Starts: 4th November 2021
Course: El Camaleon Golf Club, Mexico
Length: 7,017 yards
2020 Champion: Viktor Hovland
Overall Profit/Loss: -18pts
Pre-Event Bets: -11.5pts
1.25pts EW Gary Woodland 60/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-8)
1pt EW Russell Knox 90/1 @ 10bet/Sport Nation/Mansion Bet (1/4 1-5)
0.75pts EW Graeme McDowell 150/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-8)
0.5pts EW Dylan Frittelli 140/1 @ Bet365 (1/4 1-6)
0.5pts EW James Hahn 200/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-8)
0.5pts EW Nate Lashley 200/1 @ William Hill (1/5 1-8)
1.25pts Kramer Hickok TOP 20 FINISH 8/1 @ Betfred
1.25pts Camilo Villegas TOP 20 FINISH 9/1 @ Betfair
In-Play Bets: -6.5pts
5 November 2021(-3pts)
0.5pts EW Adam Long 80/1 @ Unibet (1/5 1-5)
0.5pts EW Gary Woodland 80/1 @ Bet Victor (1/5 1-5)
0.5pts EW Thomas Detry 150/1 @ Skybet (1/4 1-5)
6 November 2021(-3.5pts)
0.75pts EW Michael Thompson 66/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-4)
0.5pts EW Doug Ghim 100/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-4)
0.5pts EW Martin Laird 100/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-4)
Course Designer: Greg Norman
Tournament played here since: 2007
Type of Course: Coastal, exposed to wind for much of the course.
Fairways: Wild tee shots will be severely punished.
Greens: Paspalum greens which will run 11 on the Stimpmeter.
Par 5's: 5th, 7th and 13th
Water Hazards: Water in play on 10 holes.
Premium on: Accurate approach play with a hot putter.
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
Since 2013, the winning score has been between -17 and -22.
Since the event moved to it's current end of year slot in the calendar (in 2013), seven of the past eight champions have played here before (even if that was a missed cut). It is not an event to side with course debutants.
Despite the need to have teed it up in this event, it hasn't been necessary to play well here prior to winning. Of the previous five winners here, only one had a top 40 finish prior to winning.
Three of the last eight champions had posted a top 7 finish in their previous start. Of the remaining five winners, only one (Matt Kuchar) had not recorded a top 40 finish in their previous start. Recent form is important.
Americans have dominated here. Since the tournament began in 2007, the only non-American winners are Graeme McDowell in 2015 and Viktor Hovland last year.
The last eight winners have ranked 23-185-40-236-271-82-90-68 (most recent first). Outsiders can win here.
First Round Tee Time
The last five winners of this event have all teed off on Thursday morning. As we'll learn below, a fast start is important here and playing Thursday morning appears to help.
Partly cloudy with wind peaking at 5mph.
Sunny with max winds of 7mph.
Sunny with max winds of 9mph.
Sunny with max winds of 11mph.
Only two of the last seven winners have ranked inside the top 20 for Driving Distance (Viktor Hovland last year and Charley Hoffman in 2014). Brendon Todd (2019) and Graeme McDowell (2015) won when ranking outside the top 90 in this category.
Only one of the last seven winners (Matt Kuchar in 2018) have finished inside the top 15 for Driving Accuracy. Three of the last seven winners have finished outside the top 50 in this category. You can get away with errant tee shots here.
Greens In Regulation
Six of the last seven winners have ranked inside the top 14 for Greens in Regulation. Graeme McDowell (2015) was the only winner not to have been inside the top 15. Players who find plenty of greens are preferred.
Putts Per GIR
Six of the last seven winners have finished in the top 14 for putts per GIR. The only player who didn't (Matt Kuchar - 2018) ranked 61st. A hot putter is essential.
Fast or Slow Start
Every winner has posted a score of -2 or better in the first round. Two of the last six winners have opened with a round of 63 or better. Four of the last five winners have been inside the top 5 after the opening round. The last five winners have been inside the top 3 through 54 holes.
Be aware the 1st and 2nd holes traditionally play as two of the harder holes, a par start isn't unreasonable. The 1th hole played as the hardest hole the past two years.
As with most events, the par 5s are the easiest holes. The two short par 3s on the front nine (4th and 8th) generally offer up birdie chances too.
