Starts: 6th May 2021
Course: Quail Hollow Club
Length: 7,521 yards
2020 Champion: N/A
Overall Profit/Loss: +18pts
Pre-Event Bets: -7.5pts
0.75pts EW Bubba Watson 70/1 @ Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
0.75pts EW Matt Jones 100/1 @ Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
0.75pts EW Brendan Steele 100/1 @ Betfred (1/5 1-8)
0.5pts EW Kyle Stanley 175/1 @ Skybet (1/5 1-8)
0.25pts EW Danny Lee 250/1 @ William Hill (1/5 1-8)
1pt Vaughn Taylor Top 20 Finish 10/1 @ 10bet/Sport Nation
0.5pts Jimmy Walker Top 20 Finish 33/1 @ 10bet/Sport Nation
In-Play Bets: +25.5pts
7 May 2021 (+22pts)
0.5pts EW Matt Wallace 2nd Round Leader - 80/1 @ Betfair/Paddy Power (1/4 1-4)
0.5pts EW Matt Jones 2nd Round Leader - 80/1 @ Betfair/Paddy Power (1/4 1-4)
8 May 2021 (+5pts)
0.5pts EW Scott Piercy 2nd Round Leader - 33/1 @ Betfair/Paddy Power (1/5 1-4)
1pt EW Keith Mitchell - 28/1 @ Bet365 (1/4 1-4)
9 May 2021 (-1.5pts)
1.5pts Luke List Win Only - 12/1 @ Bet365
The players drawn PM-AM enjoyed a significant advantage this year due to the draw bias. The wind on Friday afternoon made scoring much harder and there was a 2 shot differential in the scoring average between the waves.
Designer: George Cobb (Fazio upgrade 2017)
Used Since: 2003
Fairways: Average width, Tree Lined
Rough: Bermuda (2.5 inches)
Greens: Bermuda (13 stimp)
Water Hazards: On 5 holes
Par 5's: 7th, 10th and 15th
Premium on: Length and scrambling
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
This event was not played in 2020 due to the pandemic and the course was not used in 2017 as it hosted the US PGA Championship later that year.
The course was changed to a par 71 from par 72 in 2017.
Quail Hollow is the longest par 71 on the PGA Tour.
Sunny intervals with a max wind speed of 10mph.
Sunny intervals with a max wind speed of 13mph.
Sunny intervals with a max wind speed of 10mph.
Sunny intervals with a max wind speed of 16mph.
Since the switch to a par 71, the event has been won with scores of -12 and -15. We should expect a winning score in this range.
Homa won in 2019 with minimal course form (a MC and a 76th place finish). James Hahn triumphed in 2016 having never bettered 50th in three attempts. Derek Ernst won in 2013 and Rory McIlroy won in 2010 making their debuts at the event. However, the other five course champions between 2010 - 2019 all recorded a top 10 at Quail Hollow prior to winning.
Three of the past five course champions had recorded a top 20 in their last start prior to winning. Of the other two, Max Homa had placed 42nd at the Texas Open the week prior in 2019 and James Hahn won after missing his previous eight cuts in 2016!
The world ranking of the past five course champions has been 413-14-134-1-242. It is possible to land a shock winner in this event.
Americans have dominated this event since it began in 2003. Only three non-Americans have succeeded here.
We have two years of Strokes Gained data to assess.
SG: Off The Tee
The last two course winners have ranked 25-32.
The last four course winners have ranked 76-97-38-34. In general, you don't need to be accurate off the tee.
The last five winners have ranked 36-18-25-2. Distance is preferred to accuracy off the tee.
The last two winners have ranked 14-71.
SG: Around The Green
The last two winners have ranked 76-4. Despite Max Homa's lowly rank in this category it is worth noting he ranked 2nd in Scrambling for the week, just as Jason Day did the year before.
The last five winners have ranked 1-2-9-28. A hot putter is definitely preferred.
16-18 is known as 'The Green Mile' where pars are a great score. Thos holes played as the three hardest holes on the course in 2019 and played 0.78 strokes over par.
The par 5's (7th, 10th and 15th) play as three of the four easiest holes. The driveable par 4 14th hole generally plays as one of the easist holes too.
See above on 'Tough Holes'.
