2020 US Masters Tips & Preview
The Masters 2020
Date - 12th-15th November
Course - Augusta National G.C.
Par - 72
Length - 7,475 yards
Grass - Bentgrass
Masters 2020 Leaderboard - Here
Course Info
Augusta National is the annual host of The Masters tournament. It was originally designed by Bobby Jones and Alistair Mackenzie but underwent a lengthening process in the early 2000's under the guidance of Tom Fazio. Augusta is a long course, made somewhat longer because the roll on the fairway is minimised due to the grass being cut into the player.
A player comfortable hitting a draw off the tee (or a fade for a left handed golfer) is favoured around Augusta given it offers a huge advantage on holes 2, 10 and 13. Augusta has severe greens, being extremely contoured and lightning fast.
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
This year The Masters has been moved to November for the first time ever. Please be aware this will change the course conditions. We have seen the effects moving a tournament can have with The Players Championship switching from May to March, so we must factor this into our analysis.
The course will play longer as the weather has been wet in recent days. The November weather will also affect those players with injury, particularly back problems.
With no fans present the traditional roars heard throughout the course will not be in effect. The event will also utilise a two tee start for rounds one and two. It will be interesting to see if any experienced players are thrown off by these changes.
Please continue to be aware of the impact Covid-19 may have, Joaquin Niemann and Sergio Garcia have already withdrawn having tested positive in the past few days.
Trends
With such rich tournament history there a number of trends common to Masters winners. Here are four worth highlighting:
1. A player in the World's Top 50 is the likely winner and chances are he'll be American.
"The course is perfection and asks perfection." Nick Faldo
Since 2012, every Masters winner has been ranked within the world's top 50. Americans also tend to fare slightly better, providing 12 of the past 19 champions.
2. Masters debutants can contend but don't normally win at Augusta.
"I can't think of another course in the world that the more you play, the more you learn." Jim Furyk
No Masters debutant has donned the green jacket since Fuzzy Zoeller's win in 1979. Experience counts for a lot round Augusta. However, debutants can contend, particularly if they are a special talent. Jason Day and Jordan Spieth have both gone on to be World Number 1 and both finished 2nd on their Augusta debuts. There are two potential superstars teeing it up this year in Morikawa and Wolff, so we may see at least one debutant place in the top 5.
3. Having experience of playing Augusta on Saturday and Sunday the year before.
Only two players in the last 40 years have won the Masters having not played at Augusta on the weekend the previous year. They were Patrick Reed in 2018 and Tiger Woods in 1997, two players who are pretty well versed in dealing with pressure situations. It's definitely preferential to back someone who has recent experience of a weekend at The Masters.
4. Don't underestimate the importance of major life events to give golfers a new impetus.
Seven of the last nine winners each had a significant life event in the 6 months prior to donning the Green Jacket (see table below). Whether that was the birth of a child, an engagement or marriage, there's a definite performance benefit if you experiencing the bounce of a major life event. So, who in the world top-50 has had a significant life event in 2020?
Adam Hadwin became a father in January. Sergio Garcia and his wife welcomed their second child (first son) in April. Rory McIlroy became a father in August. Finally, whilst not quite in 2020, it is worth mentioning that Rickie Fowler got married in October 2019 and Jon Rahm married in December 2019.
Of the players outside the top 50, Byeong Hun An became a father for the first time in early 2020. Christiaan Bezuidenhout got engaged in January. Rafa Cabrera Bello and his wife also had a baby girl in August 2019, as did Kevin Na and his wife.
Stats Analysis
"If you hit it long and straight and throw it up in the air high and putt well, you'll do well here. That's always been the formula at this golf course." Jack Nicklaus
The old adage says to win at Augusta you must hit it long and high. Whilst winners do tend to be above average, it isn't essential to be the longest on Tour to win here (think Willett, Spieth, Schwartzel etc). That said, the switch to November will see long hitters gain an advantage with the conditions being cooler. It's no surprise Bryson DeChambeau has spent the last few weeks tinkering with longer driver shafts and increasing his swing speed.
"One of the keys to this golf course is to put yourself in those situations where you can be aggressive with your putts" Tiger Woods
Quite simply, to win at Augusta you have to put your ball in the best spot on the green to be able to hole putts. A 10ft uphill put can often be easier than a 5ft downhill putt. Similarly, putting up the slope rather than across it can also be beneficial. It's therefore no surprise that strokes gained approach is the key statistic when it comes to Augusta.