Players We Almost Backed
NOTE - These are players who we shortlisted for this event but ultimately didn't advise to subscribers. If you want to find out who we did tip, you can subscribe using the link below.
Maverick McNealy 45/1
Maverick ticks the recent form and course form boxes. He ranked 7th for Greens in Regulation on his last start at the ZOZO and is a player we think we will win soon on the PGA Tour. Ultimately odds of 45/1 were a little skinny and he was left out.
Joel Dahmen 90/1
Joel has a rock solid record in this event, having never finished worse then 41st in 4 starts. Top 20 finishes the past two years indicate his comfort levels. Joel didn't play Bermuda or in Japan, his last start coming at the Shriners. A 24th place finish was a reasonable effort, particularly as he ranked 12th for Greens in Regulation. A winner earlier this year at a similar coastal test at the Puntacana, he'll likely go well but the price is a little low.
Peter Malnati 200/1
Peter was under consideration given he's a player who can stay hot. His two best finishes in 2020 came in consecutive starts (2nd and 5th). It was the same in 2018 (2nd and 6th). Finishes of 15th and 10th in his first two starts in this event shows he can perform if in form. He was a reluctant name off the list.
Davis Riley 200/1
Another player who has shown he can hold form, Davis caught our eye with his fast finish last week. A player who has performed well when venturing into Central and South America, four of his top 11 career results have come outside of the USA (including a win in Panama). The fact he's making his course debut ultimately put us off.
Denny McCarthy 250/1
Denny was 39th last week in Bermuda. However, he ranked 6th Greens in Regulation. Putting his normally his strength so he's a player of interest when his long game shows signs of life. Previous finishes here have been uninspiring (3/4 made cuts but no top 40 finishes) but he has form at similar coastal venues (4th at Puntacana in 2018, 8th at the RSM Classic in 2019).
Martin Trainer 2500/1
Finally, it might be worth having a VERY small interest in Martin. He's priced up in this region as he's missed 40 of his last 47 cuts. However, he's a player who thrives in this region and he's always been a player who misses plenty of cuts before suddenly finding a hot week. Winner of the Puerto Rico Open in 2019, he won on the PGA Latino Tour in 2016 and won on the Korn Ferry Tour in Mexico in 2018. His missed cut last week caught our eye as he posted a 2nd round 69 after struggling in Thursday's winds. Six of his last eight rounds have been level par or better (and we're happy to write off Thursday last week). He's closer to a decent week than odds compilers would have you believe.
World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba In-Play Blog
7 November 2021, 12.40pm (UK time)
|Two players tied||-13|
The leaderboard has completely changed on moving day as a result of an extremely poor 74 from Matthew Wolff. The trio of Viktor Hovland, Talor Gooch and Justin Thomas were the ones to take advantage and it now looks like they will battle it out for the win.
It's Hovland who will take a lead and it's a position he will feel comfortable about - he has led after 54 holes three times and converted two of them. He has improved his score every day, only made one bogey and ranks 1st for birdies. He ranks 3rd for greens in regulation and driving accuracy, 11th for putting, so all departments are firing. Odds of 4/6 look extremely short though, given Gooch is one back and Thomas lurking.
Gooch is still looking for his maiden win and featured in our "five players to watch in 2021" blog. He had a quiet year up until recently but form of 5-11-4 shows he is a player ready to win. A final round 62 from off the pace in his last start shows his capability but whether he can do it in the last group is a different question. At the same odds as Thomas who is one back, he's not for us at 4/1.
If forced to take on Hovland, Thomas would have to be the play. Three over par through eleven holes on Thursday, Thomas has been matched at 490 on Betfair Exchange, which sums up how much momentum he has heading into the final round. He will be desperate to add to his solitary win in 2021 and is in position to attack.
Ultimately though we are happy to sit this one out and enjoy a final round that should involve some high quality golf and plenty of drama.
Round 4 Bets
- No Bets
6 November 2021, 11.40am (UK time)
|Ten players tied||-9|
A stuttering finish from Matthew Wolff has turned a four shot lead into a two shot lead with 36 holes to go in Mayakoba.
Despite the stumbling finish, the young American is playing very nicely and is a reasonable bet at 7/2. Fourth for Driving Accuracy and 10th for Greens in Regulation through the opening 36 holes, he stated in his post round press conference that "all parts of my game are clicking."