Fast or Slow Start
Each of the past five winners have been inside the top 35 after round one. However, it is worth noting that none of the last five winners has been inside the top 16 after round one.
Four of the past five champions have been inside the top 5 after round two.
Four of the last five Wells Fargo champions to have won at Quail Hollow have led going into the final round. James Hahn won in 2016 when coming from 3rd after 54 holes.
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Wells Fargo Championship In-Play Blog
9 May 2021, 09.05am
A best of the day 66 saw Keith Mitchell open up a two shot lead with 18 holes to go at the Wells Fargo Championship. Mitchell was yesterday's 28/1 in-play tip and those of you who read the blog and backed him will now be sitting in a strong position.
Mitchell is rated a general 11/4 shot to convert and add to his sole PGA Tour win at the 2019 Honda Classic. There haven't been too many pressure situations since that win and as such he has a 3⭐ Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Rating. However, he's a player we like and if he closes like he did at Honda it'll take a good round from the others to beat him.
When interviewed after his round he spoke of how the course fits his eye and how "everything is really working" in his game at the moment. With several Major winners in close pursuit he'll need to play his best golf again but he held off Koepka and Fowler to win the Honda so there's no reason he can't see off McIlroy and Woodland today.
The bookmakers have retained Rory McIlroy as 2/1 favourite and he's the man Mitchell must likely beat in order to triumph. A double bogey 6 at the par 4 12th hole was the only blemish on his card yesterday and it was noticeable that Rory hit the most fairways he has all week (albeit still only 50% fairways hit). The television coverage stated that was Rory's 11th best ever putting performance on the PGA Tour and we'll need to hope he doesn't putt like that again today.
Rory has been poor in contention for a while now. Winless since November 2019, he's blown several opportunities over the past 18 months. Most recently, he led going into the final round in Abu Dhabi in January but could only muster a final round 72. He's retained a 3⭐ Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Rating but in truth he's very close to dropping down to 2⭐.
Despite his lack of recent success, McIlroy has to be respected given he has won twice at Quail Hollow and spoke yesterday about his comfort levels around this course. However, those of us with Mitchell tickets can take heart from the fact McIlroy was two shots behind going into the final round here in 2019 and failed to win. A final round 73 that day saw him drop to 8th and lose out to Max Homa.
Gary Woodland is the other player with single figure odds (11/2) and he's another with a 3⭐ Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Rating. Worryingly for the others he spoke of how "today's as good as I've driven the golf ball in a long time." A few errant shots on his back nine cost him the opportunity to be closer to Mitchell but is more than capable of challenging today.
As outlined in the Preview, four of the last five Wells Fargo champions at this course have been leading with a round to go. If we include the 2017 PGA Championship held here, that record is four from six (Justin Thomas won having been 4th after round three). Since the course changes in 2017, reducing par to 71, both winners of the Wells Fargo have been leading after round three.
Even if Mitchell doesn't win today, we probably shouldn't look too far down the leaderboard. The trends clearly point to the winner coming from one of the front four and unless the wind causes the players significant problems, we wouldn't expect to see a shock winner.
Conditions are expected to be sunny again with the wind expected to be stronger than yesterday and more like Friday's conditions. The forecast suggests a wind in excess of 15mph and also a change of direction from the past few days.
As well as our in-play position on Mitchell, our pre-event subscibers also have Kyle Stanley and Bubba Watson inside the top 13. Let's hope they both finish strongly.
Round 4 Bet
- 1.5pts Win Only Luke List 12/1 @ Bet365
We've already got Keith Mitchell onside and see him as the most likely winner. However, with windy conditions forecast and a few of the leaders not having been in contention for a while, we want to get Luke List onside. He ranks 1st SG: Tee to Green this week, and is a proven player in windy conditions. A win last year on the Korn Ferry Tour means he has more recent winning experience than any of the players above him, albeit at a lower level. The three above him do have experience of winning on the PGA Tour so Luke does give up experience in that department but at 12/1 we're happy to play him in case Mitchell falters.
8 May 2021, 11.25am
|Five players tied||-4|
As we outlined in yesterday's blog, windy conditions led to the afternoon starters struggling and we see the very top of the leaderboard dominated by those who played in the morning.