In-play
Augusta has four reachable par 5s for the longest hitters and the shortest of those, the 13th, plays the easiest hole on the course. These holes played as the four easiest holes in 2019.
In 2019 the lengthened 5th hole was the hardest on the course. The first three holes of the back nine also regularly rank amongst the hardest. We should be particularly mindful of the 10th and 11th holes this year. The players normally get a huge bounce on their tee shot at the downhill 10th which sees them play from a flatter lie. If conditions are softer we're likely to see players have longer second shots with the added difficulty of an uneven lie. Similarly, the second shot at the 11th will likely be a longer club given conditions.
The last 30 winners of the Masters have been within the Top-5 going into the final round. Even if you are within the Top-5, if you are more than 2 shots back it's going to be an uphill struggle as 20 out of the last 23 Masters winners have been within 2 going into the final round.
*As ever, follow our daily in-play updates and tips on our MASTERS in-play page*
Course - Augusta National G.C.
Par - 72
Length - 7,475 yards
Grass - Bentgrass
Masters 2020 Leaderboard - Here
Course Info
Augusta National is the annual host of The Masters tournament. It was originally designed by Bobby Jones and Alistair Mackenzie but underwent a lengthening process in the early 2000's under the guidance of Tom Fazio. Augusta is a long course, made somewhat longer because the roll on the fairway is minimised due to the grass being cut into the player.
A player comfortable hitting a draw off the tee (or a fade for a left handed golfer) is favoured around Augusta given it offers a huge advantage on holes 2, 10 and 13. Augusta has severe greens, being extremely contoured and lightning fast.
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
This year The Masters has been moved to November for the first time ever. Please be aware this will change the course conditions. We have seen the effects moving a tournament can have with The Players Championship switching from May to March, so we must factor this into our analysis.
The course will play longer as the weather has been wet in recent days. The November weather will also affect those players with injury, particularly back problems.
With no fans present the traditional roars heard throughout the course will not be in effect. The event will also utilise a two tee start for rounds one and two. It will be interesting to see if any experienced players are thrown off by these changes.
Please continue to be aware of the impact Covid-19 may have, Joaquin Niemann and Sergio Garcia have already withdrawn having tested positive in the past few days.
Trends
With such rich tournament history there a number of trends common to Masters winners. Here are four worth highlighting:
1. A player in the World's Top 50 is the likely winner and chances are he'll be American.
"The course is perfection and asks perfection." Nick Faldo
Since 2012, every Masters winner has been ranked within the world's top 50. Americans also tend to fare slightly better, providing 12 of the past 19 champions.
2. Masters debutants can contend but don't normally win at Augusta.
"I can't think of another course in the world that the more you play, the more you learn." Jim Furyk
No Masters debutant has donned the green jacket since Fuzzy Zoeller's win in 1979. Experience counts for a lot round Augusta. However, debutants can contend, particularly if they are a special talent. Jason Day and Jordan Spieth have both gone on to be World Number 1 and both finished 2nd on their Augusta debuts. There are two potential superstars teeing it up this year in Morikawa and Wolff, so we may see at least one debutant place in the top 5.
3. Having experience of playing Augusta on Saturday and Sunday the year before.
Only two players in the last 40 years have won the Masters having not played at Augusta on the weekend the previous year. They were Patrick Reed in 2018 and Tiger Woods in 1997, two players who are pretty well versed in dealing with pressure situations. It's definitely preferential to back someone who has recent experience of a weekend at The Masters.
4. Don't underestimate the importance of major life events to give golfers a new impetus.
Seven of the last nine winners each had a significant life event in the 6 months prior to donning the Green Jacket (see table below). Whether that was the birth of a child, an engagement or marriage, there's a definite performance benefit if you experiencing the bounce of a major life event. So, who in the world top-50 has had a significant life event in 2020?
Adam Hadwin became a father in January. Sergio Garcia and his wife welcomed their second child (first son) in April. Rory McIlroy became a father in August. Finally, whilst not quite in 2020, it is worth mentioning that Rickie Fowler got married in October 2019 and Jon Rahm married in December 2019.
Of the players outside the top 50, Byeong Hun An became a father for the first time in early 2020. Christiaan Bezuidenhout got engaged in January. Rafa Cabrera Bello and his wife also had a baby girl in August 2019, as did Kevin Na and his wife.
