Preview
Course Info
Designer: Larry Packard
Used Since: 2000
Fairways: Narrow, Tree Lined
Rough: Bermuda
Greens: TifEagle Bermuda with Poa overseed (12 stimp)
Water Hazards: On 9 holes
Par 5's: 1st, 5th, 11th and 14th
Premium on: Strong approach play
Significant Info
This event was not played in 2020 due to the pandemic.
This year the event returns to a March slot in the calendar (was played in late April 2021).
Copperhead is traditionally one one of the harder courses on tour.
Weather
Thursday: Sunny with wind 8-12mph.
Friday: Mostly sunny with wind 16-20mph.
Saturday: Mostly sunny with wind 14-18mph.
Sunday: Chance of thunderstorms. Wind 12-14mph.
Trends
Winning Score
Sam Burns won with a total of -17 in both 2022 and 2021. In the 10 years prior, winning scores have ranged from -7 to -15 depending on the conditions.
Course Form
Sam Burns defended last year whilst he had two solid finishes (30th and 12th) here prior to winning in 2021. Paul Casey defended his title in 2019 but he arrived in 2018 with a best finish of 37th in four starts. 2017 winner Hadwin and 2016 winner Schwartzel only had one start here prior to winning and both had missed the cut. Preferred but not essential.
Recent Form
Sam Burns was in steady form last year with two top 30's but had missed the cut in three of his last four starts prior to winning in 2021. Casey arrived on the back of a missed cut in 2019 but was in good form before that. In 2018, he had three top 15's in his previous four starts. The previous five winners have had a 12th place finish or better in their last three starts, so we want to see some sign of form.
World Ranking
The world ranking of the past seven champions has been 17-91-15-17-99-32-10. Winners are generally inside the top 100 and we're looking for quality players to prevail.
Nationality
Non-Americans have a great record in recent years. Jordan Spieth and Sam Burns are the only American winners since 2013. Winners have been from England, Canada, Australia and South Africa.
Correlating Courses
The 3M Open is worth considering as a correlating course. Past Valspar champions with Top 12 finishes at 3M include Hadwin (twice), Schwartzel (twice), Burns and Woodland. Louis Oosthuizen has a runner up finish in both events. Cam Tringale has a 3rd in both.
Stats Analysis
We have six years of Strokes Gained data to assess.
SG: Off The Tee
The last Six winners have ranked 52-16-6-50-47-52. Surprisingly not a key stat for a narrow, long course.
Driving Distance
The last Six winners have ranked 16-19-11-17-37-30. In general, you don't need to be a bomber but you do need to be above average.
Driving Accuracy
The last Six winners have ranked 41-33-9-68-27-65. Accuracy off the tee isn't essential either.
SG: Approach
The last Six winners have ranked 3-14-7-7-2-3. Approach play is key.
SG: Around The Green
The last Six winners have ranked 13-23-9-3-25-23. A tough test means a solid short game will be necessary here.
SG: Putting
The last Six winners have ranked 8-3-43-15-4-12. Not essential to putt the lights out but as always, its helps.
In Play
Tough Holes
Holes16-18 are known as 'The Snake Pit' where pars are a great score. 16 is a 475 yard par 4 and one of the toughest on tour. 17 is a tough par 3 and 18 is an uphill par 4.
Birdie Holes
The par 5's (1st, 5th, 11th and 14th) are the easiest and must be taken advantage of.
Closing Stretch
See above on 'Tough Holes'.
Fast or Slow Start
Before last year, since 2011, the winner had been at least 3 shots behind after round one with none in the top 5. However, Sam Burns was joint leader after round one last year and Davis Riley who finished 2nd was one off the lead.
After round two, five of the last six winners have been 2nd or better. There have been two big Sunday comebacks in the last five years - Casey came from 5 behind in 2018 and Schwartzel came from 5 back in 2016. In general, comebacks are possible here.
In-play
Valspar Championship In-Play Blog
19th February 2023, 11:35am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Schenk |
-8 |
| Spieth |
-7 |
| Fleetwood |
-7 |
| Three Players Tied |
-6 |
2023 Valspar Championship Round 3 Summary
Conditions remained tough with Patton Kizzire's 67 ending up the best score of the day. Jordan Spieth took the lead early on but a topsy turvy day wich inlcuded five birdies, five bogeys and and an eagle means he sits in 2nd place alongside Tommy Fleetwood who went bogey-free.
Notable Round 3 Valspar Championship Quotes
" Yeah, it was a really nice start. I've kind of not really had my best stuff the last two days with my swing and today I managed it really well around here. And it was kind of lag putting and some chipping that hurt me." Jordan Spieth
"Battle all day. Not a ton went our way early. We really hung in there. David did a great job of telling me that everybody's going to struggle today, it's windy, it's difficult. You're going to get some bad breaks, you're going to get some good breaks, just wait for 'em." Adam Schenk
2023 Valspar Championship Round 4 Weather
Partly Sunny with a steady breeze of around 11-13mph all day.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Jordan Spieth has rightly shortened to 3/1 after closing the gap but it must be a tad worrying that he let an opportunity to take the lead slip. He has been up and down in contention in the last few years, closing at the Heritage and Texas but also letting chances slip at Pebble, Phoenix and the Scottish Open. Given the bunched nature of the leaderboard, we see no value in the price.