Matt Wallace was our 80/1 2nd round leader tip on the blog yesterday and a fine round of 67 was enough to see him take a three way share of the lead. Wallace now finds himself 7/1 second favourite to win the tournament and those odds are not unreasonable given his recent form. Four consecutive top 35 finishes, including a 3rd place at the Texas Open have been impressive. He spoke yesterday of feeling more comfortable over in America being the key to his recent success and that certainly has to bode well for the weekend.
Wallace's co-leaders, Gary Woodland and Patrick Rodgers, have both had disappointing years so far. Rodgers became a father earlier in the year but 8 missed cuts from 13 starts tells its own story. Woodland was another who played well at the Texas Open but it has been a quiet year too by his standards.
Rory McIlroy finds himself 9/2 favourite at the bookies after a 66. An excellent day with his irons was enough to see him score well but it remains a concern that he is wayward off the tee. He spoke in his post round press conference about trying to switch to only hitting fades off the tee but he's clearly still in a transitional period. A driving accuracy rank of 150th after the opening two rounds isn't surprising.
Conditions are expected to be sunny again with the wind again kicking up in the afternoon. It won't be quite as breezy as yesterday but it is still expected to max at around 14mph.
As we mentioned in the preview, four of the past five winners here have been in the top 5 at halfway. With that in mind, we have one outright play and we are going back to the well with a 3rd round leader bet.
Round 3 Bets
- 1pt Each Way Keith Mitchell 28/1 @ Bet365 (1/4 1-4)
Keith's long game has been excellent this week, rankig 2nd for SG: Off The Tee and 12th for SG: Approach. An 8th place finish last year shows us just how much he likes this course and we would liek to get him onside. He was impressive when winning the Honda Classic in 2019 and he's one to trust if he can get himself in the mix on Sunday. Those of you with a Unibet account can get 33/1 on Keith there.
- 0.5pts Each Way Scott Piercy 3RD ROUND LEADER 33/1 @ Betfair/Paddy Power (1/5 1-4)
Following yesterday's win with Matt Wallace in the end of round leader market, we can't resist a small bet on Scott Piercy to lead after round three. Two shots off the pace at the moment, he has been striking the ball really nicely and ranks 5th SG: Tee to Green this week. It hasn't been the best of years for Scott so far but he is capable of bursts of scoring and odds of 33/1 are worth taking.
7 May 2021, 10.10am
|Six Players Tied||-4|
Phil Mickelson rolled back the years yesterday with a magnificent 64 and leads by two from Kyoung-Hoon Lee and Keegan Bradley.
7 out of 8 of Phil’s birdies were putts under 6ft which shows the quality of his approach play/short game. After the round he talked about how much he enjoyed playing with Joel Dahmen and the banter they shared on course. It may have just relaxed him as he strives to keep pace with the new generation.
He will enjoy an early start today, as will Keegan Bradley who was bogey free yesterday. They look set for a massive weather advantage, teeing off in winds of 6mph whereas the afternoon starters can expect 15-17mph.
Our preview highlighted that the last five winners have been placed outside the top 16 after round one. Looking a bit deeper than that, four of these five winners made their way into the top 5 after round two.
So today we’re going to play the 2nd round Leader market and we’re looking for some potential movers on 1 or 2 under par who have a nice early tee time.
Round 2 Bets
- 0.5pts Each Way Matt Jones 2ND ROUND LEADER 80/1 @ Betfair/Paddy Power (1/4 1-4)
With the wind looking likely to be a factor, we expect Matt Jones to deal with the conditions well. He is currently on 2 under par but at 80/1 we feel there is place value. A winner recently of the Honda Classic, followed by a solid finish at Augusta, Jones appears to be taking the next step in his career and is comfortable in a field of this class now.
- 0.5pts Each Way Matt Wallace 2ND ROUND LEADER 80/1 @ Betfair/Paddy Power (1/4 1-4)
Matt Wallace is also on 2 under par and tees off first at 6:50am local time. He should therefore play in the calmest conditions and can make that count. He’s in great form with five top 40’s on the trot. He played his first 7 holes yesterday in 4 under, but couldn’t keep it going. If he can get off to a similar start today he may make odds of 80/1 for 2nd round leader look ridiculous.