Stats Analysis
"If you hit it long and straight and throw it up in the air high and putt well, you'll do well here. That's always been the formula at this golf course." Jack Nicklaus
The old adage says to win at Augusta you must hit it long and high. Whilst winners do tend to be above average, it isn't essential to be the longest on Tour to win here (think Willett, Spieth, Schwartzel etc). That said, the switch to November will see long hitters gain an advantage with the conditions being cooler. It's no surprise Bryson DeChambeau has spent the last few weeks tinkering with longer driver shafts and increasing his swing speed.
"One of the keys to this golf course is to put yourself in those situations where you can be aggressive with your putts" Tiger Woods
Quite simply, to win at Augusta you have to put your ball in the best spot on the green to be able to hole putts. A 10ft uphill put can often be easier than a 5ft downhill putt. Similarly, putting up the slope rather than across it can also be beneficial. It's therefore no surprise that strokes gained approach is the key statistic when it comes to Augusta.
In-play
Augusta has four reachable par 5s for the longest hitters and the shortest of those, the 13th, plays the easiest hole on the course. These holes played as the four easiest holes in 2019.
In 2019 the lengthened 5th hole was the hardest on the course. The first three holes of the back nine also regularly rank amongst the hardest. We should be particularly mindful of the 10th and 11th holes this year. The players normally get a huge bounce on their tee shot at the downhill 10th which sees them play from a flatter lie. If conditions are softer we're likely to see players have longer second shots with the added difficulty of an uneven lie. Similarly, the second shot at the 11th will likely be a longer club given conditions.
The last 30 winners of the Masters have been within the Top-5 going into the final round. Even if you are within the Top-5, if you are more than 2 shots back it's going to be an uphill struggle as 20 out of the last 23 Masters winners have been within 2 going into the final round.
*As ever, follow our daily in-play updates and tips on our MASTERS in-play page*
The Masters - Six To Watch
As outlined in our Tipping Record, our strategy is to focus on speciality bets and value in-play. However, we have identified the following six players if you do wish to place a bet before the event begins:
Brooks Koepka - 16/1 @ Betfair (10 places)
The front end of the market seems as strong as ever this year and we could make a case for any one of them. However, at odds of 14/1 or less, we don't see the value of siding with the front six in the market given the unpredictable weather forecast and differences in event conditions (two tee start, lack of fans, timing etc). With that said, let's be clear that it would be no shock whatsoever to see a couple of them battling it out for the Green Jacket come Sunday.
Brooks has been priced up at 16/1 and it's enough to get us interested. His recent record in Majors is unparalleled, having won four in quick succession and it arguably could have been more were it not for injuries. Mentally, he's head and shoulders above 91 other players in this field. Only Tiger Woods surpasses him in this department and coming down the stretch he's about as reliable as they come.
You may remember Brooks was written off on the eve of last year's Masters, some commentators questioning his weight loss as a "vanity project." Brooks responded in emphatic fashion by posting an opening 66 at Augusta. He is at his most dangerous when he has a point to prove and it shouldn't go unnoticed that he very much has a point to prove with Bryson DeChambeau emerging on the scene.
He switched back to his old driver last week for the final two rounds and spoke of how he could have won the tournament were it not for using a new driver the first two days. Having that kind of confidence in his driver will be key around a wet Augusta and we saw how he destroyed the par 5s last time he was here (13 under in 2019).
Those of you with a keen eye for stats will point to his poor SG: Approach stats last week as a reason not to back him. On closer inspection a really poor first round where he lost 2.598 shots in this category was the reason. His previous outing at the CJ Cup was a similar story as he lost 0.707 shots in the opening round but bounced back well to finish 14th SG: Approach that week. There's no reason to suggest he can't eradicate that one bad round with the irons this week.
Much has ben spoken about his form coming into the event but a 28th place finish at the CJ Cup and a 5th in Houston last week are a vast improvement on his form (56th-56th-MC) prior to the 2019 Masters. Only a resurgent Tiger Woods prevented him from winning then and it's hard to see Tiger doing that again now. Much has been made of the Brooks/Bryson rivalry and whilst Bryson was impressive winning the US Open we know who we'd rather side with this week!
Hideki Matsuyama - 25/1 @ William Hill (9 places)
It's been no surprise to see Hideki tipped up everywhere given his final round performance in Houston last week, and we were very close to thinking 25/1 is too short. However, we can't get away from the fact that he has an extremely good chance of being in the mix on Sunday.
