Preview
2023 WM Phoenix Open Tips
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WM Phoenix Open Event Info
Starts: 9th February 2023
Course: TPC Scottsdale
Par:71
Length: 7,261 yards
2022 Champion: Scottie Scheffler
WM Phoenix Open Course Info
Designer: Tom Weiskopf
Hosted since: 1987
Course Type: Desert
Fairways: Generous, Bermuda Grass
Rough: Bermuda
Greens: TifEagle Bermuda, 12 on the Stimp
Water Hazards: In play on 6 holes
Par 5's :3rd, 13th and 15th
Premium on :Approach play
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
This event is normally a raucous affair with the infamous 16th known as the loudest hole in golf. Over 100,000 fans pass through the gates on a daily basis but last year fans were restricted to only 5,000.
WM Phoenix Open Weather
Thursday: Sunny all day with the wind picking up to 10mph in the afternoon.
Friday: Sunny all day with the wind picking up to 13mph around midday.
Saturday: Sunny all day with the wind picking up to 11mph in the morning.
Sunday: Sunny all day with the wind picking up to 11mph in the afternoon.
WM Phoenix Open Trends
Winning Score
Has ranged from -14 to -19 over the past nine years. Last year, there was a playoff with a score of -16.
Price of Winner
We've not had a winner starting at over 50/1 since 2014 when Kevin Stadler took the title.
Correlating Courses
Look for strong performances at other desert events such as The American Express and Shriners Childrens Open.
Course Form
Brooks Koepka won on his debut in 2015, but the following seven champions each recorded a top 10 finish prior to winning. Side with strong course experience.
Recent Form
You don't need to be in blistering form to win. Although three of the past seven champions have recorded a prior top 12 finish, Brooks Koepka, Gary Woodland and Hideki Matsuyama won following poor starts to the season.
Nationality
Of the last 14 champions, only Hideki Matsuyama's wins in 2017 and 2018 prevent it from being a clean sweep of Americans.
WM Phoenix Open Stats Analysis
We are looking for a player with high SG: Approach stats.
SG: Off The Tee
The last six winners have ranked 4th, 11th, 26th, 3rd, 20th and 13th. Strong driving is preferred.
SG: Approach
Four of the past six winners have ranked inside the top 3. Approach play is important although Scheffler ranked 55th last year.
SG: Around The Green
The best ranking of any of the past six winners is 8th (Scheffler, 2022).
SG: Putting
We've seen varied putting performances from the winners over the past five years. Rankings of 2nd, 18th, 15th, 1st, 23rd and 59th show us you don't always have to putt the lights out.
WM Phoenix Open In-Play Tips
Tough Holes
The 14th and 11th play as two difficult par 4s.
Birdie Holes
The three par 5's (3rd, 13th and 15th) are all very scoreable. The scoring stretch is undoubtedly the 13th to 18th.
Closing Stretch
The 16th is a challenging par 3 with fans heckling and booing poor shots. The 17th is a driveable par 4, and the par 4 18th is also a birdie opportunity with a good drive.
Fast or Slow Start
Brooks Koepka was five shots back after the opening round in 2021 whilst Scheffler was three back last year after the first 18 holes. Webb Simpson was 10 shots behind after an opening 71 in 2020. However, those two are very much the exception to the rule. Of the past seven events, those three were the only winners who opened with a score of worse than 67.
2022 WM Phoenix Open Course Notes
High Quality Leaderboard
Once again, leaderboard was packed with big names. In 2021, even Jordan Spieth made a return to form following almost a year without a top 10.
The Cream will rise
None of the top 5 after round one were in the top 5 after round 3. The top players tend to come through just like in 2020. Take on the round one leaders.
Previous WM Phoenix Open tips
You can access our historical WM Phoenix Open picks using the links below:
2022
2023 WM Phoenix Open Tips
You can sign up for all our WM Phoenix Open tips and PGA Tour tips for 2023 by clicking the button below.
In-play
WM Phoenix Open In-Play Blog
12th February 2023, 9:25am (UK time)
Player | Total |
Scheffler |
-13 |
Rahm |
-11 |
Taylor |
-11 |
Spieth |
-10 |
Hadwin |
-10 |
Five players tied |
-9 |
2023 WM Phoenix Open Round 3 Summary
Scottie Scheffler remains the man atop the leaderboard after a round of 68. On a day where several of his challengers faltered, Scheffler was able to birdie two of his last five holes to take a two shot lead into the final round.
Notable Round 3 WM Phoenix Open Quotes
"I feel like my odds are a little bit better if I got a two-shot lead than a two-shot deficit. So definitely prefer to be in the lead." Scottie Scheffler
"I have had good finishes, but I've never gone down the stretch into the back nine with a chance to win. For the most part I've actually played a really good back nine to put myself in that top 10. My best finish doing exactly that was when I was an amateur. So hopefully tomorrow I can get off a better start, play a good front nine and go in that back nine with a solid chance of getting it done." Jon Rahm
2023 WM Phoenix Open 4 Weather
Sunny with wind forecasted to blow between 8-10mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Scottie Scheffler is a best price of 23/20 going into the final round. By his own admission, Scheffler didn't hit it as well as he had hoped to in round three but he still leads the SG: Tee to Green rankings for the week. He triumphed here last year, so certainly knows what it takes to win in the raucous atmosphere created by the many thousands of fans.
The case against Scheffler winning is arguably stronger. We have him down as a ⭐⭐⭐ Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Rating. His performances under pressure in the first six months of 2022 were excellent but his overall record is weak. It is perhaps surprising that he has only converted 1 of five 54 hole leads.