Wolff's off course troubles have been well documented and it's now over two years since he last won an event. He was in contention last time out at the Shriners before Sungjae Im's blistering 62 pipped him. It should be noted that Wolff slipped up on the back nine that week and with quality players applying pressure this time around, he'll need to avoid those costly errors.
However, two of the last five winners here have led at halfway and given the way Wolff is playing right now, it's hard to think he won't be fighting for the title on Sunday evening.
If Wolff is to win, he'll need to see off a number of high class chasers. Scottie Scheffler (11/2) is yet to drop a shot all week and looks ready to win for the first time. Defending champion, Viktor Hovland (6/1), ranks 2nd Greens in Regulation and he's another who won't fall away over the weekend.
The three young guns all have credible claims and we're happy to see how the 3rd round plays out before considering them further. We won't lose too much sleep if one of them opens up a significant lead given the odds available. Instead we are looking to back three players further down the leaderboard and look for them to force their way into the each way places.
We'll see dry conditions for the 3rd round, with the wind expected to peak around 10mph.
Round 3 Bets
- 0.75pts Each Way Michael Thompson 66/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-4)
Michael is currently -9, four shots off the pace. A player who can run hot, he won the 3M Open last year when defeating Tony Finau. His putting has largely propelled his challenge to date but we're prepared to take a chance on that club remaining hot over the final 36 holes.
- 0.5pts Each Way Doug Ghim 100/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-4)
Doug fired an excellent 65 yesterday to get back into the mix. Five shots off the pace, a cold putter has held him back so far this week. Third for Greens in Regulation so far, he ranks 84th for Putts per GIR. A promising player who is capable of winning soon, he can go close if the putter behaves.
- 0.5pts Each Way Martin Laird 100/1 @ Betfair (1/5 1-4)
Like Doug Ghim, Laird is currently eight under par. He too has been striking the ball nicely through the opening 36 holes, ranking inside the top 25 for Driving Distance, Driving Accuracy and Greens in Regulation. His play was solid last time out at the Shriners and he is capable of continuing that over the weekend. He has experience of defeating Matt Wolff on a Sunday and that experience may well come to the fore if he can get himself into a position to challenge.
5 November 2021, 10.10am (UK time)
|Four Players Tied||-7|
Matthew Wolff leads by two after a course record 61. He is now available at 11/2 and Aaron Wise is next in the betting at 9/1.
Wolff was 2nd in his last appearance at Shriners, which was his first top 10 of 2021. He appears to be turning a corner and is speaking confidently about his game. Wolff only hit one driver yesterday and found 11/14 fairways and 14/18 greens. It isn't a course that necessarily plays to his strengths but he said he felt "comfortable over every shot out there".
Wolff has to be respected now, as do Wise, Horschel and Garcia, who are within three. Out of the three, Horschel would be preferred at 11/1. Last year he started with a 70 and improved every round to finish 3rd. He has started well this time around and the course is perfect for his accurate game.
A low scoring event like this can produce dramatic changes on the leaderboard though and we're keen to get a few outsiders on board. Conditions look set to be perfect again with minimal wind.
Round 2 Bets
- 0.75pts Each Way Adam Long 80/1 @ Unibet (1/5 1-5)
Long doesn't need much persuading with finishes of 2nd and 3rd in his last two starts here. Last year, he opened with a 70 before blitzing his way through the field into the places. A stronger start this year means he can contend after showing glimpses of form at the Sanderson and Zozo. Take the 66/1 widely available if you can't get on at Unibet.
- 0.5pts Each Way Gary Woodland 80/1 @ Bet Victor (1/5 1-5)
Gary was our headline selection before the off and we can't help top up on him at 80/1. He is on the same score as Carlos Ortiz and Brendon Todd but we're getting a better price on the former US Open champion. The putter is the only thing holding Woodland back at the moment and we're backing him to improve as the event goes on.
- 0.5pts Each Way Thomas Detry 150/1 @ Skybet (1/4 1-5)
There are a number of players at 4 under par with huge odds available (particularly with Skybet) but it is Thomas who catches our eye. He has a morning tee time and got off to a solid start yesterday to sit at -4. He was 22nd last week at the Bermuda Championship but can better that this week. He's blown several great chances to win on the European Tour in recent years but he'll be coming from behind over the next three days and that will suit him. We saw Lucas Herbert win last week and Thomas may well take some inspiration from a player who played the European Tour alongside him.