Form figures of 2-28-21 coupled with the fact he hasn't finished worse than 32nd at Augusta since 2014, including 7th in 2016 and 5th in 2015, are the obvious sign that everything is in place for him to challenge for the title. It is the stats in the key categories that make him a must back though - SG: Approach, SG: Around the Green and par 5 performance.
Last season, Hideki ranked 5th for SG: Approach and SG: Around the green. This season, although a smaller sample, he ranks 46th and 32nd. He also ranked 10th last season for par 5 scoring average.
Looking more closely at recent events, last week at Houston he finished in the top 16 of every Strokes Gained category and 1st for Par 5 scoring. The week before at the CJ Cup he ranked 3rd around the greens which confirms his short game is where it needs to be.
Lastly, he fits the profile of recent first time winners at majors and there aren't many more who deserve it. Begrudgingly, don't miss out on the 25/1!
Collin Morikawa - 30/1 @ Betfair Sportsbook (10 places)
Collin was a winner for us pre-event and in-play at the US PGA Championship a couple of months ago and we are shocked to see him at odds of over 40 on the exchange so soon. The fact he is a debutant is offputting to many and understandably so given the lack of success they have had. He is also deemed 'out of form,' with figures of 50-12-MC-MC.
Let's address the debutant issue first. Of course it helps massively to have course experience at Augusta, there is no doubting that. However, as mentioned above, special talents can do well here. Collin is in that category - three wins in the last 18 months prove that - but what we like most is his fearless approach;
"You know, experience never hurts. Shoot, I wish I had played here 15, 20 times, however many times they have played it. I wish I had that knowledge, but I don't. That's going to grow over the years I keep coming back and I keep playing, but for now I have to feel like I can still compete with these guys. It's not like I'm behind the 8‑ball already and I have a disadvantage. On Thursday, we all start at even par."
Yes, results haven't matched his blistering summer form, but a closer look shows his game isn't that far off. In his penultimate start at the CJ Cup he ranked 3rd for SG: Approach, 20th SG: Around the greens and 8th for par 5 performance. In his last start at ZOZO, he ranked 3rd SG: Around the green. Collin summed up in his interview yesterday exactly why you have to sometimes look past the results;
"My results since the PGA have been a little struggling, but that doesn't mean the golf game and mental side isn't where I want it to be. It's an up‑and‑down game, golf is, but it's a lot of fun."
Lets not forget Collin is ranked 4th in the world, was the 2nd best iron player on tour last season, and the 6th best performers on par 5's - two key ingredients for success here. 30/1 with 10 places available should be snapped up.
Bubba Watson - 30/1 @ William Hill (9 places)
We considered picking Patrick Reed for this fourth spot given his recent form and champion display in 2018, but Bubba narrowly gets the nod. The two time Masters champ is revitalised after a run of missed cuts in the summer and arrives with form figures of 4-7-31-16-18.
It almost seems too obvious a selection but when something is staring you right in the face you can't ignore it. Bubba absolutely adores Augusta, which is perfect for his swashbuckling style. He can use his shot shape to work the slopes and won't find a better course to use his creativity. It fits his eye and if you're one for trends you can't do a lot better than his performances on even years - 5th in 2018, 37th in 2016 (how disappointing) and of course 1st in 2014 and 2012!
Stats wise he fits the bill too - this season he ranks 12th for Par 5 scoring, 9th for SG: Approach, 59th for SG: Around the green and 30th for driving distance. In his penultimate start at the CJ Cup he ranked 4th SG: Approach, 16th SG: Around the greens and 3rd par 5 scoring. It would be a surprise not to see Bubba go well again.
Cameron Smith - 80/1 @ 888Sport (7 places)
Cameron has been playing remarkably consistent golf over the past month and he is following a very similar trend to when he won the Sony Open earlier in the year. That win came after a two week break which was preceded by good form, the same scenario which presents itself here. He's crept into the world's top 50 and whether you take the 80s for 7 places or 66s for 11 places (Skybet), he's a sound each way bet.
In addition to his fine recent form, he's played three times at the Masters and made the cut every time. He boasts a 5th place finish in 2018 so we know he can handle the test.
Those who believe in biorhythm can point to the fact Smith is a proven end of year performer having twice won the Australian PGA at the start of December and also recorded a runner-up spot at the Australian Open in 2016.
