Starts - 10th February 2022
Course - TPC Scottsdale
Length – 7,261 yards
2021 Champion: Brooks Kopeka
Designer - Tom Weiskopf
Hosted since - 1987
Course Type - Desert
Fairways - Generous, Bermuda Grass
Rough - Bermuda
Greens - TifEagle Bermuda, 12 on the Stimp
Water Hazards - In play on 6 holes
Par 5's - 3rd, 13th and 15th
Premium on - Approach play
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
This event is normally a raucous affair with the infamous 16th known as the loudest hole in golf. Over 100,000 fans pass through the gates on a daily basis but last year fans were restricted to only 5,000.
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
Has ranged from -14 to -19 over the past eight years.
Price of Winner
We've not had a winner starting at over 50/1 since 2014 when Kevin Stadler took the title.
Look for strong performances at other desert events.
Brooks Koepka won on his debut in 2015, but the following six champions each recorded a top 5 finish prior to winning. Side with strong course experience.
You don't need to be in blistering form to win. Although three of the past six champions have recorded a prior top 12 finish, Brooks Koepka, Gary Woodland and Hideki Matsuyama won following poor starts to the season.
Of the last 13 champions, only Hideki Matsuyama's wins in 2017 and 2018 prevents it from being a clean sweep of Americans.
We are looking for a player with high SG: Approach stats.
SG: Off The Tee
The last five winners have ranked 11th, 26th, 3rd, 20th and 13th. Strong driving is preferred.
Four of the past five winners have ranked inside the top 3. Approach play is key.
SG: Around The Green
The best ranking of any of the past five winners is 32nd (Brooks Koepka, 2021).
We've seen varied putting performances from the winners over the past four years. Rankings of 18th, 15th, 1st, 23rd and 59th show us you don't have to putt the lights out.
The 14th and 11th play as two difficult par 4s.
The three par 5's (3rd, 13th and 15th) are all very scoreable. The scoring stretch is undoubtedly the 13th to 18th.
The 16th is a challenging par 3 with fans heckling and booing poor shots. The 17th is a driveable par 4, and the par 4 18th is also a birdie opportunity with a good drive.
Fast or Slow Start
Brooks Koepka was five shots back after the opening round last year. Webb Simpson was 10 shots behind after an opening 71 in 2020. However, those two are very much the exception to the rule. Of the past six events, Webb and Brooks were the only winners who opened with a score of worse than 67.
2021 Course Notes
High Quality Leaderboard
Once again, leaderboard was packed with big names. Even Jordan Spieth made a return to form following almost a year without a top 10.
Very little in 2021.
The Cream will rise
None of the top 5 after round one were in the top 5 after round 3. The top players tend to come through just like in 2020. Take on the round one leaders.
Players We Almost Backed
NOTE - These are players who we shortlisted for this event but ultimately didn't advise to subscribers. If you want to find out who we did tip, you can subscribe using the link below.
Martin Laird 150/1
A two time winner of the Shriners, he's always under consideration for desert events. A solid result at the Farmers was promising but we wanted closer to 200/1 in this field.
Brooks Koepka 33/1
We were on Brooks last year at 33/1 and his strong course record can't be dismissed. Seems to be too pre-occupied of fthe course the moment with new clothing lines and haircuts though.
Webb Simpson 45/1
Another with a strong course record, his performance at Sony wasn't the best and happy to see how he starts and look to back him in-play.
Bubba Watson 45/1
A hugely impressive performance last week and a solid record here but the travel back from Saudi Arabia leaves a question mark over how he starts. One for in-play perhaps.
Si Woo Kim 100/1
Strong recent form and proven results in the desert indicate he should go well but just hasn't clicked at TPC Scottsdale so far and that was enough to ultimately put us off.
Pat Perez 140/1
A local who has been in exceptional form of late, he should go well this week but others just preferred in his price range.
Max Homa 75/1
Probably the hardest man to leave out of the staking plan and will be a huge regret if he goes on to win. Very promising results here in his first 3 starts and a big price for a two time winner in 2021.