The same can be said of Tommy Fleetwood who is next best at 4/1. He is still searching for his first PGA Tour win and it showed at the Players Championship last week, carding a 76 to fall from 4th to 27th. He was outstanding for his win at the Nedbank in November last year and it is arguably a bigger event than this but the value has passed on Tommy winning now and we can happily pass at 4's.
Leader Adam Schenk held in there really well yesterday and is available at 9/2. He hasn't contended for some time which is a big worry - we have to go all the way back to the 2021 Shriners where he led after round three. He didn't do too much wrong that day and was blitzed by a rampant Sungjae Im but enough time has passed for him to be extremely nervous today.
The same issue is present for Webb Simpson who hasn't been near a leaderboard on Sunday since 2021 but he was a clinical closer in his prime and is considered a big threat at 12/1.
Where is the value?
There have been two big Sunday comebacks in the last five years - Casey came from 5 behind in 2018 and Schwartzel came from 5 back in 2016. We shouldn't rule out out an off the pace winner today.
Round 3 Bets
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18th February 2023, 12:25pm (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Schenk |
-7 |
| Hickok |
-6 |
| Four Players Tied |
-5 |
2023 Valspar Championship Round 2 Summary
The forecast played out as expected as conditions made life tough for the afternoon starters. Adam Schenk and Kramer Hickok took advantage of the easier morning conditions and lead the way.
Notable Round 2 Valspar Championship Quotes
"I've been putting really nice. Really just seeing the lines really well and hitting some good putts. I don't really feel like I'm playing that well tee to green, but just keeping the ball in front of me and really just scoring pretty well. So I like this golf course a lot. It suits my game. You don't have to have a lot of power, just kind of fetch it around and hit it pretty straight. I like the way I'm sitting right now, but need to go work on the swing a little bit and kind of get back to how it was feeling back on Wednesday and Tuesday." Kramer Hickok
"I feel like a lot of times you play a couple rounds of golf, maybe shoot 2-under, and you're like, it could have been six or seven. But it really couldn't have been a ton better with the amount of putts I made." Adam Schenk
2023 Valspar Championship Round 3 Weather
Thundery Showers from around midday and a steady breeze of around 12-15mph all day.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Jordan Spieth remains market favourite at 5/1 after a 70 in round two. He is driving superbly this week but his approach play will need to go up a level if he is to win. Traditionally the winner of this event has ranked inside the top 15 for approach but Spieth is some way off that and it's enough to put us off at the odds.
Tommy Fleetwood and leader Adam Schenk are next at around the 7/1 mark but both look short given there are 19 players within four of the lead. This event is wide open at the moment but if looking for one from the front, Davis Riley looks best priced at 10/1. He was high on our shortlist pre-event and his approach play went up a notch yesterday to match his quality putting.
Where is the value?
After round two, five of the last six winners have been 2nd or better, so we don't want to be looking too far down the leaderboard.
Round 3 Bets
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17th February 2023, 10:35am (UK time)
| Player | Total |
|---|
| Jaeger |
-5 |
| Brehm |
-5 |
| Schenk |
-5 |
| Three Players Tied |
-4 |
2023 Valspar Championship Round 1 Summary
Copperhead showed it's teeth again as no one was able to better 66. The morning starters had the best of the scores with five of the top six starting early. Jordan Spieth has got off to a strong start and lurks one behind the leaders.
Notable Round 1 Valspar Championship Quotes
"No, I'm not comfortable out there at all, but I don't think anybody really is. Maybe Sam Burns. He's won it a couple times. But I think it's a good test of golf. Golf's not supposed to be easy, I don't think, and the course does a good job of making you think." Ryan Brehm
"Just putted really well. Fortunate on the last hole. I hit a bunker shot that hit the pin. Probably going to go eight feet by and ended up only four feet or six feet, whatever it was. So some good fortune, some good golf. Not a lot could have gone that much better. So it's one those rounds that could have been 1-, 2-under par that ended up 5-under par." Adam Schenk
2023 Valspar Championship Round 2 Weather
Sunny intervals. The wind looks set to play it's part today, starting at 6mp in the morning and rising to 15mph in the afternoon.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Jordan Spieth (6/1) and Justin Thomas (9/1) still head the market but we can't entertain those prices given they have the tougher afternoon conditions today. Spieth led the field for putting and his tee to green stats weren't particularly impressive. Thomas drove the ball well but his work around the greens built his scorecard.
There are six players in the range of 10/1 to 18/1 including defending champion Sam Burns and Tommy Fleetwood. The Englishman would be preferred out of the two, a nice early tee time and all parts of his game in good shape. Like Spieth, Burns putter was the main contributor to his score.
Where is the value?
With five of the top six playing in the morning Yesterday, and the wind due to pick up later this afternoon, morning starters in round two are preferred.
Round 2 Bets
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