Si Woo Kim - 150/1 @ Bet365 (8 places)
Let's start with the positives for Si Woo. Other than a missed cut on his first appearance in 2017, he's posted consecutive top 25 finishes at The Masters. It's notable that his first four rounds at August were all over par, posting a cumulative score of +16. However, he appears to have cracked Augusta, having played his last six rounds in par or better and recording a cumulative score of -10.
His recent form is also encouraging. He was unfortunate to miss the cut last week on the number but prior to that he'd posted a 17th place at the CJ Cup and an 8th at the Shriners Hospitals For Children Open. His three career wins to date have all been proceeded by a mixture of mixed cuts and good finishes and it's this combination which attracts us to him.
Looking at his stats, a good week feels close as he ranked 4th SG: Approach at the Shriners, 1st SG: Around The Green at the CJ Cup and was excellent SG: Off The Tee last time out in Houston (he would have ranked in the top 15 had he continued his average through four rounds). His putting has been up and down but we are willing to roll the dice given the odds on offer and the fact he's a former Players Championship winner. All the pieces of the puzzle are there, it's just a question of will he put them together?
Specials bets
3pts Rickie Fowler to win Rd1 3 ball (10/11 @BetVictor)
Rickie doesn't have the best recent form but he does possess a rock solid recent Masters record. He's up against Danny Willett, who has missed every cut here since his Masters win and withdrew from the Houston Open after shooting a 77 last week. The third member of the group is amateur John Augenstein who is making his debut and likely to struggle with the rigours of Augusta.
2pts Rafa Cabrera Bello to win Rd1 3 ball (13/8 @Bet365)
Like Fowler, Rafa has a solid record at Augusta. His recent form is up and down but his opening rounds in his last four events have been 68-72-68-71 so we aren't overly concerned about his ability to post a good score here. He is up against Mike Weir who has done well on the Champions Tour this season but will struggle with the length of the course this week. His other opponent is Matt Wallace. Wallace played well in Scotland a few weeks back but was off the boil in his last start in Italy and struggled on his Masters debut last year.
1pt Bryson DeChambeau to birdie every par 5 in opening round (7/1 @Skybet)
We were surprised to see odds this big given this bet landed in 2019. Bryson is now a different player and with his length off the tee meaning he will face only a short iron into each of the par 5s this week. He recorded nine birdies on the par 5s in 2019 but we see him getting closer to 12 this week and with that in mind, the 7s is worth a small bet. There is a risk that one bad shot could ruin this bet but four good tee shots should see it land.
0.5pts e/w Bernd Wiesberger Top Continental European (10/1 @ bet365 - 1/3 1,2,3)
0.5pts e/w Viktor Perez Top Continental European (11/1 @ bet365 - 1/3 1,2,3)
Jon Rahm is massive favourite to win this market but given Bet365 are offering three places its worth putting small bets on Wiesberger and Perez given the rest of the competitors are opposable. It's not inconceivable that one of these two pip Rahm this week but they both have good place claims even if they don't. Wiesberger has a steady Masters record and will enjoy the softer conditions this week. Viktor Perez is a debutant but has Rory McIlroy's old caddie, JP Fitzgerald, on the bag and Fitzgerald will be able to guide him round.
Brooks Koepka - 16/1 @ Betfair (10 places)
The front end of the market seems as strong as ever this year and we could make a case for any one of them. However, at odds of 14/1 or less, we don't see the value of siding with the front six in the market given the unpredictable weather forecast and differences in event conditions (two tee start, lack of fans, timing etc). With that said, let's be clear that it would be no shock whatsoever to see a couple of them battling it out for the Green Jacket come Sunday.
Brooks has been priced up at 16/1 and it's enough to get us interested. His recent record in Majors is unparalleled, having won four in quick succession and it arguably could have been more were it not for injuries. Mentally, he's head and shoulders above 91 other players in this field. Only Tiger Woods surpasses him in this department and coming down the stretch he's about as reliable as they come.
You may remember Brooks was written off on the eve of last year's Masters, some commentators questioning his weight loss as a "vanity project." Brooks responded in emphatic fashion by posting an opening 66 at Augusta. He is at his most dangerous when he has a point to prove and it shouldn't go unnoticed that he very much has a point to prove with Bryson DeChambeau emerging on the scene.
