Todd
-11 Schauffele
-10 Seven Players tied
Justin Thomas reached the turn at -12 and it looked for all the world he was going to stretch away from the field, However, he stalled on the back nine and Harris English took advantage to create a two shot lead.
Thomas traded at 2.26 after 9 holes, but the driver soon deserted him. He found the thick cabbage on 12 and 13 off the tee and he was pretty lucky to find both and play them in one over par. He then failed to take advantage of the relatively easy 14th, 15th and 16th, but did manage to birdie the last to tie 2nd place. The decision to take an iron off the tee on the driveable 14th was a clear message that he didn't feel comfortable with the driver. He will have to improve in this area if he is to win.
English, on the other hand, posted a bogey free 67 and bookmakers now rate him marginal favourite at 9/2. He is without a win since 2013, but given his resurgence in 2020 it is surely a matter of time before he gets the job done. The strength of the chasing pack is enough to put us off him at the price though - SEVEN of the worlds top 10 sit within 4 shots.
Two of our pre-event selections are in great shape so we are happy to leave the outright market alone until tomorrow at least. The easy conditions have made it a bit of a shoot-out and you have to think the winner will be the player who has the hottest putter - which makes predicting the outcome a difficult task. If pushed, Sungjae Im looks a spot of value at 25/1, but we will instead concentrate on the bogey free market offered by Skybet.
The wind hasn't been a major factor which has led to the low scoring. The forecast today is for max winds of 14mph with a bit of rain, so the course should continue to play easy.
-14 English
-12 Palmer
-12 Thomas
-12 Morikawa
-12 Berger
-11 Reed
-11 Im
-11 Todd
-11 Schauffele
-10 Seven Players tied
Justin Thomas reached the turn at -12 and it looked for all the world he was going to stretch away from the field, However, he stalled on the back nine and Harris English took advantage to create a two shot lead.
Thomas traded at 2.26 after 9 holes, but the driver soon deserted him. He found the thick cabbage on 12 and 13 off the tee and he was pretty lucky to find both and play them in one over par. He then failed to take advantage of the relatively easy 14th, 15th and 16th, but did manage to birdie the last to tie 2nd place. The decision to take an iron off the tee on the driveable 14th was a clear message that he didn't feel comfortable with the driver. He will have to improve in this area if he is to win.
English, on the other hand, posted a bogey free 67 and bookmakers now rate him marginal favourite at 9/2. He is without a win since 2013, but given his resurgence in 2020 it is surely a matter of time before he gets the job done. The strength of the chasing pack is enough to put us off him at the price though - SEVEN of the worlds top 10 sit within 4 shots.
Two of our pre-event selections are in great shape so we are happy to leave the outright market alone until tomorrow at least. The easy conditions have made it a bit of a shoot-out and you have to think the winner will be the player who has the hottest putter - which makes predicting the outcome a difficult task. If pushed, Sungjae Im looks a spot of value at 25/1, but we will instead concentrate on the bogey free market offered by Skybet.
The wind hasn't been a major factor which has led to the low scoring. The forecast today is for max winds of 14mph with a bit of rain, so the course should continue to play easy.
Saturday's Bets
Todd was bogey free yesterday and only made one bogey on Thursday. That came from a three putt and to demonstrate just how comfortable he's been tee to green, he's only had two par putts that have been outside 5ft (one of which he made and one of which he missed). He is an extremely steady type, which is ideal for this market. He ranked 23rd for bogey avoidance last season.
Martin is bogey free after 36 holes so this bet would have come up in the last two days. He has gone relatively unnoticed with two rounds of 69 but appears to have a game plan which is paying off. It is also worth mentioning that he has an excellent record at Kapalua in years gone by - it is a course that suits his game. There's every reason to think another bogey free round is possible at big odds.
Martin is bogey free after 36 holes so this bet would have come up in the last two days. He has gone relatively unnoticed with two rounds of 69 but appears to have a game plan which is paying off. It is also worth mentioning that he has an excellent record at Kapalua in years gone by - it is a course that suits his game. There's every reason to think another bogey free round is possible at big odds.
8 January 13.30
-8 Thomas
-8 English
-6 Streb
-6 Garcia
-6 Reed
-6 Taylor
-6 Im
-6 Palmer
-5 Three Players Tied
Welcome to the first blog of 2021, we hope everyone had a great Christmas and New Year. We're underway in Maui with much fancied Justin Thomas and Harris English leading the way.
Both leaders needed a touch of luck yesterday, with Harris chipping in for eagle on 9 and Thomas making a miraculous 37ft par save on 13, when he thought he had lost his ball from the tee. Twelve players are within 3 shots and it is very much all to play for.
Subscribers to our pre-event selections got off to a fast start with 90/1 Robert Streb placing 3rd in the first round leader market. Three of our four outright selections currently sit t12th or better.
The weather forecast looks much the same as yesterday. The early starters will gain a slight advantage as the wind increases throughout the morning, peaking at 18mph around 2pm. The course is receptive with the greens running slow, so more low scoring will be necessary today.
We mentioned in the preview here that you want to be up with the pace after round one and emphasised the importance of being in the top 10 after 18 holes. There are always one or two exceptions but we want to stick with those who have made a fast start. We have selected two value plays who have the ability to place.
-8 Thomas
-8 English
-6 Streb
-6 Garcia
-6 Reed
-6 Taylor
-6 Im
-6 Palmer
-5 Three Players Tied
Welcome to the first blog of 2021, we hope everyone had a great Christmas and New Year. We're underway in Maui with much fancied Justin Thomas and Harris English leading the way.
Both leaders needed a touch of luck yesterday, with Harris chipping in for eagle on 9 and Thomas making a miraculous 37ft par save on 13, when he thought he had lost his ball from the tee. Twelve players are within 3 shots and it is very much all to play for.
Subscribers to our pre-event selections got off to a fast start with 90/1 Robert Streb placing 3rd in the first round leader market. Three of our four outright selections currently sit t12th or better.
The weather forecast looks much the same as yesterday. The early starters will gain a slight advantage as the wind increases throughout the morning, peaking at 18mph around 2pm. The course is receptive with the greens running slow, so more low scoring will be necessary today.
We mentioned in the preview here that you want to be up with the pace after round one and emphasised the importance of being in the top 10 after 18 holes. There are always one or two exceptions but we want to stick with those who have made a fast start. We have selected two value plays who have the ability to place.
Friday's Bets
Robert was a winner for us in the FRL market and we believe he can keep the momentum going. A winner in his last start at the RSM Classic, he was in 3rd place after round one there and backed it up with a 63 to take the 36 hole lead. He noted in his post round interview that it takes him a couple of day to adjust to the greens here usually so we can maybe expect some improvement with the putter. Robert also finished 8th in his previous start at Kapalua so we know he likes the course. Please note he is available at 100/1 at other bookmakers but we have chosen Skybet for the 5 places on offer.
Nick won at Pebble Beach in 2020, defeating a chasing pack of Phil Mickelson, Jason Day and Jordan Spieth. PB is a similar wind exposed coastal track (albeit shorter) so he's not afraid to win by the sea. He played some lovely stuff yesterday and we picked up some nice post round comments which give us hope. He mentioned he has been here since last Tuesday so has had a great preparation and feels comfortable here, "I'm used to the golf course and it just fits my eye". We have been burnt with Nick before but at the price he is worth a small play. Please note he is available at 125/1 at other bookmakers but we have chosen Skybet for the 5 places on offer.
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