Event Info
Starts: 2nd September 2021
Course: East Lake Golf Club, GA
Par: 70
Length: 7,346 yards
2020 Champion: Dustin Johnson
Results
Overall Profit/Loss: -8.5pts
Pre-Event Bets: -6pts
1pt Win Only Justin Thomas (Tour Championship Winner) 18/1 @ Skybet
1pt Win Only Dustin Johnson (Tour Championship Winner) 25/1 @ Skybet
1pt Each Way Joaquin Niemann (72 hole strokeplay) 45/1 @ Betfred (1/5 1-5)
2pts Win Only Jon Rahm First Round Leader 7/1 @ Bet365
In-Play Bets: -2.5pts
4 September 2021(-2.5pts)
2.5pts Hideki Matsuyama to beat Patrick Reed 10/11 @ Skybet
Preview
Course Info
Designer: Donald Ross
Used Since: 2004
Fairways: Average (thick rough)
Greens: Bermudagrass
Water Hazards: On 1 hole
Par 5's: 6th and 18th
Premium on: Driving
Significant Info
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
There is no cut this week as it is a limited field.
All 30 players will start the 72-hole event on Friday with a handicap based on their position in the FedEx Cup standings through last Sunday's BMW Championship.
PLEASE NOTE: Bookmakers are running two different markets this week. The main market is Tour Championship winner which takes into account the handicap start. The other market is being called "Tour Championship without FedEx Cup strokes". This market is the lowest 72-hole score. Be careful when placing bets that you are betting on the right market.
Weather
Thursday
Sunny and max wind of 6mph.
Friday
Sunny and max wind of 8mph.
Saturday
Sunny and max wind of 5mph.
Sunday
Sunny and max wind of 7mph.
Trends
Winning Score
Since the format changed in 2019, we have seen winning scores of -18 and -21.
Handicap
Rory McIlroy won in 2019 when starting with a five shot handicap. Dustin Johnson led from start to finish last year.
Recent Form
Both winners since 2019 recorded top 20 finishes at the BMW Championship the week before.
World Ranking
Since the new handicap system was introduced in 2019, the world ranking of the winners has been 3rd and 1st.
Stats Analysis
Three of the last five winners were ranked 1st for strokes gained: off the tee. The other winners, Tiger Woods and Dustin Johnson, were 6th and 7th.
The last five winners were all inside the top 10 for strokes gained: tee to green. East Lake is a complete ball strikers course.
The last five winners have all been in the top 12 for strokes gained: putting and strokes gained: around the green.
In Play
Birdie Holes
The par 5's (6th and 18th), are the easiest holes. The par 3 11th played as the easiest hole in 2020 outside the par 5s.
Fast or Slow Start
Eight of the last eleven winners have been 1st after the 3rd round, and none have been outside the top 3. This is a tough course to play catch up.
In-play
Tour Championship In-Play Blog
5th September 2021, 08.15am (UK time)
Player | Total |
---|---|
Cantlay | -20 |
Rahm | -18 |
Thomas | -15 |
Given his recent putting exploits, it was fitting that Patrick Cantlay holed a 23ft birdie putt at his final hole of round three to extend his lead to two shots at the Tour Championship.
The American putted superbly last week on his way to winning the BMW Championship and has turned into a more than competent closer. He's 4/5 to win from here and it's hard to confidently back against him.
Jon Rahm continues to be the man chasing Cantlay but he struggled with his approach play for the 2nd day in a row. He's rated as a 6/4 shot but will need to play better to overturn the deficit. Despite his poor iron play so far this week, he's outscored Cantlay by two shots over the first three rounds and can't be written off.
Justin Thomas (12/1) bogeyed the last yesterday and now has much ground to make up. The world number 6 has won his last couple of tournaments with excellent final rounds, so he shouldn't be written off completely. However, he'll likely need help from the leaders to win. We backed Thomas pre-event so we're hoping he does have a strong final round.
The weather is likely to be favourable with no rain forecast and wind not expected to exceed 5mph.
With not much to split the final pair, we're happy to cheer on Thomas and sit the final round out.
Round 4 Bet
- No bet
4th September 2021, 3:55pm (UK time)
Player | Total |
---|---|
Cantlay | -17 |
Rahm | -16 |
DeChambeau | -11 |
Thomas | -10 |
Patrick Cantlay continues to lead the way at East Lake but his lead has now been cut to a single stroke.
The American now leads by a solitary stroke as he seeks to win for the second week and take the $15m FedEx Cup. Interestingly, it's been a contrasting performance to the one at the BMW Championship. The win in Baltimore was largely built on a great putting display but Cantlay has lost strokes on the greens in the opening two rounds. Odds of 6/4 are fair given the players Cantlay has defeated in the heat of battle over the past 12 months.
Jon Rahm is the man chasing him and given he's made up three strokes on Cantlay so far, we continue to favour him. We wouldn't put anyone off backing the Spaniard at even money. Yesterday's approach play wasn't great though and we're happy to leave the outright market alone. We have pre-event interest in the form of Justin Thomas and we'll see how the third round develops.
The weather is likely to be favourable with no rain forecast and wind not expected to exceed 5mph.
Round 3 Bet
- 2.5pts Hideki Matsuyama to beat Patrick Reed 10/11 @ Skybet
Hideki opened with a disastrous 77 but bounced back with a 65 yesterday. All aspects of his game were poor on Thursday but his iron play was much improved in round two and he gained strokes in all areas of his game other than off the tee. He's paired with Patrick Reed today and we think there is value with the current Masters champion to outscore the 2018 Masters champion. Reed has lost strokes off the tee and with his irons in the opening two rounds and will need to improve if he's to defeat Matsuyama. Reed feared for his life only two weeks ago after being admitted to hospital with pneumonia. He's admitted he wouldn't be playing this week if it weren't for the Ryder Cup looming large and we think he may start to suffer from fatigue as the week wears on.
3rd August 2021, 08:30am (UK time)
Player | Total |
---|---|
Cantlay | -13 |
Rahm | -11 |
English | -8 |
DeChambeau | -8 |
Patrick Cantlay has retained his two shot lead after an opening round of 67.
The man chasing him is now world number one, Jon Rahm. Rahm shot a joint best of the day 66 and is now a best price of 15/8 to win. Both players are in exceptional form of late and from a betting perspective, it's hard to see past them.
Rahm would be the player we'd favour at this stage but we're not particularly interested in backing him or Cantlay (5/2). We're happy to see how the 2nd round develops and look to get involved tomorrow morning.
The weather is likely to be favourable with no rain forecast and wind not expected to exceed 8mph.
Round 2 Bets
- No bet