He switched back to his old driver last week for the final two rounds and spoke of how he could have won the tournament were it not for using a new driver the first two days. Having that kind of confidence in his driver will be key around a wet Augusta and we saw how he destroyed the par 5s last time he was here (13 under in 2019).
Those of you with a keen eye for stats will point to his poor SG: Approach stats last week as a reason not to back him. On closer inspection a really poor first round where he lost 2.598 shots in this category was the reason. His previous outing at the CJ Cup was a similar story as he lost 0.707 shots in the opening round but bounced back well to finish 14th SG: Approach that week. There's no reason to suggest he can't eradicate that one bad round with the irons this week.
Much has ben spoken about his form coming into the event but a 28th place finish at the CJ Cup and a 5th in Houston last week are a vast improvement on his form (56th-56th-MC) prior to the 2019 Masters. Only a resurgent Tiger Woods prevented him from winning then and it's hard to see Tiger doing that again now. Much has been made of the Brooks/Bryson rivalry and whilst Bryson was impressive winning the US Open we know who we'd rather side with this week!
Hideki Matsuyama - 25/1 @ William Hill (9 places)
It's been no surprise to see Hideki tipped up everywhere given his final round performance in Houston last week, and we were very close to thinking 25/1 is too short. However, we can't get away from the fact that he has an extremely good chance of being in the mix on Sunday.
Form figures of 2-28-21 coupled with the fact he hasn't finished worse than 32nd at Augusta since 2014, including 7th in 2016 and 5th in 2015, are the obvious sign that everything is in place for him to challenge for the title. It is the stats in the key categories that make him a must back though - SG: Approach, SG: Around the Green and par 5 performance.
Last season, Hideki ranked 5th for SG: Approach and SG: Around the green. This season, although a smaller sample, he ranks 46th and 32nd. He also ranked 10th last season for par 5 scoring average.
Looking more closely at recent events, last week at Houston he finished in the top 16 of every Strokes Gained category and 1st for Par 5 scoring. The week before at the CJ Cup he ranked 3rd around the greens which confirms his short game is where it needs to be.
Lastly, he fits the profile of recent first time winners at majors and there aren't many more who deserve it. Begrudgingly, don't miss out on the 25/1!
Collin Morikawa - 30/1 @ Betfair Sportsbook (10 places)
Collin was a winner for us pre-event and in-play at the US PGA Championship a couple of months ago and we are shocked to see him at odds of over 40 on the exchange so soon. The fact he is a debutant is offputting to many and understandably so given the lack of success they have had. He is also deemed 'out of form,' with figures of 50-12-MC-MC.
Let's address the debutant issue first. Of course it helps massively to have course experience at Augusta, there is no doubting that. However, as mentioned above, special talents can do well here. Collin is in that category - three wins in the last 18 months prove that - but what we like most is his fearless approach;
"You know, experience never hurts. Shoot, I wish I had played here 15, 20 times, however many times they have played it. I wish I had that knowledge, but I don't. That's going to grow over the years I keep coming back and I keep playing, but for now I have to feel like I can still compete with these guys. It's not like I'm behind the 8‑ball already and I have a disadvantage. On Thursday, we all start at even par."
Yes, results haven't matched his blistering summer form, but a closer look shows his game isn't that far off. In his penultimate start at the CJ Cup he ranked 3rd for SG: Approach, 20th SG: Around the greens and 8th for par 5 performance. In his last start at ZOZO, he ranked 3rd SG: Around the green. Collin summed up in his interview yesterday exactly why you have to sometimes look past the results;
"My results since the PGA have been a little struggling, but that doesn't mean the golf game and mental side isn't where I want it to be. It's an up‑and‑down game, golf is, but it's a lot of fun."
Lets not forget Collin is ranked 4th in the world, was the 2nd best iron player on tour last season, and the 6th best performers on par 5's - two key ingredients for success here. 30/1 with 10 places available should be snapped up.
Bubba Watson - 30/1 @ William Hill (9 places)
We considered picking Patrick Reed for this fourth spot given his recent form and champion display in 2018, but Bubba narrowly gets the nod. The two time Masters champ is revitalised after a run of missed cuts in the summer and arrives with form figures of 4-7-31-16-18.
It almost seems too obvious a selection but when something is staring you right in the face you can't ignore it. Bubba absolutely adores Augusta, which is perfect for his swashbuckling style. He can use his shot shape to work the slopes and won't find a better course to use his creativity. It fits his eye and if you're one for trends you can't do a lot better than his performances on even years - 5th in 2018, 37th in 2016 (how disappointing) and of course 1st in 2014 and 2012!