Jon Rahm is the man the bookmakers see as the most likely to challenge Scheffler and have priced him up at 3/1. Much to our chagrin, Rahm was inexplicably poor in round four of the Farmers Insurance Open two weeks ago. However, his overall record is sound and he outperforms Scheffler in the Pressure Performance Ratings with a ⭐⭐⭐⭐ rating.
Jordan Spieth is a lively option in the betting at 14/1. We mentioned in yesterday's blog that he was a value play at 28/1 and odds of 14/1 remain a reasonable proposition considering he's second only to Scheffler in the SG: Tee to Green stats. We have already advised him to our subscribers pre-event at 50/1 and again in-play at 28/1, so he's the man we want to win.
Where is the value?
Leaders don't have a great record in this event. Only one of the last five third round leaders have gone on to win at TPC Scottsdale. With that in mind, and the possibility that Scheffler may be vulnerable front running, we think there's every chance someone could pip him with a fast finish.
Round 4 Bet
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11th February 2023, 8:25am (UK time)
Player | Total |
Scheffler |
-10 |
Rahm |
-8 |
Hadwin (thru 10) |
-8 |
Clark |
-7 |
Im (thru 12) |
-7 |
Five players tied |
-6 |
2023 WM Phoenix Open Round 2 Summary
A sparkling 64 from Scottie Scheffler has led to a two shot lead when play was suspended due to darkness. A number of players have yet to finish their second round following yesterday's weather delay. Conditions were windy and cool in the morning but became easier as the day went on.
Notable Round 2 WM Phoenix Open Quotes
"It was definitely a bit calmer this morning than I thought it was going to be. We definitely had some weird gusts and stuff. It was kind of bouncing around a lot. I don't know if y'all noticed that. But the wind was really moving around. So it could be difficult to judge at times. But it was nice and warm, so it was good." Scottie Scheffler
"I played really good. I hit a lot of great tee shots out there today. A lot of good iron shots that, like you just said, that didn't end up in great spots. I think 7, 8, 9 is a clear example of it. None of those was bad. All of them were off the green and I needed to get up-and-down to get the round going. It's golf and it's what happens out here. The wind was shifting. When it shifts from east to east northeast or northeast, it's a small difference on the compass, but when it comes to our shots it's the difference between a shot being possibly into the wind to downwind. So it can happen. You get a wrong gust. The greens were a little bit softer today in some spots. Except 3 and 12 that were absolute cart path. So these are all things to take into consideration. It's funny, Adam told me, You want to do anything after the round? And I said, Absolutely not. I'm making a lot of good swings out there and I'm going to remember that. Where they end up is to most of the extent out of my control." Jon Rahm
2023 WM Phoenix Open 3 Weather
Sunny with winds between 9-13mph. The wind will once again be strongest later in the morning.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Scottie Scheffler is the 2/1 favourite after assuming control at the top. The world number two was in exceptional form tee to green in round two and now leads the field in SG: Tee to Green. He's expected to put up a strong defence of his title over the weekend.
Jon Rahm was priced up at 7/2 after the opening day and that is the price available once again after day two. Rahm had several fortuitous breaks in the second round and he'll need to play like he did in round one to continue his title charge over the weekend.
Xander Schauffele can be backed at 13/2. The American has a 50ft eagle putt to start day three and whilst it is unlikely he holes that, a birdie would see him move to seven under par. With some easy holes left to play in his second round, he was under consideration today.
Where is the value?
It's shaping up to be a fantastic weekend of golf with Scheffler, Rahm and Schauffele expected to be in contention. Those of you looking for a bet at this stage could well do worse than Jordan Spieth. We advised Spieth to subscribers at the start of the week at 50/1 and he's a man we like to make a run at the leaders over the weekend. He has a 5ft putt when play resumes to join the group at six under par and the 28/1 is tempting.
Round 3 Bet
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10th February 2023, 10:25am (UK time)
Player | Total |
Hadwin |
-5 |
Taylor |
-5 |
Schauffele |
-4 |
Herman (thru 13) |
-4 |
Day (thru 10) |
-4 |
Eight players tied |
-3 |
2023 WM Phoenix Open Round 1 Summary
A near two hour delay due to frost meant that round one was unable to be completed. The morning starters played in very tricky conditions, with winds gusting up to 25mph. Only four of the thirteen players currently at -3 or better played in the morning.
Notable Round 1 WM Phoenix Open Quotes
"I think more than anything just the strength of it. We just don't often see 15-mile-an-hour gusts to 20 out here. Usually we're playing inside of a dome. Living here and playing this course as much as I have, I've seen a lot of it, but yeah, it definitely -- you had to be a lot more patient than you normally do around this place. You couldn't really chase birdies like we typically do out here." Adam Hadwin
"I thought I hit my driver pretty good. There's a lot of hard holes to hit the fairways on. I kept the ball on the correct side of the hole based on which way it was framed most of the time. I thought I did a pretty good job of that." Xander Schauffele
2023 WM Phoenix Open 2 Weather
Sunny with winds between 9-16mph. The wind will once again be strongest later in the morning.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Jon Rahm is the 7/2 favourite after holing a 20ft eagle putt just before play was suspended. The Spaniard played some very solid golf (9th SG: Tee to Green) over his opening 13 holes and with some scoring holes left to play, he could well join the leaders at five under par at the end of his round. He can't be dismissed given his incredibly consistent course record.
Xander Schauffele is second a favourite at 6/1. One of the morning starters, he'll start his second round later in the day and will likely complete his back nine on Saturday morning. Schauffele too has an excellent course record and it would be no surprise to see the front two in the betting battle it out on Sunday.
Where is the value?
With Rahm and Schauffele both fancied to contend over the weekend, we're focusing on those players at bigger odds with each way potential.
Round 2 Bet
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