Stats wise he fits the bill too - this season he ranks 12th for Par 5 scoring, 9th for SG: Approach, 59th for SG: Around the green and 30th for driving distance. In his penultimate start at the CJ Cup he ranked 4th SG: Approach, 16th SG: Around the greens and 3rd par 5 scoring. It would be a surprise not to see Bubba go well again.
Cameron Smith - 80/1 @ 888Sport (7 places)
Cameron has been playing remarkably consistent golf over the past month and he is following a very similar trend to when he won the Sony Open earlier in the year. That win came after a two week break which was preceded by good form, the same scenario which presents itself here. He's crept into the world's top 50 and whether you take the 80s for 7 places or 66s for 11 places (Skybet), he's a sound each way bet.
In addition to his fine recent form, he's played three times at the Masters and made the cut every time. He boasts a 5th place finish in 2018 so we know he can handle the test.
Those who believe in biorhythm can point to the fact Smith is a proven end of year performer having twice won the Australian PGA at the start of December and also recorded a runner-up spot at the Australian Open in 2016.
Si Woo Kim - 150/1 @ Bet365 (8 places)
Let's start with the positives for Si Woo. Other than a missed cut on his first appearance in 2017, he's posted consecutive top 25 finishes at The Masters. It's notable that his first four rounds at August were all over par, posting a cumulative score of +16. However, he appears to have cracked Augusta, having played his last six rounds in par or better and recording a cumulative score of -10.
His recent form is also encouraging. He was unfortunate to miss the cut last week on the number but prior to that he'd posted a 17th place at the CJ Cup and an 8th at the Shriners Hospitals For Children Open. His three career wins to date have all been proceeded by a mixture of mixed cuts and good finishes and it's this combination which attracts us to him.
Looking at his stats, a good week feels close as he ranked 4th SG: Approach at the Shriners, 1st SG: Around The Green at the CJ Cup and was excellent SG: Off The Tee last time out in Houston (he would have ranked in the top 15 had he continued his average through four rounds). His putting has been up and down but we are willing to roll the dice given the odds on offer and the fact he's a former Players Championship winner. All the pieces of the puzzle are there, it's just a question of will he put them together?
Specials bets
3pts Rickie Fowler to win Rd1 3 ball (10/11 @BetVictor)
Rickie doesn't have the best recent form but he does possess a rock solid recent Masters record. He's up against Danny Willett, who has missed every cut here since his Masters win and withdrew from the Houston Open after shooting a 77 last week. The third member of the group is amateur John Augenstein who is making his debut and likely to struggle with the rigours of Augusta.
2pts Rafa Cabrera Bello to win Rd1 3 ball (13/8 @Bet365)
Like Fowler, Rafa has a solid record at Augusta. His recent form is up and down but his opening rounds in his last four events have been 68-72-68-71 so we aren't overly concerned about his ability to post a good score here. He is up against Mike Weir who has done well on the Champions Tour this season but will struggle with the length of the course this week. His other opponent is Matt Wallace. Wallace played well in Scotland a few weeks back but was off the boil in his last start in Italy and struggled on his Masters debut last year.
1pt Bryson DeChambeau to birdie every par 5 in opening round (7/1 @Skybet)
We were surprised to see odds this big given this bet landed in 2019. Bryson is now a different player and with his length off the tee meaning he will face only a short iron into each of the par 5s this week. He recorded nine birdies on the par 5s in 2019 but we see him getting closer to 12 this week and with that in mind, the 7s is worth a small bet. There is a risk that one bad shot could ruin this bet but four good tee shots should see it land.
0.5pts e/w Bernd Wiesberger Top Continental European (10/1 @ bet365 - 1/3 1,2,3)
0.5pts e/w Viktor Perez Top Continental European (11/1 @ bet365 - 1/3 1,2,3)
Jon Rahm is massive favourite to win this market but given Bet365 are offering three places its worth putting small bets on Wiesberger and Perez given the rest of the competitors are opposable. It's not inconceivable that one of these two pip Rahm this week but they both have good place claims even if they don't. Wiesberger has a steady Masters record and will enjoy the softer conditions this week. Viktor Perez is a debutant but has Rory McIlroy's old caddie, JP Fitzgerald, on the bag and Fitzgerald will be able to guide him round.
